From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China, Iran, Middle East, NATO, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Syria, US-Canada
China
(Ryan D. Martinson – The Jamestown Foundation) Fujian Province’s new “Measures for Guaranteeing Militia Rights and Interests” aim to incentivize maximum readiness for forces who likely will be key in any campaign against Taiwan. The measures provide financial support and other perks in an attempt to motivate troops and promote the professionalization of the militia. The measures do not signal that the PRC will go to war tomorrow, and so far Fujian is the only province to have issued such measures. – Fujian’s Unveils Incentives for Militia Training for a Cross-Strait Campaign – Jamestown
(K. Tristan Tang – The Jamestown Foundation) Corruption within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has stymied efforts to deepen coordination in the military-industrial sector and related military equipment departments. The substance of Xi Jinping’s speech to military delegates at the Two Sessions was similar to his 2019 speech, focusing on issues related to the military-civil fusion and the “integrated national system.”. No previous meeting has featured such a comprehensive list of participants involved exclusively in the military development process. This year’s participants also were mostly front-line unit personnel rather than high-ranking officers, suggesting Xi may be suspicious of information provided by the upper echelons of the military. – Xi Struggles to Keep Military Construction Reform on Course at Two Sessions – Jamestown
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The annual “Two Sessions” meetings in Beijing are increasingly insignificant affairs, as the lack of genuine policy announcements and restrictions on delegates reduces the space for consultation and deliberation. The government unveiled a new RMB 1 trillion national innovation investment guidance fund, but details are scant and its announcement was relegated to a press conference rather than in a policy document. The new fund will be set up “in the near future” and focuses on strategic early stage “hard science and technology” investments, but its prospects for success are unclear given the track record of previous government guidance funds. – The Increasing Insignificance of the Two Sessions – Jamestown
(Melanie Hart – Atlantic Council) This week, Beijing concluded its annual “two sessions”—the big plenary meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The NPC is China’s legislature, and the CPPCC is a larger, more representative (and largely powerless) group that provides advice to the NPC. In China’s authoritarian system, this is the annual pageantry the Chinese Communist Party goes through to claim that it governs through so-called “whole process people’s democracy” rather than strongman authoritarianism. In reality, of course, the party—and increasingly the strongman at the top—makes the real decisions, while the NPC largely serves as a performative rubber stamp. The pageantry is important, however, as it demonstrates what the party believes it needs to signal to its people and the world. Five notable signals stood out at this year’s two sessions. – Five takeaways from Beijing’s largest annual political meetings – Atlantic Council
Iran
(Sanam Vakil, Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi – Chatham House) 2025 is the year the Iran nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA, signed in 2015, is set to formally expire. The deal has been on life support since the US withdrew in 2018 under the first Trump administration. Efforts at reviving it, or reaching a longer and stronger agreement, have failed amid a trust deficit, US ‘maximum pressure’ policy, and geopolitical and regional crises – particularly the Gaza war. When the JCPOA expires, so too will the few remaining enforcement tools that allow some pressure to be exerted on Tehran – including snapback sanctions, which can be invoked by any party at the United National Security Council (UNSC). – The US and Iran are on the road to escalation. Europe can and should create an off-ramp | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Middle East
(Neomi Neumann, Harel Chorev, Tamar Hermann, Ghaith al-Omari, David Schenker – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) What do Palestinians, Israelis, and external players see as the best option for Gaza and its people now that the first phase of the ceasefire is complete? – Gaza Phase 2: Sorting Out the Political and Security Scenarios | The Washington Institute
NATO
(David Julazadeh – Atlantic Council) In today’s fast-evolving security environment, NATO finds itself at a critical crossroads. Rapid technological advances and shifting geopolitics mean that while adversaries swiftly deploy disruptive technologies, test NATO’s deterrence, and reshape the global landscape, the Alliance remains hampered by slow, cumbersome processes for developing and delivering vital capabilities. NATO cannot afford to be reactive. The choice is stark: Will NATO develop, acquire, and deliver common-funded capabilities at the speed of operational need? Or will it remain mired in bureaucracy while adversaries surge ahead? – NATO’s capability development: A call for urgent reform – Atlantic Council
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Atlantic Council) Not nyet, at least not yet. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first public remarks in response to the Trump administration’s efforts to broker a thirty-day cease-fire in Russia’s war in Ukraine. “The idea itself is correct, and we certainly support it,” Putin said, before saying that the details needed to be discussed further and any deal must address the war’s “root causes.” Then Putin met with US President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff into the wee hours of Friday—with neither the White House nor the Kremlin sharing much about how those talks went. – What game is Putin playing in the cease-fire talks? – Atlantic Council
Syria
(Chatham House) Haid Haid, Rim Turkmani, and Lina Khatib discuss the recent developments in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. We delve into the country’s economic struggles, the rise of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the resurgence of sectarian violence, and the challenges facing Syria’s path to democracy. It also explores the roles of regional and international players, including Turkey, Israel and Iran, in shaping Syria’s future. – Independent Thinking: Will Syria’s new leader rescue or destroy the country? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Canada
(Cy McGeady, Bridgette Schafer – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Electricity flows between the United States and Canada have suddenly emerged as collateral damage in an escalating trade dispute between the two nations. Historically, electricity has flowed between the two nations free of tariffs. That changed when the Trump administration instituted an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent on Canadian energy products, which appears likely to apply to electricity. In response, the premier of Ontario imposed a 25 percent tariff on electricity exports from the Canadian province, which has since been retracted. While future developments remain uncertain, it is apparent that the electric system—which drives lower consumer costs and improves reliability on both sides of the border—is at risk of significant disruption. – Consequences of U.S.-Canada Electricity Tariffs
(Michael Froman, Council on Foreign Relations) The Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada this week and threats of annexation have strained the U.S.-Canada partnership, fueling Canadian nationalism and causing steep retaliatory measures. – What’s the Matter With Canada? | Council on Foreign Relations
