From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: ASEAN; Gulf; India; Indonesia; International Day for People of African Descent; Japan; Malaysia; Quad; Russia-Ukraine; Southeast Asia-US
ASEAN
(Him Raksmey – FULCRUM) The effectiveness of ASEAN’s dispute settlement mechanisms has come under scrutiny amid growing security challenges that threaten regional peace and stability. This article examines the genesis of and primary ASEAN mechanisms for the pacific settlement of inter-state disputes and discusses their utility. – In Search of Effective and Peaceful ASEAN Dispute Settlement Mechanisms | FULCRUM
Gulf
(Samriddhi Vij – Observer Research Foundation) In recent years, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have emerged as active and ambitious players in the global soft power arena. Faced with the twin pressures of economic diversification and geopolitical repositioning, these states are utilising an array of tools to reshape how they are perceived internationally. This brief examines how GCC countries are cultivating soft power across multiple domains and evaluates the effectiveness of these strategies in enhancing their international influence. It analyses both state-driven initiatives and their supporting ecosystems, such as sovereign wealth funds, media platforms, cultural institutions, and development aid frameworks. Through comparative analysis, the brief explores the divergence in soft power trajectories among the Gulf states and identifies which approaches are yielding the most credible global influence. It also offers certain strategic insights for trailing countries within the GCC to enhance their international soft power. – The Rise of Soft Power in the Gulf: A Comparative Analysis of GCC Strategies
India
(Shameek Godara – Lowy The Interpreter) At a time when India’s alignment with the West seemed firm, developments this month underscore a more complex reality. Amid deepening military and economic ties with the United States and its Quad partners, New Delhi also moved to revive links with Beijing. This contradictory posture is by design: hedging is now the operative logic of statecraft. What is striking today is not that these behaviours exist – they never disappeared – but that they are more visible and decisive than ever. In an era of great-power competition, fractured supply chains, and technological disruption, states are prioritising flexibility over loyalty. The politics of convenience, long a feature of international life, has become the dominant lens through which middle powers navigate uncertainty. India illustrates this well. – The age of alliances is ending, with hedging the rule of order | Lowy Institute
Indonesia
(Rahman Yaacob – Lowy The Interpreter) The Indonesian military’s (TNI) recent deployment of the Turkish-built KHAN ballistic missile system has attracted widespread attention. It has been described as a game-changer given that for the first time a Southeast Asian state now possesses a ballistic missile system. The missiles have been described as extending “Indonesia’s strike radius into disputed maritime corridors”, notably near the oil and gas-rich Natuna Islands. Such an argument rests on the assumption that the system could be aimed at China, given the overlapping maritime claims between China and Indonesia around the Natuna Seas. Yet, a more detailed analysis would suggest China and the South China Sea are not the target of Indonesia’s KHAN ballistic missile system. – Indonesia’s KHAN missiles aren’t targeting China | Lowy Institute
(Made Supriatma – FULCRUM) As Indonesia celebrated its 80th Independence Day, President Prabowo Subianto, following tradition, granted pardons to convicted felons in late July. Among those pardoned were two prominent politicians: Thomas “Tom” Trikasih Lembong, who was briefly former President Joko Widodo’s trade minister (2015–2016), and Hasto Kristiyanto, Secretary-General of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). – Prabowo’s Pardons of Political Opponents: A Step Towards an Integralist State? | FULCRUM
International Day for People of African Descent
(UN News) On the International Day for People of African Descent, celebrated each year on 31 August, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for justice, dignity and equality for people of African descent around the world. In a message released ahead of the Day, Mr. Guterres honoured the “extraordinary” contributions of people of African descent across every sphere of human endeavour. The Secretary-General also recognised the “long shadows” of slavery and colonialism, which include systemic racism, unequal economies and societies, and the digital divide (between those who are able to benefit from digital technology, and those who don’t have access). – UN chief calls for justice and ‘real change’ for people of African descent | UN News
Japan
(East Asia Forum) Despite the Liberal Democratic Party’s losing its majority in both houses, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba continues to cling to power, leaving Japan in political gridlock with no party strong enough to govern or replace him. Pressure mounts from the conservative nationalist faction within the LDP as well as the rising far-right Sanseito party, both of which exploit nationalist sentiment to challenge Ishiba’s more moderate positions. Scandals have weakened his internal rivals and division between opposite parties prevent a likely alternative government from arising, but the stalemate undermines policymaking on critical issues like relations with China and immigration and deepens the costs of political paralysis. – Japan’s political house of cards | East Asia Forum
Malaysia
(Wan Chang Da – FULCRUM) The Malaysian government has put forth some of the boldest education reforms in recent memory. The first two of these reforms were announced as part of the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP) 2026–2030, which was tabled by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on 31 July 2025 with the theme of Redesigning Development. According to the plan, preschool will be made mandatory for children at the age of five, with the minimum compulsory duration for preschool being capped at one year. In addition, the starting age for Primary One will be lowered from the current age of seven to six. – Can the 13th Malaysia Plan’s Bold Education Reforms Pass the Test of Delivery? | FULCRUM
Quad
(Sanchari Ghosh – Lowy The Interpreter) The New York Times reported at the weekend that Donald Trump has shelved his plans to attend the Quad summit in India, following a testy exchange with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The resulting headlines from this latest report on top of months of US-India tension are a reminder of how the Quad itself remains hostage to the unpredictability of US politics. Trump’s whimsical approach to policy, from shelving summits to his threats of punitive tariffs, carries a cost. The Quad has always been a peculiar grouping, dependent on the commitment of its most powerful member, the United States. In moments of convergence, it has generated momentum: joint naval exercises, technology dialogues, supply chain initiatives. But in moments of distraction or divergence, whether due to US-China rapprochement or leadership changes, the Quad has faltered. The latest episode underlines the chronic fragility of the Quad: a grouping that risks being defined less by shared resolve among four democracies and more by the shifting calculus of one superpower. – Four legs bad, three legs better? Rescuing the Quad with an India-Japan-Australia grouping | Lowy Institute
Russia – Ukraine
(Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Jennie Olmsted, Jessica Sobieski, a nd Kateryna Stepanenko – Institute for the Study of War) The Kremlin is pursuing a multi-pronged informational effort aimed at deterring Western support for Ukraine and undermining European participation in the peace process.
Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for exaggerating its battlefield successes.
The Kremlin is intensifying these information efforts because its territorial gains remain disproportionately limited and slow relative to the high losses incurred.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Southeast Asia – US
(Jayant Menon – FULCRUM) US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have hit Southeast Asia particularly hard. Although these tariffs have come down somewhat, they are still significant. The question facing exporters is whether to “eat” the tariffs by reducing profit margins, or to “pass through” the tariffs to importers in higher prices and risk loss of market share. It is likely that Southeast Asian exporters will eventually opt for the latter, like their competitors, thus resulting in more negative effects on the US than any other economy. Trump thinks — quite erroneously — that the burden of tariffs falls on foreign sellers, not domestic buyers, thereby limiting their negative impacts. This will depend on how Southeast Asian exporters, and their competitors, respond. – Will Southeast Asian Exporters ‘Eat’ the Trump Tariffs? | FULCRUM
