From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) Africa can learn from the Indian diaspora’s global success in fostering social, cultural, and economic progress. By harnessing the entrepreneurial spirit of their own diaspora, African countries can drive economic growth and advance Sustainable Development Goals. Modern economies rely on scientific and engineering research for growth. In today’s interconnected world, diaspora communities, including those from India, play crucial roles in global politics. About 30 million Africans, many with advanced degrees and entrepreneurial skills, now live abroad, contributing to sectors like finance, IT, and agriculture to support their host countries’ development. Many actively advocate for policies to improve Africa’s future through political engagement and charitable efforts. – The India model: A blueprint for harnessing Africa’s STEM diaspora (orfonline.org)
ASEAN – Malaysia
(Angeline Tan, Yanitha Meena Louis – Lowy The Interpreter) In recent years, expectations for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to “get its act together” and actively respond to regional challenges have been met with disappointment. Lukewarm responses, such as the largely inconsequential Five-Point Consensus on the Myanmar crisis, have demonstrated how difficult it can be for the grouping with its consensus model of decision making to reach beyond superficial actions. This has prompted proposals to exercise an “ASEAN Minus X” formula, sparking further debate on the bloc’s principle of equality. But there are fresh expectations for Malaysia to “liberate” ASEAN from its ongoing existential crisis when it assumes the chair of the grouping for 2025. These expectations largely stem from need – new leadership always brings fresh hope – as well as a newfound confidence in Malaysia to act since Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim took office in 2022. – Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship is a catalyst, not a panacea | Lowy Institute
Australia – Indonesia
(Justin Hastings – East Asia Forum) The recently signed Australia-Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement is a significant step forward in bilateral relations, but it does not fundamentally redefine the strategic relationship. The agreement focuses on ironing out nuts-and-bolts issues and addressing legal constraints on cooperation, enabling more complex military activities. While Indonesia maintains its non-alignment policy, the agreement presents opportunities for Australia to build confidence, pursue mutual interests, and potentially expand cooperation into areas like technology transfer and trade. – What Australia’s new defence deal with Indonesia means for regional security | East Asia Forum
Bangladesh
(Ahmede Hussain – East Asia Forum) Bangladesh’s overthrowing of its longest-standing dictator, Sheikh Hasina, brings an end to her rule marked by human rights abuses and election rigging. In its efforts to rebuild the nation, Bangladesh’s interim government must restore the hopes of its youth and ethnic minorities while addressing the army’s command responsibility. In its foreign policy, Bangladesh must confront perceptions of India as tied to Hasina’s Awami League and look to Western allies for support in reform. – Tyranny to transformation in post-Hasina Bangladesh | East Asia Forum
Cambodia – Australia
(Chhay Lim, Genevieve Donnellon-May – Lowy The Interpreter) At first glance, Cambodia and Australia might not seem like major players in each other’s diplomatic orbits. But watch this space. Over the past decades, Canberra has been a key partner in Cambodia’s development, collaborating closely on economic and governance initiatives. To further strengthen ties, Phnom Penh could upgrade its relationship with Australia to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships (CSP) — the highest diplomatic tier in Phnom Penh’s foreign relations. This would make Australia the third country, behind China (in 2010) and Japan (in 2023), to achieve CSP status. – Caught between giants: Why Cambodia looks to Australia | Lowy Institute
China
(Harsh V. Pant, Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) On October 1, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-led government in China celebrated its 75th anniversary of the liberation. Amidst the celebrations, it is remarkable to notice China’s transformation from a backward, feudal and war-ravaged society in 1949 to the second-largest economy, a tech-savvy modern society and a great-power military in the millennium’s third decade. China’s social indicators on health, education, medical care, and basic services have undergone substantial enhancements and CCP rule has a definite claim on these achievements. However, China is going through considerable challenges on domestic and external fronts and the CCP appears bereft of ideas and the nerve to deal with them. The decelerating economic growth and falling indicators across the board on trade, exports, employment and real estate have driven China into stagflation, damaging the CCP’s aura of invincibility. The Party urgently needs to rejuvenate itself before seeking China’s rejuvenation, otherwise the portents are getting darker on the horizon. – Xi’s Permanent Struggle (orfonline.org)
(John Fitzgerald – ASPI The Strategist) Lecturing in Munich in 1919, German political economist Max Weber spoke of the modern state as a ‘human community that claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory’. That elegant statement serves to this day as the conventional definition of a national state. As the People’s Republic of China marks the 75th anniversary of its founding this month, it is clearer than ever that Weber’s definition does not apply to the ‘state’ in China but rather to the Chinese Communist Party, which holds a national monopoly on the legitimate use of force and functions as effective sovereign on behalf of the nation. What’s more, the party is asking the rest of the world to welcome its rise, along with the rise of China, and promoting its values internationally for emulation by others as it seeks to refashion the world in its own image—one where sovereign parties have equal standing with sovereign states. – After 75 years of the People’s Republic of China, the party is truly the sovereign | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Europe
(Liana Fix, Sophia Winograd – Council on Foreign Relations) Advances by right-wing parties in recent elections in Austria and Germany could have a destabilizing effect on domestic politics, as well as normalize anti-migrant and Euroskeptic viewpoints in European politics. Mainstream parties are seeking new coalitions to keep radical parties out of power, but European Union (EU) migration policy is already moving toward tighter border measures throughout the region as well as an increase in deportation of asylum seekers. The changes also signal possible tougher debates on aid for Ukraine. – How Far-Right Election Gains Are Changing Europe | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Georgia
(Elene Kintsurashvili, Serafine Dinkel – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Georgians go to the polls on October 26 to determine if the Georgian Dream (GD) party’s 12-year hold on power will continue. But given GD’s increasingly anti-Western stances, the vote actually serves as a referendum on Georgia’s democracy. – In Georgia, the Future of Democracy is On The Ballot | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The European Parliament adopted a resolution on October 9, calling on the EU executive body to freeze aid to the Georgian government and impose sanctions against those responsible for Georgia’s democratic backsliding. The ruling Georgian Dream party’s campaigns promoting anti-European propaganda as well as spreading anti-EU narratives and conspiracy theories highlight that it has no desire for rapprochement with the European Union. The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 26 will determine whether Georgia follows its course toward a European future or if the ruling party succeeds in continuing its authoritarian trajectory away from the West. – Georgia’s Path to EU Accession Depends on Upcoming Parliamentary Elections – Jamestown
India
(Sejal Patel – Observer Research Foundation) Cities worldwide, and especially in the Global South, are grappling with rising costs of housing, which has led to the proliferation of underserved informal settlements for the poor. In India’s urban districts, this problem is exacerbated by inadequate delivery of serviced land in the city periphery, irrational building regulations, cumbersome approvals processes and transactions, challenges in accessing construction finance, and high-risk/low-yield rental housing. India’s urban housing market is therefore characterised by an oversupply of high-end housing, low levels of affordable housing, and an insignificant rental housing supply. – Aligning the centre with states and cities for affordable housing in India (orfonline.org)
(Anusha Bharadwaj – Brookings) As one of the fastest growing economies globally, India aims to achieve high middle-income status by 2047, in part through emphasizing women-led development. In a demographically young country, where one in every five people is 10 to 19 years old, how can India be women-led in the future without being girl-led now? – Voices of the future: How gender-transformative safe spaces strengthen girls’ agency in India (brookings.edu)
India – Africa
(Ruchita Beri – Vivekananda International Foundation) India’s President Draupadi Murmu’s visit to Algeria, Mauritania and Malawi from 13 -19 October 2024, has put the spotlight on India’s partnership with Africa. This visit comes in the backdrop of significant steps taken by India to showcase its special relationship with Africa. First, in 2018 during a visit to Uganda, Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated 10 principles of India-Africa engagement. The initial two principles reiterate that Africa is a ‘top priority’ and that India’s development partnership with African countries is guided by ‘African priorities.’ With this spirit, India has completed over 206 projects in 43 African countries through concessional loans of over US $ 12.37 billion. Second, during its G20 presidency last year, India welcomed African Union as a permanent member of the group. This move reflects India’s drive to ensure a greater voice of African countries in the multilateral forum. Third, at the recent 19th India- Africa Business Conclave organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) recognising the immense potential for collaboration, India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, called for doubling the bilateral trade to US $200 billion in the next seven years. At present, India is the fourth largest trading partner of Africa with bilateral trade of around US $ 100 billion and cumulative investments of US$75 billion. President Murmu’s visit will certainly give a boost to India’s partnership with African countries particularly in the sphere of higher education, digital infrastructure, food security and critical minerals. – India-Africa Partnership: Key Areas | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
India – Jammu – Kashmir
(Praveen Donthi – Crisis Group) On 8 October, India’s election commission announced the results of Jammu and Kashmir’s first regional elections in a decade, which amounted to a rebuke of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies toward the Himalayan region. The polls were also the first since Modi revoked the Muslim-majority region’s semi-autonomous status and downgraded it to a union territory under the control of the federal government in 2019. New Delhi had repeatedly postponed announcing a date for the polls until the Supreme Court ruled in December 2023 that the administration had to hold elections before the end of September 2024. The eventual polls saw the National Conference (NC), Kashmir’s oldest regional party, emerge as the largest political force, winning 42 of the regional legislature’s 90 seats. Because of its pre-electoral alliance with the Indian National Congress – India’s main opposition, which won six seats – the leader of the NC, Omar Abdullah, will once again become chief minister, a post he held from 2009 to 2015 when Jammu and Kashmir was still a full-fledged state. – Kashmir Votes to Repudiate Rule from the Centre | Crisis Group
Indonesia
(Rifky Pratama Wicaksono, Dewi Abiola Buchita Natakusuma – East Asia Forum) Indonesia faces a dual challenge as it seeks to leverage its demographic dividend while addressing the implications of an aging population. Declining marriage and fertility rates are being driven by economic pressures and shifting cultural norms. To navigate this shifting landscape, Indonesia must empower its younger generation, enhance human capital and implement family-friendly policies. Collaborative efforts among ministries, local governments and the private sector are crucial to ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for all. – Family-friendly policies can help keep Indonesia’s demographics in the ‘sweet spot’ | East Asia Forum
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Albert Vidal Ribe – IISS) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are expanding their economic and diplomatic influence in sub-Saharan Africa, but security cooperation and arms trade remain minimal for most of the bloc’s members. – The GCC and sub-Saharan security: equipment supplies above all (iiss.org)
(IISS) With substantial government and foreign investment in its technology sector, the United Arab Emirates is poised to become a major player in the global market for artificial intelligence, data infrastructure and cloud services. Yet it also faces risks in these areas due to great-power rivalries and competition from ambitious and capable neighbours. – The UAE’s technology ambitions (iiss.org)
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) It is intrinsic to warfare that economic assets are destroyed, but conflicts usually don’t generate economic devastation on the scale inflicted in Gaza. The value of economic activity in Gaza in the first quarter of 2024 was 86 percent below pre-war levels, with studies from both the World Bank and the United Nations Commission on Trade and Development describing its economic collapse. – Gaza’s economy: GDP down 86 percent, most businesses destroyed | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Michael Knights – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy/Hudson Institute) On May 22, 2024, Iraqi Minister of Higher Education Naeem al-Aboudi made his second trip to the United Kingdom to discuss new initiatives for joint educational programs. The trip created pleasing images of Anglo-Iraqi cooperation, but few of the people Aboudi met likely realized that he is the cabinet member controlled by U.S.-designated terrorist movement Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), a group that has killed scores of Americans and Britons since its formation by Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah in 2006. – Embracing Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq: Pragmatism or Naiveté? | Hudson Institute
(Alex Vatanka, Yoel Guzansky, Fadi Nicholas Nassar, Gerald M. Feierstein, Brian Katulis, Mirette F. Mabrouk – Middle East Institute) What Tehran ends up doing — whether continuing to prioritize the fight against Israel or looking for ways to deprioritize it as a national security matter — will not be settled in the foreseeable future. Without any pledges of support from regional neighbors, Iran is on its own and will focus on its preexisting two-pronged strategy: to avoid direct war with Israel on the one hand but to push for Israel’s delegitimization on the international stage whenever feasible on the other. – Weekly Briefing: Iran’s growing burden of confronting Israel | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, underscoring the importance of preserving the international norm against the first use of nuclear weapons amid Russia’s increasing nuclear brinkmanship. Putin has placed himself into an awkward position where his frequent nuclear brinkmanship and warnings about the growing risk of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO are perceived as ritualistic figures of speech. Russia aspires to be a key player in a multi-polar world, but its aggression against Ukraine undercuts and compromises its status, aligning the country with rogue states such as Iran and North Korea. – Unwinnable Wars, Risks of Escalation, and the Nuclear Taboo – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Community, a Kremlin-backed group of far-right Russian nationalists, has increasingly been attacking marginalized communities such as non-ethnic Russians, immigrants, LGBTQ+ individuals, and abortion doctors. The Russian Community works with the Russian security agencies, but the government is not yet ready to take direct responsibility for the Russian Community’s acts of violence, similar to the role of the Black Hundreds movement at the end of the tsarist period. The Russian Community has rapidly grown from a marginal group into the largest far-right organization in Russia. Its actions are radicalizing its opponents, increasing the likelihood of violent clashes between the oppressed, on the one hand, the Russian Community, and the state, on the other. – Russian Community Extremists Becoming the Black Hundreds of Today – Jamestown
Slovakia – USA
(Pavol Demeš – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Interest in the US presidential election in Slovakia is much greater this year than in the past. Key media have been paying attention for months and there have been several polls on this issue. This is not only because of the United States’ importance for the country in the context of the transatlantic community, but also due to the turbulences in the international arena and the deterioration of the security situation in Europe. – Slovakia’s Security-First Approach to the US Election | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Sri Lanka
(Gulbin Sultana – Manohar Parrikar Institute) In the Sri Lankan presidential election held on 21 September 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected as the ninth Executive President. The challenge for the new president is to meet the expectations of his supporters, win the trust of those who did not vote for him, and seek majority support during the forthcoming parliamentary election. The prognosis for India–Sri Lanka relations under the new administration looks positive. – 2024 Presidential Election in Sri Lanka: An Analysis | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
