From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : African Union, Australia, Caspian Sea Region-European Union, Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, India-US, Indonesia, Myanmar-ASEAN, New Zealand, Turkiye, Ukraine, US, US-China, US-Gaza, US-UN, Yemen, Climate Action, Geostrategies
African Union
(Crisis Group) African heads of state gather for their annual summit on 15-16 February, with several hot wars raging on the continent while traditional peacemaking mechanisms falter. – Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025 | Crisis Group
Australia
(Michael Pezzullo – ASPI The Strategist) In the next six months there is a greater than 50 per cent chance of a terrorist attack being planned and possibly carried out in Australia. The Director-General of Security told us so on August 5, 2024, when the terrorist threat level was raised to “probable”. The Jewish Australian community has every right to be gravely concerned that Jewish people and places, such as synagogues, might be the targets of such an attack. That this is even a possibility should shock all Australians. – Stopping anti-Semitic terrorism in Australia | The Strategist
Caspian Sea Region – European Union
(IFRI) This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU). – The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations | Ifri
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(Cecily Brewer, Thomas P. Sheehy – United States Institute of Peace) On January 27, Rwandan-backed rebels known as M23 captured Goma, the largest city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite the presence of U.N. peacekeeping force, defense forces from other African countries, local militias, and European mercenaries hired to block its advance. Nearly 3,000 people were killed in M23’s advance into Goma, including the provincial military governor. Roughly 500,000 people fled their homes, adding to the more than two million people displaced by the long-standing conflict. – A DRC-Rwanda Truce is Key for African and U.S. Interests — Here’s How to Get There | United States Institute of Peace
India
(Kavya Wadhwa – Observer Research Foundation) India’s nuclear power industry is about to undergo a radical change as the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) made a bold and historic move by issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP) to invite private players into the development of small reactors and to get a skin in the upcoming nuclear projects, marking a watershed moment in India’s approach to the nuclear sector. NPCIL can assist these industry pioneers by sharing expertise and technology with regulatory permissions. This collaboration will help increase efficiency, cost reduction, and innovation in the design, construction, and management of nuclear facilities. In return, the industries will benefit from the net electricity output for their captive use or resale, subject to the Department of Atomic Energy’s (DAE) tariff regulations. This is a momentous step for the industry because of the dual implications of the use cases. The atomic energy portfolio has always been given special attention at the South Block and other national political corridors and has always been protected from private participants. This unprecedented move strengthens India’s commitment to clean and sustainable power generation and is a major step in increasing private sector involvement in nuclear energy. – Public-private partnerships and the Indian nuclear frontier: A new era of energy security
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) On 3 June 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took oath for the third consecutive term, with leaders from South Asian neighbours, such as the prime ministers of Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan and the presidents of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, in attendance at the inaugural ceremony. Extending invitations to these leaders for the third consecutive term indicated commitment to the principle of ‘Neighbourhood First’—a crucial aspect of Modi’s foreign policy. The concept of ‘Neighbourhood First’ emerged in 2008 but received a push only in 2014, under Modi. The policy aims to foster strong and friendly relations with neighbours on a consultative, outcome-oriented, and non-reciprocal basis. The policy focuses on infrastructure improvement, development cooperation, and enhancing physical, digital, economic, trade, and people-to-people connectivity with neighbours. – A Decade of ‘Neighbourhood First’: Perspectives from South Asia
India – US
(Ashok Sajjanhar – Vivekananda International Foundation) India-US relations have been in a sweet spot since the last twenty-five years starting with the visit of US President Bill Clinton to India in March, 2000. There has been a bipartisan consensus in both India and the US regarding stronger and more dynamic ties between the two nations. There was considerable anxiety in most countries in the world at the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. This increased several fold looking at the flurry of Executive Orders Trump signed and the aggressive statements made by him immediately after his inauguration on domestic and foreign policy issues including illegal migration, tariffs, China, Canada, Mexico, Panama Canal, Greenland etc. The reason for global apprehension is because Trump is known to be unpredictable. In his First Term, Trump was seen to be unsure primarily because his election in 2016 came as a shock, not only to the world but to himself also. – India-US Ties in Trump 2.0: On a ‘’Trusted Partnership’’ Trajectory | Vivekananda International Foundation
Indonesia
(Karl Gading Sayudha – ASPI The Strategist) Indonesia isn’t doing enough in acquiring advanced naval and air systems. Too much money and focus are still being spent on the army, the traditionally dominant service—yet the country hardly faces a risk of a ground war. The greater concern would be a threat from China, which can only come by sea and air. This is seen in Beijing’s increasing provocations against its neighbours, particularly Taiwan and the Philippines. – Air and maritime defence, not ground combat, should be Indonesia’s priorities | The Strategist
Myanmar – ASEAN
(Aniello Iannone – Lowy The Interpreter) Myanmar remains the scene of an unending crisis. More than 6000 civilians killed, 20,000 political prisoners, and more than 3 million internally displaced persons represent the human cost of a war waged by the military junta against its own people in the four years since the February 2021 coup d’état. But the regional effects are also being felt as a consequence of ASEAN’s inertia, an organisation paralysed by structural constraints and a diplomatic culture that prioritises stability over justice, where the principle of non-interference has become a shield for autocrats. – Escaping the ASEAN paralysis on Myanmar | Lowy Institute
New Zealand
(Xiaoming Huang – East Asia Forum) New Zealand’s foreign policy in 2024 reflected a strategic shift towards deepening security alliances with traditional allies like Australia and the United States. Discussions of New Zealand’s potential involvement in AUKUS and strengthening defence cooperation indicate New Zealand’s increased interest in keeping its friends close amid a volatile security environment. The challenge for the National Party-led coalition government is balancing this pivot with New Zealand’s historical commitment to independent foreign policy. While defence dominated headlines, the government spent 2024 making futile efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China. While New Zealand is attempting to diversify trade through engagements with India and ASEAN, reliance on China’s manufacturing exports remains a significant constraint. – New Zealand must balance alliances with autonomy | East Asia Forum
Turkiye
(Mahmoud Allouch – Emirates Policy Center) The fall of Assad’s regime marks the most significant geopolitical shift in Turkiye’s periphery since the fall of Saddam Hussein. This transformation opens the door for Ankara to establish a new political system in Damascus and address key strategic concerns, including the Kurdish self-autonomy project, the Syrian refugee crisis and the demarcation of maritime borders. Turkiye has entered a new phase following Erdogan’s historic visit to Baghdad and the launch of the regional Development Road project. However, shifts in Syria might impact this relationship, particularly as Iran may seek to expand its influence in Iraq to compensate for its losses in Syria. Ankara faces the challenge of managing Israel’s assertive regional posture following the decline of Iran’s influence. Erdogan perceives this as a potential strategic threat. The ongoing Turkish-Israeli tensions – exacerbated by the war in Gaza – have also constrained Ankara’s ability to strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue. A conviction prevails in Ankara that relations with the Trump administration would be more favorable than those under Biden. This conviction is based on Erdogan’s previous close working relationship with Trump and the latter’s inclination to withdraw US forces from Syria. In 2025, Turkiye’s strategic priorities will revolve around three key objectives: ensuring the success of Syria’s political transition and establishing a stable, friendly government in Damascus; achieving a breakthrough in the Kurdish issue that aligns with Ankara’s interests; and reshaping relations with Washington in light of Trump’s return to the White House. – Emirates Policy Center | Turkiye in a Changing Geopolitical Environment: What Awaits Ankara in 2025?
Ukraine
(Alexander Bollfrass – IISS) Even before the full-scale Russian invasion of 2022, leading Ukrainian government officials had declared that the only mechanisms for security from Russia were NATO membership or nuclear-weapons possession. As its position on the battlefield deteriorates, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated the call in October 2024: ‘Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance’, indicating that protection under the Alliance’s Article 5 remains the preferred path. Even as the official Ukrainian position has walked back these comments, and should NATO membership remain elusive, how realistic would an independent Ukrainian nuclear capability be? – Are nuclear weapons an option for Ukraine?
US
(East Asia Forum) President Trump’s tariffs pose a major threat to the global economy and risk a repeat of the damaging cycle of retaliation that made the Smoot-Hawley tariffs deepen the Great Depression in the 1930s. Rejecting retaliatory tariffs makes more economic sense and a better form of retaliation would be to review the terms of intellectual property protections for US firms. – Don’t play Trump’s game on trade | East Asia Forum
(The Soufan Center) In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, the United States imposed steep tariffs on its North American neighbors, sparking a trade war with Canada and Mexico over the weekend. After a slew of retaliatory tariffs were announced, President Trump suspended the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days, following negotiations in which both countries agreed to enhance border security measures. Trade tensions with the U.S. extend beyond just its North American allies to the European Union and China, with the latter initiating retaliatory tariffs on American goods, as well as launching an antitrust investigation into Google. The escalation of trade tensions under Trump’s leadership underscores a broader shift toward economic nationalism in the U.S. that risks alienating key allies and provoking adversaries in ways that could have lasting global repercussions. – From Toronto to Beijing: The Expanding Frontlines of Trump’s Trade War – The Soufan Center
(Alexandre Dayant – Lowy The Interpreter) The US aid freeze won’t break the Pacific, but it will create unnecessary disruptions. For Southeast Asia, the consequences are mixed, likely to hit Myanmar and Cambodia hardest, as well as those sectors more broadly across the region where US aid plays an important role, especially in support for civil society. President Donald Trump’s pause on US foreign assistance has sent shockwaves through the global development community. Legal challenges are afoot amid fears of deeper cuts on the way given Trump’s allegation that the US Aid Agency, USAID, was “run by a bunch of radical lunatics”. – Aid on ice: How Trump’s freeze hurts the Pacific and Southeast Asia | Lowy Institute
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has led U.S. development and humanitarian efforts around the world since 1961. It has taken the lead in coordinating effective responses to a number of humanitarian emergencies and strengthened development efforts abroad that proponents say have underpinned U.S. national security and cultivated goodwill toward the United States. – What Is USAID and Why Is It at Risk? | Council on Foreign Relations
US – China
(Sun Chenghao, Chen Siyao – Brookings) The sudden influx of American users onto RedNote (Xiaohongshu), now dubbed the “TikTok refugees,” represents far more than a mere platform migration. Triggered by the impending TikTok ban in the United States, this phenomenon encapsulates a broader narrative: the intersection of technological governance, cultural exchange, and digital sovereignty in an increasingly fragmented online landscape. How do Chinese observers interpret the motivations behind America’s TikTok ban saga? What strategic scenarios are emerging in China regarding TikTok’s future trajectory? How do these narratives shape and reflect China’s views of the complex China-U.S. relations? Examining these questions offers critical insights into the shifting dynamics of global technological competition and the evolving contours of bilateral relations in a contested digital age. – What does the TikTok saga reveal about China-US relations?
(Robert Maxim, Mark Muro, and Shriya Methkupally – Brookings) Most of the discussion around President Donald Trump’s volley of tariff threats this week has centered on their potential impact on consumer prices and inflation. While price increases are a real concern, another impact involves the fact that regional economies (and the local jobs there) are frequently caught in the middle of trade disputes, though not equally. For now, the most significant disruptions to U.S. communities are on pause, given the last-minute suspension of Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. However, with Trump standing by his threat to impose 10% tariffs on imports from China, and China sticking with its threat of counter-tariffs commencing on Monday, the nation may well be heading toward a new reminder of the unfortunate ways local communities can suffer collateral damage from international faceoffs. – China’s retaliatory tariffs will hurt Trump-voting counties most
US – Gaza
(Crisis Group) Crisis Group experts Amjad Iraqi, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher talk about President Donald Trump’s proposal to move Palestinians out of Gaza and for the U.S. to take over. – Trump’s Gaza Plan | Crisis Group
(Navdeep Suri – Observer Research Foundation) At first, the comments from US President Donald Trump sounded like a cross between random musings and disjointed ramblings. His desire to buy Greenland from the Danes, annex Canada as a great 51st state of America, reclaim the Panama Canal and rename the Gulf of Mexico, and his proclivity to deploy tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy weren’t just bizarre. They harked back to the heyday of imperialism in the 19th century, to a time when foreign territories could be conquered, bought or sold without any reference to the local inhabitants and mercantile economics ruled the roost. The reactions from shocked friends and neighbours about the hostile acquisition bids came in fast and furious, while friendly souls in Washington DC tried to figure out which part of which comment could possibly be interpreted as Version 2.0 of Trump’s The Art of the Deal. ‘Bizarre’ has become the new byword in Washington. The President’s February 4 remarks on Gaza as he stood alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House were par for the course. In the formal setting of a White House joint press briefing and while reading from a written text, Trump declared, “The US will take over the Gaza Strip and we’ll do a job with it, too … we’ll own it and be responsible…. We’re going to take over that piece, and we’re going to develop it.” – Trump stirs the Gaza pot
(Ahmed Aboudouh – Chatham House) President Donald Trump has started a new reality in the Middle East, regardless of what comes next. Did he also torpedo the hostage deal in Gaza? Possibly. What other outcome should people expect if proposed US policy on the territory has led to warnings against ethnic cleansing by the UN Secretary General and would effectively end the US commitment to the two-state solution? Israel’s military has already been ordered to prepare plans to allow Palestinians to exit Gaza. That follows the US president saying the US would take over the Gaza Strip and ‘do a job with it too’. – Negotiating tactic or not, Trump’s Gaza plan has already done irreparable damage | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Natan Sachs – Brookings) The first thing that must be said about President Donald Trump’s proposal regarding Gaza is that forcibly removing 2 million people is immoral and illegal. The plan also ignores the fundamental drivers of Palestinian politics. Gazans and Palestinians more broadly—much like Israelis—have shown for over the better part of a century that the pursuit of a better life for individuals is not the only motivation governing their choices. Palestinians are highly motivated by their national cause, as evidenced by all they’ve sacrificed for it individually over many decades. Viewed from the outside, it is easy to underestimate the power of nationalism in any setting—Palestinian, Israeli, and other. Steadfastness on the land in the face of adversity—“sumud”—is a foundational Palestinian value, especially with the memory of 1948 still alive in people’s minds. Palestinian political opposition to the plan is and will continue to be vehement. – America’s annexation of Gaza won’t happen
US – UN
(Richard Gowan – Crisis Group) The Trump administration continues to decouple the United States from parts of the United Nations system, and it is not clear when this process will end. Having declared the U.S. would quit the Paris climate change agreement and the World Health Organization on his first day in office, Trump this week announced in an executive order that the U.S. would no longer fund the Geneva-based Human Rights Council and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA, the agency that assists Palestinian refugees. Neither move was a great surprise: Trump pulled out of the Human Rights Council during his first term, and the Biden administration froze funding to UNRWA last year over allegations some staff were tied to Hamas. – The Trump Administration’s Approach Could Make or Break U.N. Reform | Crisis Group
Yemen
(April Longley Alley, Ph.D. – United States Institute of Peace) The Trump administration has begun the process of redesignating Yemen’s Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) over the groups’ firing at U.S. warships; violently overthrowing Yemen’s internationally recognized government; launching attacks against civilian infrastructure in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and recently Israel; and attacking commercial shipping. After Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, the Houthis fired missiles and drones at Israel and significantly disrupted commercial shipping by attacking ships in the Red Sea. Also known as Ansar Allah, the Iran-backed group says these attacks are done in solidarity with Hamas. They have held fire since the Gaza truce took hold on January 19. – What the Houthis’ Foreign Terrorist Designation Could Mean for Yemen | United States Institute of Peace
Climate Action
(Aaditya Tangri – Observer Research Foundation) The top cities facing extreme climate risks in the Global South are New Delhi, Manila, Jakarta, Lagos, Mexico City, Beijing, and Shanghai. Putting aside the climate justice hat, it is reasonable to expect that those in the Global North may not perceive the importance of this news as urgent. It is more concerning to see climate change-induced calamities hit much closer to home, with an economic impact of well over 10 billion euros, Toronto with an economic impact of over US$1 billion and Florida, where the economic loss is expected to be a staggering US$85 billion. – How funding climate adaptation in the Global South is critical to economies of the Global North?
Geostrategies
(Melanie Pill – Lowy The Interpreter) Small island countries have repeatedly shown exceptional leadership in matters relating to climate change, calling out laggards failing to adhere to their pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and standing strong in international negotiations. In what may prove one of the most consequential actions, Vanuatu successfully led a coalition of 132 nations requesting the International Court of Justice deliver a non-binding advisory opinion to clarify precisely what obligations countries have to protect people and the environment from catastrophic consequences of climate change. The request came via the UN General Assembly, essentially asking for a judgement on efforts to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, resulting mainly from fossil fuel usage. – The world court decision that might decide the future of our planet | Lowy Institute
(Shiro Armstrong, Tom Westland – East Asia Forum) Donald Trump’s import tariffs on Mexico and Canada will push the United States back to protectionism not seen since WW2. A more effective response would be to reassess intellectual property rules that disproportionately benefit US pharmaceutical and tech giants at the expense of global consumers while working collectively with Asia and Europe to reinforce the rules-based economic system. – Trump’s trade madness risks global depression if retaliation’s not measured | East Asia Forum
