From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia; China; China-Multilateral Cooperation-WTO; Europe-Russia-Ukraine-NATO; Indo-Pacific; Kazakhstan; Libya; Myanmar; NATO; Russia-Poland; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); US; US-China; US-NATO-Europe
Australia
(Isabelle Bond – The Strategist) Australia’s National Intelligence Community could substantially enhance Australia’s climate security response. It could do so by applying its surveillance resources to the task. The 2024 Independent Intelligence Review lists transnational challenges—which includes climate change—as one of the ‘major trends shaping global affairs’. Despite noting that ‘climate change is a priority for intelligence agencies and is likely to require more [intelligence] collection’, the report doesn’t contain a chapter on climate, nor does it make any recommendations for addressing the challenge. Meanwhile, technology, as one of the other major trends listed, is given an entire chapter and 11 recommendations to ensure Australia is adequately ‘positioned for the future’. – Harnessing NIC surveillance for better climate security outcomes | The Strategist
(Peter Court – The Strategist) Australia’s ports may be busy, but we have no way of ensuring that ships will keep coming to them in wartime. In an age of contested supply chains, strategic competition and rising instability, this absence of Australian shipping capacity poses one of the country’s most underappreciated national security risks. The problem is blunt and unresolved. Australia lacks an Australian-controlled, internationally trading merchant shipping fleet. This means we have no national capability to move essential fuel, food, medical supplies or military stores. In a crisis—be it conflict, global logistics breakdown, fuel disruption or natural disaster—we rely entirely on foreign-flagged vessels to move crucial imports and exports. – Australia adrift. We must restore our merchant shipping fleet | The Strategist
China
(Mohd. Yunus – The Interpreter) There is no denying that China is aggressively branding itself as the world’s environmental champion. From the massive “Three-North Shelterbelt“ reforestation to the world’s biggest solar photovoltaic power farms on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China is offering an impressive package of large-scale domestic afforestation, clean energy development, and ambitious net-zero ambitions. But just beyond its shores, another – and far darker – story is unfolding. China’s outsized global environmental footprint is casting a lengthy shadow over its green reputation, one that has the potential to unravel hard-won global progress in biodiversity conservation and climate targets. – Beijing’s green mirage: How China drives environmental destruction abroad while claiming climate leadership at home | Lowy Institute
China – Multilateral Cooperation – WTO
(Weihuan Zhou, Victor Crochet, Henry Gao – East Asia Forum) Overcapacity in Chinese industries like steel, EVs and solar panels has become a flashpoint in global trade, especially in US–China tensions. While often framed as unfair trade practices due to subsidies and low-priced exports, these concerns reflect deeper strategic fears about China’s rise in key sectors. Despite high tariffs and anti-circumvention measures, China remains a dominant exporter and is shifting excess production towards domestic consumption. Lasting solutions require multilateral cooperation and WTO reform to restore trade stability. – Overcoming the geopolitics of overcapacity through cooperation | East Asia Forum
Europe – Russia – Ukraine – NATO
(Andrius Kubilius, Mike Higgins – Chatham House) Interview: The EU’s first Commissioner for Defence discusses the urgency of learning from Ukraine’s military innovations and the ‘challenge’ of working with Europe’s defence industry. – Andrius Kubilius: NATO states need millions of drones for the day Russia might attack | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Indo – Pacific
(Vincent So – The Interpreter) The dominant strategic narrative presents the Indo-Pacific in binaries: democracies versus autocracies, the US-led order versus China’s challenge, AUKUS versus the PLA Navy. But this framing is not shared by many of the countries at the heart of the region. A quieter, older tradition is re-emerging, neither anti-Western nor pro-China, but determinedly neutral. Neutrality is returning not as a moral evasion, but as a strategic operating system: adaptive, transactional, and attuned to the realities of geography, power asymmetry, and domestic constraint. From Indonesia and India to Vietnam and the Pacific Islands, neutrality is increasingly the rule, not the exception. The question for Australia and its allies is whether they can work with this world, or only in opposition to it. – The logic of neutrality in the Indo-Pacific | Lowy Institute
Kazakhstan
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Kazakhstan is expanding rail cargo capacity on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which uses Kazakhstan to bypass Russian infrastructure between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Europe. Major investments, including a second Dostyk-Moiynty rail track and over 1,300 miles of new lines, support Kazakhstan’s growing role in PRC-Europe trade routes. Enhanced rail investments are boosting Kazakhstan’s exports, particularly grain, to the PRC and beyond, reflecting Kazakhstan’s broader “multi-vector” foreign policy, which aims to increase Kazakhstan’s prosperity and influence through trade. – Kazakhstan Increases Railway Capacity Along Trans-Caspian International Transport Route – Jamestown
Libya
(Soufan Center) Armed clashes among forces of the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli benefit the Tobruk-based eastern administration dominated by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army. Russia and Türkiye are taking advantage of a divided and unstable Libya to improve their geostrategic positions in Africa and the Mediterranean. Russia is cementing its ties to Haftar with major weapons deliveries and deployments, whereas Türkiye is making inroads to Tobruk through the use of soft power. Türkiye’s ties to all major Libyan factions position Ankara to potentially broker unity in the country, after years of failed efforts by U.N. mediators. – Geopolitical Competition Escalates in an Unstable Libya – The Soufan Center
Myanmar
(Aung Tun – East Asia Forum) Myanmar’s youth have been leading anti-military resistance efforts following the February 2021 coup. A political solution is necessary to Myanmar’s crisis, and the youth must play a central role in this process. The youth advocate for a federal democratic future, addressing past injustices and promoting social equity. Their inclusion in political dialogues and peace processes is vital to achieving meaningful change and guiding Myanmar towards a sustainable future. – No youth, no future for Myanmar | East Asia Forum
NATO
(Patrick Tucker – Defense One) American reticence and Russian aggression have created a sense of urgency for the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague, where leaders plan to redouble efforts toward digital transformation and multi-domain operations. That’s according to Philippe Lavigne, a retired French general who served as former chief of staff of the French Air and Space Force and a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander for transformation. Defense One sat down with Lavigne as part of a series of podcasts ahead of the 2025 Globsec Forum, taking place in Prague from June 12 to 14. – Move faster, share things: A former NATO transformation chief previews the summit – Defense One
Russia – Poland
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility.
Kremlin propaganda is beginning to shift focus from Ukraine to Poland as an adversary, anticipating a future ceasefire in Ukraine and seeking to preserve internal fear of an external enemy through militaristic rhetoric. Poland’s alignment with Western defense initiatives is increasingly framed by Moscow as aggressive and conspiratorial, with propaganda narratives suggesting Warsaw is becoming the West’s frontline proxy in a broader anti-Russian campaign. – Kremlin Increases Anti-Poland Propaganda – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine’s June 1 strike on four Russian airbases exposed severe vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defenses, prompting patriotic outcries and demands for retaliation despite censorship and subdued official responses. Russia’s retaliatory strike on June 6, while labeled as retribution, matched previous attack intensities and was largely neutralized by Ukrainian defenses. Some Russian pundits admit that Russia does not have that many strong options for punishing Ukraine. Moscow’s restrained response may be influenced by fears of Western escalation, potential new sanctions, and ongoing diplomatic calculations involving the upcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Group of Seven (G7) summits. – Russian Retribution For Daring Ukrainian Strike is Postponed, Perhaps Indefinitely – Jamestown
US
(April A. Herlevi – The Interpreter) The fate of the subsea environment and the seabed are on the brink of a fundamental shift. Driven by the Trump administration’s recent sweeping changes to US national security and foreign and domestic policy, the increasing likelihood of seabed resource extraction is prompting serious commercial interest. Several of the intersecting policies mean the ocean floor has the potential to become more congested, testing international law and efforts to manage the seabed for the “benefit of mankind”. In the past four months, the Trump administration has published more than 130 executive orders. Three categories of emerging policy – maritime strategy, energy, and critical minerals – are likely to impact the seabed. Deep-sea mining and exploration, for example, combined with offshore energy projects, may lead to conflicts and what is known as “maritime spatial squeeze”. On the upside, shipbuilding plans could enhance subsea cable resilience if repair and maintenance ships and their associated workforce are part of the strategy. – What lies beneath: Trump and the security of subsea cables | Lowy Institute
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump’s travel ban clamping down on travelers from nineteen countries took effect on Monday, setting up potential confrontations at airports and in courtrooms across the country. Trump sent shockwaves across the globe last week when he signed a sweeping travel ban, citing national security concerns. The ban bars citizens from twelve countries and imposes restrictions on nationals from seven others. The move marks a dramatic escalation in Trump’s immigration crackdown, reviving a hardline tactic used during his first term that caused chaos at airports and drew legal challenges. This ban is broader in scope, targeting more countries, and is also expected to face lawsuits. – A Guide to the Countries on Trump’s 2025 Travel Ban List | Council on Foreign Relations
US – China
(David Lubin – Chatham House) ‘Bombard the headquarters!’ That was the slogan that helped launch China’s Cultural Revolution in 1966 – and it offers a glimpse into what that revolution actually was: an implicit contract between Mao Zedong, recently sidelined from day-to-day leadership, and his grassroots supporters – mostly in the form of young Red Guards – to burn down everything in between them and rebuild the country from its ashes. So, when the autocratically minded Donald Trump promises his own grassroots base to ‘demolish the deep state’, it is difficult not to hear echoes of Chinese politics in the 1960s. Mao’s attack on ‘rightism’ was rooted in a complaint that the Chinese Communist Party’s senior leaders, Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping, were ‘suppressing alternative viewpoints’. Sixty years later, Trump’s attack on ‘wokeism’ has tried to force US universities to make room for ‘viewpoint diversity’ – although in both cases, the only viewpoints being championed are those of the revolutionaries themselves. But it’s not just the China of 60 years ago that Trump is channelling. His basic economic goal, in broad terms, is to use aggressive policy interventions to boost US factory production, substitute imports, promote exports and move towards a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The goal, in other words, is to take the US economy and make it, well, more like China’s. – If Trump wants an economy like China’s, he’ll need a revolution | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – NATO – Europe
(Andrew Dorman – Chatham House) President Trump’s ambivalence about the alliance’s all-important Article 5 may increase European defence budgets, but could have unintended consequences at home, warns Andrew Dorman. – NATO summit spending promises may cost America dear | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
