From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Afghanistan
(Crisis Group) The Taliban have instituted a ban on narcotics in Afghanistan. While that has led to a massive drop in production, it is hitting the rural poor particularly hard. Foreign donors should work with the government to ensure the policy does not further undermine vulnerable populations. – Trouble In Afghanistan’s Opium Fields: The Taliban War On Drugs | Crisis Group
China
(Zongyuan Zoe Liu – Council on Foreign Relations) Small chemical manufacturers in China have become shadow suppliers fueling clandestine labs in Mexico and beyond, churning out illicit fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances that are contributing to the global drug trade and the U.S. opioid epidemic. Despite more than three decades of China regulating the production and distribution of fentanyl and its precursors, a sprawling cottage industry of small chemical plants thrives, partly bolstered by industrial policies aimed at boosting Beijing’s chemical and pharmaceutical sectors. Today, international drug cartels are increasingly turning to specialized Chinese criminal gangs for swift, cheap, and secure money laundering services. – What Is China’s Role in Combating the Illegal Fentanyl Trade? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
China – Africa
(Tighisti Amare, Alex Vines OBE – Chatham House) The ninth Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, which ended on 6 September, demonstrated both continuity and change in China’s partnerships with Africa. Less grandiose than the 2018 iteration, the summit nonetheless highlighted China’s continued attraction for African leaders. 51 African heads of state were present – many more than are scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly this month. However, the summit also revealed potential tensions between China’s geopolitical ambition and the views of a diverse and rapidly changing continent. – China–Africa summit: Why the continent has more options than ever | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
European Union – Russia
(Robin Brooks – Brookings) Global exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus have risen sharply. This export boom began immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine and is so massive that transshipments to Russia are the only credible explanation. Countries in the EU—especially Germany and Italy—are the biggest drivers, while transshipments from Japan, the U.K. and the US are much more modest. These exports are a rounding error for the German and Italian export machines, which means prohibiting them would do little harm to German and Italian growth. – Transshipments from the EU to Russia (brookings.edu)
Somalia
(Crisis Group) An Islamic State branch has acquired a foothold in Puntland, in north-eastern Somalia, and has been channelling funds to the jihadist network’s other African affiliates. Curtailing the group’s activities will require the Somali government and Puntland authorities to overcome their divisions to take concerted action. – The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat | Crisis Group
South Sudan
(Crisis Group) As South Sudan contends with a prolonged political and economic crisis, Kenyan mediators are attempting to broker an agreement between the country’s government and exiled opposition leaders. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech assesses how the talks are progressing. – High Stakes for the South Sudan Talks in Kenya | Crisis Group
Sudan
(Michael Jones – RUSI) As fighting between Sudan’s warlords rages on, the levels of destruction visited on the country not only expose chronic failures in the global response but are feeding into new power dynamics that will likely define the scope, resonance and durability of peace-making efforts going forward. – Sudan’s Nadir? Pressing Needs and New Realities | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
UK
(Trevor Taylor – RUSI) The armed forces minister’s statement in July that GCAP’s future would be decided as an element in the promised defence review created doubts that could limit the readiness of foreign administrations and domestic companies to trust the UK government. The Labour Party consistently supported Tempest and the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) in opposition. Speaking in Parliament in December 2023, then Shadow Defence Minister John Healey, after stressing the multidimensional importance of the project, welcomed the signature of the treaty establishing an intergovernmental organisation to manage the programme. – The Damage from Doubt: Labour’s Clumsy Handling of the GCAP Programme | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
UK – Japan
(Joseph Jarnecki, Philip Shetler-Jones and Pia Hüsch – RUSI) Agreed strategic priorities and concrete activities demonstrate that the UK–Japan Cyber Partnership has momentum. They also reflect the commitment of each country to cyber as an international policy area. – What Next for the UK–Japan Cyber Partnership? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
UN
(Crisis Group) The war in Gaza has highlighted how debilitating major-power division can be for the UN. Yet the organisation is not hamstrung: in several crises around the world, diplomats can agree on modest initiatives to curb violence and shore up stability. – Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025 | Crisis Group
USA
(Stimson Center) On September 10, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris took the stage for the first – and potentially the only – debate bringing the two candidates together to examine their domestic and foreign policy platforms. Stimson experts unpack the issues, motivations, and strategies behind their debate answers through a foreign policy lens. – Foreign Policy Priorities in the September 2024 Presidential Debate • Stimson Center
(David Lubin – Chatham House) Mao Zedong was no monetary theorist, but his reflections on power help explain why the dominant role of the US dollar will persist. ‘Power grows through the barrel of a gun’, he said. One could add that currency power does too. Throughout history, the top global currency has tended to be that of the dominant military power. Sterling ruled when Britain had an empire ‘on which the sun never set’, as did the silver Denarius and gold Aureus when Rome had its time. Currency power is a derivative of national power – and guns count. – US dollar dominance is both a cause and a consequence of US power | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) Kamala Harris went on the offensive against Donald Trump in Tuesday’s debate – and a CNN poll found that she outperformed her opponent by a landslide, at 63-37 per cent. But multiple polls also confirm that the election continues to be a dead heat, and too close to call where it matters most, in the small number of states that will swing the election. Undecided voters matter, but there are few of them in America today. Turnout is everything, and Democrats in swing states are harder to mobilize than Trump loyalists. – The Harris–Trump debate showed US foreign policy matters in this election | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Mark Muro, Julian Jacobs – Brookings) Last fall, we argued that the AI sector—especially large language model (LLM) activity—is being driven by concentrated research, modeling, and design work occurring in just a handful of “superstar” tech centers along the coasts: the Bay Area, Seattle, New York, and Boston. In that piece, we suggested that such concentration is a negative force in shaping AI development and, more broadly, U.S. economic growth. – The case for promoting the geographic and social diffusion of AI development (brookings.edu)
USA – UK
(Ryan Tully – RUSI) As the UK’s new Labour government conducts its national security review, its approach to nuclear modernisation will send a crucial message to the US. The UK’s nuclear deterrent is not just a national asset; it is a cornerstone of NATO’s collective defence strategy. How Labour navigates this issue will have far-reaching implications for transatlantic relations and the future of the Western alliance. – UK Nuclear Modernisation is Crucial for US–UK Relations and NATO’s Future | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
(Peter Westmacott – Atlantic Council) UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to the Oval Office on Friday comes at the end of a significant week for US-UK relations. Last weekend, the heads of the US Central Intelligence Agency, Bill Burns, and the UK Secret Intelligence Service, Richard Moore, wrote a joint column for the Financial Times reaffirming the readiness of their two agencies to stand together against “unprecedented” threats to their countries’ security and way of life posed by hostile states and actors. Burns and Moore also appeared together for a public event in London to drive home the message. – As Starmer visits the White House, the US-UK ‘special relationship’ must look forward – Atlantic Council
