From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Artificial Intelligence; Climate Action; Global Order; India-Russia; Israel-Qatar; Polisario Front; Russia-Poland; Sudan; Syria; The Legacy of 9/11; US
Artificial Intelligence
(Tom Wheeler, Bill Baer – Brookings) The remedies in the Department of Justice’s case against Google reflected the inadequacy of antitrust policies in the age of AI and rapid innovation. The rise of generative AI played a sizable role in the court’s decision, with the judge finding that the technology has made online search more competitive. Yet, Google still dominates the search engine market. To keep pace with technological change, antitrust policies cannot be the only tool used. Forward-looking AI competition policy is needed. – Google decision demonstrates need to overhaul competition policy for AI era | Brookings
(Brookings) Amid breathless coverage of AI’s power to disrupt, CSD Fellow Jacob Taylor asks a sharper question: How can humans design and use AI to amplify—rather than eclipse—our collective problem-solving? From the rugby scrum to the policy arena, Taylor reflects on teamwork, explores the promise of collective intelligence, and lays out the principles of vibe teaming. At the core: Human embodiment, expertise, creativity, and judgment remain indispensable in the age of AI. – Why humans matter most in the age of AI: Jacob Taylor on collaboration, vibe teaming, and the rise of collective intelligence | Brookings
Climate Action
(Bernice Lee – Chatham House) In recent months, critics have renewed attacks claiming that the United Nations climate negotiations are broken beyond repair. Bjørn Lomborg has long dismissed the COP process as a ‘circus’ of non-binding pledges. Alex Epstein says restricting fossil fuel use in developing countries is ‘immoral’. Even insiders like Christiana Figueres and Mary Robinson warn that weak targets and unmet finance promises risk eroding the legitimacy of the process. Yet the paradox of multilateral climate diplomacy is that it only works when countries fear failure enough to stretch themselves. That pressure – so evident in the run-up to 2015’s Paris Agreement, the only modern treaty adopted by nearly 200 countries – remains essential today. While deeply flawed, the UN climate process remains a foundation the world cannot afford to discard. – The UN climate process remains indispensable | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Global Order
(Samir Puri – Chatham House) Starkly contrasting visions of world order and global governance are being prominently displayed this September at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus meeting and the United Nations General Assembly. Rather than the outright victory of one vision over the other, the likely long-term outcome will be a more complex blended reality. Established structures of global governance such as the UN are struggling to adapt to a more multipolar reality. Ushering in a more stable future world order will be a generational undertaking. During that time, the risks of insecurity and further wars will simmer. – It may take a generation for a stable new world order to emerge | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
India – Russia
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) India’s increased economic cooperation with Russia since 2022, despite Western sanctions, has provided the Russian military-industrial complex with critical technological and financial support. India has helped Russia evade Western sanctions by providing Moscow with Nvidia artificial intelligence (AI) chips, octogen, and Swiss-made precision tools—all of which are used in intelligence and warfare systems. In response to India’s economic support of Russia, the United States imposed a tariff rate of 50 percent on Indian goods, but India has shown no signs of reducing economic cooperation with Russia or of seeking to push for a diplomatic settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine. – India Remains a Key Financier for Kremlin – Jamestown
Israel – Qatar
(Soufan Center) Israel launched a failed attack against Hamas’ senior leadership in Qatar’s capital, Doha, yesterday, jeopardizing the negotiations over ending the war in Gaza and angering President Trump, who released a strongly worded statement unequivocally condemning the attack. The attack has profound strategic implications because by striking a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state, Israel risks undermining the Abraham Accords and unraveling the fragile normalization framework with Arab partners. Israel’s strike on Qatar raises the uncomfortable question: if a state like Qatar, with its carefully cultivated neutrality and commitment to peacemaking, is punished for its role, who will dare step into the vacuum of mediation in the future? At its core, Israel’s attack on Qatar is not just a military action, but also a challenge to the norms of sovereignty, a threat to regional stability, and a blow to diplomacy itself at a time when it is desperately needed around the globe. – Israel’s Strike on Qatar: A Blow to Regional Mediation and Diplomacy – The Soufan Center
Polisario Front
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) Founded in 1973, the Polisario Front remains a UN-recognized secular liberation movement seeking independence from Moroccan rule. U.S. legislators are considering labeling the Sahrawi independence movement a terrorist group, fueled by allegations of ties to Iran, Hezbollah, and global jihadist networks, despite a lack of credible evidence. Accusations against the group appear to largely be intended to delegitimize the movement and reinforce Morocco’s ties with the United States and Israel. The recent move against the group in the West is based on claims of Iranian training, rocket attacks with Iranian weapons, and a Polisario presence in Syria that appears largely fabricated or exaggerated through Moroccan, Israeli, and Western media outlets. Credible sources and intelligence officials reject a meaningful connection. – Western Sahara’s Polisario Movement: Manufacturing a Threat to Global Security? – Jamestown
Russia – Poland
(Liana Fix and Erin D. Dumbacher – Council on Foreign Relations) More than a dozen Russian drones entered Polish territory overnight, with several intercepted and shot down by NATO forces. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that the alliance scrambled Polish F-16 and Dutch F-35 fighter jets in response. It also relied on German Patriot air defense systems and Italian surveillance aircraft. – Russia Tests NATO With Poland Drone Breach | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) Wars tend to escalate in one of two ways—by intention or by accident. In the moment, the difference is often blurry. On Wednesday, Poland shot down several Russian drones that had entered its territory in the eastern part of the country near its border with Ukraine and Belarus. These incursions come as Russia has launched some of its largest drone and missile strikes yet in its war on Ukraine. The aircraft may have strayed from their original flight paths in Ukraine, or they may signal a new and aggressive gambit by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Wasting no time, Poland asked to activate Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which calls for consultations among allies. – Experts react: Poland just shot down Russian drones over its territory. Is Putin ramping up his war on Europe? – Atlantic Council
Sudan
(Dame Rosalind Marsden – Chatham House) Nearly two and a half years after fighting erupted in Sudan, the brutal conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fatah Al Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), threatens to fragment the country. Yet Sudan still receives insufficient high-level diplomatic attention, global action and media coverage – despite enduring the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with 14 million people displaced. – Why ending the war in Sudan should be a higher priority for the West | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Syria
(Hadeel Oueis – The Jamestown Foundation) The Sultan Suleiman Shah Division (“Amshat”) and Hamza Division (“Hamzat”) have resisted integration into Syria’s new military hierarchy post-Assad, maintaining direct financial and logistical ties to Turkey. The groups appear to be continuing to serve Ankara’s strategic interests, deploying them as a proxy force abroad. Both militias face allegations of having committed war crimes, including ethnic cleansing and sexual violence, and have been sanctioned by the United States and European Union. Despite denials, evidence shows they participated in massacres of Alawite and Druze civilians in March and July, respectively. – The ‘Amshat’ and ‘Hamzat’: Turkey’s Militias Still Active in Syria – Jamestown
(Haid Haid – Chatham House) Syria’s transitional authorities are set to form a new legislative body between 15–20 September, the first such initiative since the fall of Bashar Al Assad’s regime. The process is not a popular vote or a general election. It instead adopts a hybrid model, with pre-selected electoral colleges voting to elect representatives for their respective districts, while other representatives are appointed directly by the president. The elections come at a crucial time for President Ahmed al-Sharaa. He is set to address the United Nations General Assembly this month as he seeks to bolster his government’s legitimacy in the wake of deadly sectarian clashes in Sweida in July. Al-Sharaa faces a range of challenges, including tensions with Kurdish groups and others over integration, a collapsing economy, mounting humanitarian and financial needs, weakened state institutions and services, and ongoing destabilizing Israeli strikes on Syria. – Syria’s parliamentary elections: A turning point or another top-down exercise? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
The Legacy of 9/11
(Bruce Hoffman and Farah Pandith – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks with military-focused campaigns that ended regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, but it failed to pursue long-term policies to counter radicalization. – The Legacy of the 9/11 Attacks: Terror Threats Have Multiplied | Council on Foreign Relations
US
(Atlantic Council) “What you’re doing right now—it’s not training.” This is what US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told US sailors and Marines on Monday aboard the USS Iwo Jima off the coast of Puerto Rico. His visit to the Caribbean came a week after US forces struck and sunk a boat allegedly involved in drug trafficking in the waters near Venezuela. While the US boat strike on September 2 has received a lot of media attention, less recognition has gone to how this operation fits within several partially overlapping US policies—toward the Maduro regime in Venezuela in particular and the Western Hemisphere more broadly. – What to know about Trump’s war on drug trafficking from Venezuela – Atlantic Council
(Matthew Savill – RUSI) The US Intelligence Community is under attack. That in itself is not news – its officers wage a daily, usually unseen struggle with adversary services from countries like Russia, China and Iran. What is new is that this adversary now sits in Washington DC: the current US administration. It knows precisely where US intelligence is vulnerable and how to wound it. – The War on American Intelligence | Royal United Services Institute
