Geostrategic magazine (11 August 2025)

Complex research (by Marco Emanuele):

I futuri che ci aspettano / The futures that await us | The Global Eye

Tempi duri per il pensiero / Hard times for thinking | The Global Eye

Distinzioni fondamentali / Fundamental distinctions | The Global Eye

L’assoluto della sicurezza lineare / Absolute linear security | The Global Eye

Disumanità / Inhumanity | The Global Eye

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.

Today’s about: Armenia-Azerbaijan-US-South Caucasus; Australia; Australia-China; Bangladesh; Belt and Road Initiative; China-Taiwan; China-US; Europe; Gaza-Israel-Middle East; G20-Global South-Sustainable Development; Haiti; India; India-US; Jammu and Kashmir-India-Pakistan; Russia-Ukraine; Southeast Asia; Syria; US; US-China; US Dollar-Stablecoins

Armenia – Azerbaijam – US – South Caucasus

(Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva – Lowy The Interpreter) Last Friday, 8 August, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a landmark peace agreement at the White House, bringing an end to decades of conflict between their countries. The signing of the “Agreement on the Establishment of Peace” was brokered by US President Donald Trump. A central element of the deal is the creation of a major transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, with the United States assisting in constructing such a transit corridor. The agreement states the route will be called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Trump expressed satisfaction with the name, adding – perhaps with uncharacteristic modesty – that he had not requested it. – Why the US, not Russia, made peace in the former Soviet South Caucasus | Lowy Institute

Australia

(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s vulnerability to fuel disruption remains one of the most significant risks to our national resilience. Gas-to-liquids technology, or GTL, offers a strategically sound and technically proven solution. Despite years of policy reviews and public investment in stockpiles and refinery subsidies, we remain overwhelmingly reliant on imported refined fuels, with shrinking domestic capacity and limited onshore reserves. This is a national weakness that threatens critical infrastructure, commercial continuity and sovereign capability. – Gas-to-liquids technology can support national resilience | The Strategist

(Sam Goldsmith – ASPI The Strategist) If Australia needs greater defence self-reliance, it needs to field road-mobile ballistic missiles. To do that, it should partner with Israel or South Korea. Those countries have such weapons in production, so they’re well placed to get some into our hands quickly and help us set up our own factories. They’re likely to keep developing ballistic missiles, so they should be open to cost-sharing technical collaboration with Australia. – Road-mobile ballistic missiles: a strong option for bolstering ADF self-reliance | The Strategist

Australia – China

(Susannah Patton – Lowy The Interpreter) In the last couple of weeks, my colleagues and I have hosted a flurry of delegations from officials and experts from Southeast Asia. Since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s July visit to China, Australia’s relationship with China has been a topic of high interest. When Australia’s relations with China were at a low ebb, many in the region saw this as contributing unhelpfully to tension, mistrust and polarisation. They were relieved when the Albanese government restored political dialogue with China after its election in 2022. But how do they see Australia’s China policy now, after Albanese’s recent visit, which saw Australia’s leader feted over six days? – Albanese’s Beijing visit sends mixed signals across Southeast Asia | Lowy Institute

Bangladesh

(Harsh V. Pant, Sohini Bose – Observer Research Foundation) A year has passed since the Sheikh Hasina government was ousted in Bangladesh. The end of a near-permanent administration, ruled by the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s iron fist, left a power vacuum with no obvious incumbent and domestic chaos erupting across the country. Yet, within a month, an interim government was nominated to power by the Anti-Discrimination Students Movement, to tide over the crisis and pave the way for the next national referendum. Under Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and his Council of Advisers, the country has since been taking a course distinctly different from the established trajectories of the ‘Hasina past’. The implications for Dhaka are significant, as the new dispensation seeks a new identity for the country that sits at odds with its past but aligns with its priorities of the moment. – A Year Later: Did Bangladesh Trade One Crisis For Another?

Belt and Road Initiative

(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) Twelve years since its inception, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was expected to pivot towards sustainability, private sector-led growth, fiscally responsible engagement, and greater transparency, in line with the course corrections pledged at the Third Belt and Road Forum (BRF) in 2023. However, the BRI’s economic engagement in the first half of 2025 suggests a regression to the old playbook. Instead of smaller, greener, and more transparent projects, Beijing’s 2025 BRI engagement is marked by a resurgence of large-scale fossil fuel deals, resource-backed infrastructure contracts, and high-value investments in extractive and industrial sectors. The rhetoric of reform remains, but the material realities on the ground point to continuity rather than transformation. This article offers a geoeconomic and strategic analysis of the BRI’s evolving engagement across economic sectors in the first half of 2025, assessing its alignment with the pledges made at the Third BRF in 2023 and the patterns observed in 2023-24. The article also places these developments in the context of the BRI’s earlier trajectory, before the Third BRF. – The BRI’s 2025 Push: A Strategic Regression

China – Taiwan

(Sriparna Pathak and Gaurav Sen – ASPI The Strategist) Let’s not get too gloomy. Despite their extensive modernisation, the Chinese armed forces still don’t have the capabilities needed for amphibious assault of Taiwan, particularly in the context of potential US intervention and Taiwan’s progressive adoption of asymmetric defence. Numerous credible evaluations find that China lacks the requisite logistics, leadership and experience to conduct a comprehensive amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait. And Taiwan is adopting at least some elements of a porcupine strategy, one using numerous small weapons that China would have trouble in countering. – Something to keep in mind: China can’t invade Taiwan yet | The Strategist

China – US

(Evan Freidin – Lowy The Interpreter) Stablecoins have opened a new field in the rivalry between China and the United States. This is a type of cryptocurrency that can maintain a fixed value by being pegged to other assets such as Bitcoin, or the US dollar, or the Chinese renminbi. In Hong Kong and Washington, bills to regulate stablecoins have recently become law. Hong Kong is attempting to reestablish a position in the global financial world by setting up an economic hub for stablecoins and other ventures in what is known as “Web3”, the next generation of the internet based on decentralisation and blockchain technology. Meanwhile the Trump administration is heavily involved with cryptocurrencies, bolstered by the support of “crypto bros” who funded President Donald Trump’s campaign. Stablecoins could have far reaching consequences for the two economies, while also reshaping global finance. – China and America in a stablecoin race that could reshape global finance | Lowy Institute

Europe 

(Adriano Tedde – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The tariff deal between the EU and US signals a major setback for Europe’s autonomy. Lack of political power in Brussels and the absence of assertive leadership in the major national capitals work against Europe’s interests, turning the continent into a satellite of a great power run by an intimidating president. – Europe: From Great Market to Satellite Continent – Australian Institute of International Affairs

Gaza – Israel – Middle East

(UN News) It’s essential to work towards a two-State solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict as the international community addresses the reality of starvation on the ground in Gaza, the Security Council heard on Sunday. Two top UN officials warned that the Israeli cabinet’s green light this week for a fresh offensive aimed at gaining total military control of Gaza City – home to around one million Palestinians – would only risk igniting “another horrific chapter” of displacement, death and destruction. Miroslav Jenča, Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas, told ambassadors that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposed plan for “defeating Hamas” and the establishment of an alternative civilian administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, risked “yet another dangerous escalation” that would destabilise the entire region. – ‘There is no military solution’ to end Israel-Palestine conflict, Security Council hears, as starvation stalks the Gaza Strip | UN News

(UN News) The UN Security Council met Sunday morning in New York following the Israeli cabinet’s decision to again expand its military operation inside the Gaza Strip and take full control of the key population centre of Gaza City. UN chief António Guterres described it earlier as a “dangerous escalation” for the two million civilians trapped in the enclave as well as the remaining Israeli hostages still held captive. – SECURITY COUNCIL LIVE: Ambassadors meet in emergency session, amid starvation in the Gaza Strip | UN News

G20 – Global South – Sustainable Development 

(Anit Mukherjee, Caroline Arkalji – Observer Research Foundation) Starting in 2022, the consecutive G20 presidencies of Indonesia followed by India, Brazil, and South Africa (IBSA) mark a pivotal moment to re-anchor the group’s priorities to those of the Global South. Together, these countries have championed a revival of the development agenda centered on accelerating progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDG), food security, digital public infrastructure, and climate action, during a time of waning multilateralism, rising inequality, and stalled progress on global goals. To translate political momentum generated by Indonesia’s presidency into durable mechanisms, the IBSA presidencies leveraged the G20 Troika and working group structures to align policy agendas, launch targeted initiatives, and institutionalize development priorities. Drawing on Leaders’ Declarations and working group outputs, this paper maps how this agenda translated into institutional outcomes. These include blended finance principles for climate mitigation and adaptation advanced by Indonesia, India’s digital public infrastructure (DPI) framework for inclusive digital transformation, the Deccan Principles on food security and Brazil’s focus on ending hunger and poverty, and addressing the challenges of inequality and sustainability that is a key area of focus for South Africa’s G20 presidency. Cross-cutting platforms such as the Global Biofuels Alliance and the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty further consolidated continuity into actionable frameworks for collaboration both within the G20 and beyond. Rather than isolated national agendas, these presidencies reflect coordinated Global South leadership that embedded development within the G20’s institutional architecture. Their collective efforts provide a model for sustained influence in multilateral governance, centered not on rhetoric but on agenda-setting, alignment of priorities, and concrete goals to stimulate innovation and action in global governance, sustainable development, digital transformation, and climate change. – Resurrecting the Development Agenda in the G20: Examining Policy Continuity across Global South Presidencies

Haiti 

(UN News) For years, low-quality seeds have been a concern in Haiti, with continual climate shocks and political insecurity adding to the existing challenges that farmers face in their attempts to grow food. Instead of having seeds which sprout reliably, farmers contend with batches which may grow only 40 or 50 per cent of the time. This not only diminishes their yield and profit but also decreases their ability to sustain their livelihoods. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is working with the Ministry of Agriculture in Haiti to change this by localising the seed economy and training members of organized seed banks known as Groupements de Production Artisanale de Semences (GPAS). – From crisis to cultivation: Haiti’s farmers build resilience one seed at a time | UN News

India

(Niranjan Sahoo, Avinnea Ghosal – Observer Research Foundation) The past 18 months have marked a major turning point in India’s fight against the prolonged Maoist insurgency. Between these months, security forces have delivered body blows to the Maoist organisation, where they have eliminated hundreds of their fighters, including several top leaders and have arrested an equal number. How the security forces in Chhattisgarh eliminated Basavaraju—the powerful General Secretary of Communist Party of India (Maoist) in Bastar—is a telling example of a massive turnaround in counterinsurgency against the Maoists. In this mission, Chhattisgarh has played a crucial role. Behind Chhattisgarh’s inspiring turnaround story is a less discussed special force: the District Reserve Guard (DRG). – Combating Maoist Insurgency: A Spotlight on Chhattisgarh’s DRG Model

(Ashutosh Kashyap, Harsh Sinha, Kush Rana, Priyanshu Rana – Observer Research Foundation) Despite India’s growing shipbuilding capabilities, its heavy dependence on imported marine engines reflects an inherent weakness in the maritime sector. Without indigenous propulsion, India’s ambitions for its blue economy remain dependent on foreign suppliers. Indigenous marine engines are not just technical assets, but the missing heartbeat of a truly ‘atmanirbhar’ Indian maritime economy. This brief argues that true self-reliance in the marine sector requires an indigenous propulsion system to safeguard national security, reduce economic outflows, and enhance technological sovereignty. It draws on lessons from the Indian Railways, ISRO, and international maritime leaders. It outlines a roadmap to developing homegrown marine engines through strategic research and development, phased manufacturing, and industry–academia collaboration. – The Missing Heartbeat: Why Atmanirbharta in India’s Shipbuilding Requires Indigenous Marine Engines

India – US

(Vani Swarupa Murali – Lowy The Interpreter) The Trump administration has announced a doubling of tariffs on India to 50 per cent, with a 21 day window for further negotiations over its trade with Russia. President Donald Trump has also ruled out further talks on a wider trade deal with India until tensions are resolved. While India’s continued purchases of Russian oil remains a stumbling block, it is far from the only one. The US insistence on accessing India’s agriculture, dairy and fishery market has been a longstanding point of discord in the trade negotiations. The United States wants to lower tariffs on farm products such as corn, soybeans, apples, cotton, almonds and ethanol, while also pushing for the entry of genetically modified farm products like maize into the Indian market. – Trump and Modi can’t ignore the trade policy power of India’s farmers | Lowy Institute

Jammu and Kashmir – India – Pakistan

(Dalbir Ahlawat – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Often described as paradise on earth and the “abode of gods,” Kashmir has long stood as a symbol of cultural fusion and peaceful co-existence, characterised by a majority-Muslim population ruled by a Hindu king, embracing a syncretic culture and mixed religious practices. However, the partition of India in 1947 placed Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in a unique geopolitical dilemma: whether to accede to India or Pakistan. – Jammu and Kashmir: Six Years After Revocation of Article 370 – Australian Institute of International Affairs

Russia – Ukraine 

(Institute for the Study of War) The United States and Ukraine’s European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the August 15 summit in Alaska.
The Kremlin is attempting to use the upcoming Alaska summit to divide the United States from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace efforts.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to signal their support for Ukraine and US-led peace efforts ahead of the Alaska summit.
Russian tank losses appear to be declining as Russian forces continue to deprioritize mechanized assaults across the frontline, indicating that the Russian command recognizes that it cannot protect vehicles from Ukrainian drone strike capabilities on the frontline and near rear.
Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on August 9 to 10, including the first drone strike against a target in the Komi Republic.
Ukrainian drone manufacturers have developed a new drone capable of intercepting higher-speed Russian drones.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War

Southeast Asia

(Irvan Tengku Harja – East Asia Forum) Southeast Asia faces a pivotal energy crossroads as it prepares its 2025 Nationally Determined Contribution climate action plans. Despite heavy reliance on coal and natural gas, the region’s abundant solar and wind resources offer a path to a cleaner future. Accelerating renewable energy deployment requires stronger policies, regional cooperation through the ASEAN Power Grid and innovative finance models. Leaders’ decisions will shape whether the region will achieve its renewable energy goals. – Southeast Asia’s green transition at a tipping point | East Asia Forum

Syria

(UN News) The UN Security Council has expressed alarm at the sharp escalation of violence in Syria’s Sweida region since mid-July, condemning attacks against civilians and calling for urgent protection and humanitarian access. Unrest began on 12 July when mutual kidnappings escalated into armed conflict between Druze groups and Bedouin tribes, drawing in Syrian security forces. The violence spiralled, with reports of extrajudicial executions, desecration of corpses and looting. Footage circulated widely on social media fanned sectarian tensions and disinformation. – Security Council voices deep concern over deadly escalation in Syria’s Sweida region | UN News

US

(Sauradeep Bag – Observer Research Foundation) The Trump administration’s approach to cryptocurrency has evolved significantly between its first and second terms, reflecting a broader shift in the role of digital assets within American economic and geopolitical strategy. What was once a peripheral issue has increasingly become central to policy discourse in Washington. Cryptocurrency now appears to be positioned not only as a financial innovation but also as a potential instrument for reinforcing the global role of the US dollar. These developments suggest a growing entwinement of crypto policy with broader macroeconomic objectives. While certain regulatory and institutional measures have been initiated, several critical questions remain unresolved. Importantly, the trajectory of US crypto policy under President Donald Trump cannot be examined in isolation. Rather, it must be understood within the wider context of the administration’s evolving economic priorities, strategic motivations, and vision for restoring American financial leadership in a changing global order. – United States’ Crypto Vision

US – China

(East Asia Forum) Slowing growth and the impact of US tariffs have made the shift to a consumption-led economy both an economic and geopolitical priority for China. Weak domestic demand is driven less by shortcomings in the social safety net, as is commonly argued, and more by the troubled real estate sector and heavy local government debt, which are weighing on household spending. If Beijing can resolve these structural issues and boost consumption, it could raise living standards, ease trade tensions and help support global growth as the US economy slows. – China’s macroeconomic strategy can contain the fallout from Trump’s tariffs | East Asia Forum

US Dollar – Stablecoins

US dollar-pegged stablecoins are emerging as strategic tools that could reinforce or reshape the US dollar’s global dominance. By enabling US dollar-linked transactions outside traditional financial systems, stablecoins extend the dollar’s reach but also challenge US regulatory control. While the Donald Trump administration aims to harness US dollar-pegged stablecoins through legislation to bolster monetary influence, US legislation will not stop unregulated tokens from continuing to circulate globally. The global response to stablecoins is varied — the European Union is working to protect monetary sovereignty, while Singapore and Hong Kong support regulated adoption. In an increasingly fragmented global financial system, stablecoins could help to sustain US dollar dominance. – Can stablecoins extend US dollar dominance? | East Asia Forum

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