From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Afghanistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan
(Anusua Ganguly – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Qosh Tepa Canal project in Northern Afghanistan aims to divert water from the Amu Darya, potentially impacting Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan by reducing water flow in their shared river system. This could strain regional water resources, affecting agriculture and local economies in both countries. – Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal: Potential Impact on Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
ASEAN
(East Asia Forum) ASEAN’s growth and development has been built on a successful strategy of economic integration with its larger neighbours, making it one of the most trade-dependent areas globally and a central player in East Asia’s open economic order. Great-power competition in the Indo Pacific region puts ASEAN’s centrality in the region on the line and demands that it play a more active role, utilising existing arrangements such as RCEP and upgrading its own institutions and processes, to meet the region’s strategic challenges. – ASEAN’s economic diplomacy as the crucial lynchpin in East Asian security | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Australia
(Daniel McCormick – ASPI The Strategist) Last week, the Industry Capability Network in Australia (ICN) released the second edition of its Northern Territory’s Construction Industry Mapping Report. As the Australian Department of Defence prepares to unleash a wave of construction projects on the area, both public and private sectors must understand the region’s construction industry landscape to deliver the major projects desired during this increasingly busy period. – NT construction industry report holds lessons for Defence | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Brunei
(Gurjit Singh – Vivekananda International Foundation) The Sultanate of Brunei is among the smallest countries of ASEAN with a high GDP. It follows a quiet diplomatic style. Brunei is different from other ASEAN countries in that it is a sultanate where all decisions are made by the Sultan who is also the Prime Minister and holds the major ministries except foreign affairs. – The Importance of Being Brunei | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Chile
(Richard Kouyoumdjian Inglis – RUSI) Murders and the presence of organised crime have become disturbingly commonplace, while the government has failed to make a meaningful difference or appease Chileans’ fear of crime. – Criminality is Taking Over Chile, and Politicians Can’t Seem to Fix It | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
China
(Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak – Manohar Parrikar Institute) China is moving away from the minimum deterrence policy. The character of its nuclear arsenal is changing with the diversification of all three legs of the triad. At the operational level, the nuclear forces are on high alert. China is entering into an arms race with the US and Russia. – China’s Nuclear Arsenal: An Assessment | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
(Peter Leavy – Lowy The Interpreter) Recent Chinese maritime activity around the Second Thomas Shoal marks a potentially new and more aggressive stage in China’s campaign to extend control over the South China Sea. Concerningly, the same type of behaviour has now expanded to Sabina Shoal, only 86 nautical miles from the Philippines island of Palawan. Chinese assertiveness is spreading laterally, becoming more violent, and may well be tied to new laws China recently granted itself. – A step-change to Beijing’s “lawfare” in the South China Sea | Lowy Institute
China – India
(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) A recent commentary in the Chinese government mouthpiece Global Times came down heavily on Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, accusing him of being an “obstacle” to “gradually improving China-India ties”. However, a closer look at the current Chinese discourse on India suggests that substantial resistance to improving China-India relations continues to come from within Chinese society. – Chinese Chatter – What’s keeping India from the great Beijing reset? (orfonline.org)
(Manoj Joshi – Observer Research Foundation) Is India on the verge of resetting its relations with China? There has been a flurry of meetings between Indian and Chinese officials in the months following the start of Prime Minister Modi’s third term in June. The 2024 Economic Survey’s call for relooking at restrictions on economic relations with China has added to speculation of a shift in India’s approach to China. – Disengagement and reset with China? (orfonline.org)
China – Taiwan
(Erik Green – IISS) China’s new strategy for ‘peaceful reunification’ with Taiwan promotes cross-strait integration through bottom-up innovation and regional experimentation. Since it was first announced a year ago, this strategy has expanded to include China Coast Guard incursions around Kinmen. – China’s continued experimentation for peaceful reunification (iiss.org)
China – USA
(Emmie Hine – East Asia Forum) The United States and China are competing intensely in the development of artificial intelligence (AI), with China steadily progressing despite regulatory and external challenges. The US approach hinges on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, with stances differing significantly between the Democratic and Republican candidates. The potential repealing of the Biden administration’s AI executive order in a second Trump presidency could have implications for civil rights, visa processes attracting foreign talent and decoupling with China, potentially damaging US innovation capabilities and inciting escalated conflict that would be damaging beyond just AI development. – US–China AI competition at the crossroads between dialogue and decoupling | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
(RAND Corporation) The U.S.-China relationship presents a complex array of foreign policy challenges that will have to be addressed when a new administration takes charge in Washington next year. Among the critical issues that will be on the agenda in January when the next U.S. president is sworn in are economic tensions, Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific region, the security of Taiwan, China’s relationship with Russia, its efforts to spread its influence around the globe, and its accelerating disinformation campaigns. – Competing with China Explained: What Americans Need to Know | RAND
Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(Ravindra Utgikar, Sayali Thakare – Observer Research Foundation) Relentless urbanisation often has a heavy environmental cost, arising from activities such as the consumption of fossil resources to fuel industrialisation and infrastructure development. The resulting surge in greenhouse gas emissions is one of the biggest contributors to climate change, which leads to frequent extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Such events pose an existential threat to human life, infrastructure, and economic stability. In this context, this brief explores bioeconomy as a potential solution for securing a sustainable future. – The Promise of Bioeconomy as a Solution for Sustainability (orfonline.org)
European Union
(Noah Barkin – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Nearly four years ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel pushed through an investment deal between the EU and China that unsettled allies from Washington to Tokyo. At the time, Joe Biden had just beaten Donald Trump in a hotly contested presidential election, and the president-elect was promising to work more closely with Europe to address China challenges after a year marked by Beijing’s aggressive pandemic diplomacy and security crackdown in Hong Kong. – The EU and Its EV Duties | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
India
(Neha Khanna, Mannat Jaspal – Observer Research Foundation) India presents a unique case of balancing decarbonisation efforts with industrial growth. While notable progress is being made in decarbonising the power and transport sectors, reducing industrial emissions poses a formidable challenge. To meet its decarbonisation targets, India will need massive capital flows, projected at US$10.1 trilliors lacking viable green alternatives. This is especially crucial givenon by 2070. While green finance will support technologies that align with the Paris Agreement, transition finance is essential for sect the increasing likelihood of stringent carbon border adjustments. Transition finance plays a pivotal role in helping India’s energy-intensive industries—such as steel, cement, and aviation—reduce their carbon footprint and navigate the impacts of protectionist domestic policies. This brief examines the vital role of both green finance and transition finance in addressing the decarbonisation needs of hard-to-abate sectors, which collectively account for over 40 percent of global emissions. – An Introduction to Green and Transition Finance (orfonline.org)
India – Bangladesh
(Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan – East Asia Forum) Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister and subsequent flight to India amid a mass uprising has sparked concerns about the future of Dhaka’s relationship with India. The possibility of the historically anti-India Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) winning upcoming elections lead to a review of the bilateral relationship. Hasina’s tenure strengthened relationships with India, but the BNP’s previous tenures were marked by increasing Islamic militancy and animosity towards India. The political shift could negatively affect India’s strategic interests and geopolitical standing with Bangladesh. – Why India is so concerned about Bangladesh’s political problems | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Indonesia
(Rafi Adis Subarna – East Asia Forum) Indonesia, holding over half the global market share in nickel as of 2023, has experienced a surge in nickel mining and production activities, causing a glut that decreased global prices. But this has led to unsustainable extraction rates, prompting the government to impose a moratorium on new processing facilities and request investment in High Pressure Acid Leach facilities for electric vehicle battery production. These strategies must balance economic growth, job creation and environmental sustainability. – Smelters squeeze Indonesia’s nickel ore supply | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Japan
(Sayuri Shirai – East Asia Forum) In Japan, cash remains popular despite the rise of cashless payments due to the ageing population and economic factors. The Bank of Japan is exploring the use of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) but their benefits for domestic use are limited due to the existing banking infrastructure. But CBDCs could significantly improve cross-border transactions by reducing costs and delays. Several international projects, like mBridge and Nexus, are exploring the potential of CBDCs in facilitating faster and cheaper cross-border payments. Japan should actively participating in these initiatives, joining the global interest in leveraging CBDCs for more efficient international transactions. – Japan’s Central Bank Digital Currency should go big, not go home | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
North Korea
(Joseph Dempsey – IISS) Recent satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is making progress in modifying a heavy transport aircraft intended likely to be the country’s first airborne early warning (AEW) platform. Pyongyang, however, faces technical challenges in what appears to be its quest to field a credible AEW aircraft. – North Korea – A new eye in the sky (iiss.org)
Russia – Mongolia – China
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) In August, the Mongolian government released its National Action Programme for 2024 to 2028. This comprehensive development strategy aims to solve developmental problems and remove roadblocks to successfully implement ongoing projects. It has four goals and a total of 593 planned activities. However, one key project was missing from the list: The construction of the Soyuz Vostok pipeline, a 962-km-long extension of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which connects the gas fields in Yamal in Western Siberia to China via Mongolia. This 2,594-km-long pipeline would add capacity to export 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, in addition to the existing 38 bcm of natural gas currently being exported via the Power of Siberia-1, which runs from Yakutia and enters China from Blagoveshchensk on the Russia-China border. The exclusion of the pipeline from this strategy stokes concern about the project stalling, especially since Moscow and Beijing have been unable to agree on key terms for commencing the construction of Russia’s flagship pipeline since last year. – The Power of Siberia-2 saga: Russia’s energy pivot to China faces roadblocks (orfonline.org)
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The All-Russian Cossack Society (VsKO) continues to encourage both registered and non-registered Cossacks to participate in Russia’s war against Ukraine, pulling on Kremlin propaganda about the purpose of the war and the Cossack mythos of the tradition of ancient warriors. The Russian government is working closely with VsKO, passing a law that gives registered Cossacks the ability to stay in the mobilization reserve of the Russian Armed Forces through “voluntary” contracts. The VsKO and the Kremlin have emphasized that they “work for the unity of the Cossacks,” aiming to merge non-registered and registered Cossacks into one category and promote the revival of the traditionally militaristic Cossack culture in Russian society. – Kremlin Increases Cossack Forces in Ukraine – Jamestown
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has been expanding its activities in Africa, including aiding in Moscow’s recruitment of locals for its paramilitary needs through religious belief. African students working and living in Russia under the guise of reconstructing ROC monasteries in Ryazan oblast are reportedly joining the Russian Armed Forces to take part in Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Low living standards, limited social security, and the declining popularity of the West in Africa could become a useful tool for Moscow in expanding its influence operations in the Global South. – Russian Orthodox Church Recruits African Students for Moscow’s War in Ukraine – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation – 16 September 2024) Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to distort Western discussions about Ukrainian use of long-range weapons on Russian soil, launching a fresh wave of escalatory threats should Western capitals grant Kyiv such authorization. Putin’s escalatory threats of nuclear retaliation aim to pressure Western nations and exploit potential divisions between the United States and its European allies, but his rhetoric has grown increasingly hollow. Western nations continue to calibrate their responses to Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship, as Putin’s declarations of nuclear warfare are bluffs until they are not. – Moscow Takes the Measure of Western Vacillations – Jamestown
Sahel
(Beatriz de León Cobo – RUSI) The recent closure of the last US military base in Niger highlights a shifting geopolitical landscape in which Sahelian countries are diversifying their partnerships beyond traditional Western allies, focusing on strategic deals with new global players. – Shifting Alliances: The Sahel’s Geostrategic Evolution in a Multipolar Era | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Southeast Asia
(Lakshmy Ramakrishnan – Observer Research Foundation) The occurrence of forced criminality at a transnational level has risen considerably, with Southeast Asia forming the epicentre of these activities. Forced criminality refers to the trafficking of humans for criminal exploitation through deceptive means or force. Victims are forced to engage in illegal activities to make a profit for the traffickers and are faced with threats. Job scams originating in Southeast Asia accounted for almost half of the cybercrimes reported in India this year. Ahead of the 19th East Asia Summit, India reiterated its commitment to ASEAN centrality but it will need to seize the opportunity and partner with ASEAN to form definitive measures to address the rise in transnational criminal networks targeting Indians. – Forced criminality: A resounding knell for ASEAN and its partners (orfonline.org)
(Noor Ismail – East Asia Forum) On 30 June 2024, the militant group Jemaah Islamiyah announced its dissolution. The unexpected disbandment has led many to question if it is truly the end of the group. While the announcement is to be celebrated, a vigilant and collaborative approach must be adopted to rehabilitate former members and promote stability in Southeast Asia. – Is the dissolution of Jemaah Islamiyah a victory or a strategic deception? | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
UK – India
(Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Simran Brookes – IISS) For over a decade, the British and Indian governments have been talking about ‘realising the potential’ of their relationship. Now appears the opportune time to do so. The UK’s new Labour government led by Sir Keir Starmer seeks to enhance its ties with India, having included establishing a new strategic partnership with New Delhi as a manifesto commitment. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the start of his third five-year term, also remains committed to elevating bilateral ties. But doing so, especially in both the defence and technology spheres, will require partnership with industry, research and innovation centres and academia. – Next steps for UK–India defence and technology cooperation (iiss.org)
UN
(Stéphanie Fillion – Lowy The Interpreter) New York City is gearing up for the next United Nations General Assembly, but the gathered diplomats wandering the halls of UN headquarters ahead of the leaders arriving next week are showing little enthusiasm for the headline act. Billed as a “Summit for the Future” to coincide with the annual UN talks, the hope is to deliver a “pact” as the main outcome – yet despite rafts of draft text, the diplomats involved have struggled to define what the vision really all means. – The UN “Summit of the Future” can’t afford to ignore the present | Lowy Institute
USA
(Tim Benton – Chatham House) The outcome of the US election is consequential for the global climate agenda, through its potential impact on environmental governance and perhaps more importantly, its consequences for global trade and tensions. – Trump’s plans invite environmental disaster. Harris takes climate change seriously, but lacks detail | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
USA – Indo Pacific
(Andrew Yeo – Brookings) In the early 1950s, the United States established a series of bilateral security alliances in Asia with the goal of deterring communist aggression and expansion in Asia. In contrast to the collective defense arrangement established through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe, the United States established a “hub-and-spokes” alliance system that included signing treaty alliances with the Philippines (1951); Japan (1951, revised in 1960); Australia and New Zealand (1951); South Korea (1953); and the Republic of China or Taiwan (1954, ending in 1979). The network of U.S. alliances remains an enduring feature of Asia’s security landscape today. However, Asia’s regional architecture has evolved considerably since the end of the Cold War to respond to new challenges including China’s rise, North Korea’s nuclear threat, and maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas. – Cultivating America’s alliances and partners in the Indo-Pacific (brookings.edu)
