From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, Gaza Strip, Global Energy Transition, India, India-Indonesia, India-Myanmar, Iran-Afghanistan, Israel-Bahrain, Malaysia-Israel, North Korea, Russia, Russia-Abkhazia, Russia-Belarus, Sri Lanka, UAE-Africa, Uganda-Democratic Republic of the Congo, US, US-Pakistan, US-Panama, Vietnam
Africa
(Eric White, Nitin Jain – World Economic Forum) Climate change solutions represent a $3 trillion investment opportunity in Africa but the continent is experiencing a significant gap in private sector financing. Unlocking and scaling private sector investments will help strengthen climate resilience efforts across Africa in sectors such as agriculture, water and infrastructure. A new platform to grow private investment in climate adaptation in Africa, resulting from a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and the Global Center on Adaptation, has already secured a $1 billion commitment. – Investing in climate resilience for Africa and for the world | World Economic Forum
Gaza Strip
(Kobi Michael – INSS) After each round of violent clashes between Israel and Hamas, the issue of rehabilitating the Gaza Strip and improving its economic situation is raised once again. The accepted working assumption is that given suitable political conditions, and in the framework of a political process based on an attempt to promote the realization of the two-state paradigm, in which the Gaza Strip and the West Bank are considered one political and territorial unit under the control of the Palestinian Authority, it will be possible to rehabilitate the Strip. But it appears that nobody has ever asked if the Gaza Strip can indeed be rehabilitated. In this paper I will try to clarify the meaning of “rehabilitation” in the context of the Gaza Strip, and with the aid of a matrix of variables, those that facilitate rehabilitation and those that disrupt it, examine a number of basic questions dealing with the actual feasibility of rehabilitating the Gaza Strip under existing conditions. Following that, with reference to my conclusion regarding the absence of sufficient conditions for a successful rehabilitation process, I will describe the characteristics of this state of affairs and its ramifications, and propose a number of possible options for dealing with the emerging situation in the absence of rehabilitation, with an emphasis on the importance of adopting logical guidelines which do not currently exist but which are here deemed to be essential for the success of such a process. The conclusion of this paper is that leaving Hamas in the Gaza Strip as a ruling entity and with their commitment to the preservation of the idea of armed resistance, are both strongly disruptive variables, and both are endogenous to the Palestinian system. Therefore, without neutralizing these two variables, or at least weakening them very considerably, it is hard to imagine that the rehabilitation process will succeed. – The Question Nobody’s Asking: Is it Even Possible to Rehabilitate* the Gaza Strip Under Existing Conditions, and if Not, What Then? | INSS
Global Energy Transition
(Jennifer Layke – World Resources Institute) The way we make and use energy is changing. With prices falling and technology more widely available, clean energy uptake is growing rapidly. Investment in new clean power now outpaces investment in fossil fuels. This represents tremendous progress — but affordable technology is only one piece of the energy transition puzzle. In many countries, rising energy demand driven by economic growth, electrification and new data centers is outstripping new clean supply. Strained, congested grids and extreme weather linked to climate change are causing more frequent power outages. Energy insecurity — exacerbated by the global pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and energy poverty remain stubbornly persistent. Over 700 million people still lack electricity access. The question now is how we address these shifts and challenges together. How do we harness the energy transition already underway to build a future where energy is clean, abundant and reliable for all? – 6 Ways to Accelerate the Global Energy Transition | World Resources Institute
India
(Namita Barthwal – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Technical issues, supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical pressures continue to hinder the long-term viability of the JF-17 fighter aircraft. Even so, India’s Tejas Mk1A programme could draw some lessons from the JF-17 programme, in terms of accelerating domestic integration, adopting a block-based production model and strengthening defence partnerships. – JF-17 Aircraft Exports: Key Lessons for India’s Tejas Programme – MP-IDSA
(Khup Hangzo – Vivekananda International Foundation) The shift to clean energy has significantly increased the demand for critical materials. Technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicle batteries require far more minerals than traditional fossil fuel-based systems, making the clean energy sector the primary driver behind the rising demand for these essential resources. From 2017 to 2022, the energy sector contributed to a 300% increase in lithium demand, a 70% rise in cobalt demand, and a 40% surge in nickel demand. By 2022, clean energy accounted for 56% of global lithium demand, 40% of cobalt demand, and 16% of nickel demand. The World Bank forecasts that by 2050, production of graphite, lithium, and cobalt will need to rise by over 450% from 2018 levels to meet growing energy storage demands. – National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM): A Strategic Approach to Strengthening India’s Mineral Security | Vivekananda International Foundation
India – Indonesia
(Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Defence and security cooperation between India and Indonesia made steady progress during the State Visit of Prabowo Subianto, President of the Republic of Indonesia, from 23rd to 26th January 2025. Subianto was the Chief Guest at India’s 76th Republic Day parade. The high-level Presidential delegation included Indonesian Navy Chief Admiral (Adm.) Muhammad Ali, who held bilateral discussions with the Chief of the Naval Staff Adm. Dinesh K. Tripathi to strengthen maritime ties between the two countries. Just a month earlier, during 15–18 December 2024, Adm. Tripathi was on a four-day official visit to Indonesia to consolidate bilateral defence relations between the two countries. Back-to-back important visits and engagements conveyed political intent in New Delhi and Jakarta to take forward the defence relationship, which is yet to realise its full potential despite having a comprehensive strategic partnership since 2018. However, there are several potential areas within the defence sector where both countries can collaborate closely to rapidly advance their defence relationship. – India–Indonesia Defence Ties: Potential Areas of Cooperation – MP-IDSA
India – Myanmar
(Rohit Raj – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The porous India–Myanmar border has been a cause of concern for peace, stability and economic development. This region faces multiple issues, such as drug trafficking from Myanmar, the influx of insurgents and the illegal arms trade exacerbating the security situation in the Northeast. In a bid to address the above-mentioned challenges, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on 6 February 2024 announced plans to fence the entire 1,643 km long India–Myanmar border. Further, to facilitate surveillance, a patrol track will also be paved along the border. – The Indo-Myanmar Border Fence: Challenges and Way Forward – MP-IDSA
Iran – Afghanistan
(Deepika Saraswat – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Iran seeks to manage tensions and avoid securitisation of relations. Iran also views its pragmatic ties with the Taliban as crucial for realising long-held geo-economic ambitions. Iran’s growing engagement with the Taliban comes in the context of the changing dynamics of Taliban’s ties with neighbouring and regional countries. – Iran’s Growing Engagement of the Taliban: Strategic Necessity vs Opportunity – MP-IDSA
Israel – Bahrain
(Sandra Sajeev D Costa – Manohar Parrikar Institute) While Bahrain has historically supported Palestinian statehood, normalising of relations with Israel under Abraham Accords in 2020 reflected a security-driven approach. Bahrain’s approach towards Israel and Palestine is a microcosm of the larger Gulf dilemma: balancing Arab solidarity with changing geopolitical realities in a volatile region. – The Evolution of the Israel–Bahrain Relationship – MP-IDSA
Malaysia – Israel
(Giora Eliraz – INSS) Given the particularly harsh rhetoric of Malaysia’s prime minister toward Israel since October 7, as well as his refusal to condemn Hamas’s attack and even referring to its members as “freedom fighters,” the responses given in a recent interview acknowledging Israel’s right to exist and to self-defense were surprising. This article examines whether this was an isolated incident, a public relations maneuver in the global arena, a desire for involvement in the Middle East, or perhaps an early sign of a shifting trend. – Malaysia—A Surprising Statement in the Israeli Context | INSS
North Korea
(Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein – East Asia Forum) North Korea continues to strengthen its international position through deeper ties with Russia. Although the nation seemingly flourished on the global stage with increased trade and military support to Russia, the domestic situation deteriorated due to increased governmental control, an extraordinary rise in food and foreign exchange rates, a stifling economy and considerable crackdown against foreign media. This left the ordinary North Korean citizens to bear the brunt of these hardships. – North Korean international gains belie its domestic struggles | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Abhigyan Raktim Duarah – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Russian economy has grown since 2022, despite the Russia–Ukraine conflict. However, structural fault lines in the economy have the potential to not just limit the ongoing growth, but further strain the economy into stagnation. – Russian Economy and the Ukraine Conflict – MP-IDSA
Russia – Abkhazia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Abkhazia, a break-away territory controlled by Russia, is preparing for decisive presidential elections on February 15, which could determine the future trajectory of the separatist region’s foreign policy and relationship to Moscow. Russia is supporting pro-Moscow candidate, former vice-president Badra Gunba, in the presidential race, hoping that if elected, he will fulfill Moscow’s demands for the construction of Russian settlements in Abkhazia and the privatization of Abkhazian property by Russian oligarchs. Fearing a change in Abkhazia’s foreign policy if opposition candidate Adgur Ardzinba wins, Moscow has lifted sanctions on Abkhazia and resumed financial transfers and the supply of electricity to the region to sway Abkhazia’s position in Moscow’s favor. – Moscow Increases Pressure on Separatist Abkhazia Ahead of Presidential Elections – Jamestown
Russia – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia and Belarus signed two security-related documents in December 2024 that deepen Belarus’s integration within Russia’s geopolitical influence and obligate the Belarusian leadership to participate in military conflicts alongside Russia, similar to the latter’s agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Union State locks in Russia’s control over Belarus’s foreign and defense policies, extending beyond the era of Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The Treaty significantly reduces Minsk’s strategic autonomy and sovereignty from Moscow by formally allowing for the deployment of Russian military bases and troops on Belarusian territory. – New Security Arrangements Between Moscow and Minsk Cement Russia’s Influence (Part 1) – Jamestown
Sri Lanka
(Neil DeVotta – East Asia Forum) The election of new Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna-led National People’s Power alliance’s parliamentary supermajority signal a significant political realignment in Sri Lanka, marginalising previously dominant politicians and promising to provide a transparent, accountable governance style. Through initiatives such as a three-pronged development plan and a commitment to a neutral foreign policy, the new government is attempting to bridge ethnoreligious divides, stimulate the economy, tackle corruption and manage relationships with global players like India and China while facing domestic discontent over issues like the rising cost of living and insufficient farmer assistance. – Breaking the cycle of old politics in Sri Lanka | East Asia Forum
UAE – Africa
(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) In FY23, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is poised to emerge as Africa’s largest development partner and investor (US$ 110 billion) in a five-year timeline, overtaking historically strong economic partners like the European Union, the United States and China. Collectively, Abu Dhabi invested/pledged US$ 97 billion in FY22 and FY23 in critical economic sectors such as logistics, energy, minerals and mining. Due to these sizable investments, the UAE emerged as the continent’s fourth largest investor in the past decade behind the EU, China and the US. The UAE is also the largest GCC investor in the continent. These massive investments also helped expand non-energy trade between the African countries and UAE from US$ 20 billion in 2012 to US$ 60 billion in 2022. – UAE’s economic engagement in Africa
Uganda – Democratic Republic of the Congo
(Economist Intelligence Unit) On February 4th Uganda deployed more than 1,000 additional troops to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), increasing its current troop deployment to about 5,000 soldiers. This followed an announcement by Uganda’s Ministry of Defence on January 31st that it would bolster the contingent of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF, Uganda’s army) in the DRC to safeguard Uganda’s interests during the ongoing conflict between the DRC’s Armed Forces (FARDC) and the Rwandan-backed Mouvement du 23 mars (M23) militant group. We do not expect Uganda to get pulled into the conflict between the DRC and M23, and our risk for a wider regional war remains low. – Uganda deploys additional troops to DRC – Economist Intelligence Unit
US
(Roshni Kapur – Observer Research Foundation) Donald Trump’s return to power has disrupted development assistance, multilateralism, and foreign policy. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has commenced a reassessment of all foreign aid initiatives for USAID to ensure that they are in line with US foreign policy following the release of the executive order by the President. The ‘stop work’ orders will apply to all foreign development assistance, except for those exempted, such as emergency food aid. While the announcement was not surprising, the speed, magnitude, and scale were unexpected. The order has also suspended USAID projects around the world. – Trump’s aid freeze: A shift from humanitarianism to realpolitik
(Economist Intelligence Unit) The US government has announced a blanket 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminium. This policy eliminates all previous exemptions for the existing 25% steel tariffs and cancels those for aluminium, while raising the aluminium tariff from the 10% rate introduced during the first Trump administration. Departing from earlier measures, the administration claims that no exemptions will be available, and existing agreements with third countries that previously secured tariff relief will be terminated. The “product exclusion process”, which allowed firms to apply for exemptions by demonstrating that no alternative domestic supply was available, has been abolished. The tariffs will come into effect on March 12th. The apparent absence of any exemption process is an additional cause for concern, but our baseline remains that some exemptions—both for countries who strike deals with the US and firms will be granted. Conflict with the EU is more likely owing to the lack of a Trump 1.0 steel or aluminium agreement and the need for Mr Trump to follow through on at least some of his threatened tariffs to retain credibility. – Trump escalates metals tariffs, but leaves room for talks – Economist Intelligence Unit
US – Pakistan
(Bharath R Nair – Vivekananda International Foundation) Discrepancies between U.S. and Pakistani data on foreign aid reveal a lack of transparency and accountability in Pakistan’s fund management. The U.S. reports billions in aid, while Pakistan records much less, suggesting potential under-reporting or misallocation. This issue could hinder the effective use of aid and future investments, making transparency essential for Pakistan’s development. – Contested Figures: The Reality of US Aid Assistance to Pakistan | Vivekananda International Foundation
US – Panama
(Hari Seshasayee – Observer Research Foundation) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s whirlwind tour of Central America and the Caribbean, less than two weeks since taking office, is predicated on two broad elements. First, it shines the spotlight on illegal migration, one of US President Donald Trump’s main campaign issues. Central America and the Caribbean account for 22 percent of the unauthorised immigrant population in the US, and immigration is a key agenda item with every country on this visit, including Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic. This sends a clear message to Trump’s base back home—the new administration intends to apply as much pressure as required to strike deals that stem the flow of illegal migrants to its borders. The second element is hard to miss these days: China. Beijing has rapidly expanded its clout in the Latin American region over the past two decades. Last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated a megaport in Chancay, Peru, run by a Chinese state-run company, boosting connecting between South America and Asia. China has been South America’s largest trading partner for more than a decade and is one of the region’s most important lenders and investors. It is thus no coincidence that Rubio’s visit is limited to Central America and the Caribbean, where the US still holds primacy as the largest trader and investor. Washington will maintain its authority in Central America and the Caribbean and hopes to signal to the larger Latin American region its intention of regaining influence in what was once considered its own ‘backyard.’ – US-Panama relations weather the storm
Vietnam
(Phuc Hai Tran – East Asia Forum) Vietnam’s 2024 economic strategy marks a radical departure from traditional low-value manufacturing. Under new leadership, the country pivots towards high-tech development, massive infrastructure projects and institutional reforms. By attracting global tech investment, implementing aggressive anti-corruption measures and pursuing a nuanced diplomatic approach, Vietnam aims to transform its economy and achieve high-income status by 2045. – Vietnam’s high-stakes economic pivot | East Asia Forum
