From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Vera Songwe, Landry Signé – Brookings) Africa has assets, including minerals and the largest carbon sinks in the world, that could be converted into financial resources to invest in growth and deal with climate change. Africa can start transitioning its agricultural economies to a climate economy through organic fertilizers, transforming food systems, building its cities differently, and more. Africa needs more energy if it is to transition steel, cement, and agriculture to more sustainable, green production. – Why the climate crisis is a generational opportunity for Africa (brookings.edu)
Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Over the last three decades, the Australian Defence Force (ADF), enjoying an era of peace and strategic stability, shifted from prioritising sovereign fuel resilience to investing heavily in outsourcing. With strategic warning times shrinking and supply chain vulnerabilities surfacing, the ADF must elevate fuel security to a Fundamental Input to Capability status. – The urgent need for a strategic overhaul in Australia’s Defence approach to fuel resilience | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Pacific
(Heather Wrathall – East Asia Forum) Media is essential for democracy and development in the Pacific, yet it faces challenges including rapid technological changes, inadequate funding and economic pressures. Australia’s Indo-Pacific Broadcasting Strategy, released in 2024, aims to bolster regional media by enhancing resilience and quality. This approach addresses the critical need for robust, independent journalism in the region. By investing in Pacific media, Australia can improve regional media capabilities, foster better understanding and support democratic governance in the Pacific. – Australian investment can boost Pacific media resilience | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Emerging Technologies
(Holden Karnofsky – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Artificial intelligence (AI) could pose a variety of catastrophic risks to international security in several domains, including the proliferation and acceleration of cyberoffense capabilities, and of the ability to develop chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction. Even the most powerful AI models today are not yet capable enough to pose such risks, but the coming years could see fast and hard-to-predict changes in AI capabilities. Both companies and governments have shown significant interest in finding ways to prepare for such risks without unnecessarily slowing the development of new technology. – If-Then Commitments for AI Risk Reduction – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Georgia – Russia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Bidzina Ivanishvili, the informal leader of Georgia, made a recent statement promising an apology to puppet regime of so-called South Ossetia controlled by Russiafor the war in 2008, placing the blame for Russia’s war on Georgia itself. The Georgian opposition and general public assessed Ivanishvili’s statements as a betrayal. They fear that if Ivanishvili follows through on these promises, there may be little legal basis for restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity. Ivanishvili seems ripe for announcing complete capitulation to Moscow. The intention to apologize to the Ossetians means an apology to the Kremlin and a denial of the Russian occupation of Georgian territory. – Georgia’s Ruling Elite Prepares for Complete Capitulation to Russia – Jamestown
Indonesia
(Greg Earl – Lowy The Interpreter) There is a somewhat careworn characterisation of modern Indonesia as a country that keeps on changing in order to remain the same, with the rider that the more it changes the more it becomes familiar. There will be much of this type of circular thinking in the next few months as the first president from outside the dynastic, military or religious elites, Joko Widodo, hands over after ten years in power to a scion of those elites, Prabowo Subianto. – Indonesia: Jokowi’s real legacy is an unpredictable successor | Lowy Institute
Middle East
(Virpratap Vikram Singh, Emile Hokayem – IISS) Israel is suspected of launching an unprecedented attack on 17 September 2024 in which thousands of Hizbullah-owned pagers exploded simultaneously across Lebanon. Occurring hours after Israel announced a new war goal to halt Hizbullah attacks in northern Israel, the attack resulted in at least nine deaths and more than 2,800 injuries. The pager attack was followed a day later by explosions of handheld radios carried by Hizbullah members, injuring dozens more. – Pager attack increases pressure on Hizbullah (iiss.org)
(Atlantic Council) Beep, beep, boom. Thousands were injured and dozens killed in Lebanon this week when beepers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah exploded in a coordinated manner on successive days. “We are opening a new phase in the war,” said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, though Israel has not officially acknowledged that it was behind this operation. The attacks come as tensions are rising between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially opening up another front amid the war in Gaza. How did Israel (apparently) do it? And what does it mean for the Middle East conflict? – Experts react: What’s behind the Hezbollah beeper and walkie-talkie explosions – Atlantic Council
Quad
(Justin Bassi, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan – ASPI The Strategist) The Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States is turning 20. And like a young person entering their third decade, the Quad’s time has come to start maturing into its proper potential and making its mark on the world, rather than trying to cling onto the safety and comfort of youth. – Quad leaders face pivotal chance to renew relevance beyond a GINO | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia – Iran
(Fabian Hinz – IISS) On 6 September, US media reported that Washington had confirmed that Iran had begun delivering several hundred close-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, marking a new phase of the military collaboration between Moscow and Tehran. – Iranian missile deliveries to Russia: escalating military cooperation in Ukraine (iiss.org)
(Stephen Blank – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia and Iran’s strategic partnership has strengthened steadily since the beginning of Moscow’s war against Ukraine and has progressed as tensions in the Middle East are rising, largely due to the war in Gaza. The Kremlin’s growing reliance on an uninterrupted flow of Iranian drones and missiles, plus the reorientatio – n of Russian trade to the south and east to combat Western sanctions, appear to be the driving actors of this transformation. Russia’s gyrations on Middle East policy reveal the flaws of its strategy, which has regressed into the old Soviet position that sought to maintain and incite “managed conflict” in the Middle East. – Russia Strengthens Ties With Iran to Solidify Position in Middle East – Jamestown
TAPI Pipeline Project
(Humayoon Babur – Lowy The Interpreter) The Taliban has long held international energy ambitions. Plans to build a $10 billion gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, known as the TAPI pipeline project, began during the first Taliban regime between 1996 and 2001. Now, with the Taliban back in power in Kabul, the idea has been resurrected. – The Taliban’s gas pipedream | Lowy Institute
UK – China
(Mitchell Gallagher – East Asia Forum) The 2024 UK general election highlighted a lack of clarity regarding the government’s stance on East Asia, specifically China, as it seeks to balance the benefits of foreign investments with security concerns and ethical imperatives. Labour’s new approach lays out priorities — resetting ties with the European Union and democratic partners, investigating the United Kingdom’s dependence on Chinese capital and addressing concerns over China’s conduct and human rights abuses. At the same time, the UK is considering the potential financial advantages of Chinese investments and the need for economic revival in a post-Brexit landscape. As Starmer redefines the United Kingdom’s foreign policy amid growing international tensions and domestic demands, his administration must balance economic revival with strategic autonomy in a multipolar world. – UK faces a critical juncture in its China relationship | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Ukraine
(Josh Rudolph – GMF) The Ukrainian parliament has passed strong customs reform legislation developed with input from internal and external partners. Ukraine’s allies should not lose interest now that the reform is in its implementation stage. – Smugglers Beware: Ukraine Passes Customs Reform | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Mateusz Kubiak – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian nuclear company Energoatom and US-based Westinghouse are working on implementing agreements to deploy new AP1000 pressurized water reactors, which have emerged as a key component for the future reconstruction of Ukraine’s energy generation sector. Actual construction is unlikely to start before the end of the war without adequate systems to defend against Russian missiles and drones, as well as increased support from Kyiv’s Western partners. A concrete plan for financing Ukraine’s future AP1000 fleet can be established now to facilitate construction once the Russian threats to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are significantly curtailed or the war ends. – Ukraine Eyes American Technology as Cornerstone of Future Energy Mix – Jamestown
USA
(Chloe East – Brookings) Immigration is one of the most important topics in this presidential election cycle. Former President Trump has promised to conduct a massive deportation effort that would remove millions of people per year. The latest statistics show about 11 million unauthorized immigrants are living in the U.S., and several million more people have arrived in the past two years on parole or with an uncertain legal future. Would a mass deportation effort improve the U.S. economy and provide more jobs for U.S.-born workers? Recent, rigorous economics research sheds light on the consequences of increasing the number of deportations on the U.S. labor market. This research consistently points to deportations hurting the U.S. labor market and leading to worse labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers. – The labor market impact of deportations (brookings.edu)
USA – Europe
(Kristine Berzina – GMF) America’s allies watch US presidential campaigns to gauge how US politics will affect them, and typically they are disappointed when foreign policy is given short shrift. But alliances and Russia’s war in Ukraine were major areas of focus at the September 10 debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, and they will remain core policy issues in this election. For allies wondering whether European security matters in this US election, the debate’s answer is a resounding “yes”. But the candidates have different views of Europe’s role. – Two Views of Europe: Transatlantic Security Looms Large in the Trump-Harris Debate | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
USA – Russia
(Council on Foreign Relations) Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at CFR, and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the future of U.S. policy toward Russia and the risks posed by heightened tensions between two nuclear powers. – The Russia Challenge, With Liana Fix and Thomas Graham (Election 2024, Episode 1) | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – Yemen
(Allison Minor – Brookings) The Houthis—a minor armed group from Yemen—have succeeded in upending global maritime commerce through the Red Sea, driving up the cost of goods globally and dampening global GDP, including in the United States. And there is little the United States can do about it. The United States is battling the Houthis in what officials have called the largest naval battle since World War II, but the Houthi threat is only increasing. – Learning from the United States’ failure to prevent the Yemen war (brookings.edu)
