Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Black Sea
(Ondrej Ditrych – European Union Institute for Security Studies) The Black Sea, nestled between the EU, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye and the Caucasus, has become a major geopolitical hotspot. It is a key arena in Russia’s war on Ukraine, but also a contested space where broader geopolitical dynamics play out, with implications for maritime, energy, infrastructure and global food security. The EU has a strategic interest in investing in the security of the sea and the surrounding littoral. Its forthcoming Black Sea strategy needs to be anchored in strategic foresight that anticipates various security scenarios for the region.
Four swans of the Black Sea | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
China
(Lt Col Claude A Lambert – RUSI) In recent years, China has stepped up its contribution to UN peacekeeping operations, particularly in countries where doing so aligns with its strategic interests. The US must take action to reassert its leadership role in this space, not just to check Beijing’s growing influence, but to demonstrate that it is fully invested in bringing peace, security and stability to challenged regions.
(Nikki Sun – Chatham House) The use of AI in Chinese workplaces and the impact on employees offers important lessons for the roll-out of this technology around the world. China places few restrictions on developers, and this environment has enabled the rapid emergence of a wide range of AI tools.
Workplace AI in China | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Cyprus
(Evangelia Akritidou, Gallia Lindenstrauss – Institute for National Security Studies) In July 1974, the Turkish military intervened in Cyprus in response to a Greece-led coup aimed at deposing President Makarios. Turkey cited the Treaty of Guarantee as justification, de facto dividing the island, and later establishing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983, which was recognized only by Turkey. Efforts for reunification, including the 2004 Annan Plan, failed due to deep-seated mistrust and political complexities exacerbated by Cyprus’s EU accession. Recent negotiations, such as the 2017 Crans-Montana talks, stalled over security and governance issues, including the continued presence of Turkish troops and Greek Cypriot demands for their withdrawal. Meanwhile, Israel’s relations with Cyprus (and Greece) have thrived since 2010, fostering cooperation in areas such as energy, security, and emergency preparedness. Looking forward, prospects for the future of Cyprus remain unclear, with renewed unity efforts on one hand and Turkish-led efforts to pressure the international community to accept the partition of the island on the other, significantly influencing regional dynamics. Cyprus remains committed to its relations with Israel after the eruption of the October 7th war. Nevertheless, Cyprus faces challenges such as international criticism of the legitimacy of some of Israel’s actions, as well as threats from Hezbollah and Turkey regarding possible Cypriot assistance to Israel in the event of a major escalation. Israel should make efforts, where feasible, to avoid exacerbating these challenges.
Half a Century Later: Cyprus’s Unification Remains Distant | INSS
Emerging Technologies
(Mardi Witzel, Gaston H. Gonnet, Tim Snider – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The focus of this paper is on policy guidance around explainable artificial intelligence (AI) or the ability to understand how AI models arrive at their outcomes. Explainability matters in human terms because it facilitates including an individual’s “right to explanation” and it also plays a role in enabling technical evaluation of AI systems. The paper begins with an examination of the meaning of explainability, concluding that the constellation of related terms serves to frustrate and confuse policy initiatives. Following a brief review of contemporary policy guidance, it argues that there is a need for greater clarity and context-specific guidance, highlighting the need to distinguish between ante hoc and post hoc explainability, especially in high-risk, high-impact contexts. The question of whether post hoc or ante hoc methods have been employed is a fundamental and often-overlooked question in policy. The paper argues that the question of which method should be employed in a given context, along with the requirement for human-level understanding, is a key challenge that policy makers need to address. A taxonomy for how explainability can be operationalized in AI policy is proposed and a series of recommendations is set forth.
(Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Apparues pour la première fois en 2009 avec la blockchain, les cryptomonnaies, aussi appelées cryptoactifs, sont des instruments d’échange financiers dans le monde numérique. Émises de pair à pair hors d’un système bancaire centralisé et très sensibles à la volatilité des cours, les cryptomonnaies, et notamment le Bitcoin, sont également extrêmement énergivores. Se pose alors la question de leur impact environnemental et de la consommation électrique environnementale qu’elles engendrent. Entretien avec Camille Boulenguer, économiste, chercheuse à l’IRIS et dont les thèmes de recherche se concentrent notamment autour des enjeux et de l’évolution des pratiques économiques illicites avec l’arrivée des nouvelles technologies.
Les cryptomonnaies, une technologie pas si verte ? | IRIS (iris-france.org)
(Prateek Tripathi – Observer Research Foundation) The rapid advancements in automated systems and vehicles have led to a growing demand for increasingly sophisticated sensor technology. This has enabled another emerging technology to progress remarkably and come into prominence, namely, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). While the demand for LiDAR systems is being primarily driven by autonomous vehicles, it is finding applications in a wide assortment of fields, both commercial and military. This has, however, inadvertently resulted in China acquiring a sizeable portion of the market in this domain, an issue which is now raising serious national security concerns around the world, particularly in the United States (US).
Deepfakes and Online Identity Verification Risks (orfonline.org)
(Anulekha Nandi – Observer Research Foundation) Deepfakes have predominantly captured headlines for impersonation, reputational damage, and misinformation and disinformation. The World Economic Forum identifies the latter as the most significant short-term risk facing the world today. Indeed, 96 percent of deepfake content online are non-consensual pornographic simulations of female celebrities. As countries around the world grapple with this near 100 percent increase in deepfake content since 2018, there is another threat that lurks in the background i.e. deepfakes and undermining of online know-your-customer (KYC) compliance processes undertaken by banks and financial institutions for identity verification of their customers.
Deepfakes and Online Identity Verification Risks (orfonline.org)
(Isabella Wilkinson – Chatham House) Amid global uncertainties on the state of AI safety, divergence between national frameworks, and strains on international cooperation, scientist-to-scientist dialogue can depoliticize, improve the inclusivity of global conversations, and advance shared understandings of the science itself.
(Raluca Csernatoni – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The lack of an international governance framework for military AI poses risks to global security. The EU should spearhead an inclusive initiative to set global standards and ensure the responsible use of AI in warfare.
Governing Military AI Amid a Geopolitical Minefield – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Global Governance
(Heather Williams and Doreen Horschig – Center for Strategic and International Studies) Nuclear norms face significant challenges, highlighted by Russia’s withdrawal of its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and the general undermining of nuclear institutions. This report assesses the health of three key nuclear norms: nonproliferation, nonuse, and no testing, revealing that while these norms are broadly supported, they are increasingly contested. The interconnectedness of these norms means that weakening one could trigger a cascade effect, jeopardizing the others. The report identifies regional dynamics and differing responses to norm violations as key factors exacerbating this contestation. The policy recommendations include, for example, a reinforcement of the three norms through transparency and restraint by nuclear possessors and an engagement of non-nuclear states and civil society in norm enforcement and pressure on norm violators.
(Aru Bhat, Sofia Eckrich – World Economic Forum) Social media has made learning about financial topics more engaging and accessible for novice investors. Social media is often one of the first landing points for younger generations when researching how or where to invest, but this advice is not risk free. World Economic Forum, Accenture and the Future of Capital Markets Steering Committee and Working Group have been investigating financial advice on digital channels to create a more responsible investing ecosystem.
Are ‘finfluencers’ the future of financial advice worldwide? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Tarini Fernando, Nadia Shamsad – World Economic Forum) A new World Economic Forum report reveals the intersection between green transition efforts and social outcomes. It identifies six equitable transition archetypes, which highlight the opportunities and challenges that different countries face in ensuring equity in the green transition.
It finds progress is being hampered by a lack of data and policy toolkits, with only five out of 58 indicators being tracked globally. From the UK to South Korea, this is how six countries are performing as they seek to balance decarbonizing with economic equity.
Global Order
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) The concept of non-alignment originated during the Cold War as a ‘third way’ for nations wanting to remain neutral between the capitalist liberalism of the United States (US) and the communism of the Soviet Union. Officially founded during the Bandung Conference in Indonesia in April 1955, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) today has 120 member nations, all of them from the Global South. Every African country, except for South Sudan, is a member of NAM. As the world moves towards increasing multi-polarity, NAM can again gain relevance. It would, however, require some revisions in both structure and scope to respond to the changing global realities and emerging challenges of the 21st century. As Uganda takes over the NAM presidency for the next three years, this paper defines ‘non-alignment’ in the current era and reflects on whether and how NAM can still serve the interests of the Global South, particularly Africa.
Non-Alignment in the Era of the Global South (orfonline.org)
India – Bangladesh
(Sohini Bose, Khandakar Tahmid Rezwan – Observer Research Foundation) India can help Bangladesh overcome its overt dependence on China’s arms exports, while increased defence cooperation with Dhaka would ease New Delhi’s concerns over Beijing’s growing involvement in the region.
‘Back on the table’: Decoding the New Delhi-Dhaka defence nexus (orfonline.org)
Israel – USA
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) The Israeli prime minister’s meetings and address to the U.S. Congress will aim to rally support for Israel as it seeks to end its campaign to destroy Hamas and beat back a growing threat from Hezbollah in the north.
Netanyahu’s High-Stakes Visit to Washington | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(H A Hellyer – Chatham House) The new UK government must act for a genuine and sustainable peace settlement in Israel–Palestine to be possible.
(Guy Lurie – The Israel Democracy Institute) The UN report paints a disturbing picture in which countries experience “autocratization”—an erosion of the foundations of democracy—through actions that undermine the judicial system’s independence. In Israel, the current government is aiming to undermine judicial independence in order to consolidate its power and authority at the expense of individual rights and the rule of law.
(Gabriel Gordon – The Israel Democracy Institute) (Israel) This study describes the employment trends among men registered in ultra-Orthodox yeshivas between the ages of 18-25. The findings are based on a reported work, or “legal work,” so it is very likely that this is an underestimation of reality.
(Mika Naftali – Institute for National Security Studies) On July 15, national elections for the Syrian parliament were held in most of the areas under the control of the Assad regime. These are the fourth elections since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria.
Elections for the Syrian Parliament: Not Free, Not Fair | INSS
Poland
(Armida van Rij, Melania Parzonka – Chatham House) Russia’s war on Ukraine has thrown Poland into the spotlight as an emerging but serious actor on European defence. Spending 4 per cent of its GDP on defence, it is one of the few European states that exceeds NATO’s 2 per cent target.
Russia – North Korea
(Oleksandr V Danylyuk – RUSI) While the recently signed agreement between Russia and North Korea has sparked concern in the West, the reality is that cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang on sensitive technologies is not new – it is merely coming out into the open.
Rwanda
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) This July 18, Rwanda celebrates its 30th anniversary of liberation. It was on 18 July 1994 that the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) declared a unilateral ceasefire, marking the end of the genocide. This was followed by the formation of the National Unity Government. And this July 2024, Paul Kagame is also set to win another election, extending his 24-year rule by another five years.
Kagame’s Continued Rule in Rwanda (orfonline.org)
UK
(Si Horne – RUSI) The language and culture around risk differ dramatically between defence and healthcare, and this may limit the UK’s ability to operate effectively. It may also lead to a focus on the wrong risks.
(Elizabeth Wilmshurst CMG KC, Rashmin Sagoo – Chatham House) The new UK government features a number of lawyers with strong credentials in international law. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has a record of defending human rights in UK courts and has argued a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
UK – India
(Simran Brookes – IISS) To deepen their bilateral cooperation in the space domain, the UK and India must sustain political buy-in and foster greater private-sector collaboration.
Space: the next ‘frontier’ of UK–India cooperation? (iiss.org)
USA
(Desmond Lachman – American Enterprise Institute) Dennis Robertson, the late Cambridge economist, said that fashion in economic ideas was like going to the greyhound races. If you stood still long enough, the dogs would come around one more time. Judging by the keynote addresses at this week’s Republican Convention, it seems that two very bad economic ideas have come back into fashion. The first is that globalization is inimical to domestic economic prosperity. The second is that concerns about the country’s high public debt level are misplaced and that those concerns should not come in the way of additional tax cuts. This suggests that if Donald Trump does get elected for a second term, we should brace ourselves for some rough economic sledding.
The Economic Consequences of a Second Trump Term | American Enterprise Institute – AEI
(Aaron Friedberg, Gabriel Schoenfeld – American Enterprise Institute) Donald Trump’s selection of Senator J.D. Vance as a running mate is awful news for Ukraine. Even without Vance on the ticket, Trump has been no friend of the embattled democracy. His policy is predicated on animus toward its elected leaders, which seems to be rooted in his affinity for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and on lingering resentment over his own failed attempt to coerce the Ukrainian government into providing him with “dirt” on Joe Biden, an escapade that resulted in his first impeachment. His policy is also linked to his longstanding skepticism of NATO and his general disdain for international alliances. What is that policy? Nothing more than the blunt use of American coercive leverage—the threat to terminate economic and military aid—to force Kyiv to make concessions to Moscow. Trump has repeatedly said that he will end the war in one day, somehow even before he assumes office. As absurd as this is, it showcases his posture.
What Trump-Vance Means for Ukraine | American Enterprise Institute – AEI
(Elaine Kamarck and William A. Galston – Brookings) The fourth and last day of the Republican National Convention (RNC) was the first in history to take place on a split screen. Reporters in Milwaukee, site of the Republican convention, found themselves, bizarrely, chasing down stories on the Democrats. On one side of the screen was Joe Biden, frail and not able to talk very well as he recovers from COVID-19, while on the other side was Donald Trump, who simply couldn’t stop talking. His speech of 92 minutes was the longest since 1972 and repeated many of the grievances he routinely speaks about at his campaign rallies.
Trump misses a golden opportunity in his acceptance speech | Brookings
(Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) Former president Donald Trump has officially accepted the Republican nomination, uniting the party behind his MAGA agenda. In a divisive convention speech delivered to Americans but witnessed by the world, he outlined his plans to double down on his America First agenda and restore the American dream.
(Chatham House) Bronwen Maddox is joined by journalists Edward Luce and David E Sanger to discuss the selection of J.D. Vance as Donald Trump’s running mate and how ‘Make America Great Again’ voices will shape future US foreign policy decisions. Joining them is Leslie Vinjamuri, the director of our US and Americas Programme.
(Dan Grazier, Julia Gledhill, Geoff Wilson – Stimson Center) Expansive strategic guidance documents written to justify and validate U.S. militarism and the permanent war economy only hamper U.S. military readiness because their authors suggest that the United States pursue global military primacy forever, at all costs – even if most major defense acquisition programs are over cost and behind schedule. This vision is neither strategic nor sustainable as it undergirds an egregious and ever-growing military budget. Even with a near trillion dollar Pentagon base budget, the military leaves servicemembers with equipment that doesn’t work, while padding record-breaking profit margins for military contractors.
Current Defense Plans Require Unsustainable Future Spending • Stimson Center
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) Even before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, American politics was churning. But after the dramatic developments of last week, it’s spinning in a way few could have foreseen. Even as President Joe Biden is getting weaker by the day, Trump seems to be gaining an unstoppable momentum. As per internal polling of the Democrats, Biden is losing ground to Trump in 14 key states, including the five that Biden won in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His numbers are shaky in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire after his disastrous debate performance.
A Shot In The Arm: Trump’s Rise Suddenly Seems Inevitable (orfonline.org)
USA – China
(Tong Zhao – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.
