Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
ASEAN
(East Asia Forum) ASEAN centrality, a key element in regional security and Asia’s multilateral cooperation, can be deployed to ensure that Asia’s future is not dictated predominantly by great power interests. ASEAN’s balancing role and its inclusive approach position it uniquely in handling US-China policy competition at the same time as safeguarding the global interests of its own members and those of its regional partners, and creating development opportunities through trade and investment ties with the major powers. ASEAN centrality: use it or lose it | East Asia Forum
Australia
(Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist) If Australia and like-minded nations want secure, sustainable critical-minerals supply chains, they must tackle the interrelated challenges of price premiums and global environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards. Australia and its miners are leaders in ESG performance in mining. Meeting high standards, however, costs more than working to lower ones. Sustainable critical materials can’t have a price premium without global standards | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Anthony Milner – East Asia Forum) The so-called ‘rules-based order’ — which Australia has been promoting — is in crisis. But the continued need for international rules — including in such emerging areas as artificial intelligence and health — is widely acknowledged. Today, in an increasingly multipolar region, rulemaking will take place in a plural and not merely liberal framework. ASEAN’s inclusive institutions could be ideally suited for this work. Australia — which has a track record in rulemaking, especially as a broker between large and smaller nations — has an opportunity to work with Southeast Asian countries, seeking to reconcile different interests and ideologies. Australia’s dealings with Asia should focus on rules, not the ‘rules-based order’ | East Asia Forum
Bangladesh
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) An interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has taken charge of a fractured Bangladesh after a meeting between President Mohammed Shahabuddin, military leaders and student activists. Promising to “uphold, support and protect the constitution”, Yunus has called for the restoration of law and order as his government faces the reality of the withering away of state apparatus. Sheikh Hasina is gone, but the real challenge begins now. A new reality confronts the people of Bangladesh. There is a new sense of optimism, but it is embedded in a deeply divided society and polity. Bangladesh’s New Reality Doesn’t Bode Well For India’s Security (orfonline.org)
(Yanitha Meena Louis – Lowy The Interpreter) What started as a student protest against a High Court ruling that reinstated a quota system for government jobs has rocked Bangladesh to its core, leading Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee in the middle of the night in a helicopter to New Delhi. The total death toll stands at 440 since 16 July, and the country’s domestic economy is battered, with losses estimated at billions of dollars. The binary trap after Bangladesh’s unrest | Lowy Institute
Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(Karolina Zubel – Center for Social and Economic Research) This study addresses the critical issue of water scarcity in the Mediterranean region, where 180 million people already face water shortages, a number projected to rise to over 250 million by 2050 due to climate change. The research highlights the urgent need for an additional 25 billion cubic meters of water annually to meet the demands of the broader Middle East and North Africa region. Focusing on water resilience, the study emphasizes the importance of ensuring cities and regions can withstand water-related shocks, such as droughts, sea level rise, and flooding. The role of Local and Regional Authorities in ARLEM countries is explored, showcasing their current efforts, achievements, challenges, and potential solutions in building water resilience. The contribution of the Mediterranean cities and regions to building water resilience – CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research (case-research.eu)
Germany
(Kiel Institute for the World Economy) For the first time in around two years, German real estate prices have been rising across the board in the second quarter of 2024. All market segments—apartments, single-family homes, and multi-family homes—were increasing in value compared to the previous quarter Q1 2024. Price increases were also outperforming current inflation rates. GREIX Q2 2024 – Turnaround on German real estate market has begun | Kiel Institute (ifw-kiel.de)
Iran
(INSS) The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University (ACIS) held a joint conference examining Iran’s place in the changing global order, focusing on its relations with Russia and China. Iran in the New World | INSS
Israel
(Anthony De Luca-Baratta, William Erich Ellison, Joseph Schneider Malamud, and Mollie Sharfman – The National Interest) After Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, most of the Western world united in its support for Ukraine against the Russian assault. The United States and its allies across Europe, Northeast Asia, and Australasia imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia, reduced diplomatic ties with Moscow, and began providing Kyiv with enormous quantities of economic, humanitarian, and military aid. Nevertheless, Israel did not go nearly as far as most other Western democracies in its support for Kyiv. Should Israel Cross Russia‘s Rubicon? | The National Interest
(Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal, Brig. Gen. (res.) Ran Kochav – BESA Center) The current war, and Hezbollah’s drone strikes, have made clear that Israeli air superiority does not apply to the “low sky” layer. The fact that the enemy is targeting the air defense itself stands out. The security establishment is working on finding solutions to the challenge, but development and procurement alone will not be enough. The basic premise of our air defense system has been undermined. The system must be reorganized on the basis of two understandings: first, that destroying Israeli air defense will be the enemy’s first goal; and second, that the challenge of protecting the forces at the front requires different organizational and command and control means than the challenge of protecting the home front. As did the anti-aircraft units of the past, our tactical air defense at the front requires reorganization. To Defend Israel, Rearrange the Sky (besacenter.org)
North Korea
(Khang X. Vu – Lowy The Interpreter) It is still August, yet for North Korea, 2024 has been a remarkable year. In January, Kim Jong-un declared that North Korea had abandoned a goal of unification with South Korea, a policy that had been in place for at least seven decades. A month later, Kim promised to build 200 new rural factories over the next ten years. In April, the country welcomed China’s Zhao Leji, the third-highest ranking member of the Chinese Communist Party, for the first high-level talks since the Covid-19 pandemic. Family ties? How Kim Jong‑un is going his own way | Lowy Institute
UK – Indo Pacific
(Patrick Triglavcanin – Lowy The Interpreter) Labour’s first month in office should reassure those wanting to see a United Kingdom remaining engaged in the Indo-Pacific – particularly in Australia given the future submarine ambitions via AUKUS. The change at 10 Downing St has already shown clear points of difference to the previous Conservative approach to foreign policy, but the overarching strategic, economic and normative rationale remains the same. Starmer’s Labour sets out to sustain Indo‑Pacific ties | Lowy Institute
USA
(Célia Belin, Mireia Faro Sarrats, and Chris Herrmann – European Council on Foreign Relations) Kamala Harris has completed the Democratic ticket by choosing Tim Walz as her running-mate. Here’s what his vice presidency could mean for the future of US foreign policy. Waltzing in: What Harris’s running-mate could mean for US foreign policy | ECFR
(Mark Leonard – European Council on Foreign Relations) While Democrats frame the US presidential election as an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism, Republicans are trying to position Donald Trump as a champion of the working class. To win in November, Kamala Harris’s campaign must show voters how wrong this narrative is. Harris must challenge Trump’s overtures to American workers | ECFR
(Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) The US presidential race has entered a critical phase, with the Democratic Party finalising its ticket: Kamala Harris has selected Tim Walz, the Governor of Minnesota, as her running mate. Just as Harris’s entry introduced a new dynamic to the race following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Walz’s selection as the vice-presidential candidate has introduced fresh calculations regarding Harris’s electability in November. Tim Walz: Kamala Harris’ Midwest bet (orfonline.org)
USA – Indo Pacific
(Don McLain Gill, Amit Dasgupta – The National Interest) Who will occupy the White House as the next president of the United States is always a matter of international interest. Lately, it has become an even greater global concern, especially when the world is undergoing significant challenges. Whoever leads the United States will need to decide how to defend the U.S. position within the global rules-based order. Moreover, among the many exacerbating geopolitical issues the incoming president faces, the Indo-Pacific remains the most strategically consequential, not only for U.S. national interest but also for preserving an order rooted in international law, openness, democratic principles, and freedom. The ability to enhance its position in this geographic space would be the yardstick of a presidency that is committed to Indo-Pacific security. Can the Next President Salvage the Indo-Pacific? | The National Interest
