From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : AUKUS, Australia-China, Austria, China-USA, Germany, Indonesia-BRICS, Japan, Middle East, New Zealand, Syria, Vietnam
AUKUS
(Adam Leslie – ASPI The Strategist) The AUKUS defence partnership of Australia, the UK and US has made remarkable progress since its establishment in September 2021, though it also faces emerging challenges. After decades of frustrated attempts at reform of US defence-technology export regulations, the past three years have demonstrated what bipartisan congressional courage and masterful diplomacy can achieve when aligned with strategic necessity. – AUKUS: Beyond submarines, a blueprint for allied Industrial Integration | The Strategist
Australia – China
(Simeon Gilding – ASPI The Strategist) Australia has a new framework for dealing with high-risk technology vendors, though the government isn’t brave enough to call them that. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke says the framework ‘will ensure the government strikes the right balance in managing security risks while ensuring Australia continues to take advantage of economic opportunities’. An alternative reading would be that it’s an opaque, toothless framework that gives the government wiggle room to minimise risk to the China relationship by increasing risk to our digital sovereignty. – Tiptoeing around China: Australia’s framework for technology vendor review | The Strategist
Austria
(Laura Kulterer, Zoe Lefkofridi – Australian Institute of International Affairs) For the majority of Austrians, voting for the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ)—known for its numerous scandals and close ties to (Neo-) National Socialism—used to be socially unacceptable; moreover, its supporters were overwhelmingly male. The last parliamentary election demonstrates that this is not the case anymore. – The Rise of the Far-Right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in Austria and its Implications for Democracy, Gender Rights, European Integration, and Migration – Australian Institute of International Affairs
China – USA
(Syed Ali Zia Jaffery – Australian Institute of International Affairs) US bid to confront China will further deteriorate Sino-US political relations, making arms control all the more difficult. Understanding how Chinese leaders frame the issue, while toning down the rhetoric, is likely to go further toward developing mutual security in arms control negotiations. – Why Trump 2.0 is Not Good News for Sino-US Arms Control – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Germany
(Mikaela Lui – Lowy The Interpreter) Germany is hurtling towards an unexpected election. In December, German President Steinmeier dissolved the current government to enable the 23 February poll. Significant losses by major parties in last year’s regional elections in former East German states to populist parties Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) point towards a significant shake-up on a federal level. With little time to campaign, Germany’s political parties used the Christmas break to whip up their election platforms. – Foreign policy challenges loom in Germany’s election | Lowy Institute
Indonesia – BRICS
(Fitriani – ASPI The Strategist) Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS is no strategic pivot but a continuation of its multi-alignment foreign policy. However, Indonesia will need to navigate internal BRICS dynamics while maintaining ties with the West and its leadership role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. – Joining BRICS, Indonesia sticks with multi-alignment strategy | The Strategist
Japan
(Shujiro Urata – East Asia Forum) After three ‘lost decades’ of economic performance, wages in Japan showed signs of positive growth in 2024. To deliver sustained increases to real wages, Japan must improve labour productivity growth. Whether the ‘new trinity’ of labour market reforms will successfully do so requires policymakers to address structural labour market challenges faced by both workers and employers. Due to their complexity and sensitivity, this is far easier said than done. – Japan’s new labour market reforms need to go further | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(The Soufan Center) Negotiators in Doha say an agreement has been reached on a phased process to end the conflict in the Gaza Strip, with final, minor details being worked out. The agreement appears to fall short of Israel’s demand that Hamas’ military infrastructure in Gaza be eliminated, and arrangements for governing the enclave remain unclear. Some attribute Israel’s acceptance of the accord to President-elect Donald Trump’s insistence the Gaza conflict end before his inauguration on January 20. Whether the ceasefire holds over the longer term might depend on whether Hamas seeks to govern post-war Gaza or rebuild its military capabilities there. – Gaza Deal Reached Between Hamas and Israel – The Soufan Center
New Zealand
(Christina Leung, Ting Huang – East Asia Forum) New Zealand’s economic outlook for 2025 is one of cautious optimism. Despite an economic contraction in 2024, the Reserve Bank’s successful efforts in curbing inflation and the cuts to interest rates that followed have restored some consumer and business confidence. Interest rates are expected to continue dropping, with the effects of rate cuts on the economy likely to become more apparent as many households face reduced mortgage repayments at the repricing of their mortgage rates. But persistent challenges such as slower labour productivity, an ageing population and a delayed budget surplus suggest a tempered recovery. Global uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, further complicate the outlook, but New Zealand remains hopeful for 2025. – Interest rate cuts spark cautious optimism in New Zealand | East Asia Forum
Syria
(Crisis Group) No one was ready for the Assad regime’s collapse. The breakneck speed of the rebel forces’ advance caught everyone by surprise, as did Bashar al-Assad’s abrupt departure for exile on 8 December 2024. Two weeks later, on a visit to Damascus, one could still observe disbelief mixed in with joy among the throngs celebrating in the streets. Some of the revellers were returning to the capital for the first time in years; others were arriving for the first time in their lives. Exhaustion was palpable, too, as was wariness of the challenges ahead – both among the crowds and in the presidential palace, where the former rebel leaders who launched the fateful offensive are working eighteen hours a day to set the course for Syria’s new era. – Key Decisions Loom as Syria Enters a New Era | Crisis Group
Vietnam
(David Brown – East Asia Forum) Following the death of Vietnam’s long-time leader Nguyen Phu Trong in July 2024, To Lam assumed leadership of the Communist Party. In his brief time in office, Lam has already made clear his intention to implement institutional reforms and streamline the nation’s party-state apparatus. Working alongside Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Lam’s plan is to create a leaner and more efficient political system, aiming to eliminate functional overlaps and improve performance within state agencies by the time the Party’s 14th Congress convenes in January 2026. – Vietnam’s new regime finds its footing | East Asia Forum
