From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China, Middle East, Palestinian Authority, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Southeast Asia-Kazakhstan, US, US-China, US-Russia-China, US-Southeast Asia
China
(ThinkChina)
Even as China plays a greater role in global affairs, not least through its Belt and Road Initiative, rising instability in the Middle East, Africa, and most of its near-abroad will present significant challenges for China. Academic Alessandro Arduino explains. – Rising global crises test Beijing’s Belt and Road security resilience in 2025
(ThinkChina)
China’s major cities and provinces are setting growth targets for 2025 around 5%, auguring a similar figure for the national target this year. But are these targets achievable amid adverse domestic conditions and global uncertainty? Lianhe Zaobao associate editor Han Yong Hong discusses the issue. – China’s local provinces and cities set ambitious 2025 growth targets
(ThinkChina)
As nonbank payment service providers like Alipay and WeChat Pay transform the landscape of cross-border payments with a one-stop shop for services for merchants that is cheaper and more efficient, they are also taking business away from the country’s commercial banks. Financial watchdogs are also worried about a lack of transparency and increased possibilities for fraud and money laundering. – China’s booming cross-border e-commerce pits Alipay, WeChat Pay against the world
Middle East
(Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Gaza Strip Ceasefire: The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19. All three IDF divisions currently in the Strip will gradually withdraw, with the 99th Division (currently in the Netzarim Corridor) departing first.
Regional Implications of Gaza Ceasefire: Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. The opening attacks by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah were de-facto declarations of war against Israel that escalated and regionalized the war. Hezbollah only made separate peace with Israel after the IDF compelled it to do so by defeating Hezbollah militarily.
Houthis React to Gaza Ceasefire: The Houthis also paused their campaign against Israel, which will enable the Houthis to institutionalize lessons learned and replenish arms stockpiles as needed. The Houthis framed their ceasefire pause as conditional and implied that the ceasefire is only a pause in the wider war that the Houthis believe will end in the destruction of the Israeli state.
Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey continues to pressure the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to rapidly disarm and integrate into the HTS-led interim Syrian government. Turkish President Recep Erdogan stated that Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria must choose to either lay down their arms peacefully or “be forced to do so,” presumably by Turkey and its proxies.
Russo-Iranian Agreement: The Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement signed on January 17 notably lacks a mutual defense clause. The agreement outlines bilateral defense and security cooperation, including joint military exercises and operations, personnel training, port visits by military vessels, the exchange of military officers, and intelligence sharing. – Iran Update, January 17, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(David Makovsky – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Israelis and Palestinians – filled with relief, exuberance, sadness and some suspicion – celebrated on Thursday as a deal was struck to release in stages the hostages held in the Gaza Strip as part of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. If the truce holds, one of Israel’s longest wars in the 75 years since the Jewish state was founded will come to an end. – What the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in Gaza Means for the Middle East | The Washington Institute
(Nathan Sachs, Kevin Huggard – Brookings)
On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner release agreement. It will be the first stop in fighting in the Gaza Strip since a November 2023 agreement allowed for the return to Israel of over 100 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. This phased agreement will see, in its initial phase, the release of 33 Israelis held hostage in Gaza in exchange for the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. – Gaza ceasefire: What the Israel-Hamas agreement means
Palestinian Authority
(Neomi Neumann – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
For the first time in years, the Palestinian Authority has been stepping up its activities in various areas of governance. This includes increasing its counterterrorism operations in the West Bank, appointing a temporary replacement for President Mahmoud Abbas in the event he is incapacitated, and signaling willingness to reform the mechanism for payments to prisoners. – PA Reform Is Key to West Bank Stability—and Possible Rule in Gaza | The Washington Institute
Panama Canal
(Andrew Sanders and Ryan C. Berg – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
Since his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has staked out strong positions on the importance of the Western Hemisphere to the United States’ national security interests. A secure, prosperous, and free Western Hemisphere underpins U.S. geopolitical and economic success. Panama is the most strategically significant geography in the Western Hemisphere. With 40 percent of U.S. container traffic passing through the Panama Canal, it rightfully drew President Trump’s attention. Trump has highlighted concerns about the status quo regarding the disposition of the canal, its operation, and People’s Republic of China (PRC)–owned ports dominating the approaches. This commentary will not relitigate the merits of the 1977 Carter-Torrijos treaty, sovereignty, or transit rates but rather highlight the strategic importance of Panama, legitimate concerns over Beijing-owned ports, and the need for sustained diplomatic engagement and U.S. private sector investment. – Panama: From Zoned Out to Strategic Opportunity
Red Sea
(Noam Raydan – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
In 2024, the Washington Institute’s Maritime Spotlight explored several trends in the Houthi maritime campaign, captured in this maritime incident tracker. These included attacks on tankers transporting Russian oil that were struck by the Houthis as a result of outdated shipping information. Maritime Spotlight’s latest research shows that the Houthi campaign has indirectly brought attention to ships carrying Russian cargoes, including via the Red Sea to Asia—particularly India and China, the key purchasers of Russian oil. As Britain and the United States recently imposed strict, sweeping sanctions against ships linked to the Russian oil trade—known as the shadow fleet—some vessels began changing names and flags, a common practice for sanctioned ships seeking to evade restrictions and obfuscate the process of tracking them. These include a couple of vessels attacked by the Houthis in 2023–24 based on outdated information that recently changed names and are now flying the Djiboutian flag. In recent years, sanctioned vessels have adopted the flag of this East African country, including tankers linked to the Iranian and Venezuelan oil trade. – What Does the Red Sea Crisis Reveal About Sanctioned Ships? | The Washington Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Nate Trotter, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on January 17.
The Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement lacks a mutual defense clause, however, indicating that Russia likely lacks the bandwidth to support significant operations outside of Ukraine and is prioritizing its manpower needs through its mutual defense treaty with North Korea.
Russian forces seized Vremivka on January 17 as part of their efforts to envelop Velyka Novosilka and force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the settlement.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call on January 17 indicating the Kremlin’s growing concerns over Armenia’s deepening ties with the West.
Recently declassified US documents highlight the integral role of US monetary and technical assistance in expanding Ukraine’s domestic drone production capabilities and how US national security is directly benefiting by integrating lessons learned from Ukraine in America’s defense industry.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Borova, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 17 authorizing calling up Russian reservists (“personnel mobilization resource” or zapas) for training in 2025. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Southeast Asia – Kazakhstan
(Barbora Valockova – FULCRUM)
There are strategic imperatives for ASEAN to engage more deeply with Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s biggest country. There are, however, challenges to be overcome. – Expanding Southeast Asia-Kazakhstan Dialogue: Strategic Imperatives | FULCRUM
US
(Jonathan Masters, Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations)
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to issue dozens of executive orders over the next several days and weeks, setting the direction and tone for his administration’s return to power. Executive orders and other presidential directives offer the incumbent a potent way to shape government policy from “day one” without having to wait for Congress. Trump is likely to take swift executive actions across a range of policy issues, including immigration, trade, energy, health, and others he focused on during his campaign and prior presidency. – Trump’s Executive Orders: What to Expect | Council on Foreign Relations
(William H. Frey – Brookings)
As many Americans focus on President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, his Day 1 pronouncements, and the policies he plans to introduce, one question is: Will these actions recognize key demographic shifts occuring across the nation, or will they cater mostly to his MAGA base? – Will Trump’s inaugural address recognize America’s key demographic shifts?
(Atlantic Council)
He’s back. On Monday, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the forty-seventh president of the United States, as he vows to shake up the US government and world affairs in pursuit of American interests. But that world looks a lot different than the one he left behind when he exited the White House in 2021. So what exactly should he do? – Eight big ideas for the second Trump administration – Atlantic Council
US – China
(ThinkChina)
As Trump gears up for his second term, will he push ahead on the statements he has made in recent months — whether on the Panama Canal, Greenland or raising tariffs — that are either directly or indirectly related to China? US academic Zhu Zhiqun takes a closer look. – What is Trump up to about China?
US – Russia – China
(ThinkChina)
As the world awaits the second term of Donald Trump as US president, how are China and Russia likely to respond? Will the war in Ukraine finally end, and will China and the US come to terms with how to deal with each other? Commentator Wei Da looks into the various factors in big power politics. – The US-Russia-China conundrum in 2025
US – Southeast Asia
(Stephen Olson – FULCRUM)
Amid intensifying US-China tensions under Trump, technological advancements are heightening the relevance of economic security considerations, especially for products containing dual-use technologies. This holds important implications for Southeast Asian countries deeply embedded into regional and global supply chains. – The Economic Implications of Donald Trump’s Presidency for Southeast Asia | FULCRUM
