From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Australia
(Sophia Kagan – Lowy The Interpreter) At a press conference in Tonga last week, Australia’s Minister for International Development and the Pacific, Pat Conroy, was quick to defend the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme when a journalist noted that some had labelled it as “modern-day slavery”. A week earlier, the family of deceased Fijian PALM worker Christine Lewailagi had equated exploitation of PALM workers to modern slavery. Last month, the UN Special Rapporteur on contemporary forms of slavery, reviewing similar temporary and seasonal migration programs in Canada, noted that they serve as a “breeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery”. – The real risks of exploitation for Pacific workers in Australia | Lowy Institute
(David Malone – ASPI The Strategist) In the Northern Territory, the expansion of defence capabilities is intricately linked to the region’s construction industry. To provide the Australian Department of Defence the infrastructure it needs and wants, it must provide projects to keep construction workers consistently employed. – How Defence can become the employer of choice for construction workers | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Global Order
(Graeme Dobell – ASPI The Strategist) The contours of a new and dangerous era are in place. The world has gone from a chilly peace to a new cold war. Cold war 2.0 has rhymes from version 1.0, yet the origin stories emphasise the differences. The 20th century cold war was bred by victory and failure, a child of war and depression; ideology was its heart as two secular religions—communism and democracy—fought Europe’s last ‘religious’ war. The new cold war carries less ideological baggage, born from decades of peace in Europe and Asia and a wonderful period of economic and scientific achievement. – The 12 elements of cold war 2.0 | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Iran
(Kourosh Ziabari – Lowy The Interpreter) Much has been written about Iran’s Woman, Life, Freedom movement as a progressive rebellion against patriarchy. The 16 September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in custody of the morality police sparked protests across the country and outrage around the world. Amini’s death was the trigger for an instinctual response to the late President Ebrahim Raisi’s stultifying governance. – What Iranians want for their country | Lowy Institute
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Marcy Grossman – Atlantic Council) As Canada’s ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 2019 to 2022, I had a diplomatic front-row seat and occasional behind-the-scenes views into the quiet yet consistent progress that eventually led to the Abraham Accords. While I wasn’t surprised when the declaration was announced in 2020, I hadn’t anticipated how rapidly and warmly relations between Israel and its neighbors—Bahrain, the UAE, and later Sudan and Morocco—would evolve. Despite the turmoil in the Middle East since October 7, 2023—the pain, suffering, polarization, and destruction of land and hope—the Abraham Accords are still alive. They have laid a foundation far beyond any one conflict for greater peace in the region. Reflecting on their fourth anniversary, this piece explores where the Abraham Accords started, where they are today, and where they are headed. – As the Israel-Hamas war continues, the Abraham Accords quietly turns four – Atlantic Council
Sudan
(Zane Swanson, Anita Kirschenbaum, and Caitlin Welsh – Center for Strategic & International Studies) In April 2023, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces spread into a deadly civil war across Sudan. Now, 16 months since the onset of the conflict, extreme violence and restrictions to the flow of humanitarian aid have led to widespread acute food insecurity and the worst internal displacement crisis in the world. In July 2024, a judgment by the Famine Review Committee (FRC) confirmed the plausible presence of famine conditions in the Zamzam internally displaced persons (IDP) camp located in the state of North Darfur. As ceasefire negotiations continue to falter and severe flooding events lead to greater suffering, it remains to be seen whether this recent famine determination will catalyze the response that is needed. – Conflict, Hunger, and Famine in Sudan (csis.org)
Taiwan – China
(John Quiggin – Lowy The Interpreter) The recent release of Zero Day, a Taiwanese TV show aimed at alerting viewers to the threat of blockade and invasion by the armed forces of the People Republic of China (PRC), signals a notable change in discussion of this long-standing concern. Until a couple of years ago, the usual scenario was that of a seaborne assault similar the D-Day invasion of Normandy in 1944. A beachhead secured by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy would enable a huge armoured force to be transported across the Taiwan Strait. – The implausibility of a Taiwan blockade | Lowy Institute
(Joe Keary – ASPI The Strategist) Spiegel magazine has reported that two German warships are set to sail through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks, becoming the first German naval vessels to do so in 22 years. Germany will join a growing number of Indo-Pacific and European nations that regularly sail through the Taiwan Strait to challenge Beijing’s claims that the Strait is ‘internal waters’ belonging to China. – Which countries challenge China’s claim to the Taiwan Strait? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Turkiye – European Union
(Tom Waldwyn – IISS) As Turkiye’s defence-industrial strategy has changed over time, so have its interactions with other European countries in this sector. As part of a joint project with the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, this report explores selected European countries’ perspectives on working with Turkiye’s defence industry, looking both at their past records and the prospects for future cooperation. – Turkiye’s Defence-industrial Relationships with Other European States (iiss.org)
USA
(William A. Galston, Elaine Kamarck – Brookings) Harris had to convince swing voters that she has what it takes to serve effectively as the nation’s chief executive and commander-in-chief. Trump had to come across as someone who is not mean and angry, obsessed with the past and prone to conspiracy theorizing. Although there are many questionable policies being considered by Trump and the right wing of the Republican Party, such as slapping huge tariffs on U.S. imports and deporting millions of immigrants—by far the most dangerous one for him politically is abortion. The debate seems likely to put new wind in Harris’ sails. The Trump campaign must reckon with the likelihood that their candidate’s performance pleased his base without rallying many new supporters to his side. – The presidential debate accomplished more for Harris than it did for Trump (brookings.edu)
(Atlantic Council) With the world riveted by the US presidential election, the debate pivoted on the world. On Tuesday evening, former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris faced off in Philadelphia ahead of the November 5 vote. From tariffs to energy and immigration, and from China to the Middle East, the two candidates often presented sharply contrasting visions on a range of foreign policy issues—including consequential questions about the stakes for the United States in averting a Russian triumph in Ukraine and assuring a Ukrainian victory. – Experts react: What the presidential debate revealed about how Trump and Harris would conduct foreign policy – Atlantic Council
(Matthew P. Goodman – Council on Foreign Relations) Reports that President Joe Biden has decided to block the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan-based Nippon Steel have created a stir in Washington. If true, a decision to block the deal would be widely understood to be a political move to appeal to voters in Pennsylvania and the industrial Midwest. Politics matters, but so does policy, and neither would be well served by this action. – Blocking the Nippon Steel Acquisition: Politics Versus Policy | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Tara Watson, Simon Hodson – Brookings) Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released estimates suggesting that net immigration—inflows minus outflows—was 3.3 million in 2023. That is much higher than the 1 million or so they projected pre-pandemic for 2023, which was a more typical figure for the 2010s. There is also some uncertainty about the 3.3 million number, which is higher than the most recent Census estimate of 1.1 million net migrants for the year ending July 2023. Here we discuss the new immigrants: how they are arriving to the United States, what we know about them, and the economic implications of larger inflows. – Who are the new immigrants? (brookings.edu)
