From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Armenia; China; China-US; Georgia; Middle East; Multilateralism; Russia; US; Western Balkans
Armenia
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) The U.S.-brokered Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia, has accelerated Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization but triggered domestic backlash in Armenia and concern from Iran and Russia. TRIPP sovereignty concerns and uncertainty over implementation threaten Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s domestic political standing, with parliamentary elections set for June 2026. Pashinyan continues to assert that the U.S.-managed TRIPP preserves full Armenian sovereignty, though border arrangements remain unclear following a public dispute with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev about the name during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Skepticism about the TRIPP is high, as some fear that a route to Nakhchivan could allow Azerbaijan or Russia to control Armenia’s strategic border with Iran or provide a pretext for renewed military conflict. Pashinyan’s critics charge that the U.S. involvement could do the same. – Armenia Balances Between the TRIPP and Zangezur Corridor – Jamestown
China
(K. Tristan Tang – The Jamestown Foundation) Like many militaries around the world, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) places strong emphasis on Clausewitz’s concept of the center of gravity—the single most important and decisive operational problem to the PLA in a given phase or time window. A recent PLA Daily article places new emphasis on information-centric centers of gravity, time-sensitive targeting, and the requirement for higher-level approval. These three shifts reflect intensified preparations for operations against Taiwan, as well as suggesting an ongoing breakdown of trust between military authorities and frontline officers. – New Emphases in the PLA’s Operational Centers of Gravity – Jamestown
China – US
(Bonnie S. Glaser, Penny Naas – GMFUS) After several months of relative calm, US-Chinese relations took a negative turn when Beijing flexed its geopolitical muscle and dramatically expanded the list of rare earth elements (REEs) requiring an export license. US President Donald Trump reacted strongly, threatening to impose new 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods as of November 1 and cancel a planned meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in South Korea at the end of October. China’s action, alongside new export restrictions on lithium batteries used in electric cars and superhard materials used to make mining drills, reminded global markets that it controls 90% of global rare earth magnet production and 85% of global REE refining and processing capacity. Chinese companies must now obtain licenses to export rare-earth mining and separation equipment, giving Beijing more influence over nations seeking to be alternatives to Chinese sources. – Rare Earth Statecraft Phase Two | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Georgia
(Khatia Shamanauri – The Jamestown Foundation) Western diplomats are coming under unprecedented pressure from the Georgian Dream government, with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kohakhidze accusing EU Ambassador to Georgia Pawel Herczynski of backing an attempt to overthrow the constitutional order. The European Union has categorically rejected and condemned disinformation about its role in Georgia, as well as personal attacks against the EU ambassador. Many fear that under the Georgian Dream government, it will be difficult to establish positive relations with Western countries, leaving Georgia dependent on unreliable partners and increasing authoritarian influence in the region. – Georgian Government Intensifies Pressure on Western Diplomats – Jamestown
Middle East
(Sanam Vakil – Chatham House) President Trump’s achievement in delivering the initial phase of his twenty-point plan marks an important first step in moving the Gaza war toward an end. His ability to focus political energy on this crisis has been decisive, especially in securing the agreement on a hostage and prisoner release and in getting both parties to take the first steps toward a ceasefire. Yet this is only the beginning. Critical issues remain unresolved, like governance in Gaza, the question of Hamas’s disarmament, and ultimately the pathway to Palestinian statehood. They will determine whether the settlement can be sustained in the long term. – The US needs a new Iran strategy if Trump’s Gaza plan is to endure | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Atlantic Council) On Monday, in the first part of a cease-fire deal brokered by the White House, Hamas released all twenty living hostages that it still held following its October 7, 2023, terrorist attack, while Israel released nearly two thousand Palestinian prisoners, paused strikes, and began to pull back Israeli forces within Gaza. “A big burden has been lifted, but the job IS NOT DONE,” US President Donald Trump posted on social media on Tuesday. “Phase Two begins right NOW!!!”. So what should this next phase include? Who or what might play the spoiler in further peace-building efforts? And what moves should we expect from the different sides and stakeholders? – Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the next phase of an Israel-Hamas deal – Atlantic Council
Multilateralism
(Brahima Sangafowa Coulibaly and Zia Qureshi – Brookings) In matters ranging from trade to finance to climate, the world today is more connected than ever. International cooperation is indispensable in providing a rules-based framework for global trade and finance and addressing climate change and other global challenges that transcend national borders. Yet the multilateral system—institutions, rules, and policies underpinning cooperation among nations—is faltering. Impaired by long-standing shortcomings and a failure to keep up with the dynamism of the global economy, it now confronts a rapidly changing geopolitical and technological landscape. The world faces a new Bretton Woods moment—a time for bold reimagination and decisive action to build a multilateral system fit for the challenges and realities of the 21st century. The postwar multilateral system, shaped by the United States, helped drive global economic progress for eight decades. It also supported and advanced U.S. interests. But it now needs a major overhaul. Escalating trade wars, intensifying geoeconomic fragmentation, and mounting associated costs underscore the urgent need for a fundamental rethink. Rather than abandon the system as the geopolitical order shifts, it is in the U.S. interest to stay engaged and play a leadership role in reshaping it. – The world is changing, multilateralism must too | Brookings
Russia
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Late-Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, calls for Europe to develop a united, long-term strategy toward Russia while preserving the country’s territorial integrity. The Russian opposition remains fragmented, divided between Moscow-centric reformists such as Navalnaya’s camp and ethno-national or regionalist forces advocating de-imperialization. This lack of consensus undermines the opposition’s ability to present a cohesive alternative to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. This disunity hampers engagement with European institutions, such as the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe’s Platform for Dialogue with Russian Democratic Forces, and undermines prospects for coherent democratic reform. – Russian Opposition Lacks Unified Strategy – Jamestown
US
(Clara Fong and Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) For nearly four decades, the H-1B visa program has allowed U.S. employers to hire nonimmigrant foreign workers with specialized skills that are difficult to find in the domestic workforce. In fiscal year (FY) 2024, close to four hundred thousand H-1B visa applications were approved, the majority of which were for visa renewals. However, the H-1B program has long faced criticism over claims that it displaces American workers and suppresses wages. Citing this, President Donald Trump announced in late September a significant increase to the fee that employers must pay for new H-1B petitions. Some experts warn this change could harm the U.S. economy, undermine competitiveness with China, and drive highly skilled talent to other countries. – Trump’s H-1B Visa Change: What to Know | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Western Balkans
(Aleksandar Ivković – GMFUS) Organized voter migration (OVM) is a form of election fraud that involves registering and organizing for individuals who do not reside in a particular location to vote there for a specific candidate or party, thereby illegitimately influencing election results. The Western Balkans has seen repeated allegations of OVM dating back to at least the early 2010s, mostly in connection with municipal elections. These allegations have sometimes led to serious political consequences, such as in the case of the December 2023 Belgrade municipal elections in Serbia. In the Western Balkans, OVM is not only a national issue but also often a regional one, with reports of voters “migrating” within their own country and across national borders. OVM can, therefore, erode trust in the accuracy of voter registers and in the integrity of the electoral process across multiple countries. Organized voter migration in the Western Balkans is facilitated by state capture, in which entrenched political elites abuse state institutions to illegally create or maintain fictitious residencies for individuals who will vote for them, thereby manipulating the composition of voter registers. Interior ministries, which oversee civil registers, are often the “entry point” for such operations. Transparency regarding voter registers varies across the Western Balkan countries, making it difficult for external observers to detect suspicious registration patterns that may indicate OVM. Many of the cases that have come to public attention did so as the result of leaks or insider testimony provided to opposition parties or civil society organizations. A full audit of the voter register is the most comprehensive way to tackle organized voter migration. In the Western Balkans, a limited audit was conducted only in North Macedonia in 2016. However, a successful audit in one country would not resolve the broader issue of dual residency across borders. To effectively address this challenge, regional sharing of data from voter and civil registers is necessary. Additional steps to prevent OVM include increasing the transparency of voter registers, while respecting personal data protection laws, and holding all municipal elections simultaneously, which would reduce opportunities for organized migration. None of these steps will be possible without clear political will and commitment to resolve this issue. The EU should make resolving voter-registration issues a clear condition in the accession process for the Western Balkan countries and actively encourage regional cooperation in addressing them. – Organized Voter Migration in the Western Balkans | German Marshall Fund of the United States
