From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Afghanistan-Pakistan, China-Southeast Asia, Europe, India, India-China, Koreas, Moldova-Russia, Myanmar, Nepal-India-China, Southern Africa Development Community, Syria, Thailand, UK-China, Ukraine, US, US-China
Afghanistan – Pakistan
(Sushant Sareen – Observer Research Foundation)
The spiralling violence along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and beyond is slowly but surely sucking Pakistan into the Afghan vortex. The diplomatic ploys, as well as the military moves and countermoves by both the Taliban and Pakistan against each other, are only complicating an already complex and increasingly bitter relationship. While the two sides are sending out both conciliatory and combative signals, the latter is receiving greater traction because of the pervasive sense of insecurity, insincerity and insidiousness that has come to define the bilateral relationship. Domestic political compulsions to stand up to and not give in to the other side, coupled with traditional Punjabi versus Pashtun animus coming to the fore, have made the situation even more intractable. – Pakistan’s Afghan dilemma: Bad options, worse outcomes
China – Southeast Asia
(Leo S.F. Lin – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Chinese organised crime in Southeast Asia thrives on fraud, drug, and human trafficking and technological exploitation, with Myanmar serving as a key hub. Despite crackdowns, these operations persist, necessitating urgent regional and international intervention. – Business As Usual? Chinese Organised Crime in Southeast Asia – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Europe
(Shreya Sinha – Vivekananda International Foundation)
In 2024, Europe found itself navigating a landscape defined by profound geopolitical, economic, and political shifts. The enduring conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to shape the continent’s strategic priorities, prompting stronger alignment with NATO, and efforts to enhance its strategic autonomy. Similarly, the conflict in the Middle East had significant repercussions for Europe, leading to a surge in refugee flows and increased political polarization within the European Union. Economically, the EU faced the dual challenge of sustaining recovery from recession while contending with inflationary pressures and energy supply concerns, due to reduced dependence on Russian oil and gas. These evolving trends highlight Europe’s evolving dynamics in an increasingly multipolar world, setting the stage for significant implications both within and beyond its borders, including for key partners like India. – Europe in Transition: Key Developments of 2024 and Prospects for 2025 | Vivekananda International Foundation
India
(Chaitanya Ravi, Aparna Shankar, Shantanu Kishwar – Observer Research Foundation)
Despite the optimism surrounding the potential dividends from India’s youth population, demographic ageing is underway. All but five of India’s 28 states have fertility rates below replacement levels, with the share of older adults growing faster than all other age cohorts. However, existing policies, laws, and schemes targeting older adults have fallen short. Poor drafting, limited implementation, and a disproportionate focus on youth needs have hindered their effectiveness. As India continues its demographic shift, addressing the issues of older adults is becoming increasingly urgent. This brief examines India’s current laws and schemes designed to support older adults, evaluating their focus and effectiveness to assess the government’s strategy on demographic ageing. It concludes with an analysis of political will, assessing electoral promises from the 2024 general election and retirement policies as a proxy for political parties’ perspectives on demographic ageing, and discusses their short- and long-term policy implications. – Ageing in India: Current Demographic and Health Trends and Gaps in Policy
India – China
(Prerna Gandhi – Vivekananda International Foundation)
Since the 21 October 2024 agreement on disengagement and patrolling between India and China, the debate surrounding the future contours of India-China relations has gained significant prominence in India. The release of the Economic Survey in July 2024 had sparked similar interest in the outlook for India-China ties. The two countries which share a long and complex relationship faced heightened tensions post the 2020 Galwan border clashes that marked first fatalities in 45 years in largely peaceful borders. This violent episode, coupled with the pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalating geopolitical volatility led to a reassessment of one of the most fundamental assumptions girding the bilateral relationship. For years, the Indian government sought to keep the issue of the border separate from broader India-China relations, but the Galwan crisis changed this approach. Many high-level diplomatic meetings were frozen. However, trade continued unabated despite the abnormal state of bilateral relations. – Another Take on India-China Economic Cooperation | Vivekananda International Foundation
Koreas
(Manohar Parrikar Institute)
North Korea was regarded as one of the reasons for the sudden declaration of martial law in South Korea by President Yoon Suk Yeol on 3 December 2024. It was the first time in over four decades that martial law was imposed in South Korea. This move by President Yoon triggered a strong resentment from the South Korean public and the opposition parties. Subsequently, the legislative branch of South Korean political system, the National Assembly, passed a resolution against the imposition of martial law and nullified the presidential decree. The National Assembly also voted for the impeachment of President Yoon on 14 December 2024. However, the removal of Yoon from his post still requires approval from the Constitutional Court of South Korea. – North Korea and the Ongoing Political Turmoil in South Korea – MP-IDSA
Moldova – Russia
(Soufan Center)
On January 1, Moldova found itself the victim of an energy crisis when Russian gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines were halted after Ukraine refused to renew its transit agreement with Moscow.
Moldova’s lack of preparation for this long-awaited outcome as well as the consequences of Russian hybrid aggression have caused the country to be the most affected by the stoppage.
In January Moldova began importing gas from Europe at a much higher price, but the separatist government in the breakaway region of Transnistria refused any assistance from Chisinau or the European Union, seemingly waiting for Russian gas to return, leaving its 450,000 citizens without access to gas.
In an effort to create additional political challenges in Moldova, Russia is likely planning to withhold gas to influence the upcoming elections, while also aiming to empower Transnistria and encourage the breakaway region to amplify its grievances against Moldova, further complicating Moldova’s political landscape. – Moldova’s Gas Crisis: The Cost of Defying Russia – The Soufan Center
Myanmar
(Cchavi Vasisht – Vivekananda International Foundation)
The ongoing conflict in Myanmar is becoming increasingly complex, with concerns that it may ‘risk becoming a forgotten crisis’ warned Julie Bishop, Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Myanmar. The successes by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), since Operation 1027, have exposed significant vulnerabilities within the military, including significant territorial losses, low morale and recruitment struggles. Even attempts to recapture a critical intersection have faced strong resistance from ethnic groups. – Myanmar’s Evolving Landscape: Annual Review 2024 and Policy Prescriptions for 2025 | Vivekananda International Foundation
Nepal – India – China
(Sudan Kumar Oli – Vivekananda International Foundation)
Nepal is a sovereign country, and promoting and expanding its foreign relations fall under its sole rights. However, such extensions and promotions should not harm its immediate neighbours, India and China. Nepal must be aware of its red lines, and its immediate neighbours must respect these limitations. For instance, in 2015, when India and China bilaterally decided to develop Lipulekh commercially, Nepal immediately protested, asserting that it is a territory at the tri-junction and that Nepal’s consent must be obtained before any decisions are made. – Correcting the Indian Media Narrative on Nepal’s Pro-China Posture | Vivekananda International Foundation
Southern Africa Development Community
(Ahmed Amal – Emirates Policy Center)
Over the past two decades, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has emerged as a reliable mechanism for collective security in the Southern African region, even though it was initially established as a platform for economic integration among member states.
The simultaneous withdrawal of SADC’s mission from Mozambique and its expansion into the Democratic Republic of Congo highlights the organization’s dual commitment to collective security and the challenges of managing two large-scale missions simultaneously.
Several factors support the potential growth of SADC’s role in security and defense. These include its tradition of unanimous decision-making on military interventions, improvements in member states’ military capabilities, the emergence of transnational threats and the growing international recognition of SADC’s contributions.
Despite these opportunities, significant challenges remain. These include the escalation of security threats, growing military polarization among member states and leadership dynamics, particularly the decline of South Africa’s role and the rise of competing powers. –Emirates Policy Center | Evaluating the Prospects of SADC as a Collective Security Framework in Southern Africa
Syria
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation)
With only a few days left of Joe Biden’s administration in the White House, and as Donald Trump once again prepares to take over the American presidency, the Middle East will greet the new government as a region both in turmoil and rapid transition. While a political and military ceasefire between Israel and Hamas continues to be chased, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s three-decade-long rule in Syria, and the rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) has thrown a spanner into the region’s proverbial cogwheel of diplomacy and realpolitik. – Syria’s transition under Ahmed al-Sharaa: Diplomacy and realpolitik
Thailand
(William J Jones – East Asia Forum)
Infamous yellow shirt protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul has issued an ultimatum, threatening to begin staging street protests if the Thai government does not withdraw from its 2001 Memorandum of Understanding and joint communique with Cambodia over overlapping territorial claims. This is the latest wave of anger from Sondhi and his fellow nationalists, whose protest movement brought down the Thaksin government in 2006 and sparked a 2009–11 border war over the disputed Preah Vihear Temple. Thai nationalists’ uncompromising stance means that they will continue to thwart any government attempts at negotiation, no matter how advantageous such negotiations might be to Thailand’s interests. – Thai nationalism rears its ugly head again | East Asia Forum
UK – China
(Chatham House) The UK’s political relationship with China has deteriorated since the much heralded ‘golden era’ of the mid-2010s, but important technical cooperation on climate policy has continued. Joint climate action can play a central part in any recalibration of UK–China ties that emerges from the UK’s ongoing ‘audit’ of the relationship. There is a need and opportunity, too, for countries that are committed to addressing climate change to play a more influential role internationally, at a time when climate multilateralism is under severe strain. – An agenda for UK–China climate cooperation | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine
(Lea Ellmanns, Oleksiy Melnyk, Wolf-Christian Paes – IISS)
The report examines the transformation of Ukraine’s security sector, mainly its military and paramilitary forces, after 1991. In addition, it zooms in on current challenges surrounding veteran reintegration in detailing broader considerations for Ukraine’s future security sector. – Transformation Under Fire – An Analysis of Ukraine’s Security Sector Since 1991
US
(Nicholas Morieson – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The first fissures of the second Trump administration have begun to open on immigration. With such figures as Elon Musk and Steve Bannon taking opposite sides of the debate, and pushing their agendas, the first year is poised to offer a rocky start for the administration. – Why Opinions on Legal Immigration Divide, and may Ultimately Doom, Trump’s MAGA Movement – Australian Institute of International Affairs
US – China
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) The world anxiously awaits the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20 January and nowhere more than in China. Expectations from the Chinese strategic community about the path of US–China relations over the next four years range from tragically fatalistic to extremely optimistic. – The tough dilemma Trump 2.0 poses for Beijing | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(William Matthews – Chatham House) Incoming US President Trump is known for his belligerent rhetoric on China. But while his stance on economic competition is clear, his stance on security issues – including defence of Taiwan and guarantees to US military allies like the Philippines – is not. Meanwhile, despite ongoing corruption scandals Beijing is proceeding apace with military modernization, its aim being to outclass the US in the East and South China Seas while also expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal. – Trump’s ambiguous stance on China raises the risk of accidental conflict in the Indo-Pacific | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
