From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Bangladesh (Ansar al-Islam); China-Europe; Conflicts; Indonesia; Middle East; Pakistan (Baloch Liberation Army); US (National Security Strategy); US-Venezuela
Bangladesh (Ansar al-Islam)
(Iftekharul Bashar-The Jamestown Foundation) Mahmudul Hasan Gunobi’s acquittal and public re-emergence illustrate the durability of Ansar al-Islam’s ideological leadership, showing how non-operational figures can survive arrests and continue to shape recruitment and radicalization pipelines in Bangladesh through religious preaching and digital platforms. Gunobi’s role as a theological gatekeeper—operating through madrasas, sermons, front organizations, and online outreach—demonstrates how al-Qaeda–linked groups in South Asia rely on ideological conditioning and psychological isolation rather than constant kinetic activity to regenerate militant cadres. His ability to portray counterterrorism actions as politically motivated “militant drama,” combined with recent shifts in Bangladesh’s political and judicial environment, highlights the limits of enforcement-led strategies and the growing need for legally robust prosecutions and sustained counter-messaging aimed at religious discourse and online spaces. – Mahmudul Hasan Gunobi: Ascendant Leader of al-Qaeda Affiliate in Bangladesh – Jamestown
China-Europe
(Willy Wo-Lap Lam – The Jamestown Foundation) State media exude confidence about current European and Western leaders “scrambling” to visit Beijing, suggesting that General Secretary Xi Jinping will remain unmoved while seeking concessions. European trade deficits with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have risen in recent years, with diminishing exports and minimal FDI. Xi has not indicated that he sees this as an issue. Xi does seek alignment on other issues, recently persuading President Macron to offer support for his “global governance initiative.”. Xi ultimately seeks similar European alignment on Taiwan, though this remains unlikely so long as Beijing continues to support Russia’s war on European territory. – Concessions Unlikely as Xi Hosts Western Leaders – Jamestown
Conflicts
(Paul B. Stares – Council on Foreign Relations) The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. According to CFR’s annual conflict risk assessment, American foreign policy experts are acutely concerned about conflict-related threats to U.S. national security and international stability that are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action. – Conflicts to Watch in 2026 | Council on Foreign Relations
Indonesia
(Irma Rahim – The Jamestown Foundation) Lamek Alipky Taplo’s death removed a locally dominant but low-capacity insurgent leader whose influence derived less from his ability to sustain insecurity, displace civilians, and disrupt state presence in a remote frontier district of West Papua in Indonesia. His killing has fractured leadership within the area of his group’s control and temporarily reduced pressure on local communities, but it has not eliminated the underlying separatist threat, illustrating the limits of leadership decapitation in low-intensity insurgencies. – Lamek Alipky Taplo: West Papuan Separatist Killed in Counterterrorism Operation – Jamestown
Middle East
(Michael Singh – The Washington Institute) In mid-October 2025, President Trump announced that the “war is over” in the Middle East, having successfully brokered a ceasefire in Gaza after two years. This was no small achievement and one welcomed with relief by both Israelis and Palestinians. Whether it proves the “dawn of a new Middle East” as predicted by Trump, however, depends on what the United States and its regional partners do next. – How to Stop Hamas from Derailing the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Deal | The Washington Institute
(Middle East Institute) In the final episode of 2025, MEI Senior Fellow Paul Salem joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the major developments that shaped the Middle East over the past year and to look ahead to 2026. Salem reviews the key events that redefined the regional order, including President Donald Trump’s return to office, the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing negotiations over Gaza. He assesses how the region has changed over the past year and what those shifts could mean moving forward. – What 2025 Has Wrought… and What 2026 May Bring | Middle East Institute
Pakistan (Baloch Liberation Army)
(Imtiaz Baloch – The Jamestown Foundation) Mushtaq Kohi, a senior Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) financial and logistical coordinator, was widely reported to have been killed in early 2025, but conflicting accounts, organizational silence, and circumstantial indicators have left his fate unresolved. The ambiguity surrounding Kohi’s status underscores the BLA’s ability to obscure leadership outcomes, complicating Pakistani counterterrorism assessments and reducing confidence in claims of successful leadership decapitation. Kohi’s case illustrates how compartmentalized, non-public figures can sustain militant financing and coordination even when removed from public view, highlighting an adaptive insurgent security culture capable of absorbing—or concealing—senior leadership losses without immediate operational collapse. – Mushtaq Kohi: BLA Financier’s Fate Obscured – Jamestown
US (National Security Strategy)
(Benjamin Jensen, Mackenzie Eaglen, and Henry H. Carroll – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) has undercurrents of a classical maritime document that connects strategy to economic power. Echoes of the turn of the nineteenth century permeate the strategy, with implicit allusions to the Roosevelt Corollary, the Great White Fleet, and, most of all, Alfred Thayer Mahan’s assertion of the centrality of “sea power” to the United States’ national interests. The strategy narrows U.S. ambitions to focus on the Western Hemisphere while reframing great power competition as an economic and industrial contest. For the Navy and Marine Corps, that combination points toward a more hemispheric and distributed form of sea power that still has to deter China and manage nuclear-armed rivals while placing renewed emphasis on securing critical sea lines of communication. It is a mandate for more maritime constabulary work from the Caribbean to the Eastern Pacific, along with renewed attention to choke points like the Red Sea and Panama Canal. And it points toward the critical need to fix shipbuilding and field new, unmanned formations that reduce the costs of securing national interests. – What the New National Security Strategy Means for Naval Forces
US-Venezuela
(The Soufan Center) On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers leaving and entering Venezuela, a sharp escalation of the already mounting campaign the Trump administration has pressed on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro for months. Tuesday’s blockade announcement follows months of U.S. military activity in the Caribbean, where U.S. forces have conducted more than two dozen strikes on boats that Washington alleges were involved in drug trafficking. Some analysts question the stated justification of counternarcotics concerns for military intervention in Venezuela, especially after Trump issued a presidential pardon in November for former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted on drug trafficking counts by U.S. federal courts. The Trump administration has long viewed the Maduro government not only as an authoritarian regime but as a linchpin in a broader network of leftist governments that undermine U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and help pave the way for Russian and Chinese soft power. – Washington Tightens the Screws on Caracas – The Soufan Center
