Complex research (by Marco Emanuele):
Evoluzione, involuzione, progresso / Evolution, involution, progress | The Global Eye
L’orologio della storia va avanti / The clock of history marches on | The Global Eye
Pensiero complesso, nel dubbio / Complex thinking, in doubt | The Global Eye
Laboratori di pensiero complesso / Complex thinking laboratories | The Global Eye
La (vera) politica è umano-planetaria / (True) politics is human-planetary | The Global Eye
I futuri che ci aspettano / The futures that await us | The Global Eye
Tempi duri per il pensiero / Hard times for thinking | The Global Eye
Distinzioni fondamentali / Fundamental distinctions | The Global Eye
L’assoluto della sicurezza lineare / Absolute linear security | The Global Eye
Disumanità / Inhumanity | The Global Eye
From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Argentina; Gaza-Israel; Haiti; Iran-US; Middle East (PMF Dissolution-Iran-Houthi Relations-Hezbollah Disarmament); Somalia; Turkey; US; US-Brazil-Brics; US-Russia-Ukraine
Argentina
(Jason Marczak and Ignacio Albe – Atlantic Council) Expectations regarding the potential success of Argentina’s economic reforms continue to rise. But do these expectations match reality? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to think so. On July 31, its executive board completed the first review of Argentina’s Extended Fund Facility signed back in April. The result was a positive one for Buenos Aires: The multilateral institution praised Argentina’s strong policy implementation, and it unlocked a new two-billion-dollar disbursement. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva commended the government’s “zero-overall deficit target,” noting that “it remains the key policy anchor.”. In December 2024, as President Javier Milei of Argentina was wrapping up his first year in office, we wrote that those initial twelve months would be remembered as a surprisingly strong start to an ambitious reform agenda, urgently needed for a country mired in crisis and stagnation. That statement remains true today. From adhering to his promise of fiscal discipline to further liberalizing Argentina’s economy, Milei has defied the odds set by the bedeviled economy that he inherited, and he has helped place Argentina back on track. Though the road to long-term growth remains full of uncertainties, Argentina has recovered a sense of optimism, one that had been absent for years. – A milestone on Argentina’s long road to recovery – Atlantic Council
Gaza – Israel
(Ehud Yaari – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) There are no easy answers to the question of what Israel should do in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is demanding a complete Israeli surrender in exchange for releasing the remaining hostages, whom it has bandied about in horrific videos. The only option is to cope intelligently and soberly with a situation that is borderline impossible. On August 8, Mr. Netanyahu had his cabinet adopt a resolution to “take control” of Gaza City after moving its population of 800,000 to the southern sector of the Strip. The target date was set to October 7, but few take this threat seriously, especially in view of the IDF’s grave doubts about the wisdom of the idea and its practical implications. One also has to keep in mind the fatigue of the combat units after almost two years of fighting, during which tens of thousands of reservists were called to serve for unprecedentedly long periods. – Make Hamas Face a Choice | The Washington Institute
(UN News) Without an urgent and unrestricted flow of aid, Gaza’s already dire humanitarian crisis could deteriorate further, the UN warned on Friday. In his regular daily briefing, UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric highlighted that ongoing delays, bottlenecks at holding points and interference in the loading process at crossing platforms are undermining efforts to collect and distribute supplies to those in need. “It is imperative that the UN and its humanitarian partners are enabled to deliver aid at scale, using community-based mechanisms to reach the most vulnerable,” he said. – UN warns Gaza crisis could worsen without safe, unrestricted aid flow | UN News
(UN News) When Israeli forces in Gaza issue a new displacement order ahead of an incursion into a neighbourhood or city, Palestinian civilians are expected to pack their bags and flee – perhaps for the third, fourth, or tenth time. But for an increasing number of Palestinians, including those who cannot hear the orders or whose mobility is impaired, following these orders may be impossible. Yet, failure to do so, could cost them their lives. “In a normal situation, people with disabilities suffer the most. And in wartime, of course, the situation is heightened further,” said Muhannad Salah Al-Azzeh, member of the UN Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities at a public dialogue this week in Geneva. With the number of disabled people in Gaza increasing every day, Mr. Al-Azzeh said that the minimum level of safety for people with disabilities is not being upheld. – Trapped in Gaza: Palestinians with disabilities cannot reach aid | UN News
Haiti
(UN News) With armed gangs expanding their influence, self-defence groups morphing into gang-like entities and public officials acting with impunity, Haiti is slowly becoming something like the Wild West, according to William O’Neill, the UN’s designated expert on human rights for the Caribbean island nation. And if you ask Mr. O’Neill what is creating conditions akin to the Wild West, the answer is desperation. With over 1.3 million Haitians displaced and half of the country going hungry, desperation is not some abstract idea in Haiti — it is a lived reality. Nevertheless, Mr. O’Neill remains hopeful that the devastation in Haiti can be stopped — if only the world is willing to commit to it. – ‘The Wild West’: Desperation is rampant in Haiti as gangs, vigilantes spread | | UN News
Iran – US
(The Soufan Center) Late last month, the United States, the United Kingdom, and a dozen other Western nations jointly condemned what they said was the growing threat posed by Iranian intelligence agents planning covert activities on Western soil. In the lead-up to and in the aftermath of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program in late June, FBI Director Kash Patel increased efforts to monitor possible domestic sleeper cells linked to Hezbollah in the United States. Iran has made numerous direct threats against the U.S. and its officials over the years, and in some cases has moved forward with plots to assassinate high-ranking Americans, including the President, although these plots have been foiled. It is unlikely that Iran will cease targeting U.S. officials, military installations, or intelligence assets in the United States until its leaders feel that they have avenged the death of Soleimani and/or responded to the recent U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. – Could Iran Seek to Attack the U.S. Homeland? – The Soufan Center
Middle East
(Avery Borens, Nidal Morrison, Ben Schmida, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Adham Fattah, Carolyn Moorman, Adam Jacoff, and Annika Ganzeveld – Institute for the Study of War) PMF Dissolution: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi published a statement on August 15 in which he called for strengthening Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, likely in response to recent US efforts to weaken the Axis of Resistance. Hamidawi underlined the necessity of “supporting” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias with advanced weapons, enhanced technical capabilities, and improved “defensive and destructive capacities.”
Iran-Houthi Relations: Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati emphasized Iranian support for the Houthis during a meeting with the Houthi representative to Iran on August 14. Velayati denied that the Axis of Resistance has weakened and underlined the Houthis’ pivotal role in the Axis of Resistance’s war against Israel in a meeting with Houthi Representative to Iran Ibrahim al Dailami.
Hezbollah Disarmament: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem threatened to incite anti-government protests in Lebanon if the Lebanese government attempts to disarm Hezbollah during a speech on August 15. Qassem reiterated that Hezbollah will not surrender its weapons until Israel halts its operations and withdraws from southern Lebanon. – Iran Update, August 15, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Somalia
(UN News) For many countries in crisis, brain drain can feel like an unbreakable loop. Armed conflict, climate shocks and economic downturn drive out local experts who take with them the know-how that is essential to reversing the crisis. So the crisis continues. And the brain drain intensifies. But what if there was a way to reverse brain drain? This is the question that the International Organization of Migration (IOM) has been asking about Somalia. – A two-way street: Reversing brain drain in Somalia | UN News
Turkey
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The director of the Institute’s Turkish Research Program testifies on why Ankara remains vitally important to U.S. policy in the Middle East and the great power arena despite its major domestic shifts in mosque-state relations under President Erdogan. – Freedom of Religion in Turkey: Foreign Policy Implications | The Washington Institute
US
(Max Yoeli – Chatham House) Just over six months into the second Trump administration, the White House has declared it is delivering on its promise to ‘Make America Wealthy Again.’ The economy has indeed proven resilient despite policy whiplash, but underneath exuberant markets and splashy deals, warning signs are emerging. As policymakers and market participants weigh vexing decisions ahead, the president has been accused of eroding confidence in vital economic data and institutions. These actions hinder efforts to understand and respond to shifting economic conditions, with ramifications for the US and global economies. Following a spate of self-described wins, the administration is touting the success of its ‘America First economic agenda’. Economic growth rebounded in the second quarter; major stock indexes are near records; tariff revenue jumped; and the White House announced eye-popping investment commitments from companies and trading partners. The administration has not been shy about taking credit, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick proclaiming, ‘the Trump Economy has officially arrived’. But beyond framing and optics, durable results may prove elusive. – Trust and the Trump Economy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Brazil – BRICS
(Mariano Aguirre Ernst – Chatham House) The US Trump administration has launched an unprecedented attack on Brazil’s government and judicial system. Alongside 50 per cent tariffs on Brazilian imports, the US has imposed sanctions on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes who is prosecuting former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro for plotting to overturn the 2022 election result. This attack on Brazil is partly linked to Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda through which the US has built relationships with many anti-democratic leaders. But it is also a clumsy reaction to the global trend towards reforming the international system for which the US wants to punish BRICS countries like Brazil. However, Trump’s plan could backfire. It risks undermining the global economy, increasing international delegitimization of the US and could strengthen Brazil’s alliances with China, Europe and the Global South. – Trump is attacking Brazil to weaken BRICS – but his plan might backfire | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Russia – Ukraine
(Atlantic Council) “We didn’t get there.” This was the verdict US President Donald Trump delivered after a nearly three-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Russian and US heads of state since the start of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Trump had trekked to Alaska hoping to set in motion a cease-fire in Russia’s war. Putin got away with not even agreeing on a pause. Indeed, Russian forces attacked Ukraine during the meeting. Both presidents raised the possibility of another meeting—perhaps in Moscow—but made no firm commitments. So, what’s next for Ukraine and for Trump’s peace-seeking process? – Experts react: Trump and Putin just left Alaska without a deal. Here’s what that means for Russia’s war on Ukraine. – Atlantic Council
(Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Jennie Olmsted, Daria Novikov, Anna Harvey, Justin Young, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15.
Putin said nothing in the joint press conference to indicate that he has moderated either his war aims or his willingness to compromise on them and reiterated language he has used since 2021 to justify Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Trump stated that the United States and Russia did not come to a firm agreement about the war in Ukraine.
Russia conducted drone and missile strikes in Ukraine in the hours before the August 15 Alaska summit, causing civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian counterattacks are stabilizing the situation east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk).
The Russian military command is reportedly trying to redeploy forces and means to reinforce and exploit the penetration near Dobropillya but has so far been unsuccessful.
Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on August 14 to 15.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
