From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Iran; Russia; US; US-Venezuela-China; Venezuela-Iran
Iran
(Vali Nasr – CSIS) On January 8, 2026, tens of thousands of Iranians, representing the spectrum of social and economic backgrounds, poured into the streets across the country in a singular show of force to demand an end to the Islamic Republic. Many called for a return of the monarchy. The crowds on January 8 and subsequent days have been among the largest since the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising, and have exceeded those protests in intensity. Security forces have reacted forcefully, killing large numbers of protesters. There is a palpable sense that the Islamic Republic is teetering on the verge of collapse before a surging revolution. President Trump is weighing options to intervene militarily, but that is a risky bet. Striking military sites could have little impact on crackdown on the street, and may even dissipate the protests. A broader attack targeting the security forces suppressing demonstrations would have to involve city centers and risk civilian casualties, which could in turn send protesters home. The impact of targeting Iran’s leaders is also unclear: It could clear the slate of current decisionmakers similar to what the United States has pursued in Venezuela, but that may not benefit protesters. – How Will the Trump Administration Respond to Violent Protests in Iran?
(Politico) Reza Pahlavi was in the United States as a student in 1979 when his father, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in a revolution. He has not set foot inside Iran since, though his monarchist supporters have never stopped believing that one day their “crown prince” will return. As anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people, despite an internet blackout and an increasingly brutal crackdown, that day may just be nearing. Pahlavi’s name is on the lips of many protesters, who chant that they want the “shah” back. Even his critics — and there are plenty who oppose a return of the monarchy — now concede that Pahlavi may prove to be the only figure with the profile required to oversee a transition. – Inside an exiled prince’s plan for regime change in Iran – POLITICO
(The Soufan Center) Anti-government demonstrations in nearly 200 Iranian cities continue to expand and intensify despite the increasing use of force by regime security forces. The failure of the security forces to quell the unrest indicates that the opposition is highly motivated and that security personnel might be hesitant to carry out orders to use massive force. Government leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene’i, are seeking to stiffen the resolve of regime supporters and the security forces by characterizing the demonstrators as “terrorists.”. President Trump is threatening to use force against Iran if the government employs massive force against protesters, but it remains unclear how U.S. intervention, if ordered, would help topple the regime. – Iran Protests Build Despite Regime Crackdown – The Soufan Center
(Suzanne Maloney – Brookings) After a year that delivered crushing reversals to its regional sway and deterrence, Iran’s Islamic Republic has begun 2026 besieged by historic internal upheaval. The anti-government demonstrations that began percolating across the country in late December in response to the catastrophic decline in its currency have intensified in recent days into something resembling a revolution. In cities across Iran, thousands have come to the streets despite massive state repression, denouncing regime leaders and smashing its symbols and attacking its infrastructure. A battle for the future of Iran is being waged on its streets by its citizens, but at present, they are facing steep odds. Tehran’s brutal response—an internet blackout, recalcitrant rhetoric, and a large-scale bloody assault on protesters—has not extinguished the uprising. However, the regime’s immense coercive and surveillance capabilities and its existential determination to prevail offer a decisive advantage. Credible reports of more than 10,000 detained and 6,000 killed over the past several days are likely an underestimate of the atrocities committed while the country was cut off from the world. – The new Iranian revolution has begun | Brookings
Russia
(Politico) When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, he promised Russians they would “do it again” — send their armed forces westward and sweep to victory like the Soviet Union did against Germany. Today, the Russian president has kept half that boast. As of this week, the war Putin once hoped would be over in just three days has stretched out for longer than Moscow spent fighting the Nazis. To make matters worse, even as Moscow bogs down in Ukraine, the global network of allies Putin spent two decades building seems to be falling apart, put to the test by an unexpectedly belligerent U.S. President Donald Trump. – Putin’s great-power project faces the ‘end of an era’ – POLITICO
US
(Atlantic Council) There’s a high level of interest in what happens next. The US Justice Department is undertaking a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, following a year of sparring between Powell and US President Donald Trump over interest rates. On Sunday night, Powell went public with his response to “this unprecedented action.” He called questions about the costs of the Fed’s headquarters renovation and Powell’s testimony to Congress “pretexts” for the administration’s ongoing pressure campaign. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” he said. How will these developments affect US and global markets, and what future actions should we expect from the White House and the Fed? – How will the Trump-Powell clash shake the global economy? – Atlantic Council
(David Wessel – Brookings) The Federal Reserve was created by an act of Congress in 1913 and, since 1977, has been charged with promoting maximum employment and stable prices. In practice, independence means that the Fed can set interest rates without interference from Congress or the White House even if politicians are unhappy with Fed policy—and say so publicly. Congress could, of course, change the law, but no bill to alter the Fed’s mandate or governance has gone very far. That’s because members of Congress generally recognize that if they or the president were able to directly influence the setting of interest rates, higher inflation would be the likely outcome. – Why is the Federal Reserve independent, and what does that mean in practice? | Brookings
US – Venezuela – China
(Ryan C. Berg – CSIS) When the Trump administration published its National Security Strategy (NSS) in December 2025, it ignited a debate about the extent to which the document would guide U.S. strategy. While the NSS is often a statement of intention and envisages the world U.S. administrations would like to see, this NSS’s emphasis on the Western Hemisphere as a strategic priority for the United States heralded the profound shifts currently underway in U.S. foreign policy. And less than one month after the document’s release, President Trump launched Operation Absolute Resolve, an extraordinary military operation to capture the erstwhile Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, whisking them to the United States to face charges of drug trafficking and weapons possession stemming from a 2020 indictment. The daring gambit, which reminded the world that Trump has a knack for using force in surprising ways, was a dramatic display of power in the United States’ own neighborhood, while the tactical success and the flawless execution of the operation itself surely rank among the annals of special operations lore. Although the strongman was the prime target of the U.S. snatch-and-grab operation, China, too, was one of its principal audiences. Contrary to what some commentators have maintained, China is also one of the biggest losers in the aftermath of the raid. Operation Absolute Resolve sent a powerful message to Beijing that the United States is, in fact, serious about the competitive instincts contained in the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Ultimately, the Trump administration hopes to preside over a reduction in China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere and an increase in U.S. strategic solvency following decades of neglect in its own shared neighborhood—primarily through economic statecraft, maneuvering, and even coercion, but also through military means if necessary. – The Geopolitics of Maduro’s Capture: China’s Future in Latin America Following Operation Absolute Resolve
Venezuela – Iran
(Joze Pelayo, Kirsten Fontenrose, and Ellie Sennett – Atlantic Council) As critics of Washington’s capture and criminal indictment of Venezuelan head of state Nicolás Maduro made connections to other US regime-change operations in the Middle East, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CBS’s Face the Nation: “The whole foreign policy apparatus thinks everything is Libya, everything is Iraq, everything is Afghanistan. This is not the Middle East. And our mission here is very different. This is the Western Hemisphere.”. He also emphasized that Venezuela can “no longer cozy up to Hezbollah and Iran in our own hemisphere.”. There are clear implications of the Maduro arrest with respect to US-Iran policy and President Donald Trump’s calculus on strategic action against Washington’s adversaries. The US president has indicated he is weighing “very strong” options on Iran as demonstrations there escalated and the death toll rose sharply over the weekend, according to rights groups. And as Rubio indicated, the operation could also have a more immediate impact on Tehran’s interests and operations abroad—with Venezuela serving as a foothold for Iran and its proxies in the Western Hemisphere. – The Venezuela-Iran connection and what Maduro’s capture means for Tehran, explained – Atlantic Council
