From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Artificial Intelligence; Australia; Australia-Southeast Asia-Critical Minerals; Deterrence-Critical Infrastructure; Georgia; Germany; Indonesia; Indo Pacific; Russia; Russia-Ukraine
Artificial Intelligence
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) The headlines from Donald Trump’s recent meeting with Xi Jinping were all about the US and Chinese presidents reaching a trade truce. But what was lost in the news is a far more significant matter that will shape the high-stakes competition unfolding between the world’s two most significant powers: the contest for the commanding heights of artificial intelligence. The world has entered the most consequential tech race since the dawn of the nuclear age, but this time the weapons are algorithms instead of atoms. Rather than a race to obtain a single superweapon, this is one to determine how societies think, work, and make decisions. AI is transforming not only the distribution of power around the globe but also the very nature of that power and how it will be exercised. – It’s time to reckon with the geopolitics of artificial intelligence – Atlantic Council
Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Australia needs a dedicated aerospace testing range, and it should be in the Northern Territory. Developing aircraft, missiles and their equipment, and verifying new capabilities added to them, requires real-world testing in large airspaces equipped for the purpose. Australia’s defence and aerospace industry is growing rapidly. From hypersonic flight and autonomous systems to high-altitude platforms and next-generation drones, local firms are pushing into frontiers that demand real-world testing. This requires not just airspaces, but safety corridors and infrastructure that can capture and evaluate in real-time the performance of systems under test. – Why Australia needs an aerospace testing range in the Northern Territory | The Strategist
Australia – Southeast Asia – Critical Minerals
(Alice Wai – ASPI The Strategist) Global decarbonisation goals, the digital revolution and economic growth are driving an unprecedented rise in demand for critical minerals. At the same time, Southeast Asian nations are positioning themselves for varied roles in critical minerals supply chains. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam could expand as major resource producers and processors, while Singapore could become a minerals finance, investment and trading hub. However, weak infrastructure, uneven environmental regulation, climate pressures, fragile social licence and heavy reliance on China threaten Southeast Asia’s critical-minerals supply chain resilience and environmental sustainability. Australia—having a strong resource base and mining expertise, as well as established environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials—is well equipped to help Southeast Asia overcome these obstacles and to support its transition to a leading critical-minerals powerhouse. – Australia’s role in Southeast Asia’s critical-minerals development | The Strategist
Deterrence – Critical Infrastructure
(Jason Van der Schyff – ASPI The Strategist) Deterrence has long been framed in terms of punishment and denial: states have sought to convince adversaries that aggression would be too costly, either through retaliation or by making success unachievable. These approaches still matter, but the context has changed. In a world where adversaries can use disruption to achieve their strategic aims without firing a shot, deterrence depends on the resilience of a target country’s critical infrastructure—the systems that keep it functioning. Those systems include physical facilities, supply chains, information technologies and communication networks whose destruction or degradation would significantly affect a country’s wellbeing, or national security. They consist of not just fixed assets, but also the broader systems and supply chains that deliver essential services. – Resilient critical infrastructure is its own deterrence | The Strategist
Georgia
(Khatia Shamanauri – The Jamestown Foundation) Amid ongoing protests in Tbilisi, the ruling Georgian Dream party has passed a legislative package under which protesters may face jail time for what the government describes as blocking roads or wearing face masks. In recent weeks, the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs has detained dozens of people—including journalists, civil rights advocates, activists, and protesters—for participating in the demonstrations. Demonstrators say they remain determined despite these repressive measures and will continue to protest against the government’s crackdown. – Tbilisi Protesters Persist Amid Arrests and Fines – Jamestown
Germany
(Christian E Rieck – ASPI The Strategist) Germany needs to rethink its balance of hard and soft power if it is to reinforce its global role as the conditions for projecting soft power rapidly deteriorate. Since reunification in 1990, Berlin has cultivated a distinctive niche in international relations: focused on soft power and non-coercive influence, it has prioritised development cooperation, scientific diplomacy and economic interdependence as functional substitutes for power politics. Within this framework, Germany has seen itself as a Zivilmacht—a ‘civilian power’—a benign middle power that, through diplomacy, development and defence, invests in regional and global institutions to provide global public goods. – Germany needs hard power to support global role | The Strategist
Indonesia
(Fitriani and Jascha Ramba Santoso – ASPI The Strategist) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s first year in office has made clear that his technology agenda is about digital sovereignty and state capacity, beyond shiny infrastructure. While his digital policy sits quietly behind populist social programs of free nutritious meals for students and healthcare vouchers for the poor, it’s no less impactful. The jury is still out on how effective his digital policy is in supporting Indonesia’s ambitious 8 percent economic growth target, but it marks a distinct shift from his predecessor’s focus on infrastructure development. – Indonesia’s digital direction under Prabowo | The Strategist
Indo Pacific
(Jason Van der Schyff and James Corera – ASPI The Strategist) Governments across the Indo-Pacific are facing a critical question: who can be trusted to build and manage our most sensitive systems? Vendor choices, for everything from cloud infrastructure to identity platforms, are no longer just commercial; they are strategic. As cyber threats rise, supply chains fragment and coercive pressure grows, countries need better ways to assess technology providers and manage risk. Too often, decisions rest on instinct or political reaction rather than structured assessment. Phrases such as ‘secure by design’ or ‘don’t trust, verify’ are common. But without a framework, they’re slogans, not standards. – Building trust into tech: a framework for sovereign resilience | The Strategist
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Only one percent of pupils in the Russian Federation are studying in a non-Russian language school, half as many as nine years ago, and far less than the share of Russian citizens whose primary language is not Russian. The decrease in schools teaching in non-Russian languages threatens the survival of minority languages and the cultural heritage of their nations. Russian President Vladimir Putin is pushing homogenization, but has sought to obscure it through the “folklore-ization” of these peoples. These policies may backfire if they change the meaning of being an ethnic Russian, angering Russian nationalists, or if they lead to the rise of Russian-speaking non-Russians better able to compete in the job market, who still face ethnic discrimination. – Only One Percent of Pupils in Russia Study in Non-Russian Languages – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The failed attempt to organize a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in Budapest deepened tensions over the war against Ukraine, prompting renewed Russian nuclear posturing and strategic unease. Putin’s reliance on exaggerated battlefield “successes” and nuclear brinkmanship reveals his effort to project strength amid domestic stagnation and waning military momentum. Mounting economic decline, elite discontent, and Western sanctions are pressuring Putin toward potential ceasefire flexibility, but his fear of appearing weak may limit genuine compromise despite the possible appeal of renewed negotiations. – Talks On Peace Deal for War Against Ukraine Can Still Rebound – Jamestown
