Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Afrobarometer) African youth prefer democracy to any kind of authoritarian alternative but are more likely than their elders to be dissatisfied with the way democracy works in their countries, Afrobarometer’s inaugural flagship report shows. African youth are committed to democracy but express greater dissatisfaction than their elders, Afrobarometer inaugural flagship report reveals – Afrobarometer
(Amit Jain – Brookings) The economic growth forecast for Africa over the next two years is no more than 4% per annum. For a continent whose population, one-third of whom lives on less than U.S. $2.15 a day, is itself growing at more than 2.5% per annum, that is not such good news. It means less revenues for governments and even less money in the pockets of everyday citizens whose incomes have been eroded by inflation. Africa faces multiple challenges as it looks to 2024. Here are three lessons it can take from East Asia as it braces for the headwinds ahead. Battling global headwinds: Three lessons for Africa from East Asia | Brookings
Arctic
(Sophie Arts, Sam Wilson – German Marshall Fund of the United States) When the United States teams up with allies and harnesses the potential of public-private collaboration, not even the sky is the limit. On August 11, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 successfully launched twin satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California into highly elliptical orbit (HEO) as part of the Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission (ASBM). “Partnering to Win” in the Arctic | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Australia – Pacific
(Miah Hammond-Errey – East Asia Forum) The Australian government has allocated AU$39.9 million over five years for AI policy and capability development. Some AI experts believe more is required to capitalise on potential economic benefits forecasted at between AU$115 billion and AU$280 billion by 2030. Australia is building up the digital infrastructure and regulatory safeguards, here and in the Pacific, to facilitate AI development but will need to determine where its strengths lie if it is to fully capitalise on the technological revolution. Laying the foundations for AI in Australia and the Pacific | East Asia Forum
China
(ThinkChina) Chinese tech giant Baidu’s Apollo Go has launched driverless test operations in 11 cities. As autonomous vehicles hit the roads, commentator Zhang Tiankan explores their social and safety impacts. Can China lead the way in autonomous driving? (thinkchina.sg)
(Jonathan Ping, Heaven Elishav – East Asia Forum) The creation of specialised space forces by nations such as the United States, Russia, India, Japan, France, Australia and China has marked a major shift in astropolitics. While countries like the United States have established these divisions purely for military purposes, China’s Aerospace Force, established to support its five armed services, is set to provide assistance for both military and civilian activities. This approach demonstrates China’s desire to pursue the party-state’s longstanding objectives in the new domain of space. China pursuing state objectives in astropolitics | East Asia Forum
China – Baltic Sea
(Cynthia Mehboob – Lowy The Interpreter) China has finally acknowledged that the Hong Kong-flagged ship NewNew Polar Bear was responsible for damaging critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The incident – which Beijing is calling an “accident” – occurred in October 2023 and involved the Chinese ship damaging the 77 kilometre Balticconnector pipeline, an essential energy source for Finland along with an undersea data cable that connects Estonia to Sweden. The acknowledgement emerged in reporting by the South China Morning Post this week, but it won’t put an end to suspicions about cable sabotage. Beijing’s Baltic confession exposes undersea vulnerability | Lowy Institute
China – India
(Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) In July 2024, China completed a black-topped bridge on Pangong Lake in Eastern Ladakh, designed to facilitate armoured troop movements across both shores. This bridge symbolises two key aspects of India-China relations. First, it underscores China’s commitment to developing military infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This process gained substantial momentum after the Kargil War as part of Beijing’s ‘Go West’ economic development strategy. Second, the inauguration of the bridge during the ongoing India-China military standoff on the LAC since 2020, underscores China’s continued shift in its position on the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir in the past two decades. Once neutral and occasionally playing a mediatory role, China has now moved to actively supporting Pakistan, protecting its notorious terrorists in the UN, and taking a more active role against India. This paper explores this issue, examining the key developments and reasons contributing to the current situation. China and the Kargil War: From neutrality to conflict (orfonline.org)
Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(Anderson Lee, Amanda Carter – World Resources Institute) Building a sustainable future, in which people and nature thrive and climate change is held in check, is possible. The rewards will be vast, but getting there will require massive investments. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the world needs to invest about $4 trillion annually by 2030 for clean energy alone. Add to this the cost of restructuring transportation, food systems, industry, shipping and much more. All must transform, and quickly, to slash greenhouse gas emissions this decade. Banks Are Not On Track to Meet Net Zero Commitments | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(World Resources Institute) The financial sector plays a key role in supporting the decarbonization of the real economy by providing financial capital and engaging with portfolio companies. This is why it is essential for all stakeholders to understand the net zero commitments made by financial institutions and assess whether they are credible, ambitious, and being implemented. However, the disparate quality and quantity of commitments and disclosures hinder transparency, accountability, and ultimately, setting attainable targets and operationalizing them. Net Zero Finance Analysis: A Framework for Assessing Net Zero Commitments by Financial Institutions | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(James MacCarthy, Jessica Richter, Sasha Tyukavina, Mikaela Weisse, and Nancy Harris – World Resources Institute) The latest data on forest fires confirms what we’ve long feared: Forest fires are becoming more widespread, burning at least twice as much tree cover today as they did two decades ago. Using data from researchers at the University of Maryland, recently updated to cover the years 2001 to 2023, we calculated that the area burned by forest fires increased by about 5.4% per year over that time period. Forest fires now result in nearly 6 million more hectares of tree cover loss per year than they did in 2001 — an area roughly the size of Croatia. Fire is also making up a larger share of global tree cover loss compared to other drivers like mining and forestry. While fires only accounted for about 20% of all tree cover loss in 2001, they now account for roughly 33%. New Data Confirms: Forest Fires Are Getting Worse | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Anum Farhan, Suzannah Sherman, and Lisa Toremark – Chatham House) Every month since June 2023 has seen record-breaking temperatures and the speed at which extreme heat events are being recorded is unprecedented. Climate change is making heatwaves longer, more extreme and more frequent. Burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gas emissions – like carbon dioxide – that trap more heat in the atmosphere. The more emissions are produced, the more heat gets trapped, leading to more global warming and increasingly extreme weather events. Heatwaves, extreme heat and climate change | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Cuba
(Vivek Mishra, Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) The United States’ relations with most Central and South American countries are, at best, complicated. Despite geographical proximity, these nations have remained distanced by ideological differences, political divides driven by issues such as immigration, drugs, and gun control, as well as structural disparities in their economies and governance. Cuba has always been at the heart of this divide. The Bay of Pigs Invasion in April 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, underscored by the socialist-capitalist divide, have left bilateral relations between Cuba and the US strained and unresolved. The lingering tensions occasionally flare up, threatening to escalate. A renewed great power entanglement in Cuba (orfonline.org)
Emerging Technologies
(James Ryseff, Brandon De Bruhl, Sydne J. Newberry – RAND Corporation) To investigate why artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) projects fail, the authors interviewed 65 data scientists and engineers with at least five years of experience in building AI/ML models in industry or academia. The authors identified five leading root causes for the failure of AI projects and synthesized the experts’ experiences to develop recommendations to make AI projects more likely to succeed in industry settings and in academia. By some estimates, more than 80 percent of AI projects fail — twice the rate of failure for information technology projects that do not involve AI. Thus, understanding how to translate AI’s enormous potential into concrete results remains an urgent challenge. The findings and recommendations of this report should be of interest to the U.S. Department of Defense, which has been actively looking for ways to use AI, along with other leaders in government and the private sector who are considering using AI/ML. The lessons from earlier efforts to build and apply AI/ML will help others avoid the same pitfalls. The Root Causes of Failure for Artificial Intelligence Projects and How They Can Succeed: Avoiding the Anti-Patterns of AI | RAND
European Union
(Ana Palacio – ASPI The Strategist) Whenever Europeans return from their summer holidays, calls for a structural overhaul of the European Union are practically inevitable. This year will be no different, though the impetus for change may be more powerful than ever. The EU is facing numerous daunting, even existential, challenges. War rages on its doorstep, economic competitiveness lags, and deep social polarisation persists. Political uncertainty in France and indecision in Germany compound the EU’s fragility, precisely when an unpredictable leadership transition in the United States, which threatens to usher in a prolonged period of American isolationism, leaves Europe with little choice but to take its fate into its own hands. As Orban assaults democracy, EU must boldly reclaim its integrity | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Gulf Cooperation Council
(Zlata Sergeeva, Colin Ward – KAPSARC) As the world experiences the energy transition, traditional oil and gas producers are feeling a greater need to decarbonize their hydrocarbon production. After the global gas crisis of 2022-2023, caused by an ongoing military conflict in Europe and the disruption of decades-long Russia-EU relationships, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries started to be seen by gas importers as the future of stable and secure gas supplies, mainly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Assessing CCUS Potential for LNG in the GCC – KAPSARC
India – Vietnam
(Centre for Land Warfare Studies) This paper explores the dynamics of defence relations between India and Vietnam and areas of improvement in both countries’ defence production capabilities. The research highlights the foundational bilateral ties established since 1950 and how these have evolved into a robust defence partnership that stretches on till today. It expands on the significance of the 2016 comprehensive strategic partnership, driven by shared concerns over regional security, particularly in the South China Sea. The paper analyzes the development of indigenous arms industries in both countries, emphasizing the shift from dependency on imports to indigenous production of arms. It also highlights the potential for joint research and development initiatives, which will enhance bilateral relations and strengthen each country’s defence capabilities. The analysis emphasizes the need for deeper defence cooperation at a time of international instability, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical tensions in Asia. India and Vietnam: Forging Closer Ties through Strengthening Defence Cooperation – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
Iran
(Emirates Policy Center) Iran’s foreign policy will see a resurgence of dual decision-making, with the Pezeshkian administration potentially diverging from the deep state on key issues. The deep state may respond to this dual decision-making by stripping the Pezeshkian government of authority over certain foreign policy matters, such as the nuclear and regional issues, transferring these responsibilities to sovereign institutions more aligned with the deep state. Pezeshkian is set to fulfil his campaign promise of re-engaging with the nuclear deal, as evidenced by his diplomatic appointments which confirm this foreign policy trend. The new Iranian government will need to pursue a policy of direct engagement with neighbouring countries, initiating dialogue to manage regional dynamics separately from any potential negotiations with the West. Emirates Policy Center | The Return of Duality: Iran’s New President and Foreign Policy Challenges (epc.ae)
(Jason M. Brodsky – Middle East Institute) Masoud Pezeshkian assumed office as Iran’s president during a period of crisis. The evening after his inauguration, Israel killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who cheered on the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, in a Tehran guesthouse. Whereas some Western media outlets hailed Pezeshkian’s arrival by dubbing him as a “liberalizer” whose administration foreign actors are trying to spoil, his choices for cabinet and executive positions reflect the limitations of the power of the presidency. New Iranian president appoints crisis cabinet | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Mauritania
(Afrobarometer) About six in 10 Mauritians say the level of corruption in the country has increased over the past year, although this represents an improvement compared to assessments two years ago, the latest Afrobarometer survey reveals. Mauritians mistrust political class, but fewer citizens perceive increasing levels of corruption, new Afrobarometer study shows – Afrobarometer
Namibia
(Afrobarometer) The Afrobarometer National Partner in Namibia, Survey Warehouse, interviewed a nationally representative, random, stratified probability sample of 1,200 adult citizens between 14 March and 2 April 2024. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys have been conducted in Namibia in 1999, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2021. IJR provided technical backstopping for the survey. Namibia Round 10 summary of results – Afrobarometer
North Korea
(ThinkChina) Japanese academic Atsuhito Isozaki notes that Kim Jong-un is promoting tourism for revenue, but attracting big spenders from China may be challenging, and most North Koreans lack funds for domestic tourism. Kim Jong-un is promoting tourism, but who are the tourists? (thinkchina.sg)
Russia
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on August 1 in Ankara and seemed to work in Moscow’s favor based on those prisoners swapped. The uneven status of those swapped confirmed the effectiveness of Moscow’s strategy of using foreign, dual, or Russian citizens opposing the Kremlin as assets for triggering the release of high-profile international criminals. The rhetoric of some freed Russian opposition leaders on the impact of Western sanctions was received negatively by some in the West, which would work in the Kremlin’s favor if it means further isolating the opposition. Moscow Capitalizes on Wins From Recent Prisoner Swap – Jamestown
Russia – Antarctica
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) In the spring, Russia reported the discovery of an enormous new oil field in Antarctica. Moscow told Western governments it had no plans to develop the field, even as Western observers warned that exploitation of the new deposits could threaten the Antarctic treaty regime. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a program to do precisely that, a move Russia would likely find difficult to do on its own but might be more successful if it can involve some BRICS partners in the effort. This threat to stability in the Antarctic as a place free from economic and even military conflict could now come to a head quickly, as the southern polar region is entering its warmest season when outside powers tend to step up their activities. Putin Says Moscow to Exploit New Oil Field in Antarctic, Undermining Key Treaty – Jamestown
Russia – China
(Justin Sherman – Council on Foreign Relations) Russia’s growing focus on domestic digital development and its deepening reliance on Chinese technology have major impacts on human rights and cybersecurity in Russia, while creating new vulnerabilities. Russia’s Becoming More Digitally Isolated—and Dependent on China | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Russia – Ukraine
(Richard Iron CMG OBE – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The war between Russia and Ukraine hinges not just on military engagements but also on the willpower and economic capacities of both nations. Broader geopolitical challenges and internal pressures within Russia will likely impact the war’s duration and outcome, with much also depending on Western support for Ukraine. The Ukraine War: Where to from Here? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Michael Lawriwsky – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The view that Russian aggression towards Ukraine is driven solely by the goal of maintaining its neutrality as a buffer state must ignore certain realities. Its most important omission is that Russia’s military actions and the genocidal tactics employed against Ukrainians align with a broader historical narrative of reasserting dominance over regions seen as integral to Russian identity. The Russian-Ukrainian War: “NATO-Fault” Thesis Proponents Can’t Explain Why it’s Genocidal – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Samuel Charap, Khrystyna Holynska – RAND Corporation) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is by far its largest and most consequential commitment of military forces abroad in recent decades. The stakes for Russia are extremely high. However, despite these stakes, the Kremlin has not provided a clear and consistent public narrative regarding its objectives, maintaining significant ambiguity and even adopting contradictory stances. In this report, the authors analyze Russia’s official public narrative regarding its war aims in Ukraine in the first year of its full-scale invasion. They begin by investigating Russian strategic writings and pre-2022 Russian practice of objective-setting when using force abroad. The authors use this analysis to generate expectations about how Russia would have been expected to behave during the full-scale invasion. They then document the reality of Moscow’s objective-setting in the first year of the Ukraine war through a qualitative analysis of Russian leaders’ key speeches and a quantitative study of an original dataset of official statements on the war. The authors compare this reality with the expectations, noting significant divergences. Finally, they then provide implications of their findings for U.S. and allied policymakers. Russia’s War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin’s Use of Force Abroad | RAND
(Andrii Ryzhenko – The Jamestown Foundation) This year, Ukraine has taken the initiative at sea and focused more strikes on Crimea and Russian positions in the Black Sea. With new tactics and weaponry, these attacks have become more difficult for the Russian military to counter. The end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 proved fatal for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as Ukraine has destroyed or seriously damaged at least one-third of the fleet’s vessels, including the Rostov-na-Donu submarine targeted on August 2. Ukraine’s continued strikes against the Russian surface fleet, air defense facilities, airfields, and ammunition and fuel depots in Crimea could give Ukrainian forces an opening to gain a much stronger position in reclaiming the peninsula. Crimea as Ukraine’s Trump Card Against Russia – Jamestown
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Since February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy has demonstrated its ability to counter the world’s supposed third-best military through innovative weaponry and unmanned naval drones. The use of unmanned systems, particularly drones, has emerged as a critical element in modern naval warfare, with both Ukraine and Russia rapidly advancing their technologies to counter each other. The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea serves as a testing ground for future naval warfare, demonstrating the evolving nature of unmanned weaponry and informing foreign states of how to revise their maritime defense strategies. Innovative Ukrainian Naval Tactics Largely Nullify Russia’s Black Sea Superiority – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine – Sahel
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) On 24 February 2022, when Russia began its airstrike in the Donbas region of Ukraine, no one imagined it to become a full-blown war, nor that it would continue for so long. Yet, more than two years later, the metastasising war goes on. Despite the distance, the repercussions of the war have been deeply felt across Africa, threatening its food and energy security. In July 2023, a seven-member African peace delegation visited both Russia and Ukraine to persuade two leaders to end the destructive war. Unfortunately, like many other peace initiative proposals by other countries, this effort also faltered as none of the leaders agreed to negotiate. As if this weren’t enough, it now seems that the war between Kyiv and Moscow has spiralled into the Sahel, evoking a chilling reminder of the Cold War. After World War II, the escalating rivalry between the communist Soviet Union and the capitalist United States (US) led both nations to vie for influence globally, particularly in Africa. This struggle resulted in numerous skirmishes and even full-scale wars, causing millions of human lives and the promotion of authoritarian regimes across the continent. In a disturbing turn of events, it seems that a new front between Russia and Ukraine has now surfaced in Sahel, Africa. Sahel: The new front in the Ukraine-Russia war (orfonline.org)
Saudi Arabia
(KAPSARC) As governments and organisations across the Middle East work towards achieving their net-zero agendas, sustainable finance plays a crucial role by raising capital for projects essential to achieving these targets. Robust capital markets, supportive regulatory frameworks, and transparent sustainability reporting are some of the key ingredients for a well-functioning sustainable finance practice, requiring cooperation from all relevant stakeholders, including governments, private companies, and regulators. Bridging the Gaps for an Orderly Energy Transition: The Role of Sustainable Finance in Saudi Arabia – KAPSARC
(Cian Mulligan – KAPSARC) This paper offers the first estimate of employment in Saudi Arabia that can be linked to the energy transition. Using a task-based taxonomy devised by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics applied to detailed administrative data on Saudi workers, it is estimated that in 2022 almost 30% of all Saudi workers in the private sector were employed in “green” occupations. Measuring Green Jobs in Saudi Arabia: Saudis in Green Occupations – KAPSARC
Singapore – Malaysia – Indonesia
(Faizal Bin Yahya – East Asia Forum) The global data centre market, forecasted to reach a value of US$554.4 billion by 2030, sees Southeast Asia, specifically Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, as key growth areas due to their complementary strengths. Singapore remains a key data centre hub but faces land and energy constraints, making Malaysia and Indonesia increasingly attractive alternatives. Enhanced sub-regional cooperation among these three countries, focusing on skilled manpower, investment, renewables and cybersecurity, is crucial for boosting foreign investment and positioning the SMI digital triangle as a global data centre leader. The Singapore–Malaysia–Indonesia triangle can be a data centre powerhouse | East Asia Forum
USA
(Emirates Policy Center) A Harris presidency is expected to align with Biden’s policies on great power competition with China and Russia, and efforts to contain Iran and North Korea as regional disruptors. However, Harris is expected to have a more compassionate approach to the humanitarian aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, advocating for a balance between supporting Israel’s security and addressing Palestinian suffering. If elected president, Harris will likely balance realism and idealism, focusing on both American security interests and humanitarian values, with a stronger emphasis on human rights issues. Emirates Policy Center | Kamala Harris and the Middle East: Balancing Humanitarian Concerns with Strategic Interests (epc.ae)
(Emily Mosley – Australian Institute of International Affairs) President Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the election has given Democratic nominee Kamala Harris limited time to impact the election. There are some crucial numbers in key areas, however, that give her a fighting chance. Is America Ready for Kamala Harris? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao associate foreign editor So Geok Lan notes that despite garnering overwhelming support within the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris still has hurdles to cross to break the glass ceiling to become the first woman to lead the US. [Big read] Can Kamala Harris be the first female US president? (thinkchina.sg)
(Sara Hughes, Rebecca Tisherman, Linnea Warren May, Michelle E. Miro – RAND Corporation) Earlier this month, Hurricane Beryl caused extreme flooding across the country, from Texas to Vermont, in many cases impacting communities that were still recovering from catastrophic flooding in 2023. Flooding has become the most expensive and frequent disaster in the United States. Since 2000, flooding events occur almost daily, and the cost of inland flooding alone in 2023 was nearly $200 billion. Flooding also has major implications for human health and well-being through degrading housing conditions, loss of mobility and economic opportunity, and impacted ecosystems and environmental conditions. Many of the households and businesses most vulnerable to flood risk have the fewest resources available to prepare for and respond to a flood. Building Flood Resilience: A Grand Challenge for U.S. Water Policy | RAND
(Sarah B. Hunter, Joan S. Tucker, Jason M. Ward, Rick Garvey – RAND Corporation) Although substantial investments have been made to address homelessness in Los Angeles County, the number of people experiencing homelessness has continued to grow over the past decade. Transition age youth, ages 18 to 25 years old, represent an important population of focus because resolving homelessness at an early age may prevent chronic homelessness and the consequences of living unsheltered, such as earlier mortality and increased morbidity. This report presents data from a survey of nearly 400 transition age youth experiencing housing instability in Los Angeles County, with an emphasis on youth with foster care (FC) involvement. The FC system puts an individual at greater risk of experiencing homelessness. More than a decade ago, California invested in additional supports for youth in the FC system up to the age of 21; however, little is known about how youth experiencing housing instability in Los Angeles County interface with such programs. This report should be of interest to entities serving transition age youth experiencing homelessness and those involved with the FC system, including government, social service and health care organizations, educators, employers, practitioners, advocacy groups, researchers, and others interested in addressing the homelessness crisis. Understanding the Needs of Transition Age Youth Navigating the Foster Care and Housing Systems in Los Angeles County | RAND
(David G. Victor – Brookings) Although there’s been a lot of progress in cutting the emissions that cause climate change, actually stopping and reversing climate change will require a whole lot more. Only by slashing emissions essentially to zero everywhere on the planet will the climate be allowed to heal itself. Achieving those kinds of deep cuts will probably require that countries work together more closely—to figure out who pays the cost of developing new technologies and to manage the effects of expensive emission controls on economic competitiveness. The logic for deep cooperation is compelling, but that logic is a hard sell in today’s era of intensifying economic nationalism. Many of the world’s largest industrial economies, including the United States and China, see an economic advantage in investing in the technologies of a clean industrial future. What’s good for one country will be seen as a lost advantage for others. Cooperation is particularly hard to forge when that kind of zero-sum logic prevails. Institutions that could help achieve more cooperation, such as the World Trade Organization, are already fraying—not least because U.S. support for rules-based international cooperation has been waning. How will climate cooperation look after the elections? | Brookings
(Douglas N. Harris – Brookings) Few things are more fundamental to a society than its traditions. They guide our actions through difficult and changing times. They keep us grounded and steady. They build on the wisdom of our forerunners. At least, that is the way conservatives, usually, look at the world. But on one issue—school vouchers—some conservatives are playing the role of radicals. The general goal of vouchers is to allow families to use government funds to pay tuition at private schools, including religious schools. The idea has been around for more than a half-century but had gone almost nowhere in the U.S., until very recently. In just the past few years, it has gone from the political desert to a core issue that is sweeping across Republican-led states. The new and radical school voucher push is quietly unwinding two centuries of U.S. education tradition | Brookings
(Matthew Collin, Karan Mishra, and Andreas Økland – Brookings) In September of 2022, not long after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, officials from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) raided and seized several luxury properties in both New York City and Miami. The average person would have had little idea why these particular properties were special; the official register only listed an anonymous Panamanian shell company, one with a mailing address at Madison Square Garden, as the putative owner. But it was later revealed that the DOJ officials were part of KleptoCapture, a special task force created to seize and freeze the assets of Russian oligarchs, and that the true owner of the $70 million property portfolio was Viktor Vekselberg, a Russian-Cypriot billionaire who had been subject to U.S. sanctions for many years. Even though the authorities eventually pieced together the puzzle and located his gargantuan property portfolio, Vekselberg had managed to fly under the radar for years until that point. Offshore ownership of American real estate is a black box. The Treasury has the power to open it. | Brookings
(Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson – Brookings) We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data. Our higher estimates of employment stem from compelling evidence of recent population growth fueled by an unanticipated surge in migration that is not yet captured in official population statistics underlying the CPS. As we explain, the unanticipated surge has had implications for estimates of employment among both foreign-born and U.S.-born people. The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment | Brookings
USA – China
(ThinkChina) Chinese-speaking Tim Walz taught in Guangdong in the 1980s, while Kamala Harris co-sponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act as a senator. How might US-China relations shift if they win the presidency? Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Sim Tze Wei reports. What a Harris-Walz victory might mean for US-China relations (thinkchina.sg)
USA – Tibet
(Udayvir Ahuja – Observer Research Foundation) Tibet captured global attention following World War II when the People’s Republic of China annexed it in 1950. However, in the past two decades, Tibet’s struggle for autonomy has largely faded from the forefront of international consciousness, becoming a footnote among the freedom movements of the 21st century. Aside from Nepal and India, which are home to the majority of the Buddhist Tibetan refugees, it is the United States, which has arguably played a more significant role in keeping the Tibetan movement alive in the international arena. Most recently, on 12 July 2024, US President Joe Biden signed the ‘ Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’, also dubbed as the Resolve Tibet Act. America’s gambit: Putting Tibet in the legal spotlight (orfonline.org)
USA – Ukraine
(Andrew D’Anieri – Atlantic Council) Since February 2022, dozens of US senators and representatives, both Democrats and Republicans, have made the long journey to Kyiv to show support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. It’s a challenging trip from Washington involving multiple flights, a sometimes-jammed border crossing, and a long train ride. But the chance to show US support and learn more about Ukraine’s struggle up close evidently makes the journey worthwhile. New US-Ukraine partnership proposal from influential senators is a recipe for bipartisan success – Atlantic Council
