From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Afghanistan-Pakistan; Artificial Intelligence; China; Munich Security Conference; Russia; Russia-Ecuador; US; US-Canada; US-Mexico-Canada; US-Taiwan
Afghanistan – Pakistan
(Rahim Nasar – The Jamestown Foundation) On October 9, 2025, Pakistan allegedly carried out airstrikes in Kabul targeting the leadership of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which it accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring. The Taliban has responded with a digital war against Pakistan, using controlled social media platforms, insurgent poetry, militant and jihadist anthems, to reframe Pakistan-Afghanistan relations in ethno-nationalist, jihadist, and territorial terms. The digital war campaign intends to deconstruct the power of the Pakistani military, undermine the trust of Pakistanis in security institutions, add fuel to ethnic division, and build an anti-Pakistan perception at the regional level. – The Afghan Taliban’s ‘Digital War’ Against Pakistan – Jamestown
Artificial Intelligence
(The Soufan Center) Generative AI is hollowing out the information environment, creating a crisis of authenticity and trust that is both a result of and a facilitator for information operations by malicious actors. State and nonstate actors are naturally exploiting AI to scale information operations through mass synthetic content production, automated bot dissemination, and the manipulation of recommendation algorithms that feed netizens what they see on their digital feeds. Large Language Models occasionally generate responses that directly link to websites and social media content that are verifiably part of a foreign information operation. An AI-replete information environment erodes cognitive security, fostering confusion and mistrust to the point where audiences may cease believing any source at all, which various adversaries consider an end in itself. – War on Minds: Artificial Intelligence and the Information Environment – The Soufan Center
China
(Brandon Tran, Gerui Zhang – The Jamestown Foundation) As Xi Jinping looks to rebuild the Central Military Commission (CMC), Defense Minister Dong Jun is a strong contender for elevation to the military’s highest decision-making body. Dong’s has operational experience as deputy commander of the Eastern Theater Command Navy, deputy commander of the Southern Theater Command, and commander of the PLA Navy, where he likely oversaw gray zone activities. Dong also has ties to Xi via the “Fujian Clique”—officers Xi worked with while a junior official in the southeastern province. Though the clique’s most prominent members, He Weidong and Miao Hua, were purged from the CMC in October, Xi nevertheless appears to trust Dong, who remains the only three-star flag officer to reemerge intact after being placed under investigation. Xi selected Dong in 2014 to receive professional military training in Russia, another sign that Xi has previously seen him as both loyal and competent. Beyond Dong, another contender is Major General Zhou Hongxu, head of the trusted Central Guards Bureau. One- and two-star flag officers may also be under consideration. – Defense Minister Dong Jun Leading Contender for CMC Seat – Jamestown
Munich Security Conference
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Close your eyes and shut out the cacophony—from Trumpian rostrums against Europe to agitated social media clamor opposing the US president—and there’s much more to like about the current world than conventional wisdom would suggest as leaders arrive here for the Munich Security Conference (MSC). The MSC, arguably the most significant annual transatlantic security gathering, itself contributed to the unsettling noise in its conference-opening report, titled “Under Destruction,” setting the stage for one of the most crucial convenings in its sixty-three-year history. “The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics,” the report explains. “Sweeping destruction—rather than careful reforms and policy corrections—is the order of the day. The most prominent of those who promise to free their country from the existing order’s constraints and rebuild a stronger, more prosperous nation is the current US administration. As a result, more than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.” – Dispatch from Munich: Present at the destruction or the creation? – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Ever more Russian commentators are saying the oblasts, krais, and republics of their country are “on the brink of bankruptcy.” The federal subjects’ financial problems are the result of Moscow’s policies. Moscow takes a disproportionate share of the revenues the regions collect and returns only a small portion. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin demand that the regions implement their policies, but do not allow them to retain the requisite funds. This arrangement is creating serious problems for governors who, instead of the Kremlin, are now the targets of popular anger. This dynamic has the potential to transform regional leaders from loyal servants of Moscow into its opponents if the center’s power weakens. – Russian Regions Starved for Money by Moscow Facing Serious Financial Problems – Jamestown
Russia – Ecuador
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Estonia’s seizure of a Bahamas-flagged ship suspected of links to Ecuador–Russia smuggling highlights Moscow’s continued economic engagement with Latin America, one way that Russia sustains influence in the region despite sanctions and political friction after 2022. After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia shifted its Latin America policy away from ideology, prioritizing economic channels for political leverage, with Ecuador demonstrating how Moscow can pressure distant, export-dependent economies to reverse decisions viewed as unfriendly. The 2024 “banana-flower” dispute showed how Moscow successfully uses even relatively small economic ties to exert political pressure. Ecuador reversed a decision to transfer Soviet-era military equipment to the United States that may have ended up in Ukraine to avoid losing access to Russian markets for its bananas. – Russia Leverages Economic Ties to Exert Political Pressure on Ecuador – Jamestown
US
(Varun Sivaram, Alice C. Hill, David M. Hart – Council on Foreign Relations) In 2009, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) formally concluded that climate change caused by the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere endangers public health and welfare. Based on scientific evidence and research, the agency identified six greenhouse gases as the main climate culprits and established the legal basis to regulate them under the Clean Air Act. This week, President Donald Trump’s administration formally rescinded that determination, commonly known as the Endangerment Finding. If it survives what is expected to be prolonged legal challenge, the administration’s move would upend the government’s primary legal basis for regulating emissions of those greenhouse gases from cars and trucks, the largest source of U.S. emissions. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin celebrated the change as “the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States.” – Paths Forward After Trump Repeals EPA Greenhouse Gas Protections | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Canada
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) The House of Representative voted 219 to 211 yesterday to revoke the tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on Canada last year. The move is being portrayed as a political rebuke of the president given that six Republicans crossed the aisle to join with nearly all Democrats on the motion. The vote is better viewed, however, as example of why Congress struggles to constrain presidents. Yesterday’s vote was made possible because of a quirk of the law that Trump used impose tariffs on Canada, the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump argued that Ottawa’s supposed failure to stem the flow of fentanyl into the United States constituted a national emergency under the provisions of IEEPA, empowering him to impose tariffs, even though the law does not expressly give him that power. – The House Votes to Rein in Trump’s Canada Tariffs | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Mexico – Canada
(Jason Marczak – Atlantic Council) The US president is reportedly musing about the possibility of exiting from the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, a trilateral trade pact up for review this summer. Mexican officials and business leaders are concerned about the implications of a US withdrawal but are more focused on ironing out key irritants in the current agreement. While talk of a US exit might continue, ongoing negotiations in a US midterm election year, with a Mexican administration on good terms with the White House, favor a deal. – Dispatch from Mexico City: Trump’s latest consideration of USMCA withdrawal meets a measured reaction – Atlantic Council
US – Taiwan
(David Sacks, Steven Honig – Council on Foreign Relations) Taiwan has become only the seventh U.S. trading partner to reach a Reciprocal Trade Agreement with the Trump administration. Under the terms of the deal, the United States will reduce the reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent, Taiwan will reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, Taiwanese firms will invest at least $250 billion in the United States for semiconductor production, and Taiwan will guarantee $250 billion in credit for these companies. Taiwan also committed to increasing its purchases of American products, including $44.4 billion of liquefied natural gas and crude oil, $15.2 billion of aircraft and engines, and $25.2 billion of power-generation equipment. The agreement should help bring much-needed predictability to a critical bilateral economic relationship and foster closer economic ties. At the same time, though, it is unlikely to resolve key issues. America’s trade deficit with Taiwan (the sole rationale for President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs) is set to expand. Differences over the extent to which chip production can and should be relocated to the United States will persist. Questions about Taiwan’s management of its currency, the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD), could grow. The AI boom, while underscoring Taiwan’s importance as a U.S. partner, may also exacerbate concerns about relying too much on the island to help fuel a critical driver of U.S. economic growth. – U.S.-Taiwan Trade Agreement Leaves Major Questions Open | Council on Foreign Relations
