From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, Australia, Australia-US, China, China-South Asia, Global Defence, Global Trade, Iraq, Lebanon, Russia-Middle East-Ukraine, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine-Arab Gulf States, Syria, US, US-ICC
Africa
(Ben Shepherd – Chatham House) The fall of Goma to Rwandan-backed M23 rebels in late January underlines the return to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) of a model of hybrid cross-border warfare that many hoped had been left in the past. That it has been resurrected now suggests a rapidly changing geopolitical and security climate in Africa – one that established responses, from traditional peacekeeping to set-piece diplomacy, have proved inadequate to address. This nascent realpolitik is fraught with danger, not just for the DRC civilians caught in the conflict, but for regional and continental stability. – Events in the DRC show a new realpolitik is emerging in Africa – one that is fraught with danger | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Australia
(Henry Campbell – ASPI The Strategist) After bowing to the opposition on mandatory minimum sentences, the Australian government needs to reestablish its leadership in national security. Australia’s new anti hate crime amendment includes mandatory minimum sentencing for terrorism and certain hate crimes. The Labor government had resisted implementing mandatory minimums, but the Liberal-National opposition called for it. Parliament passed the bill for the law, the Criminal Code Amendment (Hate Crimes) Bill 2024, on 6 February. – A political fix in hate-crime and terror legislation shows the government isn’t leading | The Strategist
Australia – US
(Roland Rajah, Grace Stanhope – Lowy The Interpreter) International aid efforts are in chaos as the Trump administration moves to brazenly dismantle the United States’ foreign aid program and reshape whatever is left in its own image. America’s foreign aid has been almost entirely frozen and its independent aid agency virtually shuttered. The story is chaotic and unpredictable, as with all things Trumpian. Notionally, the freeze is to review programs for alignment with Trump administration priorities. However, the profound antipathy towards foreign aid of Donald Trump and billionaire first-bro Elon Musk who has led this effort suggests the world should brace for potentially deep aid cuts to follow. – How Australia should respond to the implosion of US aid | Lowy Institute
China
(John Culver – Lowy The Interpreter) For several years, the US security establishment appeared fixated on the year 2027 as the deadline set by Xi Jinping to compel Taiwan with military force. First raised by then-INDOPACOM commander Admiral Phil Davidson in a 2021 congressional hearing, it was promptly dubbed “The Davidson Window”. Senior US official statements more recently frame it as Xi seizing on 2027, the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding, to complete the material preparation required to make major combat operations possible, not an “invasion deadline”. For Xi, 2027 will also mark the 21st Party Congress, when he probably will secure his unprecedented fourth term as leader of the party, military, and government. The year will also end just as Taiwan’s next presidential election season is entering the home stretch before polling the following January. While the 2027 drumbeat by senior US officials has faded, revelations in recent months of surprising and troubling advances in the modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) since 2021 compel an assessment of expectations for the next two years before the once fateful “window” opens. – China, Taiwan, and the PLA’s 2027 milestones | Lowy Institute
China – South Asia
(Shantanu-Roy Chaudhury – RUSI) China has built and maintained a sophisticated and multi-layered approach to regional influence through engagements with countries such as Nepal and Pakistan. – The Chinese Communist Party’s Strategic Engagement in South Asia | Royal United Services Institute
Global Defence
(Fenella McGerty, Karl Dewey – IISS) In response to rising threat perceptions, global defence spending rose to USD2.46 trillion in 2024. Countries in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Europe saw major budget increases, although President Trump’s recent call for a minimum spend of 5% of GDP among NATO members remains unfeasible for most countries. – Global defence spending soars to new high
Global Trade
(Creon Butler – Chatham House) President Donald Trump has not yet officially withdrawn the US from the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, by imposing tariffs on China and nearly doing so on Canada and Mexico, he is walking away from WTO rules and norms. The rest of the world has a strong interest in maintaining the international trading system, even if the US chooses effectively to opt out. But this will require countries faced with US tariffs to complement their national responses with urgent collaborative action. – The international trading system needs urgent support to survive | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Iraq
(Michael Knights, Hamdi Malik, Sary Mumayiz – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) New data shows that Iran-backed Afghan and Pakistani terrorists are arriving at a broadening range of Iraqi military bases. – The Fatemiyoun/Zainabiyoun Influx: Iraq’s Intensified Hosting of Two U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups | The Washington Institute
Lebanon
(Hanin Ghaddar – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On February 7, Lebanon formed a new transitional government just three weeks after designating a new prime minister—no small feat. A process that usually takes months of political bickering was quickly overcome by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun just ahead of the looming deadline for extending the Hezbollah-Israeli ceasefire. Their achievement was greatly abetted by two foreign interventions: Israel’s resounding victory over Hezbollah in their latest war, and last week’s visit by U.S. deputy special envoy Morgan Ortagus, who clearly articulated Washington’s red lines regarding potential Hezbollah participation in the cabinet. – Lebanon’s New Government May Walk a Thin Line Between Promises and Compromises | The Washington Institute
Russia – Middle East – Ukraine
(Anna Borshchevskaya – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has dealt a significant blow to Russia’s ambitions in the Middle East. Yet Russia still retains influence across the region through trade, diplomacy, and military ties. Even now, Moscow maintains a presence in Syria, making it imperative for the West to capitalize on Russia’s setback there and work to reduce its influence across the region. One way to achieve this is by supporting Ukraine’s efforts to build stronger ties in the Middle East. – Ukraine Can Help Dismantle Russia’s Influence in the Middle East | The Washington Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine – Arab Gulf States
(Li-Chen Sim – Middle East Institute) The Russo-Ukrainian war may be taking place thousands of kilometers away from the Arabian Peninsula, but its impact on energy flows from the Gulf states is far from insignificant. Nearly three years on, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has reshaped trade and investment in the energy sector, leading to an increase in Gulf imports of Russian oil and a sharp rise in the region’s hydrocarbon exports to Europe as well as further fueling the growth of Gulf investment in renewable energy projects located in and targeting the continent. – Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on energy flows from the Arab Gulf states | Middle East Institute
Syria
(Aaron Y. Zelin – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Two months after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Syrian officials are preparing for a major international conference in Paris this week that will discuss their country’ political transition and reconstruction. To get a sense of where things stand today, foreign decisionmakers should focus on issues related to counterterrorism, accountability for Assad regime criminals, the future of Hezbollah and Iran’s local networks, Syria’s chemical weapons program, border arrangements with Israel, and the inclusivity of the political process. – The Status of Syria’s Transition After Two Months | The Washington Institute
(Devorah Margolin, Souhire Medini – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The international conference on Syria, to be held in Paris on February 13, will be the first gathering of international actors since the Trump administration took office, and the third conference of its kind since the fall of the Assad regime, following Aqaba and Riyadh. The agenda of the conference, which will be attended by numerous regional and international foreign ministers, including Syria’s, will focus on political transition, humanitarian aid, and rebuilding. Yet all eyes are on the Trump administration, since the conference comes as Washington has signaled skepticism toward ongoing engagement in Syria. The country’s transition—and the gathering in Paris—present the United States and its allies with an opportunity to create a roadmap with benchmarks for stabilizing Syria, and by extension the Middle East. In so doing, Washington can help set up a future without the need for U.S. forces in Syria or constant U.S. attention. – The Paris Conference on Syria: Coordination and a Roadmap Are Needed | The Washington Institute
US
(Nancy Qian – ASPI The Strategist) The opening salvos of US President Donald Trump’s trade war have sent shockwaves around the world. Over the past three weeks, his administration has broken with decades of free-trade orthodoxy, threatening to impose tariffs not only on strategic adversaries such as China but also on longstanding allies such as Canada and Mexico. Even Denmark—a NATO member and steadfast US ally during and after the Cold War—has found itself in Trump’s crosshairs. – Trump’s trade war is about more than trade | The Strategist
(Wendy Edelberg, Ben Harris, and Louise Sheiner – Brookings) Warnings that the rising U.S. federal debt will lead to economic catastrophe are heard with increasing frequency. Former Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels, for example, recently wrote: “With debts already about to surpass the nation’s entire GDP … only a dwindling number of denialists doubt that a cataclysmic reckoning … lies ahead,” (Daniels 2024). In this paper, we examine the various channels through which debt can affect the economy to assess the risk that elevated debt will lead to a crisis. – Assessing the risks and costs of the rising US federal debt
US – ICC
(Kelebogile Zvobgo – Brookings) On February 6, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to impose sanctions on officials, employees, and agents of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for “illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel.” The executive order, which restricts targets’ entry into the United States and allows their property and assets to be blocked, currently only names ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan as a target, but others are likely to follow. – ICC sanctions will hurt, not help, the United States
