- Sicurezza alimentata dall’energia (GMF, Ana Otilia Nutu). Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has put energy at the top of international political and security concerns. The implications for the Black Sea region are especially stark. European plans to accelerate decarbonization and diversification of supplies have profound security consequences since those plans could turn the countries in the area into models for the fundamental transformation of the energy sector expected in the next decades. Security Powered by Energy
- La spesa globale per la difesa: fattori strategici ed economici (IISS, Fenella McGerty). Global defence spending contracted in real terms for the second consecutive year in 2022, even as a full-scale war raged in Ukraine and tensions rose in East Asia. Inflation presented a key challenge for policymakers and served to erode increases to defence spending that were implemented. Global defence spending – strategic vs economic drivers
- Vertice NATO. Gli impegni di spesa per la difesa potrebbero superare l’obiettivo del 2%, dice Austin (Defense News,
- Trilaterale Francia-India-UAE: Aumentano gli impegni minilaterali dell’India (ORF, Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan). In the beginning of February, France, India, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) came together to announce a new trilateral partnership to work on a number of areas including defense, technology and energy. The three foreign ministers — Catherine Colonna of France, S. Jaishankar of India, and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the UAE — met for the first time in a trilateral format in September last year on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. The February 4 phone call involving the three foreign ministers was a follow up to “adopt a roadmap for implementation” of their trilateral initiative. France-India-UAE Trilateral: India’s Minilateral Engagements Ticks Up
- L’anno delle presidenze in India (RUSI, Veerle Nouwens). The current year is set to be a significant one for India, as it takes on both the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) presidencies – two landmark moments for the Modi government ahead of the highly anticipated general elections next year. Episode 46: India’s Year of Presidencies
- La marcia dell’India verso il raggiungimento della capacità ipersonica (VIF, Lt Gen (Dr) V K Saxena Retd). n 27 Jan 2023, the Abdul Kalam Island off the Odisha Coast was abuzz with hectic activity. At the countdown 5,4,3,2,1, now….. the Agni I Missile lifted off carrying the Hypersonic Technology Demonstration Vehicle (HSTDV) for the third time. The earlier two tests took place on 07 Sep 2020 and 12 Jun 2019 respectively. India’s March towards Achieving Hypersonic Capability
- La parata militare di Pyongyang: una minaccia imminente per Seul (ORF, Abhishek Kumar Singh). The rogue half of the Korean Peninsula, North Korea, is infamous for its military strength and nuclear weapons. If the blitzkrieg of missile testing in 2022 was not enough, the annual showcase of its military poses a threat to not only South Korea but also the United States (US). Pyongyang’s military parade: Posing an imminent threat to Seoul
- Corea del Nord: verso un ICBM a combustibile solido? (IISS, Joseph Dempsey). North Korea’s latest military parade re-emphasised the fact that the country has long sought to add a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile to its emergent strategic forces, a goal that may soon be realised. North Korea: towards a solid-fuel ICBM?
- Il “momento minilaterale” e l’architettura di sicurezza regionale nell’Indo-Pacifico (NIDS). The rise of China and its adoption to a more assertive international posture since the arrival of President Xi Jinping in office in 2012 portends further shifts in the regional balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. This in turn impacts upon the prevailing regional security order, which is now increasingly contested between China and the US and its allies, with ASEAN finding itself in the invidious position of being potentially caught in the “middle” of two opposing superpower blocs. Each of these parties has sought to advance its preferred “vision” of regional order, based upon national or collective interests, and this frequently finds expression through a variety of institutional instruments known as “security architecture”. In some ways this institutional architecture can be viewed as a “transmission belt” through which national and combined policies are executed with the inter-contestation among different organisations and ad hoc formations mediating the resultant or “prevailing” security order. commentary254e.pdf (mod.go.jp)
- Analisi della crisi dello Sri Lanka e prospettive (VIF, Anil Kumar). Since its independence in 1948, Sri Lanka faced its worst economic crisis in the year 2022. Initially, in 2022, the country was facing Omicron, a variant of Covid19, followed by deep political and economic distress throughout the year. Economic distress clearly appeared at the end of the first quarter of 2022, when the country ran out of fuel, immediately after the Ukraine crisis. Review of Sri Lanka Crisis and the Way Forward
- La crisi economica in Nepal: Sarà il prossimo Sri Lanka? (ORF, Hari Bansh Jha). For quite some time, the economy of Nepal is taking a downward turn. The previous government under Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and the present government under Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ adopted certain measures to revitalise the economy. The economic crisis in Nepal: Is it going to be the next Sri Lanka?
- Un anno difficile per la democrazia in Nepal (East Asia Forum, Rumela Sen, Naresh Gyawali). TS Eliot warned in his 1925 poem that the world ends ‘not with a bang but a whimper’. Almost a century later, this seems to be an apt description of Nepal’s struggle to maintain hope amid disillusionment and despair. A tough year for democracy in Nepal
- Il riarmo della Royal Australian Navy (The Strategist, David Shackleton). Much has been written on the importance of guided weapons and ensuring conflicts aren’t lost through a shortage of ammunition. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles’s observation about the need for ‘impactful projection’ implies that the Australian Defence Force’s firepower will be increased, and the intent to manufacture advanced guided weapons in Australia is a welcome development. Rearming the Royal Australian Navy
- La coalizione di governo australiana si mostra divisa sulle armi nucleari, mentre si profila la decisione di AUKUS (Breaking Defense, Colin Clark). An AUKUS announcement is “imminent,” Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said. “We’re in conversation with both the UK and the US around the manner in which that is ultimately announced.”. Australia’s ruling coalition shows split over nuclear weapons, as AUKUS decision looms
- Le norme statunitensi in materia di esportazioni necessitano di riforma se si vuole che AUKUS abbia successo (The Strategist, Rajiv Shah). The rapidly deteriorating strategic environment has led Australia and its allies to realise the imperative for closer collaboration on defence and security issues. The most striking evidence of this is the heralded AUKUS agreement to share sensitive defence technology, including nuclear submarine propulsion, but also covering several other areas. The leaders of the UK, the US and Australia have all been clear about the importance of making this agreement a success. However, at the practical level, a number of administrative barriers remain, and unless they are urgently addressed AUKUS is unlikely to succeed. US export rules need major reform if AUKUS is to succeed
- Gli Stati Uniti affermano che Saif al-Adel, iraniano, è il nuovo capo di Al Qaeda (The Defense Post). Saif al-Adel, an Iran-based Egyptian, has become the head of Al-Qaeda following the July 2022 death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the US State Department said Wednesday. US Says Iran-Based Saif al-Adel Is New Al Qaeda Chief
- Iran. Evoluzione della crisi, 15 febbraio 2023 (ISW, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan). Protest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regime demonstrations on February 16. Iran Update, February 15, 2023
- Gli sforzi di salvataggio in Siria sono rallentati dalla burocrazia e dal regime (Chatham House, Haid Haid). Help for Syrians following the devastating earthquakes is being hampered by the Assad regime’s control over aid flows and a slow-moving United Nations. Syrian rescue efforts slowed by bureaucracy and regime
- Medio Oriente. I rischi della de-escalation (Defense One, Bilal Y. Saab). At the wrong time and place, it can do more harm than good—as its Mideast track record shows. The Risks of De-escalation
- La nuova missione dell’UE potrebbe estromettere la Russia nell’accordo tra Armenia e Azerbaigian? (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Kirill Krivosheev). If the Europeans end up securing relative peace for Armenia and corroborate Azerbaijan’s border encroachments, it will be undeniable that Russia is not the only force Yerevan can rely on. Could the New EU Mission Sideline Russia in Armenia-Azerbaijan Settlement?
- La Germania invierà “mezzo battaglione” di carri armati in Ucraina (The Defense Post). Germany on Wednesday said it has “half a battalion” of Leopard 2 tanks to send to Ukraine, as NATO allies appear to struggle to muster the heavy vehicles pledged to Kyiv. Germany to Send ‘Half Battalion’ of Tanks to Ukraine
- Nuova offensiva russa in corso in Ucraina (The Jamestown Foundation, Hlib Parfonov). If at the end of 2022 it was assumed that Ukraine would be the first to attack to gain the initiative on the battlefield, more recent calculations have posited that the Russians will strike first and appear to be gearing up for their next massive offensive, though the Ukrainian Armed Forces stand ready to repel such maneuvers (Meduza, January 4). Indeed, the anticipated Russian offensive seems to already be underway (Euractiv, February 14). New Russian Offensive Underway in Ukraine
- Russia-Ucraina. Evoluzione della guerra, 15 febbraio 2023 (ISW, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, Kita Fitzpatrick, and Frederick Kagan). Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023
- L’Europa può influenzare la rivalità tra Stati Uniti e Cina? (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Judy Dempsey). The EU’s economic clout makes it an important partner for both Washington and Beijing. But Europe lacks internal unity to effectively respond to U.S.-Chinese competition. Judy Asks: Can Europe Influence U.S.-China Rivalry?
- L’UE, nuovo pacchetto di sanzioni per la Russia e i droni iraniani (Defense News, Raf Casert). The European Union is considering a new set of sanctions totaling €11 billion ($11.7 billion) against Russia and some third countries providing vital goods that Moscow uses to boost its troops on the battlegrounds in Ukraine. EU seeks new Russia sanctions package, targets Iran’s drones
- Babcock si aggiudica l’appalto da 480 milioni di dollari per la gestione del programma Skynet SATCOM della Gran Bretagna (Defense News, Andrew Chuter). Babcock International has secured a deal to run the ground elements of the British military’s Skynet satellite communications system. Babcock wins $480 million bid to run Britain’s Skynet SATCOM program
- USA. Strategia nazionale di contrasto alla Corea del Nord (CSIS, Victor Cha). In this episode, Dr. Victor Cha is joined by Ambassador Robert Joseph and Greg Scarlatoiu to discuss their recently released report for the National Institute for Public Policy regarding North Korea’s current human rights situation, the Kim family regime, and the North Korean human rights movement ten years after the UN Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the DPRK. National Strategy for Countering North Korea | The Impossible State
- La politica migratoria degli Stati Uniti e i “nonstate groups): Lezioni dalla Libia (Brookings, Reva Dhingra). In recent months, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has adopted a series of measures to respond to the record number of migrants and asylum-seekers at the U.S. southern border last year. This has included expanding the controversial Title 42 policy, which has been used by both the Trump and Biden administrations to expel migrants and asylum-seekers without asylum hearings on the grounds that doing so would prevent the spread of COVID-19. US migration policy and nonstate groups: Lessons from Libya
- Brett McGurk presenta la “dottrina Biden” per il Medio Oriente (Atlantic Council). Below are the remarks of White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk as delivered at the Atlantic Council’s inaugural Rafik Hariri Awards, celebrating the tenth anniversary of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, in Washington on February 14, 2023. Brett McGurk sets out the ‘Biden doctrine’ for the Middle East
- Gli Stati Uniti collaborano con i paesi “Five Eyes” e il Giappone per la “information warfare” (Defense News, Colin Demarest). The U.S. is consulting with its “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing partners and additional allies to share and sharpen information-warfare techniques in the Indo-Pacific. US working with ‘Five Eyes’ nations, Japan on information warfare
- USA. Il capo del Progetto Overmatch della Marina Militare spinge per una sinergia internazionale (Defense News, Colin Demarest). U.S. Navy networking specialists shepherding the service’s secretive Project Overmatch are invested in international cooperation and connectivity, as Washington and its allies foresee a greater need to collaborate on the battlefields of the future. Navy’s Project Overmatch boss pushing hard for international synergy
- USA. Il quadro di gestione del rischio dell’IA del NIST e il dibattito sull’intelligenza artificiale (Brookings, Cameron F. Kerry). The National Institute of Standards & Technology (NIST) issued Version 1.0 of its Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF) on January 26, 2023 – a multi-tool for organizations to design and manage trustworthy and responsible artificial intelligence (AI). As the United States and other leaders develop policies to address the possibilities and problems of AI, this framework adds coherence to evolving U.S. policy on AI and contributes to ongoing international debate about AI policy and development. NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework plants a flag in the AI debate
