From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Bangladesh; China-Iran; Hanoi Convention; Iraq; Muslim Brotherhood; Russia-Ukraine; Sudan; Ukraine; US-Iraq-Iran
Bangladesh
(Atlantic Council) On Monday, the International Crimes Tribunal based in Dhaka sentenced former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for her role in the government’s deadly crackdown on student-led protests in July 2024. Having fled to India last year, Hasina was sentenced in absentia. So, what impact will the decision have on Bangladeshis’ efforts to turn the page on Hasina’s fifteen-year rule? – Experts react: Sheikh Hasina has been sentenced to death in absentia. What does this mean for Bangladesh’s future? – Atlantic Council
China – Iran
(Assaf Orion, Jacob Sanchez – The Washington Institute) China’s relations with Iran were recently tested during the twelve-day Israel-Iran war and the US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. While China’s diplomatic statements supported Iran verbally, they did little else. Chinese media reports covered the Iranian minister of defense’s visit to Beijing in June and mentioned the possible supply of air defense systems and fighter jets to Tehran, although China denied the former. As Beijing is typically cautious in its security, defense, and military cooperation with Iran, most public attention in the West and the Middle East tends to focus on Chinese-Iranian relations in energy, trade, economy, infrastructure, and diplomacy. Publications addressing their security relations usually emphasize surveillance systems supplied to Iran, joint military and naval exercises, and the ongoing transfer of technological components and materials to Iran’s defense industry. In the aftermath of the war, one may also expect to see sharing of techno-operational learning between China and Iran, possibly involving their other network partners, Russia and North Korea. – Seven Sons and Mullahs: Chinese-Iranian Defense-Linked Academic Collaboration | The Washington Institute
Hanoi Convention
(Heena Makhija, Arshia Roy – Observer Research Foundation) At the signing ceremony of the United Nations Convention against Cybercrime held on 25–26 October, 72 states signed the ‘Hanoi Convention’. The treaty criminalising cybercrime has shifted the focus back to the exigencies and challenges facing global cyberspace governance. Adopted by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on 24 December 2024, the Convention has been hailed as a triumph of multilateralism amid widening polarisation that curtailed avenues for international cooperation. However, such a multilateral consensus was achieved not by resolving the definitional disagreements over what constituted cybercrime, but by diluting the existing principles. While regional frameworks laid the normative groundwork for a global convention, consensus was a consequence of the influence of ‘norm entrepreneurial’ states striking strategic bargains. – The Hanoi Convention and the Contest to Shape Global Cybercrime Norms
Iraq
(James Jeffrey, David Schenker – The Washington Institute) At first blush, the results of Iraq’s November 11 parliamentary election were encouraging, including for U.S. relations. Despite a boycott by Muqtada al-Sadr’s influential movement, participation rose to 55%, up 12 points from 2021’s low of 43%. Still, the faction that came in first—the Reconstruction and Development Coalition led by incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani—received only 15% of the seats in parliament (46 out of 329). As such, Iraq will likely experience a long, tedious period of political wrangling before a new government is seated, similar to previous post-election delays (eight months in 2010, eleven months in 2021–22). – Iraq’s Election: Outcomes and Next Steps | The Washington Institute
Muslim Brotherhood
(Michael Jacobson, Matthew Levitt – The Washington Institute) On June 1, an Egyptian national carried out an antisemitic firebombing attack targeting a group of peaceful Jewish protesters in Boulder, Colorado. Social media posts indicated the accused attacker supported the Muslim Brotherhood, prompting lawmakers in Washington to call for the group’s designation as a terrorist group—something that has been squarely on the Trump administration’s radar since early in its first term. The issue has now gained legislative momentum, with bills in the U.S. House and Senate that would require the administration to take this step. – A More Effective Approach to Countering the Muslim Brotherhood | The Washington Institute
Russia – Ukraine
(The Soufan Center) For months, the Russian military has poured significant resources into encircling and ultimately capturing Pokrovsk — Ukraine’s last stronghold in western Donetsk — turning it into one of the most consequential battles of Russia’s nearly four-year war in Ukraine. Russia’s campaign in Pokrovsk has been marked by infiltration tactics, exploitation of weather, and continuous pressure on logistics sustaining the Ukrainian defense, allowing Russian forces to nearly encircle the city by late summer. Many analysts also believe that Moscow’s goal is as political as military: to demonstrate momentum before winter, and to project to its domestic audience, as well as to both Kyiv and Washington, that the war is going in its favor and that the Kremlin is prepared to continue fighting indefinitely. The looming battlefield setback for Ukraine also coincides with its most serious internal crisis since the invasion began: a $100 million corruption scandal involving state-owned energy companies, which could affect U.S. and Western mediation and aid efforts. – What the Fall of Pokrovsk Means for an Embattled Ukraine – The Soufan Center
Sudan
(Abdel-Monim Omer Ibrahim – The Washington Institute) In late October 2025, the historic city of al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur, collapsed under the weight of an unforgiving siege. The city, which has long been home to a mosaic of ethnic groups and serves as a fragile sanctuary for hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people, was stormed by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after months of encirclement. What followed, according to eyewitness reports and humanitarian monitors, were mass executions, targeted ethnic violence, looting, and sexual assault on a devastating scale. But al-Fashir is more than a humanitarian tragedy. It has become a tipping point in Sudan’s spiraling war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF. It is now also an essential theater in a high-stakes diplomatic effort to end the war, led by the Quartet, a mediation group comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Meanwhile, the Somoud Alliance, a coalition of civilian political actors, is pushing to ensure that any truce leads to an inclusive political transition, not merely a pause between massacres. This essay examines the evolving battle over al-Fashir, the latest Quartet-led truce proposals, and the rising influence of the Somoud Alliance. It argues that any viable solution to Sudan’s war must integrate the security, humanitarian, and political dimensions into one synchronized process—and that what happens in al-Fashir will be an early test of that model. – Somoud, al-Fashir, and the Battle for Sudan’s Future | The Washington Institute
Ukraine
(Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti – Atlantic Council) Amid Russia’s ongoing invasion, Ukraine is now facing the largest corruption scandal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidency. It is a scandal with the potential to reshape the country’s politics. The intrigue, which involves alleged kickbacks in the graft-prone energy sector laundered through Russian-linked channels by close associates of President Zelenskyy, may prove as big a test of his leadership as the war itself. On November 10, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) exposed an alleged $110 million corruption scheme at state-owned nuclear company Energoatom. The charges are supported by a fifteen-month wiretap and over seventy searches carried out as part of a major investigation called Operation Midas. – Zelenskyy faces the biggest corruption scandal of his presidency – Atlantic Council
US – Iraq – Iran
(Alex Vatanka – Middle East Institute) Washington is once again leaning hard on Baghdad to narrow the space for Iran’s proxy networks, pairing new terrorist designations and sanctions with a sharper diplomatic line that demands the disarmament of non-state militant groups operating outside the purview of the Iraqi state. The message from the United States is that post-war stabilization, American investment, energy cooperation, and access to dollars all hinge on Iraqi willingness to curb the most powerful Iran-aligned factions. Yet this campaign runs up against US equities that tie America to Iraq’s economy. Major US energy companies have expanded upstream positions and signed conventional and liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals meant to ease Iraq’s chronic power shortfalls as well as reduce its dependence on Iranian energy imports. Iraqi oil receipts still move through the US Federal Reserve system, an instrument of pressure but also a channel Washington is loath to weaponize to the point of destabilizing a government in Baghdad it still needs for counterterrorism cooperation and regional management. The upshot is a policy that mixes threats with inducements, while trying not to spook global energy markets or undercut US firms on the ground. That balancing act will get harder as Baghdad’s next parliament grapples with the legal status and fiscal footprint of the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF) — an arena where every strand of the US-Iran rivalry now converges. – How Iraq’s vote will shape the next phase of US-Iran competition | Middle East Institute
