From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Climate Action, Indonesia, Indonesia-US, Ingushetia, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Russia-Belarus, Russia’s War on Ukraine, Russia’s War on Ukraine-Indo Pacific-US, Syria, Thailand, Turkey-PKK, US, US-Middle East, US-Philippines
Climate Action
(Abeer S. Ahmad – SIPRI) Among the limited progress made at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in November last year was an agreement to mobilize at least US$300 billion a year of finance for climate action in developing countries by 2035. This New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) trebles the $100 billion target for climate finance originally set at COP15 in 2009. The adequacy of the new goal aside—many campaigners and experts believe it falls far short of what is needed or fair—another important question is how to ensure that enough of the mobilized funds are used to benefit the people most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the $100 billion target was finally achieved in 2022 (although that is still hotly disputed). Nevertheless, several independent reports have found that too little of the $100 billion went to benefit the most vulnerable, especially those in countries affected by fragility and conflict who are struggling to adapt to climate change. – Closing climate security gaps requires more reliable data on climate finance | SIPRI
Indonesia
(Melinda Martinus – FULCRUM) As Indonesia forges ahead with plans to become an advanced economy, an honest reckoning needs to occur, to ensure that it does not squander its vast environmental resources for short-term gain. – Reconciling Indonesia’s Food Sufficiency Ambitions with Climate Commitments | FULCRUM
Indonesia – US
(Awais Hanif – East Asia Forum) In 2024, Indonesia and the United States marked 75 years of bilateral relations. The US–Indonesia relationship has historically been defined largely by defence and security cooperation. But US adversaries like Russia and China have begun to make inroads in the country, while the United States’ public image has suffered as a result of the conflict in Gaza. The United States can begin to reverse this decline by investing in food security, a priority of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s government, through training, technology and partnerships. – Food security is the next step in US–Indonesia relations | East Asia Forum
Ingushetia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has made another move to subordinate Ingushetia (a neighboring republic within the Russian Federation) by organizing talks intended to create a Chechen-controlled muftiate in Ingushetia. Kadyrov’s efforts to gain leverage over Ingushetia may be initially successful because of the current Ingush muftiate’s troubled relationship with Magas. At the same time, it is likely to spark new protests in Ingushetia not only against Grozny but also against Magas and Moscow. Kadyrov’s moves to gain the support of Muslims in Ingushetia have already triggered disputes and concerns in Moscow and across the North Caucasus that the Chechen leader will target them as well. – Kadyrov’s Efforts to Create Chechen Muftiate in Ingushetia Threaten to Destabilize Region – Jamestown
Lebanon
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) How will the unsettled political dynamics in Lebanon affect the ongoing implementation of the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire? – Next Steps in Lebanon: From Ceasefire Extensions to Government Formation | The Washington Institute
Libya
(Tim Eaton, Lubna Yousef – Chatham House) Migrant smuggling is not a new phenomenon in Libya. In the post-Gaddafi period, the country has become the main corridor for illegal migration into Europe from the African continent. – How migrant smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Morocco
(Beatriz de León Cobo, Nicholas Hopton, Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) Morocco’s strategic role in promoting stability in the Sahel is central to tackling transnational threats, with initiatives like the Atlantic Initiative fostering regional security cooperation. – Morocco as a Strategic Partner in Supporting the Sahel Region’s Security | Royal United Services Institute
Russia – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) The Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Russia-Belarus Union State allows for a nuclear weapons response to the use of nuclear or weapons of mass destruction, or certain threats to territorial integrity, against either Belarus or Russia, but it remains ambiguous by not clarifying the procedure for such a response. Contrary to official statements, centralized command and control of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is exercised by the Kremlin, while Minsk does not possess the authority to veto decisions from Moscow. Moscow’s rush to ratify the treaty indicates it is preparing legal grounds for including Belarus in Russia’s military planning, effectively turning the territory of Belarus into a launching pad for nuclear weapons and for waging war against Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). – New Security Arrangements Between Moscow and Minsk Cement Russia’s Influence (Part 2) – Jamestown
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Volodymyr Havrylov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was based on flawed assumptions, such as expecting Ukrainian surrender and Western non-interference. These miscalculations have backfired, as Ukraine’s determined resistance and commitment to sovereignty, as well as support from Western partners, have thwarted the Kremlin’s original plans. The conflict has evolved into a technological war, where success is determined by equipment quality, situational awareness, and precision strike capabilities rather than sheer numbers. Ukraine is focused on maintaining technological superiority through advanced weapons, drones, and electronic warfare. Any peace negotiations must recognize Ukraine’s territorial integrity, with continued military and economic support from international partners. These factors are vital for ensuring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, strengthening its defense capabilities, and maintaining its resistance against Russian aggression. – Settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: Ambitions and Realities – Jamestown
Russia’s War on Ukraine – Indo Pacific – US
(Daljit Singh – FULCRUM) A ceasefire in Ukraine could enable Washington to strengthen its deterrence network in the Indo-Pacific. But this depends on whether Trump hews to traditional balance of power considerations. – How A Ceasefire In Ukraine Could Affect Asian Security | FULCRUM
Syria
(Dana Stroul – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The Institute’s director of research testified before a Senate panel on U.S. policy post-Assad, explaining how Washington has another chance for impactful bipartisan action five years after the Syria Study Group. – After Assad: Navigating Syria Policy (Part 2) | The Washington Institute
Thailand
(Archanun Kohpaiboon – FULCRUM) There are mounting concerns that foreign medical tourism in Thailand could exacerbate a brain drain from the public healthcare sector. The overall picture is more nuanced. – Is the Growth of Thailand’s Medical Tourism Industry Sustainable? | FULCRUM
Turkey – PKK
(Middle East Institute) A historic shift may be on the horizon, as Turkey and Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan engage in unexpected peace talks. After 40 years of insurgency and 40,000 lives lost, Ocalan is expected to call for PKK fighters to lay down their arms. However, with President Erdogan’s democratic backsliding and continued crackdown on Kurdish political rights, questions remain about whether lasting peace is possible. MEI’s Gönül Tol explains. – Is this the end of the PKK insurgency? | Middle East Institute
US
(Jonathan E. Hillman – Council on Foreign Relations) When do economics threaten national security? President Donald Trump has concluded that steel and aluminum imports remain a threat and is reimposing tariffs through Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Without exemptions, however, these tariffs are likely to negatively impact the U.S. defense sector, critical infrastructure, and U.S. allies. How these trade-offs are weighed hinges on how national security is defined. – Trump’s National Security Tariffs | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Middle East
(Paul Salem – Middle East Institute) Observing the unfolding of President Donald Trump’s second term from the Middle East is as confusing and disorienting as it must be from the United States. In Palestine, Egypt, and Jordan, urgent concern is focused on Trump’s surprise plan to take over the Gaza Strip, displace its population, and rebuild it as the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In Israel, the right wing is extremely pleased with Trump’s gift, but they don’t know what he has planned for the West Bank. In the Arab Gulf monarchies, leaders are generally happy to be dealing with Trump again but are alarmed by the recklessness of his Gaza plan and concerned about the potential impact his energy and tariff policies could have on their economies. – Watching Trump’s second term unfold from the Middle East | Middle East Institute
(Brian Katulis – Middle East Institute) The Trump administration’s Middle East approach in its first three weeks back in office was filled with plenty of sound and fury. It’s still too soon to tell whether all of the noise signifies much of anything for the region, yet there are few promising signs of a smooth ride ahead. – Act 1 of Trump’s Middle East policy: Off script or no script? | Middle East Institute
(F. Gregory Gause, III – Middle East Institute) President Donald Trump continues to double down on his out-of-left-field proposal to take over the Gaza Strip, remove the two million Palestinians who live there, and turn it into the world’s largest beach resort. During the press gaggle on Feb. 11, before his meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, whom Trump is pressuring to accept some of those Palestinians he is proposing to relocate, the president said, “We will have Gaza… We are going to take it. We are going to hold it.” – President Trump’s Gaza ploy: Exercising leverage over Saudi Arabia? | Middle East Institute
US – Philippines
(Julio S. Amador III – FULCRUM) The US-Philippines alliance is expected to be reinforced in the Trump 2.0 administration. It will, however, be tested given existing regional flashpoints and the need to follow through commitments pledged in previous years. – Trump 2.0 and the US-Philippines Alliance: Consistency and Change | FULCRUM
