From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Counterterrorism; Europe-Russia; Georgia; Middle East & North Afrrica; Russia; Scenarios; Sudan; Thailand-Cambodia; US
Counterterrorism
(The Soufan Center) Several deadly terrorist attacks and a disrupted plot over the weekend, including in Australia, Syria, and Germany, highlight the continued threat posed by violent extremists and jihadists. Two terrorists targeted a Hanukkah event in Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, killing 12 and injuring dozens more, in what was the deadliest attack against Jews since the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack in southern Israel. In Palmyra, Syria, an Islamic State (IS) member infiltrated the Syrian security services and launched an attack that killed three Americans, sparking growing concerns about more ‘green-on-blue’ incidents. In Bavaria, Germany, authorities arrested five men who planned to conduct a vehicle ramming attack against a Christmas market, a recurring tactic and target in IS-inspired and facilitated plots. – Recent Attacks and Plots Highlight the Importance of Maintaining Counterterrorism Capabilities – The Soufan Center
Europe-Russia
(Gabrielius Landsbergis – Chatham House) Vladimir Putin is a known storyteller. In his rambling tales, the Russian president recasts the Rurik dynasty as the origin of Russian, not Ukrainian, history and the justification for Russia’s false claim to the independent, sovereign nation of Ukraine. Tucker Carlson, the American journalist, famously broadcast Putin retelling this saga to the world in 2024. When Putin repeated it behind closed doors at their Alaska meeting last summer, President Donald Trump was so bored, he had to ask Putin to skip it , reports claimed. To lend his story gravitas, Putin re-arranges the biographies of the Cossacks, Catherine the Great, Lenin and others. Doing so allows Russia to look beyond its borders for Russian speakers to ‘defend’, or to identify borders that need redrawing according to a centuries-old fairytale. Pseudohistory is just one of the tools Putin uses to control the narrative and justify his expansionist ideology. Another is weaponized geopolitical victimhood, often delivered in diatribes about Nato enlargement. By this logic, just as the Treaty of Versailles humiliated Germany after the First World War, NATO enlargement in the 1990s humiliated the defeated Soviet Union. – Europe needs a doctrine to halt Putin’s expansionist ambitions | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Georgia
(Tinatin Khidasheli – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian Dream has shifted from being ostensibly pro-Western partnership to aggressive anti-Western rhetoric, weaponizing terms like “Deep State” and “Global War Party” to discredit Western institutions, diplomats, and domestic political opposition. The ruling party increasingly attacks European and U.S. officials—including ambassadors—using conspiratorial narratives, Nazi analogies, and accusations of foreign-orchestrated revolution, severely damaging Georgia’s diplomatic relations with the West. Georgian Dream reframes EU and NATO integration as a threat that could drag Georgia into war, portraying itself as the sole defender of peace while leveraging fear of renewed conflict with Russia. This rhetoric serves Georgian Dream’s strategic aims: consolidating domestic control, hedging geopolitically toward Russia and the People’s Republic of China, and undermining Western criticism of Georgia’s autocratic turn. – Georgian Dream Shifting from Western Partner to Provocateur – Jamestown
Middle East & North Africa
(Ellen Clarke – IISS) Behind the rush in the MENA region to develop renewable-energy capacity is the continued exploitation of fossil fuels to achieve economic growth amid worsening climate pressures on agriculture and water. Economic security, not reduction of emissions, is at the core of this expansion of states’ energy supplies. – The race for renewables in the Middle East and North Africa
Russia
(Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Victory in Ukraine will prove elusive without finding ways to counter Russia’s use of illicit maritime trade to sustain its war economy. That is, Ukraine and its Western backers need to resurrect the idea of commerce raiding and broad-based economic war to bust the ghost fleet and impose costs on Putin’s war machine. In the twenty-first century, states can conduct commerce raiding without ever firing a shot, effectively using open-source intelligence to support diplomacy, lawfare, and sanctions designed to attack a rival state’s economy. By finding ways to aggregate open-source data, the United States can support broader international efforts to restrict Russian illicit maritime trade. – Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet
(Elina Ribakova, Lucas Risinger – Atlantic Council) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eurasia Center’s new “Russia Tomorrow” series seeks to reevaluate conceptions of Russia today and better prepare for its future tomorrow. – The Russian economy in 2025: Between stagnation and militarization – Atlantic Council
Scenarios
(Chatham House) Experts highlight the crunch moments and potential flashpoints in the year ahead. – The world in 2026 | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Sudan
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) Al-Misbah Abuzaid Talha rose from a little-known civilian Islamist activist to commander of the al-Bara’ bin Malik Brigade (BBMB), the most prominent Islamist militia fighting alongside the Sudanese Armed Forces in the civil war. He has leveraged charisma, media savvy, and ideological commitment rather than military experience. The BBMB has become a powerful, well-equipped force with Iranian-supplied drones and tens of thousands of fighters, creating mounting tension with the SAF as Talha and other Islamist leaders pursue political influence and challenge military authority. Regional governments—especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt—have detained Talha out of concern for an Islamist resurgence, while his growing prominence positions him as a likely political actor in any post-war settlement, potentially reviving the military–Islamist alliance that ruled Sudan for decades. – Al-Misbah Abuzaid Talha: Charismatic Islamist Militiaman in Sudan – Jamestown
Thailand-Cambodia
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) The border conflict with Cambodia could change electoral politics in Thailand, as voters could rally around the flag and abandon—at least temporarily—some of their support for economic and military reforms. – Thailand Calls a Snap Election During a Border War: What It All Means | Council on Foreign Relations
US
(Abi McGowan and Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) President Trump has repeatedly claimed to have ended eight wars since he returned to office. Accessing critical minerals and resource extraction appear to be at the core of those diplomatic efforts. – Behind Trump’s Peace Efforts: A Strategic Focus on Critical Minerals | Council on Foreign Relations
