Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Cambodia
(Temjenmeren Ao – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet on 5 August 2024 launched the mega connectivity project, the Funan-Techno Canal. At the ground-breaking ceremony for the construction of the US$ 1.7 billion Funan-Techno Canal, Manet stated that the project will help Cambodia strengthen its political independence in terms of waterway transport. This will be Cambodia’s first historical mega transport project which will provide a new link from the Mekong River and give access to the sea through the Gulf of Thailand. As per the blueprint, the 100 meters wide and of 5.4 meters deep canal would allow for two shipping lanes with vessels carrying up to 3,000 deadweight tonnages. For seamless connectivity, the initiative would also include building of other transport-related infrastructure such as dams and bridges. Cambodia’s Funan-Techno Canal Project and Regional Concerns | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
China – European Union
(Miguel Otero Iglesias – Elcano Royal Institute) As the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets in Beijing, China is facing an economic slowdown, with the potential of triggering a deflationary spiral. This is due to ‘too much state and too little market’, which supresses the ‘animal spirits’ and curbs internal consumption. However, there is a paradox here. The more the West tries to contain China, the more the Government increases its control over the economy and the more this leads to additional investment in industrial manufacturing. This in turn creates more overcapacity and enhances the tensions with the West. The current electric vehicle (EV) trade dispute is a good example of this, which also shows that while the US is trying to decouple from China by means of prohibitive tariffs, the EU is still in a de-risking mode involving graduated tariffs. The bloc is aware that if it is to meet its zero-emissions targets it needs to rely on (cheap) Chinese green technology, not least to spur competition among car manufacturers. Many European countries are also keen on attracting Chinese EV production to their shores. But there are still many risks. Will China generate local jobs? Will the EU and China agree on a joint data governance regime? And if Europe remains open to Chinese industrial manufacturing, will China open up its services sectors? Ultimately, China is at bay, but Europe cannot be its main lifeline. China at bay and the EU to the rescue? Not quite… – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
Emerging Technologies
(Hongseok Choi – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) I’m subscribed to three of the major generative AI services, ChatGPT (OpenAI), Claude (Anthropic), and Gemini (Google). When I don’t get what I want with ChatGPT, I switch to Claude. When Claude frustrates me after a good deal of helpful (and impressive) answers, I switch to Gemini. When Gemini does its share, I switch back to ChatGPT. Usually I ultimately get what I want in this cycle, but when I don’t and when I figure out a solution myself, the outcome is satisfactory all the same: I’m not entirely dumber than these AIs yet. But probably not for long. The speed at which generative AI is progressing is simply astounding. As you may remember, ChatGPT was released in November 2022, only 1 year and 8 months ago. It was initially based on GPT-3.5 (released previously in March 2022) and, via GPT-4 (March 2023), is now using GPT-4o (May 2024). After GPT-3, OpenAI is not disclosing technical details, but GPT-4 is estimated to have 1.76 trillion parameters. Compare this number with GPT-3.5’s 175 billion and GPT-1’s (June 2018) 117 million. Navigating the AI Revolution | KIEP Opinions | Publications : Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Global Governance
(Alex Krasodomski – Chatham House) The spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation on digital platforms has stoked the violence that has affected the UK for the past week. For many in the government (and beyond), at the centre of the blame is X – formerly Twitter – and its owner Elon Musk, who has entered into a personal row with Prime Minister Keir Starmer over the disorder. UK policymakers say they have warned technology companies ‘not to peddle the harm of those who seek to damage and divide our society.’ But as those same policymakers return to the same platforms to publicize those very warnings, and their cabinet colleagues use them to thank local communities and law enforcement, it is increasingly apparent: technologies like X are vital pieces of social, political and cultural infrastructure, and the outsourcing of that infrastructure comes at a high price. The UK riots force Western democracies to confront their reliance on technology giants | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Global Risks
(Lakshmy Ramakrishnan – Observer Research Foundation) India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval and the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, recently reviewed potential areas of cooperation under the Initiative on Critical Emerging Technologies (iCET). Biotechnology was identified as a key area of cooperation that poses significant economic potential and requires attention from a security perspective. Presently, the initiative has not indicated any specific agenda on areas of bilateral cooperation in biotechnology, necessitating the need for an understanding of the current status of cooperation on biosecurity and biosafety, its significance, and a future roadmap for deliberation. Biosecurity and biosafety: A pressing agenda for the iCET (orfonline.org)
India
(Ramanath Jha – Observer Research Foundation) Indian cities are incessantly building more and more structures to accommodate more people and more activities. The range of private and public urban construction projects is large—new construction, demolition of old structures, re-modelling of old buildings and the construction of taller buildings than before. These comprise residential and commercial complexes, schools, hospitals, markets, roads, bridges, flyovers, tunnels, transportation services such as metros and monorail, footbridges, toilets, drainage works, water and sewerage work, libraries, museums, theatres, and swimming pools, to name a few. Managing construction and demolition waste in cities (orfonline.org)
Indonesia
(David Camroux, Mahrus Harnadi – East Asia Forum) The 2024 Indonesian presidential election saw candidates pay little attention to ASEAN or the Indo-Pacific, indicating their decreasing role in the country’s foreign policy. With future president Prabowo Subianto seeming set to deprioritise ASEAN, the focus appears to be shifting towards bilateral and minilateral arrangements. Indonesia is increasingly looking beyond its backyard to promote itself as an internationally-focused middle-income country. Prabowo’s pivot away from ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(Ebtesam al-Ketbi – Emirates Policy Center) In addition to its significant role in alleviating the humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war, the UAE has been playing a pivotal role in international and regional efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and shape the “day after” scenario through both multilateral and bilateral diplomacy. The UAE’s vision for the day-after scenario encompasses the formation of a “temporary international mission” for Gaza with three core objectives: effectively addressing the humanitarian crisis, establishing law and order and laying the groundwork for a competent government that can facilitate the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip under a single legitimate Palestinian authority. The UAE’s vision for the future of the Gaza Strip after the war has positive features. It is the first practical proposal from an Arab party that takes into account the fundamental interests of all key stakeholders – Palestinian, Arab, Israeli and American – and involves all these parties in the “day after” arrangements. Regardless of the positions or perceptions of various actors regarding the day after, any formula that the UAE supports and engages in should adhere to basic principles, including the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, ensuring Palestinian self-governance in the Gaza Strip and establishing a clear political path leading to a two-state solution. Emirates Policy Center | The UAE and ‘The Day After’ in Gaza: The Road to Sustainable Regional Peace (epc.ae)
(Amb D P Srivastava – Vivekananda International Foundation) Since the missile exchange between Israel and Iran in April last, the tensions in the region had subsided though the war in Gaza was simmering. There was some hope that Israel and Hamas were nearing a deal on hostage release and ceasefire. The targeted assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in the early hours of 31st July has again revived fears of a wider conflagration in the Middle East. Haniyeh was visiting Tehran to take part in the inauguration of President Pezeshkian. The assassination took place within 14 hours of the killing of Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah’s Deputy Commander in Beirut by an Israeli missile strike. There was an earlier missile attack on Majdal Shams in occupied Golan on 27th July in which 12 Druze children lost their lives. Israel acknowledged its involvement in Shukr’s killing, which was a retaliation against the killing of 12 Druze children. It has neither confirmed nor denied its role in Haniyeh’s assassination. Iran and Hamas leaders have blamed Israel and vowed revenge. Assassination of Hamas Leader Haniyeh in Tehran | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Three counterterrorism experts and former officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Iran and its proxies. Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide | The Washington Institute
(Soner Cagaptay – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Even with U.S. intercession, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran could harden Ankara’s stance against Israel and spur a fatal cycle of diplomatic and economic retaliation. Israel-Turkey Relations Nearing a Rupture | The Washington Institute
(Farzin Nadimi – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent. Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder | The Washington Institute
(Jon B. Alterman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) For most of the last month, reports have circulated that a Gaza ceasefire is close. The war has imposed difficult costs on Israel and unleashed destruction on Gaza. Even more urgently, the suffering of the hostages that Hamas holds and the hunger and disease that threatens almost all Palestinians argue for a swift end to hostilities in order to preserve human lives. Negotiators believe that they have arrived at bridgeable positions, and the principal mediators—the United States, Qatar, and Egypt—have called for the parties to gather on Thursday, August 15, to reach an agreement. Do Leaders Want Gaza Negotiations to Succeed? (csis.org)
(Jeffrey Feltman – Brookings) A momentous guessing game of three questions has entered its second week. When and how will Hezbollah and Iran retaliate for the assassinations of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30 and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31? How will Israel respond to what will presumably be a coordinated Hezbollah-Iranian attack? Most alarming, will these actions tip the Middle East into the full-scale regional war feared ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack and the start of the massive Israeli military campaign in Gaza? Echoes of 2006: Israel, Hezbollah, and the potential for regional war | Brookings
Spain
(Daniel Fiott – Elcano Royal Institute) Since 2021 there have been three calls of proposals under the European Defence Fund (EDF). The 2023 results publicly released by the European Commission in May 2024 reveal that Spain continues to perform well as to the Fund. This can be seen in the way Spain is involved in the majority of projects and how it is playing the role of coordinator in several important defence research and development projects. For this successful role, Spain relies on a diversified defence ecosystem made up of firms, specialised colleges and research institutes. The country relies on a several large defence firms to ensure efficient project management, and it is increasing its collaborative role in key military domains such as defence innovation, air combat, information superiority, ground combat and more. Thus, the 2023 EDF call results ring a positive note for Spain’s continued role in developing the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base. A partner of choice? Spain’s performance in the European Defence Fund in 2023 – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
UK
(Dana Allin – IISS) Brexit Britain fell deeply into the turmoil of twenty-first-century populism, yet it appeared in summer 2024 that the centre would hold. Keir Starmer’s Britain: Can the Centre Hold? (iiss.org)
(Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI) What can the Royal Navy learn from ongoing conflicts in the Black Sea and Red Sea regarding the future employment and design of its assets? Lessons from the Black and Red Sea on the Use and Design of Future Fleets | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA
(Eric Sigmon – Elcano Royal Institute) President Biden entered office in January 2021 with ambitious plans to overhaul US immigration management policy at the US-Mexico border and reverse many of the controversial policies implemented by former President Trump. While Biden has made many noteworthy reforms to reshape US immigration policy, he has faced historic irregular immigration flows at the US-Mexico border, and immigration has emerged as one of the most important issues for voters leading up to the November 2024 presidential elections. From campaign to implementation: an overview of Biden’s immigration policy – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
(Stephen J. Cimbala, Lawrence J. Korb – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Enormous cost overruns in the Sentinel program have engendered a debate about how or if to go forward with a US intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) modernization program. We see five potential paths forward that might reduce costs and maintain or even improve the United States’ strategic posture. But to make the best military and financial choice, the United States government will have to consider how an updated missile force relates to evolving technology in the space and cyber realms and the implications of decisions about ICBM modernization for nuclear arms control. A game plan for dealing with the costly Sentinel missile and future nuclear challenges – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
(Douglas Barrie, Timothy Wright – IISS) By focusing on qualitative rather than quantitative improvements, Washington can enhance the capability of its nuclear forces and avoid fuelling a quantitative arms race. Not More, But More Assured: Optimising US Nuclear Posture (iiss.org)
(Council on Foreign Relations) Christopher Kirchhoff, former special assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Raj M. Shah, managing partner of Shield Capital, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the efforts by the U.S. Department of Defense to incorporate cutting-edge technology into its operations. Silicon Valley and the Future of Warfare, With Christopher Kirchhoff and Raj M. Shah | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – Africa
(Abhishek Mishra – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Successive US governments have devoted insufficient attention and resources to the African continent. Three key challenges vis-à-vis US engagement towards Africa relate to sustaining the diplomatic momentum, renewing of the AGOA and declining US military presence at a time of rising Islamist threat and growing Russian and Chinese influence. Hits and Misses of United States’ Africa Policy under Biden | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
