COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
Africa
(Sarah Way – Atlantic Council) As the world pivots toward low-carbon energy, the demand for raw critical minerals—important inputs for innovations such as solar panels and electric vehicles—is continuing to soar. The higher demand for critical minerals is expected to cause a significant expansion in the extraction and production of an array of mineral resources. For example, the World Economic Forum projects that the production of minerals including graphite, cobalt, and lithium could increase by nearly 500 percent by 2050 to meet the growing demand for clean-energy technologies. Estimated to hold approximately 30 percent of the volume of critical-mineral reserves, the African continent is situated at the very center of the energy transition.
Australia
(Stephen Grenville – Lowy The Interpreter) Mainstream economists are unenthusiastic about industrial policy, which is in crude terms seen as the government seeking to pick winners. But the Treasury department – the bastion of economic orthodoxy – has embraced the “Future Made in Australia” policy set out by the Albanese government with its objective of “maximising the economic and industrial benefits of the move to net zero and securing Australia’s place in a changing global economic and strategic landscape.”
To pick winners, be willing to discard losers | Lowy Institute
(ASPI The Strategist) Europe is well ahead of Australia in its understanding of hybrid threats—harmful tactics below the threshold of war. Australia views these acts as isolated attacks across diplomatic, military, economic and technological domains, whereas European governments see them as part of a cohesive strategy aimed at undermining the defence capabilities of the target country and its partners. Australia’s fragmented perspective poses a challenge because, by the time hybrid threats escalate into conflict, it may be too late to develop the necessary coordinated defences.
Belarus – Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarus officially joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at the July summit in Astana, becoming the first European country to join. Minsk hopes to use SCO membership to synchronize the development of the north-south and east-west transit corridors, amplify its increasingly vocal anti-sanctions agenda, and improve its geoeconomic security. Belarus’s SCO membership strengthens China’s institutional access to Eastern Europe, as Beijing has become Minsk’s go-to alternative for avoiding sole dependence on Russia for its economic and military needs.
Belarus Becomes First European Member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization – Jamestown
Chemical Warfare
(Peyman Asadzade – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Militaries have used chemical weapons in more than a dozen civil and international conflicts, yet they have not generally secured decisive victories or profoundly changed the course of those conflicts. There is one war, however, that complicates the conventional wisdom on chemical weapons: the protracted Iran-Iraq War. In that conflict, chemical weapons were arguably decisive in allowing Iraq to reclaim the upper hand in the conflict and forcing Iran to agree to the UN resolution to bring an end to the war.
China
(Anushka Saxena – ASPI The Strategist) China is putting great effort into developing its soldiers’ ability to operate in high-altitude and cold environments, increasing its military capacity relative to India. Skills as simple as shovelling snow have become part of combat training exercises. Equipment, facilities and procedures are being improved in what appears to be a highly systematic approach to mitigating the challenges of moving and fighting in the Himalayas and adjacent areas.
Chinese soldiers gear up for winter warfare | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Cyprus
(Erol Kaymak – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) One of the big surprises of the June 2024 European Parliamentary elections occurred in the Republic of Cyprus, where a 24-year-old YouTuber and social media influencer, Fidias Panayiotou, won a seat running as an independent having secured over 19 percent of the vote. Whereas the vast majority of polls had predicted the rise of the radical right National People’s Front Party (ELAM) in Cyprus along with other far-right parties in Europe, Panayiotou’s victory and overall vote tally was unforeseen. His win came at the expense of the left-wing Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL), dashing the hopes for the re-election of Turkish Cypriot MEP Niyazi Kızılyürek, whose 2019 election to the European Parliament was seen as a milestone for bi-communal relations in divided Cyprus. Kızılyürek’s defeat highlights the persistent difficulties in achieving greater political integration and representation for Turkish Cypriots within the EU framework. This underscores the urgent need for inclusive dialogue, economic integration, and proactive measures to address Cyprus’s unique challenges, aiming to foster a more cooperative and resilient future for the island.
European Union – East Asia
(European Union Institute for Security Studies) Over the last half-century, East Asia has become the global economy’s manufacturing hub. Powerful trends have made a military conflict in East Asia, especially over Taiwan, more likely since 2016. The most important of these are China’s rapid military modernisation and its increasing number of hostile acts under the threshold of war. To Beijing’s growing frustration, these have not improved the prospects for peaceful “reunification” with the island republic. The use of greater force, namely a maritime blockade or an invasion of Taiwan, would have a severe impact on the EU’s prosperity and security. The new EU team should put the bloc in the best possible position to help prevent military conflict in East Asia, argues Joris Teer Associate Analyst for Economic Security and Technology. His economic deterrence action plan outlines the steps the EU would have to take to – as effectively as possible – contribute to preventing military conflict by preparing for an economic one.
Preventing war in East Asia | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
European Union – Horn of Africa – Red Sea
(Rossella Marangio – European Union Institute for Security Studies) In the Horn of Africa (HoA) and the Red Sea maritime and onshore security challenges are inextricably interlinked, prompting international concern. Initially, piracy arose from illegal fishing and the limited economic prospects for Somali fishermen. More recently, attacks by Yemeni Houthis on vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, have further threatened key trade routes accounting for about 15 % of global maritime trade. In March 2024, damage to three of the 14 undersea cables in the Red Sea affected 25 % of data traffic between Asia and Europe. Houthis have attacked vessels more than 40 times since November 2023, while suspected pirate activity has also seen a rise, with 19 attacks carried out in 2024 compared to just 6 in 2023. Further complicating the situation, the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recently signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland has generated mounting tensions with Somalia, with adverse repercussions for the fight against al-Shabaab as well as for internal conflict dynamics. Amidst a climate of mounting insecurity, a number of European, Asian and Gulf countries are deploying militaries, navies and diplomats. Meanwhile, notably China and the United Arab Emirates are expanding trade relations and infrastructure projects in the region. This Brief argues that it is vital for the EU to define its role in the increasingly complex political landscape emerging in the HoA and the Red Sea. It outlines three policy options for the EU to consider.
Global Economy and Finance
(Atlantic Council) Since its birth in 2008, cryptocurrency has grown in popularity and become an important part of the global financial system. Cryptocurrencies may significantly alter financial structures as they exist today and transform the next generation of money and payments. However, these changes come with significant concerns around cryptocurrencies for their potential negative impacts on markets, investors, users, and the environment. Governments around the world are looking to create regulations to prevent these harms while encouraging the innovative capabilities of cryptocurrencies. We look at 60 countries—including G20 member states, plus countries with the highest rates of cryptocurrency adoption. This new research categorizes and explains how the world’s largest economies and those with high rates of cryptocurrency activity are regulating cryptocurrencies within their jurisdictions.
Cryptocurrency Regulation Tracker – Atlantic Council
India
(Sanjay Ruparelia – CIGI) The 2024 general election in India, a mammoth exercise that took place over seven phases and 44 days, produced a surprising verdict on June 4. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has ruled in New Delhi since 2014, once again emerged as the single largest party. However, the party unexpectedly lost enough seats to require a formal coalition arrangement with its allies in the National Democratic Alliance, to secure a parliamentary majority. It’s an opportune moment to examine the importance of new digital technologies and social media apps in these historic polls, and explore how they have reshaped the media ecosystem in the world’s largest democracy.
(Observer Research Foundation) For many years, unusual weather conditions are being experienced due to the climate change phenomenon, and their frequent occurrence is affecting human lives and the environment. In some regions of India, patterns of cyclonic activity, rainfall, and temperature are reportedly undergoing a change. Monsoon seasons bring more or less rain, summers are hotter, and such events occur at unexpected times of the year. Civic agencies struggle to respond properly to the changing situation because the functionaries are less aware of the actions and are insufficiently prepared. Generally, these lack abilities to handle the situation, and are mainly dependent on national and state administration.
Building City Resilience to Climate Hazards (orfonline.org)
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) Military reforms have been a long pending requirement for post-Independence India. Under the Narendra Modi government in the past decade, crucial decisions were made in the defence reform front. These reforms—which are yet to be fully implemented and are undergoing refinement—will have a significant impact on the way the Indian armed forces synergise cooperation in training, conduct joint exercises, use resources efficiently, and forge combined arms cooperation to effectively execute warfighting missions. India’s defence procurement and industry have also been the target of reforms under the Modi government in the last ten years; some progress is now visible.
A Decade of Defence Reforms Under Modi (orfonline.org)
India – Russia
(Sumit Ganguly – East Asia Forum) The newly re-elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow in July 2024 to reaffirm long-standing India–Russia relations. India’s concerns about Russia’s growing dependence on China, the enduring value of strategic autonomy within Indian foreign policy and India’s reliance on Russian defence and petroleum imports all contribute to India’s commitment to maintaining ties with Russia.
When Modi met Moscow | East Asia Forum
Islamic State in Khorasan Province
(Lucas Webber – The Jamestown Foundation) The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) is increasing external operations and expanding recruitment in Central Asia through media wings that publish Central Asian militants and present them as role models for existing or potential supporters to follow. ISKP’s growing reach and international operational capabilities are causing concern about rising terrorism among many states on all sides of the geopolitical divide, including the United States, China, Russia, India, and Iran. The ISKP leadership looks set to intensify efforts to incite violence and direct external operations into Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and the other former Soviet republics to expand influence for recruitment and foment unrest.
Islamic State in Khorasan Province’s Increased Activity Threatens Central Asia – Jamestown
Japan
(David A McNeill – East Asia Forum) Japanese conservatives say the annual Reporters without Borders index on press freedom is unreliable and quixotic, and Japan’s ranking of 70 out of 180 fails to reflect the country’s robust journalism. Yet, claims of government pressure and manipulation persist, and the media’s dependency on access journalism and business interests have contributed to self-censorship and poor coverage of crucial public issues.
Politics puppeteers Japan’s press freedom | East Asia Forum
(Yuki Tatsumi – Stimson Center) Japanese PM Fumiko Kishida attended NATO’s 75th anniversary, advocating for stronger Indo-Pacific-European alliances amid Russia-North Korea ties and China’s rising threat.
Deterrence in Peacetime—Japan’s Deepening Cooperation with NATO • Stimson Center
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Siddhant Kishore and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Iraq: The Axis of Resistance is continuing to try to coerce the Gulf states into reducing their economic cooperation with Israel. The Axis of Resistance has sought to isolate Israel economically throughout the Israel-Hamas war – Gaza Strip: Israel has not yet confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. Hamas has asserted that Deif is alive but has provided no evidence – Syria: Israel conducted several airstrikes into Syria, including one targeting a high-profile Syrian businessman involved in moving military material across the Levant.
Iran Update, July 15, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) With China attempting to boost its influence in the Middle East, Hamas and Fatah leaders will meet in Beijing next week to conduct another round of Chinese-led unity talks that have so far failed to deliver results, The New York Times reported on July 15. Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, is expected to lead Hamas’s delegation at the talks, while Fatah is expected to be represented by three officials, including Fatah’s deputy chairman, Mahmoud al-Aloul. According to the Times, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, will meet with the two sides on July 21 and July 23, while the parties will meet on their own in between.
Fatah-Hamas Unity Talks Scheduled in China as Both Factions Condemn Each Other (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on July 13 that Turkey is winding down its military operation against Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq. In 2022, Turkey launched a military operation known as Operation Claw-Lock to secure its border with Iraq and prevent the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — which is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union — from using its bases in Iraq to launch attacks against Turkey. Speaking at the National Defense University’s commencement ceremony in Istanbul, Erdogan said on July 13 that the PKK is “completely trapped” in Iraq and Syria and that PKK militants are “incapable of acting” on Turkish soil. “We will very soon complete the lockdown of the area of operation in northern Iraq,” Erdogan told the military academy graduates.
Turkey To Halt Military Operation in Northern Iraq (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh expressed his gratitude for Iran’s backing of the Palestinian terrorist group in a telephone call with the Islamic Republic’s president-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, on July 14. “We appreciate Iran for playing a role in supporting the Palestinian cause, and we demand more political and diplomatic efforts to bring an end to Israel’s aggression”, Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, told Pezeshkian, according to Iranian state media. Their conversation took place three days after Pezeshkian sent Haniyeh a letter pledging “comprehensive support for the oppressed people of Palestine until all [of] their aspirations and rights are realized and Al-Quds (Jerusalem) is liberated.”
Iranian President-Elect Pezeshkian Lauds Hamas, Houthi Rebels in Yemen (fdd.org)
(David May, Haisam Hassanein – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Egypt recently hosted top US and Israeli officials for Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions. But nine months into a war that Hamas launched, Egypt has often exacerbated the conflict and largely evaded criticism for intensifying Palestinian suffering.
How Cairo Is Failing the Palestinians (fdd.org)
(Joe Truzman – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) On July 12, a statement published by Al-Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades, aka The Popular Resistance Committees, claimed it had cut ties with Liwa al-Tawhid, a small terrorist organization affiliated with the group. While the Brigades, an ally of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations, did not detail the reason for the split, the statement noted that the group would not affiliate itself with entities that did not follow Sunni Islam.
Al-Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades breaks with Liwa al-Tawhid (fdd.org)
(Eitan Shamir – BESA Center) Ten months after the surprise attack by Hamas on October 7, it is possible to assess the strategic achievements of the antagonists. In addition to inflicting heavy casualties and many wounded on the Israelis, Hamas succeeded in undermining Israeli society and causing divisions within it on the issue of the hostages. Hamas also succeeded in undermining Israel’s international status. Israel’s economic situation has been severely damaged and continues to deteriorate. Hamas brought the Palestinian issue back to center stage as a condition for a regional settlement, and recruited the Iranian proxies, mainly Hezbollah and the Houthis, for a war of attrition against Israel. Perhaps its greatest achievement is the evacuation of the populations of Jewish settlements within sovereign Israel for the first time since the establishment of the state. On the other hand, Israel is on the verge of crushing Hamas as an organized military force and removing one front from the “ring of fire” created by Iran around Israel. The Iranian attack on Israel proved the effective cooperation of a regional military coalition under the leadership of US Central Command and proved that Israel has an effective defense system against ballistic missiles. Israel regained its trust in the major ground maneuver and reserve soldiers were reestablished as an effective force in the IDF. Civil society also demonstrated its ability to mobilize. Hamas was unable to mobilize the Israeli Arabs to join it nor to mobilize the West Bank for a significant uprising. At this point, Israel is faced with a difficult dilemma. However, it is possible that a major strategic shift in events, should one occur, will not be related to regional developments but to developments in the global order, as has happened before in the region’s history.
The Iron Swords War: The Strategic Balance So Far and What’s Next (besacenter.org)
(Kobi Michael – Institute for National Security Studies) The results of the operation to eliminate Mohammed Deif are still unclear, but if the goal was indeed achieved (something that, according to media reports, is “highly probable”), it is a worthy and important operation that to some extent is comparable to the operations to eliminate Qassem Soleimani and Imad Mornia.
The Operation to Eliminate Deif: The Impact on the War and Effect on Sinwar | INSS
(Tamir Hayman – Institute for National Security Studies) The operation to thwart Mohammed Deif is not a miracle. It is a result of high-quality intelligence work which begins with organizational partnership: The formal responsibility for thwarting senior members of Hamas’ military wing rests with the Shin Bet, but in order to contribute to the success of its important task, all the capabilities of the intelligence community are at its disposal, with an emphasis on 8200.
The Operation to Eliminate Deif: On Intelligence Work and Decision-Making | INSS
Myanmar
(Graeme Dobell – ASPI The Strategist) The extraordinary arc of failure of Myanmar’s military has gone from coup and crack-down to the brink of regime crack-up. When seizing power in February 2021, the military expected to consolidate power and crush resistance. Instead, the junta’s violence pushed popular opposition to become revolution and civil war. The military’s hold on Myanmar shrinks as it suffers a ‘succession of humiliating defeats’.
NATO
(Ian Lesser – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The agenda of NATO’s Washington summit was unsurprisingly driven by the war in Ukraine and continued efforts to bolster deterrence and defense on the alliance’s eastern flank. The summit’s closing declaration reflects these priorities. At first glance, security on the southern flank does not feature prominently, but a closer look reveals considerable attention to challenges there, even if they lack a “southern” label.
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) During NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary summit in Washington last week, my private conversations with allied officials almost always landed on concerns about this year’s US elections, given former President Donald Trump’s doubts about NATO’s value and growing questions about US President Joe Biden’s durability. That was before this weekend’s assassination attempt against Trump at a Pennsylvania rally, which likely has only heightened allied concerns about US domestic volatility and unpredictability around the election—when gathering global challenges demand a steadiness that will be difficult to provide.
This might be NATO’s greatest struggle yet—and it’s global – Atlantic Council
(Kelly A. Grieco – Stimson Center) NATO targets China, calling it a “decisive enabler” of Russia, and pledges to deepen Indo-Pacific alliances against shared threats.
Is NATO Making a Strategic Blunder? • Stimson Center
Pacific
(Shailendra Bahadur Singh, Amit Sarwal – Lowy The Interpreter) Geopolitics in the Pacific has become so intense that it permeates the national life of some island countries. Jostling for influence between the United States, China, their allies and partners was one of the hot topics of the recently concluded 2024 Pacific International Media Conference in Suva, Fiji (July 4-6) hosted jointly by the University of the South Pacific Journalism Program, the Pacific Island News Association (PINA) and the Asia Pacific Media Network (APMN).
The role for Pacific media in charting a pragmatic global outlook | Lowy Institute
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia’s demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the Kremlin’s conditions for the end of the war are entirely unreasonable and widely unpopular within Ukraine – Ukraine continues to demonstrate its willingness to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine’s own terms, and Ukraine’s demands for a peace settlement are in accordance with international law — in direct contrast to Russia’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that end in anything short of full Ukrainian surrender – European Union (EU) officials continue to take steps to demonstrate the EU’s non-alignment with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s political stances concerning the war in Ukraine – The Russian government proposed to significantly increase the number of conditions on which the Russian government can designate a person as a terrorist or extremist, likely as part of efforts to censor criticisms about Russia’s war in Ukraine – Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure overnight on July 14 to 15 and reportedly also hit Russian military assets in occupied Crimea – A new Russian migrant assimilation program highlights the apparent struggle the Russian government is facing with reconciling aspects of its policy towards Central Asian migrants as the Russian state desires to present itself as welcoming and multicultural while also emphasizing the primacy of Russian language and historical legacy – Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov is posturing himself and the North Caucasus as key to Russia’s outreach to the Arab world – Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Avdiivka – Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized ongoing Russian efforts to integrate the metallurgy industry in occupied Ukraine into Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington yielded many practical decisions on building Western military capabilities and sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine through bilateral security agreements and increased aid from “frontline” states. Moscow hopes to exploit NATO divisions, but Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan for stirring discord in the West by issuing vague threats and nuclear blackmail involves risks he is not actually prepared to take. Putin’s war against Ukraine continues to put pressure on Western policy regarding support to Ukraine. Opinions on how to respond to Russia are polarized, but the overall position on expanding support for Ukraine remains solid among Western powers.
Russia Struggles to Counter Upgrade of NATO-Ukraine Compact – Jamestown
South Korea
(Jenny Town – Stimson Center) The NATO Summit addressed the emerging Russia-North Korea alliance, highlighting global security challenges and South Korea’s pivotal role in response.
Yoon’s Clap Back to the Putin-Kim Summit • Stimson Center
USA
(Alexander Noyes, Richard Bennet – Brookings) Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Americans have heard a lot about military and security assistance, a formerly niche tool of U.S. foreign and defense policy. As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the American public has grown more skeptical of providing military support to Ukraine, a wariness largely driven by growing Republican isolationism. Yet military assistance remains a popular tool of U.S. presidents and other policymakers and is likely to play a key role in America’s grand strategy and defense policy after the election this November, no matter which candidate wins.
Why do US presidents like military assistance? | Brookings
(Romuald Sciora – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) La balle qui a tué Corey Comperatore, ce pompier de 50 ans foudroyé au rallye de Trump, comme celle qui, par une chance insolente, n’aura fait qu’érafler l’oreille du tribun populiste, nous aura fait passer d’une campagne surréaliste, où un vieil homme qui vient de confondre Poutine et Zelensky, sa vice-présidente et son adversaire républicain, clame qu’il est encore apte à être président jusqu’en 2029, à une tragédie shakespearienne.
Trump, icône improbable de l’Amérique | IRIS (iris-france.org)
(Jacob Ware – Council on Foreign Relations) After a shooting that injured former President Donald Trump and killed a spectator at a campaign rally, leaders of both parties must unite behind efforts to calm and stabilize the political climate.
