From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China, China-Global South, China-Indonesia, China-Taiwan, Europe, Europe-Ukraine, Haiti, India, Papua New Guinea, Singapore-US, Taiwan, Vietnam
China
(Keith Rockwell – East Asia Forum) China’s export restrictions on critical minerals like gallium and germanium reflect its geopolitical strategy, mirroring past actions with rare earths. These materials are crucial for semiconductors, electric batteries and defence technologies. In response to US semiconductor sanctions, China is flexing its dominance over global critical minerals supply chains, intensifying trade tensions. The broader trend of governments wielding export controls as geopolitical weapons adds further volatility to global trade. While firms adjust and innovate in the face of these changes, the intensifying rivalry between global powers risks threatening long-term trade stability. – How China is weaponising its dominance in critical minerals trade | East Asia Forum
China – Global South
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) A conversation between Bonnie Glaser and Masaaki Yatsuzuka discussing China’s interests and objectives in the Global South, based on the latter’s recent co-authored report titled, “The Rising Global South and China.” – China and the Rising Global South | German Marshall Fund of the United States
China – Indonesia
(Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Yeta Purnama – Australian Institute of International Affairs) China’s warnings about telecom fraud abroad contrast sharply with the growing involvement of Chinese nationals in illegal activities across Indonesia, from online gambling to smuggling and fraud. This trend not only strains China-Indonesia relations but also fuels local anti-China sentiment, highlighting the urgent need for stronger enforcement and bilateral cooperation to address transnational crime. – Rising Tide of Criminal Activity Darkens China-Indonesia Relations – Australian Institute of International Affairs
China – Taiwan
(Joe Keary – ASPI The Strategist) Despite China’s rapid military improvements, it’s unlikely to use large-scale force against Taiwan in 2025. The Chinese leadership’s concerns over the quality of military command, economic weakening, uncertain social stability and effects of the Trump administration will likely forestall any large scale military manoeuvre. However, China will continue to ramp up pressure against Taiwan across 2025. – Still not confident enough: China isn’t likely to move on Taiwan in 2025 | The Strategist
Europe
(Manish Vaid – Observer Research Foundation) The cessation of Russian gas transit marks a profound shift in the geopolitical landscape of Europe. For decades, Russian gas pipelines were not just conduits of energy but also instruments of influence, shaping the contours of European energy policy and diplomacy. The flow of Russian gas to Europe represented a delicate balance of energy security and political leverage, highlighting their deep interdependence. – Europe’s shift from Russian gas: A new energy era
(Eamon Drumm – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports will be on the table when the EU and the United States inevitably sit down to discuss tariffs and the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on allies, including Japan and European countries, to buy more American oil and gas, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has signalled that increased LNG imports could be part of a deal to avoid a trade war. – A Gas Pivot | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Europe – Ukraine
(Matthew Savill – RUSI) European leaders still appear to be scrambling to create a consensus on both their priorities and support for Ukraine after a week of blunt US statements and jumbled diplomacy. Going in to a meeting of European leaders in Paris on 17 February, called by French President Emmanuel Macron during an uncomfortable Munich Security Conference, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer appeared to break with caution by stating his readiness to deploy UK ground forces to Ukraine as part of providing security guarantees. There is already a small UK military presence in Ukraine in the form of a defence section in the embassy and a medical training team, but this proposal appeared to suggest a more substantial force of some description. It has been nearly a year since Macron first used a classic ‘refusal to rule out’ approach on sending French troops, but Starmer’s suggestion was the firmest sign yet of any other major European military appearing to be ready to follow suit. – Europe Fails to Seize the Moment on Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute
Haiti
(Crisis Group) Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety. – Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti | Crisis Group
India
(Ana Palacio – ASPI The Strategist) Last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the first official foreign visit of the commission in her second term would be to India. On the same day, Marco Rubio held his first bilateral meeting as US Secretary of State with India’s minister of external affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to Washington last week confirmed his country’s rising international profile. The visit ended with the promise of what Modi called a United States-India ‘mega partnership’. As part of that partnership, he has committed to double trade with the US by 2030, increase oil and gas imports and expand US military sales to India. India is the world’s most populous country, home to more than 1.4 billion people with a median age of 29.8 years, compared to 38.9 in the United States, 40.2 in China and 44.5 in the European Union. – India has arrived | The Strategist
Papua New Guinea
(Andrew Mako – East Asia Forum) Papua New Guinea surfed a sea of crises in 2024, including riots, increased violence, political instability and a flailing economy. While these challenges will continue to plague Papua New Guinea in 2025, a series of small victories and policy changes offer hope of a brighter day. Increased public spending in the 2025 budget, the quashing of a controversial electoral law and deepening relations with key partners like Australia and China are positive signs for Papua New Guinea’s future. – Riots, reforms and resilience in Papua New Guinea | East Asia Forum
Singapore – US
(Rahman Yaacob – Lowy The Interpreter) Singapore relations with the United States were built on a foundation of strong defence ties rooted in shared values and mutual interests – a stable rule-based global order and multilateralism. In the Cold War years, the Americans armed the Singapore Armed Forces in exchange for access to Singaporean military facilities. In the late 1970s, Washington even agreed to provide Singapore with offensive-oriented weapons to conduct a pre-emptive military campaign in West Malaysia as a defensive measure against the growing communist insurgency threatening Kuala Lumpur. – Singapore in a spin under Trump | Lowy Institute
Taiwan
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) Taiwan is paying attention to seabed risks. It’s suffered undersea cable breaks and it has noted deliberate attacks on such communications lines under the Baltic Sea. Its response is to build a robust and redundant national system for switching wholly to satellite communications if it must. – Wary of cable sabotage, Taiwan looks to satellites as back-ups | The Strategist
Vietnam
(Nguyen Khac Giang – FULCRUM) Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, is ranked as one of the world’s most polluted cities in 2025. This dubious honour highlights the country’s need to balance rapid economic development with preserving the environment. – ‘Airpocalypse’ Now: Vietnam at Crossroads of Progress and Pollution | FULCRUM
