Complex research (by Marco Emanuele):
Laboratori di pensiero complesso / Complex thinking laboratories | The Global Eye
La (vera) politica è umano-planetaria / (True) politics is human-planetary | The Global Eye
I futuri che ci aspettano / The futures that await us | The Global Eye
Tempi duri per il pensiero / Hard times for thinking | The Global Eye
Distinzioni fondamentali / Fundamental distinctions | The Global Eye
L’assoluto della sicurezza lineare / Absolute linear security | The Global Eye
Disumanità / Inhumanity | The Global Eye
From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Armenia-Azerbaijan; AUKUS; Australia; Cambodia; China; China-Taiwan; Gaza-Israel; Haiti; Japan; Myanmar; Russia; Russia-Ukraine; Sanctions; Sudan; Syria; United Arab Emirates-Italy; US; Yemen
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and U.S. President Donald Trump signed a seven-point joint pledge declaring their intention to pursue peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia during an August 8 meeting at the White House. During the same trip, the countries’ foreign ministers initialed the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations, a draft of a peace deal which would require a controversial amendment to Armenia’s constitution before being signed or ratified. In the seven-point joint declaration signed by both leaders, Armenia and Azerbaijan committed to work on a framework for granting development rights to the United States for the newly dubbed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transport route from Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia previously known as the Zangezur Corridor. The seven-point declaration and peace agreement draft are widely considered to be an important step toward a final agreement to normalize relations between the two countries, a path that is likely to take at least a year. – Armenia and Azerbaijan Agree on Next Steps at White House Summit – Jamestown
AUKUS
(Jason Van der Schyff, Courtney Stewart – ASPI The Strategist) Pillar Two of the AUKUS technology-sharing agreement offers more immediate benefits than the parallel, decades-long nuclear-submarine effort—but not until we fix serious shortcomings in its execution. It has six capability workstreams—undersea robotics, quantum, AI and autonomy, advanced cyber, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, and electromagnetic warfare—plus widely applicable efforts on innovation and information sharing. Unlike AUKUS’s submarine-focused Pillar One, these offer near-term opportunities for Australian companies to design, test and integrate technologies directly into allied systems. Done well, Pillar Two will lift alliance capability, strengthen sovereign industry and position Australia as a trusted developer of high-value technologies. – AUKUS Pillar Two can deliver fast—after we fix it | The Strategist
Australia
(Richard Maude – The Interpreter) The selection of Japan’s Mogami class frigate for the Royal Australian Navy is a perfect springboard from which Australian diplomatic leadership could help rally America’s shaken Indo-Pacific allies in support of a favourable regional balance of power. Trump’s remaking of America’s role in the world raises a thousand questions for Australian foreign policy, but none more consequential than for the nation’s highest priority – a stable Indo-Pacific in which the United States upholds peace and Australia has sufficient strategic and economic space to prosper. The amount of policy this single large objective consumes is breathtaking, whether contesting China in the Pacific, boosting relations with Southeast Asia, balancing economic interests with security concerns in China, supporting the United States to build the fabric of deterrence in the region, or plans for an Australian Defence Force with greater reach and offensive fire power. Still, seen from Canberra, the obstacles piling up in front of this singular strategic objective must be sobering. – Can Australia rally the Indo-Pacific allies? | Lowy Institute
(Raelene Lockhorst, Lucy Martin – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s national security is increasingly shaped by the resilience and presence of communities across our remote and strategically significant regions. With more than 10,000 km of vulnerable coastline, northern Australia is a crucial frontline both for border and biosecurity. Indigenous rangers are quietly playing a vital role in this space. By protecting ecosystems, maintaining biosecurity, supporting stable communities, and contributing to intelligence and emergency response, they are a national security asset hiding in plain sight. Their integration of traditional knowledge with modern conservation methods makes them uniquely capable, yet they remain under-recognised and under-resourced. The Indigenous Rangers Program was established in 2007 under the government of prime minister John Howard and was initially designed to integrate First Nations knowledge into land and sea management. Today, its impact has grown well beyond biodiversity protection. Indigenous rangers are often the first and sometimes the only responders along remote parts of our northern coastline. – Indigenous rangers: a national security asset hiding in plain sight | The Strategist
(Jason Van der Schyff – ASPI The Strategist) When asked on Insiders about the United States’ review of AUKUS contributions, Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy made a subtle but important point: Australia’s aid and diplomatic spending, particularly in the Pacific, should count as part of its broader security effort. He’s right, and we should take that one step further. Australia’s investment in international digital infrastructure closes development gaps, helping us deliver on the core promise of the Pacific family: that alignment with Australia will bring real, tangible improvements to people’s lives. Digital infrastructure influences every sector of modern economies, including health, education, e-commerce and public administration. Connectivity helps governments govern, enables trade and services, and strengthens national resilience. At the same time, it reinforces Australia’s role as the partner of choice in a region where strategic competition is sharpening. – Australia’s digital infrastructure is doing the work of deterrence | The Strategist
Cambodia
(Kosal Nith – East Asia Forum) Cambodia’s vulnerable households remain highly exposed to economic and climate shocks due to limited income opportunities and weak access to formal social protection. Informal social networks, strengthened by digital transfers, help families cope but cannot replace systemic support. A new Social Capital Hub could integrate community-based assistance with government coordination to provide aid and provide time for broader reforms to build a stronger formal safety net. – Connecting communities to support Cambodia’s vulnerable | East Asia Forum
China
(Henry Yep – Lowy The Interpreter) When making sense of China, fragments of information often form narratives that obscure reality. Our brains crave coherence, filling gaps with stories that feel true. Psychologists call this the narrative fallacy – the urge to impose order on ambiguity. In opaque systems like Beijing’s elite politics or the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), this instinct is magnified. For instance, President Xi Jinping disappears from public view for a period of time, and speculation surges about his health or even a possible coup. An unconfirmed report of a Chinese submarine accident spreads online, quickly becoming a symbol of institutional rot. A benchmark year like 2027 enters the discourse, and it becomes shorthand for when war over Taiwan will begin. Each claim has plausible context or hint of truth, which is exactly what makes it compelling. The danger comes when speculation calcifies into consensus, or when timelines and intent get conflated as facts. – The narrative trap: How we can misread China | Lowy Institute
China – Taiwan
(Nathan Attrill – ASPI The Strategist) The most sustained conflict unfolding between China and Taiwan is not taking place on the water or in the air; it is happening in cyberspace. Over the past two years, China has escalated a comprehensive cyber warfare campaign against Taiwan. The campaign is persistent, technically sophisticated and politically calibrated. It combines state-backed espionage, psychological operations, critical infrastructure intrusions and disinformation, and it is deeply integrated into Beijing’s broader effort to destabilise Taiwan with action below the threshold of war. China’s cyber activities against Taiwan are extensive and strategically coordinated. Prominent Chinese intruder groups capable of lurking in networks have conducted long-term cyber operations against Taiwanese government agencies, critical infrastructure and private sector entities. These campaigns are not solely intelligence-gathering exercises; many implant malware and establish persistent access that could be exploited in the event of a military contingency. – Digital siege puts Taiwan’s resilience to the test | The Strategist
Gaza – Israel
(UN News) The United Nations continues to draw attention to the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, where starvation and malnutrition are at the highest levels since hostilities began nearly three years ago. – Record starvation and malnutrition in Gaza; more West Bank displacement | UN News
(UN News) The UN organization which champions culture and education, UNESCO, has strongly condemned the targeted killing of six journalists in Palestine by an Israeli drone on 10 August. “I condemn the killing of journalists Anas Al-Sharif, Mohammed Qreiqeh, Ibrahim Zaher, Mohammed Noufal, Moamen Aliwa, and Mohammed Al-Khaldi and call for a thorough and transparent investigation,” UNESCO’s Director-General, Audrey Azoulay, said in a statement on Tuesday. – Gaza: UNESCO condemns ‘unacceptable’ killing of journalists | UN News
(UN News) Public health conditions in Gaza are “catastrophic”, with hospitals operating far beyond capacity. Some life-saving medicines are totally out of stock, while deaths from malnutrition and disease are on the rise, the UN health agency warned on Tuesday. Fewer than half of Gaza’s hospitals and under 38 per cent of primary healthcare centres are partially functioning – or are doing so at minimal levels – said Dr. Rik Peeperkorn, World Health Organization (WHO) Representative for the West Bank and Gaza. Bed occupancy in major facilities is exceeding limits by large margins – Shifa Hospital is at 250 per cent capacity, Nasser at 180 per cent, Al-Rantisi at 210 per cent and Al-Ahli at over 300 per cent. – Gaza health system ‘catastrophic’ as hospitals overwhelmed and medicines running out, WHO warns | UN News
Haiti
(UN News) During her final briefing as resident and humanitarian coordinator for Haiti, Ulrika Richardson struggled to describe the realities of life in Haiti. – The world has the tools to end Haiti’s crisis – it’s time to use them | UN News
Japan
(Stefan Aichholzer – East Asia Forum) Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology’s has proposed limiting the SPRING doctoral scholarship’s living expense support to Japanese nationals. While aimed at encouraging local enrolment, the move raises concerns about exclusion, particularly of Chinese students who make up a significant portion of recipients. It risks reinforcing structural inequalities and undermines Japan’s efforts to attract international talent, jeopardising its global competitiveness in science and higher education. – Japan’s scholarship rework reveals uneasy relationship with Chinese students | East Asia Forum
Myanmar
(UN News) UN-mandated independent investigators have uncovered “systematic torture” in Myanmar’s military-run detention facilities – including beatings, electric shocks, strangulations and gang rape – a pattern of atrocities which is intensifying across the country. In its annual report released on Tuesday, the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) said it had made “important progress” documenting crimes and identifying those responsible, including commanders of security forces overseeing detention facilities. Myanmar descended into civil war following the military coup of February 2021 and the detention of civilian leaders, including President Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. The takeover sparked mass protests, a violent crackdown on dissent and a nationwide armed resistance movement. – Myanmar: Rights investigators reveal ‘systematic torture’, sexual violence | UN News
Russia
(Sidharth Kaushal and Darya Dolzikova – RUSI) In this paper, the evolution of Russian nuclear doctrine is examined, focusing on the implications of recent geopolitical developments, Russia’s nuclear strategy and its flexibility in employing nuclear weapons. – The Evolution of Russian Nuclear Doctrine | Royal United Services Institute
Russia – Ukraine
(David Kirichenko – ASPI The Strategist) The Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a technological arms race, with uncrewed machines playing a central role across every domain of combat. The skies are now filled with aerial drones, and their kill zone continues to expand in all directions. Drones have revolutionised warfare on land and at sea, too. The latest development is the use of ground robots and their incipient transformation of frontline medicine. For Ukraine, unmanned systems have become a necessity in fighting a larger and better‑resourced enemy. With no sign of the war ending anytime soon, and with Russia willing to expend seemingly endless numbers of people, Kyiv is turning to technology to help ease the pressure on its mobilisation effort and to preserve the lives of its soldiers. – Ground robots are transforming battle-casualty evacuation in Ukraine | The Strategist
(Paul B. Stares – Council on Foreign Relations) Although the prospects for an early ceasefire in Ukraine remain poor, the United States, along with its European partners, should prepare and plan for a durable peace agreement. This includes designing ceasefire provisions that would help assuage Ukrainian and European concerns about potential Russian recidivism, specifically by making it prohibitively costly in political, economic, and military terms for Moscow to violate an agreement. – How a Ceasefire Agreement Can Bolster Ukraine’s Security—and NATO’s, Too | Council on Foreign Relations
Sanctions
(Tom Keatinge – RUSI) If universities in the West teach courses on sanctions and economic warfare, we shouldn’t be surprised by the emergence of a parallel world teaching the art of circumvention. – Teaching the Business and Art of Sanctions Circumvention | Royal United Services Institute
Sudan
(UN News) The UN has expressed deep alarm over a large-scale assault by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia on El Fasher, the government-held capital of Sudan’s North Darfur State, and the nearby Abu Shouk displacement camp, which has been under siege since April 2024. – Sudan: UN ‘deeply alarmed’ by major attack on besieged El Fasher | UN News
Syria
(UN News) The transformation over two decades of the once thriving Syrian city of Sweida from tourist destination to a landscape marked by violence and loss has been detailed by the chief of a UN migration mission who recently visited the area. – First Person: Echoes of war as aid arrives in Syria’s historical city | UN News
(Emirates Policy Center) Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa failed to secure a decisive victory in the battle of Suwayda, thus emerging politically weakened. This setback has further eroded his domestic legitimacy, diminished his authority and negatively impacted his regional and international standing. Israel is exploiting the claim of protecting the Druze to demilitarize southern Syria and curb Turkiye’s influence in this region. Sharaa’s position vis-à-vis Israel has grown increasingly fragile following the Suwayda campaign – particularly at a sensitive juncture in Syrian-Israeli negotiations over a potential non-aggression agreement. Despite ongoing political and diplomatic efforts surrounding Suwayda, a final settlement remains elusive. The ceasefire is widely perceived by all parties as a temporary truce, vulnerable to collapse any moment. Meanwhile, Israel continues to send reinforcements to the Druze fighters, further complicating the situation. The conflict has deepened internal fractures within Syria’s social fabric and underscored the urgency for Sharaa to recalibrate transitional policies. This includes promoting greater participation of regions and minorities in governance and revisiting his negotiation approach with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). – Emirates Policy Center | Conflict in Suwayda: The Need to Adjust the Transitional Track in Syria
United Arab Emirates – Italy
(Emirates Policy Center) UAE-Italy ties are experiencing remarkable expansion, particularly in key sectors such as defense, energy transition, artificial intelligence, infrastructure, rare metals and space. This momentum reflects a greater alignment of interests and priorities, alongside joint investment in areas shaping the world of tomorrow. There is a broad European desire for deeper economic and strategic engagement with Gulf countries, aimed at forging a more integrated framework between the Gulf region and the Mediterranean basin. While competition among European nations for Gulf investments exists, it remains manageable and can be channeled into constructive and mutually beneficial partnerships. Amid ongoing transformations in the Middle East over the past two years, a strategic window has opened for the Gulf and Europe to pursue a more integrated approach that benefits both parties. This is especially relevant given the growing recognition that European security, in its broad sense, is inseparable from the security of the Gulf and the wider Middle East region. – Emirates Policy Center | Developing Emirati-Italian Ties: Charting an Ambitious Path Toward Gulf-Mediterranean Integration
US
(Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Deploying the National Guard to patrol the streets of Washington, D.C., is the wrong solution to a perceived crime problem. Military forces are unsuited for law enforcement and can easily make the problem worse. A better approach would be to strengthen the D.C. police, the right tool for fighting crime. – Sending the National Guard into D.C. Is the Wrong Solution to a Crime Problem
Yemen
(UN News) UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg, briefing the Security Council on Tuesday, voiced concern over the latest clashes between Government forces and Houthi rebel militia. – Yemen: ‘Regional turmoil continues to erode prospects for peace,’ Security Council hears | UN News
