From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Australia; Australia-Japan; China; Dayton Peace Accords-Bosnia Herzegovina; Global Economy; India; India-Southeast Asia; Indonesia; Japan; Thailand-Cambodia; US-Africa
Australia
(David Wroe – ASPI The Strategist) What do you say at a moment like this? Even to a skilled wielder of words, almost everything is inadequate, which is why well-meaning politicians tend to flail about in great cobwebs of cliches. How much should we try to capture only the pure humanity? How much should we bring in politics? When do the two meet and overlap, and when should they be kept carefully apart? Whoever you are, wherever you stand politically and whatever friendships and social circles you belong to, politics will creep into your conversations about the tragedy of the 14 December Bondi Beach terror attack, in which two men killed at least 15 people. One thing I’ve come to accept at times like this is that it’s okay—indeed often better—to keep certain thoughts to yourself, at least while people’s pain is so raw and the atmosphere so combustible. – Bondi terror: sometimes we just need to pause and reflect | The Strategist
(Chris Taylor – ASPI The Strategist) There’s much we don’t know, less than 24 hours after the 14 December atrocity at Bondi Beach. But we do know it was the worst terrorist attack ever carried out on Australian soil. It specifically targeted Jewish Australians. It involved at least two people (now understood to be father and son), and they had access to what in Australia would be regarded as high-powered weapons. The attack, in which the two men shot and killed at least 15 people during a Jewish festival, defiled Bondi Beach, a place sacred in the national imagination. And it came after more than two years of escalating antisemitism and tolerance of associated political violence and disorder in Australia and internationally. A wide-ranging royal commission is needed to examine not just the attack itself but its policy and socio-cultural context. – Bondi terror: we’ll need a wide-ranging royal commission | The Strategist
(John Coyne and James Corera – ASPI The Strategist) The terror attack at Bondi Beach on Sunday should be understood not only as an act of violence but as a stress test of Australia’s security, social and policy systems. The immediate danger has passed. The more consequential question is what this event reveals about the community assumptions that have quietly taken hold—and what follows if those assumptions are left unchallenged. For many Australians, the violence collided with a deeply held belief: that the terror years were behind us, that the period that had justified nearly 25 years of counterterrorism legislation, regulatory oversight, intelligence reform and expanded police powers had closed. While official threat assessments have consistently warned that violence remains probable, public sentiment has arguably drifted towards the view that these frameworks were relics of a different time. – Bondi terror: attack reinforces the need for security frameworks that manage risk | The Strategist
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Last night’s violence at Bondi was confronting, brutal and deeply unsettling. It shattered the ordinary rhythms of a place that Australians associate with life, leisure and community. In moments like this, grief and fear arrive together. So too does a familiar secondary wave: speculation, outrage and the rapid search for someone or something to blame. That second wave matters. Because acts of mass violence aren’t only about physical harm; they’re also about emotional contagion. They’re designed, whether ideologically driven or not, to fracture social trust, amplify fear and provoke division. If we allow hatred, suspicion and dehumanisation to dominate the national response, then the violence succeeds in ways that extend far beyond the immediate victims. Australia must respond differently. – Bondi terror: our response must be unity, not division and distrust | The Strategist
(Caroline Wang – Australian Institute of International Affairs) BYD’s Brazil factory marks a clean-tech power shift: where China builds, countries reindustrialise and plug into the future of mobility. As Beijing anchors global net-zero supply chains, Australia faces a stark choice – integrate with Asia’s clean-energy ecosystem or watch the next industrial wave pass it by. – Beyond the Factory Floor: What BYD’s Brazil Breakthrough Signals for Australia – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Christopher Khatouki – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Australia’s critical minerals push is being sold as a strategic win, but it risks doubling down on a “dumb” commodity economy while locking Canberra deeper into U.S.-led geoeconomic rivalry. With China’s dominance already entrenched and processing environmentally costly and uncompetitive, the real danger is mistaking subsidised extraction for strategy – and sacrificing long-term industrial sovereignty for short-term alliance politics. – The Critical Minerals Trap: Why Australia Must Proceed with Caution – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Australia-Japan
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) The forces of globalisation that drove business and governments through the decades leading up to the 2007–08 Global Financial Crisis have lost their power amid rising nationalism, social inequality and financial volatility. The contours of a new international order cannot yet be drawn with any certainty, but strengthening economic security is emerging as a priority for many, including the governments of Japan and Australia. This was a key focal point of ASPI’s Japan-Australia Economic Security and Industrial Cooperation Symposium, held on 5 November. The event was attended by government and private sector leaders from Japan and Australia, including senior officials from Japanese agencies dealing with trade promotion, industry policy and the supply of energy and metals such as the Japan External Trade Organization; the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; and the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC). Also in attendance were representatives from the Australian departments of Defence, Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Industry. – Japan and Australia can build economic strength amid weakening globalisation | The Strategist
China
(Monique Taylor – East Asia Forum) China’s suspension of Hong Kong’s stablecoin rollout underscores that financial innovation cannot stray beyond the political boundaries of ‘one country two systems’, especially where monetary sovereignty is concerned. Beijing is willing to adopt blockchain-era tools through tightly controlled systems like the e-CNY and mBridge, but rejects any decentralised or privately issued instruments that would dilute state authority, resulting in a digital finance model that is technologically advanced yet intentionally constrained. – Beijing blocks stablecoins to keep money under state control | East Asia Forum
Dayton Peace Accords-Bosnia Herzegovina
(Crisis Group) This week marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accords, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina – a conflict that killed around 100,000 people, displaced half the population, and devastated the country. In this video, Crisis Group’s Consulting Senior Analyst for the Balkans, Marko Prelec, explains how Dayton rebuilt a shattered state without a military defeat, creating institutions, frameworks for reconstruction, and international oversight. But the Accord also had consequences: ethnic-based political representation and a long-lasting international role that limits local ownership. Thirty years on, Bosnia’s democracy remains fragile. Dayton shows the challenges of post-conflict state-building and the importance of security, international support, and local governance capacity. – 30 Years After Dayton: The Accords That Ended the Bosnia War | International Crisis Group
Global Economy
(East Asia Forum) The global turn to industrial subsidies is accelerating, with advanced economies undermining the long-standing multilateral rules that sought to limit subsidies and preserve a level playing field. With the World Trade Organization weakened, the most viable near-term response lies in plurilateral cooperation among willing economies to rebuild trust, coordinate limits on subsidies and focus action on priority areas like clean technology while eliminating harmful fossil fuel support. Without such coordination, subsidy races — driven partly by exaggerated fears of Chinese industrial dominance — risk fragmenting trade and reducing global welfare. – Measures to control the industrial policy arms race | East Asia Forum
India
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar, Lakshmy Ramakrishnan – Observer Research Foundation) During the COVID-19 pandemic, India contributed to the global response by increasing its vaccine development and health diplomacy efforts, underscoring, among others, its potential as a biotechnology powerhouse. The Government of India continued its effort to make progress in biotechnology research and development in the years after, launching the BioE3 policy in 2024. The BioE3 framework aims to develop a US$300-billion bioeconomy in India by 2030, through innovation in health, agriculture, clean energy, and sustainable manufacturing. This brief analyses India’s biomanufacturing trajectory through the lens of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the implementation of the BioE3 policy through biotech parks, public–private partnerships, and talent-development initiatives. It recommends reforms to address the challenges of weak intellectual property regimes, fragmented regulation, infrastructure asymmetries, and funding and talent shortfalls; the aim is to position India as a global hub for biotech innovation. – Filling Policy and Implementation Gaps to Build India as a Biomanufacturing Hub
India-Southeast Asia
(Ved Shinde – Lowy The Interpreter) In 1946, a year before Indian independence, the vice president of the Viceroy’s executive council in India, Jawaharlal Nehru, said that India would play a “very great part in security problems of Asia and the Indian Ocean, more especially of the Middle East and Southeast Asia. India is the pivot around which these problems will have to be considered.” Nehru’s thinking was not a break from the past. It was a recognition of India’s fortuitous geographical inheritance in Asia. Indian soldiers had fought in Hong Kong, Singapore, Burma, and Malaya in the Second World War. India and Southeast Asia were part of a geopolitical continuum. In recent years, defence exports have become a tangible component of India’s strategy in Southeast Asia. In 2022, India exported BrahMos anti-ship missiles, made under an Indo-Russian joint venture, to the Philippines for $375 million. Vietnam and Indonesia have expressed interest in purchasing such missiles, while Malaysia and Thailand have also moved on similar lines. Potential contracts with Vietnam are valued at $700 million, those with Indonesia at approximately $450 million. Land- and sea-based BrahMos anti-ship missiles are crucial for Southeast Asian states in establishing deterrence in the South China Sea. – Arms and influence: Southeast Asia’s missile powerplay with India | Lowy Institute
Indonesia
(Deasy Pane, Siwage Dharma Negara – FULCRUM) Indonesia has its work cut out for it given tough headwinds in global trade, but the present government’s attempts to tack its sails may give the country a chance to move in the right direction. – Rebalancing Indonesia’s Trade Policy: After Prabowo’s First Year | FULCRUM
Japan
(Crisis Group) Japan is building up its military to meet the growing challenges it sees to national security and its vision of international order. To promote its interests while keeping dangers of confrontation at bay, it should divide its energies between deterrence and diplomacy. – Embracing Arms: Securing Japan in a “New Era of Crisis” | International Crisis Group
Thailand-Cambodia
(Crisis Group) In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Matthew Wheeler, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, about the renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border. They explore the origins of the long-running dispute and the triggers for the latest round of fighting, which has shattered a ceasefire reached in Malaysia in late July and displaced more than half a million people. They examine calculations in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, the rising nationalist sentiment in Thailand, and the fallout from a leaked phone call between then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen in June. They also assess diplomacy to end the fighting, Malaysia’s mediation, and President Donald Trump’s role in brokering the July truce. As fighting continues despite Trump’s claim to have forged another ceasefire, they discuss why a quick de-escalation looks less likely this time around. – Fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand Border | International Crisis Group
US-Africa
(Baffour Agyeman Prempeh Boakye – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Critical minerals have become a frontline of great-power competition, with U.S. dependence on China exposing deep supply-chain vulnerabilities despite a flurry of domestic orders and allied deals. If Washington wants real resilience, it must look beyond familiar partners and move decisively into Africa, where China’s entrenched mineral footprint is already reshaping the geopolitics of the clean-energy transition. – America’s Recent Critical Minerals Deals with Australia and Southeast Asia are Promising, but not Sufficient: Africa Could be the Missing Link – Australian Institute of International Affairs
