From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Arctic; ASEAN-Semiconductor Industry; China-Space Technology; France-Germany-FCAS; Gaza; Georgia; Hungary-Georgia-Serbia; India-Drugs and HIV; India-Joint Doctrine for Airborne and Heliborne Operations; India-Migration; India-Russia; India-Russia-Arctic; India-US; Ocean Economy; Poland-Ukraine-Russia; Russia-Ukraine; Syria; UK Counterrorism; Ukraine; US-Europe-NATO; US-Migration; US Navy
Arctic
(The Arctic Institute) Defense News shared on November 26 that Finland published its new Arctic foreign and security strategy. Presented on November 25, the document provides an update to Finland’s previous 2021 strategy. The new document mentions the growing role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the High North, in particular the NATO Forward Land Force Unit stationed in Northern Finland, and highlights the shifts in the US’ regional posture. Other topics include Finland’s commitment to the Arctic Council and sustainable economic development of the region. – The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 24 November, 2025 | The Arctic Institute – Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
ASEAN-Semiconductor Industry
(George Tan, Maria Monica Wihardja – FULCRUM) A new non-binding framework for relevant ASEAN member states to ramp up their semiconductor industries and supply chains has the potential to provide some relief against a darkening geopolitical outlook. – ASEAN’s Regional Ambitions for the Semiconductor Industry | FULCRUM
China-Space Technology
(Ajey Lele – Manohar Parrikar Institute) At present, two operational space stations host humans in orbit – the International Space Station (ISS) and China’s Tiangong station. Both maintain a continuous human presence, with each group of astronauts usually staying for about six months. The spacecraft that transports them to the space station remains docked throughout their mission and later brings them back to Earth. Meanwhile, the incoming crew arrives (known as crew rotation) in a separate spacecraft, which then docks with the station, enabling a smooth crew handover. For more than four years, the Tiangong space station has been operational and continuously occupied by humans. China has designed and developed a spacecraft, Shenzhou, to carry astronauts (taikonauts) to the space station. The first uncrewed flight of Shenzhou occurred in November 1999, while the first crewed mission (Shenzhou-5) launched on 15 October 2003. – Shenzhou-22: China’s First Crewed Spaceflight Emergency Response – MP-IDSA
France-Germany-FCAS
(Ulrike Franke – ECFR) Before the end of the year, France and Germany will decide whether the €100bn Future Combat Aircraft System (FCAS) has any future. German defence minister Boris Pistorius was in Paris in late November to exchange with his French counterpart Cathrine Vautrin. Yet after the meeting, it was no clearer if the project to build a European fighter jet will survive. A day later, German chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed French president Emmanuel Macron in Berlin for a meeting on European digital sovereignty. The pair appeared unified and laughing—possibly because again, no official statement on FCAS had been made. – The trouble with FCAS: Why Europe’s fighter jet project is not taking off | ECFR
Gaza
(The Soufan Center) The difficulties encountered by the Trump peace plan for Gaza have motivated members of the Trump team to design alternative strategies to stabilize and reconstruct Gaza. The “Alternative Safe Communities” initiative, an effort to build housing in the Israel-controlled portion of the Gaza Strip, has attracted Palestinian and global criticism for its potential to permanently divide Gaza. The Trump team argues the project’s benefits, including security, ample food supplies, and access to medical care, will attract Gaza civilians to leave Hamas-controlled areas and gradually cripple the organization. Senior Israeli leaders are skeptical that the project, as well as other elements of the Trump peace plan, will end the Hamas threat and assess that they will need to restart combat against the group. – Will the “Alternative Safe Communities” Initiative Leave Gaza Divided? – The Soufan Center
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia has proposed education reforms that would shorten schooling, weaken alignment with the Bologna Process, and threaten access to Western universities. This signals a continued shift from European integration efforts. The ruling Georgian Dream party is reshaping language and university policies by restricting Western-oriented programs, curbing foreign student enrollment, closing the International Education Center, and promoting Chinese and Russian language instruction over English. Increasing cooperation with Chinese institutions and new state-supported study opportunities in the People’s Republic of China highlight a broader geopolitical pivot. Reforms redirect educational pathways eastward while officials justify the shift as a strategy to reduce youth emigration. – Georgian Education Reform Aligns With Geopolitical Reorientation – Jamestown
Hungary-Georgia-Serbia
(Anastasia Mgaloblishvili – GMFUS) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted the EU to revitalize its enlargement policy by granting candidate status to Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. After decades of “enlargement fatigue”, the EU sought to reassert itself as a normative actor in its neighborhood. Because accession depends on candidate countries’ compliance with liberal-democratic criteria, enlargement has significant potential to advance democratization. Not all member-state governments, however, see enlargement as a way to promote liberal democracy. Since coming to power in Hungary in 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have positioned themselves as challengers of liberalism at home and abroad, with the openly stated goal of transforming the EU from within. Together with potentially helping in the future to protect themselves from sanctions, which became a realistic scenario after the EU froze some of Hungary’s funding in 2022, decoupling enlargement from liberal democracy also served their goal of strengthening illiberalism internationally. – Decoupling EU Enlargement From Liberal Democracy: The Engagement of Hungary’s Government in Georgia and Serbia | German Marshall Fund of the United States
India-Drugs and HIV
(K. S. Uplabdh Gopal – Observer Research Foundaion) A map of India’s Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic looks reassuring until the eye drifts to the top-right corner. Nationally, 2023 India HIV Estimates put adult prevalence (15-49 years) at 0.2 percent, with a little over 2.54 million people living with HIV and new infections down by roughly 44 percent since 2010. Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome or AIDS related deaths have also seen a decline by roughly 79 percent in the same time frame. This smooth national curve, however, conceals a very different reality in the Northeast. States such as Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur sit at the top of the country’s prevalence table, with adult rates of around 2.7, 1.3, and 1.0 percent, respectively, several times the Indian average. Mizoram alone has recorded over 32,000 HIV-positive cases and more than 5,500 deaths over the last three decades. Geography does much of the explaining. India’s Northeastern states form a narrow corridor abutting Myanmar and the wider Golden Triangle, one of the world’s most notorious regions for opium poppy cultivation and, increasingly, synthetic drug production. The same hillsides that support maize and shifting cultivation also sustain poppy fields; by scoring the poppy’s seed capsule, farmers extract opium latex, which is refined into heroin and moved along long-standing narcotics routes into and through the region. Recent campaigns against drugs in Manipur, Assam, and neighbouring states have led to highly publicised seizures. Customs and enforcement agencies report hundreds of kilogrammes of methamphetamine tablets, heroin, and cannabis intercepted in the Northeast in 2024-25 alone, with Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act (NDPS) cases rising in parallel. For World AIDS Day (December 1), the immediate test for India is whether the energy poured into a war on drugs can be matched by a sustained effort to protect the people who live in the shadow of these economies. – Drugs and HIV in India’s Northeast: An Uneven Epidemic
India-Joint Doctrine for Airborne and Heliborne Operations
(Manish Kumar – Manihar Parrikar Institute) The Joint Doctrine for Airborne and Heliborne Operations seeks to bridge the doctrinal gap that has hindered jointness among the Indian Armed Forces. Following the adoption of this joint doctrine, enhanced inter-service interoperability would synergise the planning and efficient conduct of joint operations. – Fostering Joint Warfighting: India’s Joint Doctrine for Airborne and Heliborne Operations 2025 – MP-IDSA
India-Migration
(Anil Wadhwa – Vivekananda International Foundation) Migration has always been a defining feature of human societies — a pulse that quickens with opportunity and slows with fear. In the twenty-first century, the stakes are higher and the map of migration more complex. Economic globalization, demographic gaps between ageing and youthful societies, climate change, conflict and uneven development have conspired to make cross-border movement both a lifeline for millions and a source of political tension for states. Balancing the undeniable economic benefits of migration against the moral and legal imperative to protect migrants’ human rights is now one of the central policy challenges for governments and multilateral institutions alike. – Managing Migration: Economic Opportunity Vs Human Rights Challenges | Vivekananda International Foundation
India-Russia
(Harsh V. Pant, Aleksei Zakharov – Observer Research Foundation) Russian president Vladimir Putin is expected to visit New Delhi on December 5–6. This will be his first trip to India in four years, marking the restoration of regular India-Russia summits. The agenda of the upcoming summit is quite extensive, covering a wide range of discussion points and potential deals in energy, defense, civil aviation, critical minerals, investment projects, and labour migration. – What to Expect from Vladimir Putin’s India Visit
India-Russia-Arctic
(Anurag Bisen – Vivekananda International Foundation) The recent remarks by Vladimir Panov, Special Representative of the Russian Government for Arctic Cooperation, supporting India’s deeper engagement along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), mark a shift in Russian Arctic policy, signalling that probably, Russia is seeking to recalibrate its Arctic partnerships beyond the traditional Arctic institutions. For India, this development presents a strategic opportunity. The Arctic could emerge as a new pillar of the long-standing India–Russia “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership,” extending collaboration into the polar, maritime, and energy domains. However, this shift also reflects Moscow’s intention to promote multilateral platforms such as BRICS, for collaboration, in order to counterbalance Western policies that overlook Russia’s interests in Arctic affairs. – India-Russia Cooperation In The Arctic: Implications Of Russia’s Policy Shift | Vivekananda International Foundation
India-US
(Sanjay Pulipaka – Observer Research Foundation) Over the years, the Indian government has been making persistent efforts to increase Northeast India’s external economic engagement. With the emergence of Indo-Pacific as an important engagement framework, Northeast India must figure prominently in the new regional imaginations. Although the Indo-Pacific is predominantly a maritime construct, it is important to ensure that landlocked Northeast India is plugged into its various initiatives to ensure sustainable peace and prosperity in the region. Different regions in India have different economic competencies. For instance, Maharashtra and Gujarat have a large manufacturing base. Similarly, cities such as Bangalore and Hyderabad have significant strengths in the information technology (IT) sector. Hyderabad also has a vibrant pharmaceutical sector, which ensured a steady supply of vaccines and medicines to various countries in the Indo-Pacific region during the recent pandemic. Similarly, Northeast India plays a significant role in India’s Indo-Pacific vision. India’s Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, in his 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue speech, stated that one of the critical components of India’s Act East and Indo-Pacific visions is to integrate the eastern part of India, specifically the Northeast India, with its eastern neighbourhood. – Navigating Geopolitical Turbulence: India-US Cooperation in Northeast India
Ocean Economy
(Anusha Kesarkar Gavankar – Observer Research Foundation) The ocean economy is expanding rapidly. Countries worldwide are investing in ports, renewable energy, shipping, fisheries, tourism, and climate-resilient infrastructure. For coastal communities from Mumbai’s Kolis to Alaska’s Inuit, the ocean is a living heritage and a source of identity, livelihood, sustenance, and knowledge. Yet they often remain marginal to governance systems and emerging economic opportunities. As the blue economy becomes a critical part of development strategies, global and national frameworks must move from extractive approaches toward ocean justice. Moreover, with industry playing an increasingly significant role, corporate social responsibility (CSR), which integrates social and environmental considerations into core operations and stakeholder engagement, can support both local communities and conservation efforts. – Beyond CSR: Building Fair and Inclusive Blue Futures
Poland-Ukraine-Russia
(Floris van Berckel Smit – RUSI) Poland is one of Ukraine’s most important allies. It has become a hub for the EU and NATO responses to Russia’s war. Over 90% of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine passes through Rzeszow airport in southern Poland. Yet the relationship between Poland and Ukraine is complex, largely for historical reasons. As Ukraine’s battlefield situation deteriorates – with key strategic cities such as Pokrovsk under threat – Poland’s role becomes even more crucial. The bilateral relationship is essential not only for supporting Ukraine against Russia’s aggression but also for consolidating Ukraine’s position within Europe and, ultimately, for maintaining European security. That makes history urgent. – Poland, Ukraine, and Russia’s War on History | Royal United Services Institute
Russia-Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) On November 19, a 28-point U.S.–Russia draft peace proposal was leaked that heavily favored Moscow, sparking backlash from Ukraine and the European Union. Several rounds of U.S. revisions with Ukrainian input have curtailed and clarified the updated, roughly 19-point proposal, which Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is set to present to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week. Putin insists on maximalist pro-Russian terms throughout peace negotiations so he can blame Ukraine when peace falters. Consistent and collective Western pressure is necessary to change the Kremlin’s calculus and neutralize Putin’s obsession with subjugating Ukraine. – Flaws in Putin’s Art of No-Deal for Peace Become Apparent – Jamestown
Syria
(Gregory Waters and Kayla Koontz – Atlantic Council) In late September, violence erupted in the countryside around Suqaylabiyah, a large Christian town in Syria’s Hama governorate. The area had generally avoided the type of sectarian violence that has plagued other parts of the country since the December 8, 2024 collapse of the Assad regime. But an unsolved rape case in nearby Hawrat Amurin fueled new anger and tensions, eventually leading to the kidnapping and torture of a local soldier by Alawi insurgents. The next day, members of the soldier’s family entered the village near where he was kidnapped, demanding he be released. At the same time, Sunnis from other nearby communities stormed Hawrat Amurin, looting homes and killing an elderly man. – How Syria’s grassroots civil peace committees can help prevent intercommunal conflict – Atlantic Council
UK Counterrorism
(Claudia Wallner – UK Counterterrorism) The terrorism landscape the UK faced a decade ago, characterised by organised departures to join Daesh and relatively structured plots attributed to clearly defined terror groups, has shifted. What dominates now are acts of violence committed by individuals or small clusters of peers, driven less by clear and coherent ideologies than by personal grievances and vulnerabilities, often exacerbated online. The latest Prevent referral data confirm this point. The system, which was designed for the post-9/11 and 7/7 era, is no longer fit to meet the mix of threats we see today. The Independent Commission on UK Counter-Terrorism reaches a similar conclusion in their report, published this month, arguing for an integrated model that strengthens overall security. – The Future of UK Counterterrorism: A Case for Integrated Violence Prevention | Royal United Services Institute
Ukraine
(Taras Kuzio – The Jamestown Foundation) A high-level corruption investigation revealed in November that Andrei Derkach, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament and current Russian senator, laundered stolen funds intended for Ukrainian defense through family-owned offices in Kyiv. Derkach established Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) networks to control Ukraine’s nuclear sector and orchestrated disinformation campaigns to disrupt the 2020 U.S. election and damage U.S.–Ukraine relations. Derkach’s long-term impunity can be attributed to his corrupt network’s high-level protection within the Ukrainian government, which meant he and his allies were virtually untouchable. – Ukrainian Corruption Investigation Reveals Derkach’s Role – Jamestown
US-Europe-NATO
(Alexander K. Bollfrass, Annemiek Dols – IISS) Between 13 and 24 October 2025, NATO held its annual nuclear exercise, Steadfast Noon, involving more than 70 aircraft from 14 Allied countries, including dual-capable aircraft (DCA) that can carry and deliver nuclear warheads. Journalists were invited for the first time, a move intended to bolster deterrence messaging and to counter Russia’s thinly veiled nuclear threats over NATO member states’ support of Ukraine. The exercise came against a backdrop of unease after United States President Donald Trump’s comments in February 2024 and March 2025 spread uncertainty in Europe about the reliability of the US nuclear umbrella. In turn, this prompted discussions about NATO’s European nuclear options and laid the ground for potential deeper cooperation between the United Kingdom and France on nuclear policy. Despite the search for independent nuclear-deterrence options for Europe, both Europe and the US continue to invest – both financially and politically – in NATO’s nuclear mission. Collectively, they are deploying a new generation of aircraft and warheads to enhance the operational relevance of a nuclear-sharing arrangement that has often been viewed, including within NATO, as a political symbol. The introduction of the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II into the DCA role, combined with the latest US upgrade of the B61 gravity nuclear bomb, the B61-12, provides a more survivable option for weapons delivery. – Investment in nuclear sharing continues despite European doubts about US extended deterrence
US-Migration
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump announced on social media on November 28 that he would “permanently pause” all migration from “third world countries,” harshening his rhetoric after a shooting of two members of the National Guard in Washington, DC. The primary suspect in the shooting, which left one of the guardsmen dead, is an Afghan national who obtained asylum following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. He had previously worked for a CIA-backed group and with U.S. armed forces in his home country. – A Guide to the Countries on Trump’s 2025 Travel Ban List | Council on Foreign Relations
US Navy
(Nick Childs – IISS) The United States Navy’s decision on 25 November to scrap its Constellation-class frigate programme was simultaneously predictable and a surprise. The programme had been experiencing difficulties for some time and looked especially vulnerable with the arrival of the new Trump administration. At the same time, there seem to be no clear-cut alternatives that can more quickly and cost-effectively deliver the new capabilities that the US Navy urgently needs. Important questions remain over how the navy will fill the gap left by the cancelled programme and what comes next to achieve the administration’s stated aim of reshaping the future fleet. Many other navies that are similarly grappling with how to meet their future capability requirements in a fast-changing world will look on with interest. – Constellation consternation: frigate decision sets US Navy on uncertain new course
