From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War and the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region, and peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing. Baku continues to demand that Armenia remove the clause in its constitution considered by Azerbaijan to be an assertion of territorial claims against Azerbaijan before the two countries sign a peace treaty. Azerbaijan is concerned by Armenia’s recent efforts to bolster its military and worries that external actors, especially France, are using Armenia against Azerbaijan as part of their broader geopolitical agendas. – The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Treaty is ‘Within Reach’ but Out of Grasp – Jamestown
Asian NATO
(Ryosuke Hanada – ASPI The Strategist) Newly installed Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s idea for an Asian NATO is probably not achievable in the short term. It’s a good idea for the more distant future, but for the moment there’s nowhere near enough support and preparedness in Japan and elsewhere in the region for it to go ahead. The idea is not new. Michael Green pointed out the emerging plausibility of such a bloc last year, noting the urgency of collectively countering China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Shinzo Abe promoted less formal cooperation between such democracies as Australia, India, Japan and the US to dissuade China from aggression. Since China has become more aggressive, not less, formalising the integration of the hub-and-spokes alliances centred on the US should be part of strategic discussions in the coming years. – Ishiba’s Asian NATO: a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia
(Andrew Horton – ASPI The Strategist – 2 October 2024) Any attempt to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to be ineffective without first ensuring the availability of trusted large-scale sovereign data sets. For the Australian government, AI presents transformative potential, promising to revolutionise the way in which government departments and agencies operate. The allure of AI-driven efficiency, precision and insight is irresistible. Yet, amid the chorus of AI evangelists, a discordant note rings true: establishment of robust AI policy guardrails now would be premature and potentially counterproductive without first addressing the fundamental issue of sovereign trusted data. – Sovereign data: Australia’s AI shield against disinformation | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Afghanistan
(Susan Hutchinson – ASPI The Strategist) An unacceptable pattern is emerging in the way the Department of Home Affairs deals with visa applications for vulnerable Afghan women. The Taliban celebrated the three-year anniversary of its takeover of Afghanistan in August with a military parade and a new set of vice and virtue laws making it illegal for women to speak outside the family home. The extremist group has been progressively cracking down on defenders of women’s human rights. – Afghan women’s vulnerability must be a priority issue for Home Affairs | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Geostrategies
(Cynthia Mehboob – Lowy The Interpreter) Last Wednesday, during the UN General Assembly High-Level Week, the United States, European Union and their allies unveiled the New York Principles on Undersea Cables, committing to bolster the security and resilience of global networks. Endorsed by 30 nations, including Australia, the statement positions itself as a significant step in safeguarding critical infrastructure. However, its narrow emphasis on national security raises pressing concerns. The principles advise cable owners to avoid high-risk suppliers — implicitly targeting countries such as China and Russia, as noted by Politico in early September. Notably absent from the statement are vital concerns around deep-sea mining and environmental impacts, issues that are crucial for the sustainable future of undersea cable systems. – What lies beneath: There’s more to cables than geopolitics | Lowy Institute
(Kari A. Bingen, David Gauthier, Madeleine Chang – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Four leading institutions—the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Taylor Geospatial Institute, Taylor Geospatial Engine, and the United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation—collaborated to produce a “Top 3” ranking of the world’s best commercial space-based remote sensing systems. The results should spur policy conversations about the importance of U.S. leadership, the state of global competition (especially vis-à-vis Chinese offerings), and how to keep the U.S. private sector at the leading edge of innovation and atop the global marketplace. – Gold Rush: The 2024 Commercial Remote Sensing Global Rankings (csis.org)
India – BRICS Space Exploration Consortium
(Chaitanya Giri – Observer Research Foundation) During the recently held 2024 Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, a riveting public statement from Alexey Likhachev, the General Director of Rosatom, made news worldwide: “The new solution that we are being asked to implement is a version of a lunar nuclear power plant with an energy capacity of up to half a megawatt. By the way, with the involvement of the international community, our Chinese and Indian partners are very interested in this. We are trying to lay the foundation for several international space projects.” The statement led to speculation about whether India, Russia, and China are for sure coming together for a space mission. Whether this is a detente mechanism in the India-China bilateral, mediated by Moscow. And how this proposal is a step towards taking small modular reactors on the Moon. – Lunar atomic power: Courtesy India’s BRICS proposal (orfonline.org)
India – China
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) The recent optimism about an improvement in Sino-Indian relations should not be overstated. Reports indicate that India and China have “narrowed” their differences, which in diplomatic language means “progress”. In his latest statement, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar said 75 percent of “disengagement” problems are resolved. What this progress constitutes needs to be scrutinised. – Sino-Indian boundary row: Caution in the face of optimism (orfonline.org)
Indonesia
(Kyunghoon Kim – East Asia Forum) Indonesia’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have grown significantly in the past decade, thanks in part to large capital injections, state-directed loans and reduced dividend payouts. SOEs play a crucial role in infrastructure development and various economic sectors. But to ensure the sustainability of this strategy, Indonesia must strengthen its governance institutions and enhance transparency within SOEs. This will help mitigate risks and maintain political legitimacy. – Balancing growth and good governance in Indonesia’s state-owned enterprise boom | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Japan
(Robert Ward – IISS) Japan’s new prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, takes office at a time of acute uncertainty within the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). With nine candidates contesting the late-September leadership poll, the field was the most crowded it had been since the current leadership-election rules were introduced some 50 years ago. The number of candidates was a sign of the collapse of the LDP’s internal power-management structure occasioned by then-prime minister Kishida Fumio’s decision to dissolve his faction in early 2024. Kishida’s move was designed to assuage public anger at another funding scandal, this time centred on the LDP’s Abe faction, which has dominated the party since 2000. All but one of the party’s other factions have since been dissolved. – Tough challenges ahead for Japan’s new prime minister (iiss.org)
Japan – Laos
(Kei Koga – East Asia Forum) Japan and Laos are strengthening their diplomatic ties, with plans to elevate their relationship to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ by 2025. Despite Laos’s deepening ties with China, Japan’s socio-economic assistance will allow it to diversify away from overdependence on China, promoting strategic autonomy and encouraging adherence to international norms. As regional dynamics shift in response to US–China rivalry and global uncertainties, Japan’s engagement with Laos could play a critical role in shaping the evolving order in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific. – Japan and Laos look to lock in a strategic partnership | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Libya
(Crisis Group) The long-running feud between Libya’s competing authorities over the Central Bank has flared up again, threatening an economic crisis that could lead to unrest. The parties should press ahead with UN-backed mediation to achieve a resolution. – Getting Past Libya’s Central Bank Standoff | Crisis Group
Mexico
(Atlantic Council) “It’s time for transformation, and it’s time for women.” On Tuesday, Claudia Sheinbaum addressed her country as the first female president of Mexico. A former mayor of Mexico City with a background in environmental engineering, she succeeds her political mentor and founder of her Morena Party, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO. Having run largely on continuity with her predecessor, she now inherits the economic and security challenges he contended with as president, as well as the fallout from a massive overhaul to the judicial system that became law in September. – Experts react: Claudia Sheinbaum is Mexico’s new president. Here’s what to expect. – Atlantic Council
Middle East
(Bilal Y. Saab – Chatham House) No matter how deep Hezbollah’s bench is, the killing of its top leader Hassan Nasrallah following an Israeli airstrike against the southern suburbs of Beirut is a devastating blow to the organization – undoubtedly the worst in its history. Hezbollah has navigated moments of peril since its inception in 1982. It fought Israel, one of the world’s mightiest armies, for more than 18 years to liberate southern Lebanon, finally achieved in 2000. – Hezbollah faces an uncertain future after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(INSS) Since the Swords of Iron war outbreak, the Institute for National Security Studies regularly conducts public opinion surveys to examine national resilience and public trust trends. This time, we conducted a quick survey following the events in the Northern Arena. – Swords of Iron Survey Results – September 2024, Part B: Following the Events in the Northern Arena | INSS
(Matthew Levitt – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Hezbollah, the formidable Shia militia in Lebanon that for years posed the most imminent and strategic threat to Israel, is suddenly a shadow of its former self. Within days, a spectacular series of Israeli intelligence and military manoeuvres severely degraded Hezbollah’s fighting capacity and dismantled its leadership cadre. – After Hezbollah’s Miscalculations, It Has Lost Much of Its Power | The Washington Institute
(Council on Foreign Relations) As the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks approaches, panelists discuss U.S. policy options regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, including the administration’s proposed peace deal and the ramifications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. – One Year Later: U.S. Policy Options in the Israel-Hamas War | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Atlantic Council) Early on Tuesday, Israel announced that it was launching a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon. This follows Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, including in Beirut, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday. Nearly a year into the conflict that began with the Hamas terror attack of October 7, 2023, Israel has revised its war aims to secure the return to northern Israel of tens of thousands of Israelis who fled rocket fire from Hezbollah. To answer our big questions about this new Israeli military campaign, we turned to Shalom Lipner, a Jerusalem-based nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and a former advisor to seven consecutive Israeli prime ministers. – Four questions (and expert answers) about Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon – Atlantic Council
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) The coming months will determine whether Israel’s stunning offensive against Hezbollah over the past month, which has now triggered an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel, perpetuates and escalates the relentless cycle of Middle East violence or marks a positive tipping point against Iranian-backed aggression. – The Israeli offensive and Iranian missile attack test two visions for the Middle East’s future – Atlantic Council
(Louis René Beres – BESA Center) Once Israel has decided (as it should) to shed its traditional policy of deliberate nuclear ambiguity, it will have to consider how to selectively disclose its nuclear capabilities. Israel will need to find the best way of communicating a credible threat of limited nuclear war such that Iran and its proxies are deterred from continuing to escalate their aggressions. – Limited Nuclear War and Israel’s National Strategy (besacenter.org)
(Hamdi Malik, Michael Knights – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On September 29, a little-known Iraqi armed group called Kataib al-Mustafa (KM) held a press conference in Basra. Nine masked men entered what seemed to be a mosque, and the speaker read out a poorly written statement declaring the group’s readiness to “break the backbone of the Zionists.” He continued: “You sons of Marhab [an epithet for Jews], you will not see peace, because our long-range missiles will reach the Zionists’ burrows. The enemy will be surprised with biological capabilities and advanced weaponry such as missiles and drone types HD, RQ, 4U and locally manufactured long-range [missiles] type Muhandis and Qasem” He added, “We affirm that the American evil bases in the region are within the range of our missiles” – What Basrawi Politican Is Behind Kataib al-Mustafa? | The Washington Institute
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian State Duma announced that it conceptually supports a new law to ban “the childfree ideology,” that is, the conscious refusal to have children in Russia, in an effort to “preserve family values.”. In practice, these measures are not capable of improving Russia’s declining population, but may become a new means to control citizens and open the way for unlimited abuse by officials. Repressive laws are created in Russia not only as instruments of reprisal against dissidents, but also to keep ordinary people in constant fear of the government and under the Kremlin’s control. – Russia’s Prospective Childfree Ban Becomes New Way to Control Society – Jamestown
Russia – Finland
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Saimaa Canal, linking Lake Saimaa to the Gulf of Finland via Russian territory, is becoming a flashpoint in the deteriorating relationship between Moscow and Helsinki and, more generally, between Russia and NATO. Both Russia and Finland have cut back their use of the canal due to sanctions and countersanctions resulting from Putin’s war in Ukraine and fears by both parties that the other will use the waterway to undermine their national security. Russia is mulling canceling the agreement that allows Helsinki to rent the waterway. This would negatively affect both countries and others as far away as China, which uses Finland for transit. – Saimaa Canal Becomes a Flashpoint at Finnish-Russian Border – Jamestown
South Korea – Europe
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) As part of the Global Pivotal State (GPS) initiative of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government, South Korea has increased its diplomatic and political ties with nations outside of its immediate neighbourhood. The vision aims to maximise Korea’s connections in the two vital domains of economy and technology and defence and security. This change was initially demonstrated in its December 2022 presentation of the Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasised the importance of distant regions in its strategic imagination. Europe has been a vital strategic ally for Korea throughout this change, both as a developing market and a strategic player. The former is due to its dependence on an export-oriented model, and the latter is because of the EU’s influence in international diplomacy. However, amidst the deepening and widening ties, defence cooperation is now emerging as a strategic area for both partners. – K-defence diplomacy: South Korea’s pivot to Europe (orfonline.org)
Sri Lanka
(Ganeshan Wignaraja – East Asia Forum) Sri Lanka’s presidential election saw a clear win for Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a left-winger from the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna party. Despite riding a wave of anti-corruption and anti-establishment sentiment, Dissanayake’s promise to renegotiate some austerity measures entails great economic risk and is unlikely to succeed. Yet his presidency can still lay the path for a reformed, more compassionate Sri Lanka — and should be given the benefit of the doubt. – Sri Lanka’s new outsider president in with a chance | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Tunisia
(Crisis Group) En Tunisie, l’élection présidentielle du 6 octobre se tient dans un climat tendu, marqué par l’arrestation d’opposants et l’exclusion de nombreux candidats. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Michaël Ayari analyse la manière dont le président sortant Kaïs Saïed a verrouillé le scrutin et les enjeux pour la stabilité du pays. – Tunisie : une élection présidentielle à haut risque | Crisis Group
USA
(Roland Rajah – Lowy The Interpreter) It is difficult to tell the difference between Donald Trump’s bluster and what policies might result were he to win office again. However, the direction a second Trump presidency would pull the world economy seems reasonably clear. Trump’s signature policies would foster a future world economy that is more divided, less prosperous, and increasingly unstable. Domestically, his policies would likely have analogous effects, reinforcing the economic cleavages fueling political polarisation and thus also the forces behind America’s retreat from international openness and cooperation. – Trumpian economic nationalism is not what the world or America needs | Lowy Institute
USA – China
(Vanda Felbab-Brown, Fred Dews – Brookings) U.S.-China counter-narcotics cooperation is highly contingent on the state of U.S.-China relations, reflecting the complex interplay between law enforcement and strategic competition between the two countries. Since 2023, before which there had been zero law enforcement cooperation between the countries for over two years, some progress in the bilateral cooperation has been achieved, with China taking a range of cooperative steps. Systematic prosecution by the government of China of Chinese criminal and money laundering networks plus China’s willingness to encourage adoption in China of Know-Your-Customer regulations and practices remain outstanding issues. Moreover, China expects to receive tangible paybacks for its cooperation. – The fentanyl pipeline and China’s role in the US opioid crisis (brookings.edu)
USA – Pacific Islands
(Meg Keen – Lowy The Interpreter) In the whirlwind of speeches to cement Kamala Harris’ presidential credentials, the Pacific Islands have hardly rated a mention, but on critical regional issues relating to existential climate threats and hard economic times, a Harris win bodes better than a Trump triumph. The Pacific hope for Harris is that she will deliver on promises made in the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the two Pacific Islands–US summits (2022 and 2023), and the many diplomatic visits under President Biden. The question is: What will her administration do better, or differently? – Kamala Harris and the Pacific Islands | Lowy Institute
