COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
(Shivam Shekhawat – Observer Research Foundation) The third edition of the United Nations (UN)-led international conference in Doha on Afghanistan, held on June 30th and July 1st, ended without any significant development. The Taliban’s participation, with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) represented by a five-member delegation, along with the Special Envoys from 25 countries and some international organisations and the absence of women and other civil society groups was a major breakaway from the past iterations of the conference. While the Taliban were not invited to the first edition and refused to attend the second meeting held in February, this time their participation was secured by granting them some concessions. As the Emirate comes close to reaching the three-year mark, it finds itself in a much more favourable strategic environment with countries in the region as well as around the world initiating some form of engagement with the group.
Taliban’s Strategic Moves at UN-led Doha Conference (orfonline.org)
Africa
(Victoria Markiewicz, Praise P.T. Gandah, and Nicholas R. Micinski – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Although all of Africa contributes less than 4 percent to global greenhouse gases annually, many African countries are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events and are unable to adapt to long-term changes in the climate. African countries experience an average of 5 to 15 percent GDP loss per year due to climate change. But when the countries who are party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) come together at their annual summit (the Conference of Parties, or COP) to discuss how to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change, who speaks for the continent of Africa?
Armenia – Azerbaijan – Russia
(Thomas de Waal – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) A successful peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.
Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bangladesh – Bhutan – India
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) Sheikh Hasina’s two-day visit to India from the 21st to the 22nd of June witnessed the leaders of both countries jointly articulating a shared vision for the region. One of the key agreements signed during this visit enabled India and Bangladesh to use each other’s rail lines, reducing both time and costs to trade with Bhutan. India’s push for connectivity in the region throughout the last decade, combined with Bangladesh and Bhutan’s economic compulsions and difficulties, has contributed to a flurry of bilateral agreements and initiatives between the three nations, which are fuelling Bhutan’s aspirations of connectivity and economic growth.
Strengthening Bhutan’s Connectivity Vision: Delhi and Dhaka’s Role (orfonline.org)
China – Nepal
(Shruti Saxena – Observer Research Foundation) China’s soft power diplomacy in Nepal serves as a tangible manifestation of its broader foreign policy goals, aiming not only for a China-dominated Asia but also a Chinese-led world order.
China’s Soft Power in Nepal: A Strategic Influence (orfonline.org)
China – Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an important part of a wider strategy to construct a new international order. Beijing projects soft power through promoting norms, discursive constructs, and policy preferences in the SCO which member states officially endorse. These include language about comprehensively reforming the UN and supporting all PRC efforts to achieve “national reunification” with Taiwan. Military exercises that take place via the SCO provide the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unique opportunities to gain practical experience outside its borders and normalizes basing of Chinese forces in other countries through international treaties.
PRC Advances New International Order In Astana – Jamestown
Great Lakes Region
(John C. Austin – Brookings) I have long pointed to the Great Lakes region’s water and blue innovation economy as a fulcrum for renewed economic vitality in this historic industrial region. This is only partly due to the fact that the region has more freshwater than nearly any place on earth, along with 10,000-plus miles of freshwater coast and great waterfront locations to clean up and leverage for community revitalization and new economic development.
The Great Lakes region has a chance to replace the Rust Belt with the Blue Belt | Brookings
Haiti
(Sophie Rutenbar – Brookings) On June 25, Haitians in Port-au-Prince watched closely as several hundred Kenyan police officers, clad in uniform, filed to the tarmac from a Kenya Airways plane. The officers’ arrival had been in the works for more than a year and a half, since the former Haitian prime minister, Ariel Henry, requested international support for the Haitian police in the face of a then-unprecedented uprising by gangs in the fall of 2022.
Why Kenya’s deployment won’t solve all of Haiti’s problems | Brookings
India
(Harsh V. Pant, Sanjeet Kashyap – Observer Research Foundation) India needs to pay close attention as the US reconsiders its China policy.
Standing Up to Beijing (orfonline.org)
(Aparna Roy, Shoba Suri – Observer Research Foundation) The evolution of cities will impact efforts to address climate change and ensure resource security, with policy, market, and human behaviour factors converging to determine outcomes in urban areas. Currently, 56 percent of the global population reside in cities, a proportion that is expected to grow to 68 percent by 2050, with 90 percent of this growth concentrated in Asia and Africa. Despite occupying only 3 percent of the world’s land, cities consume approximately 75 percent of global electricity and contribute 70 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. India is anticipating an additional 416 million urban residents by 2050— the largest projected increase worldwide. This urban surge will double the country’s building space, with 70 percent of new constructions located in urban areas.
India- Austria
(Velina Tchakarova – Observer Research Foundation) India, with its ability to maintain and develop relations with both Western and Eastern power blocs, positions itself as a geopolitical bridge-builder that Austria could benefit from.
India’s Diplomatic Strategy in Austria: Fostering East-West Connections (orfonline.org)
NATO
(Simon Smith – Chatham House) Ukraine had a good NATO summit this time round. That may seem a strange judgement, after leaders in Washington again delivered an equivocal statement on exactly when Ukraine will start formal proceedings to join the alliance.
(Frida Rintakumpu, Sophie Arts, Parker Nash – German Marshall Fund of the United States) NATO’s Nordic allies can breathe a momentary sigh of relief as they depart the 2024 Washington summit. They helped deliver a summit declaration that addresses many key concerns and makes strong commitments to counter Russian aggression and sustain support to Ukraine. Like their colleagues in other capitals across the alliance, they also left with homework to plug capability gaps, build military infrastructure, and further bolster defense production.
(Brookings) As NATO turns 75, alliance leaders gathered in Washington, presenting a united front in support of Ukraine’s survival against the threat from Russia. Brookings Visiting Fellow James Goldgeier reviews the NATO summit’s outcomes, how the organization is trying to prepare for the uncertainty of American leadership after November, and the broader challenges—and partners—in NATO’s future.
The state of NATO at 75 and beyond | Brookings
(Atlantic Council) There’s no going back. At the NATO Summit in Washington this week, heads of state and government from the Alliance’s thirty-two allies pledged to support Ukraine on an “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.” However, the allies left open when exactly that membership would come, instead noting simply that they “will be in a position to extend an invitation . . . when Allies agree and conditions are met.”
Experts react: What the NATO Summit did (and did not) deliver for Ukraine – Atlantic Council
