From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Afghanistan
(Susan Hutchinson – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Meryl Streep brings global attention to the ever-deteriorating situation for Afghan women. Her speech at the UN General Assembly went viral, creating space to talk about the myriad ways the Taliban’s gender apartheid regime is breaching the rights of women in Afghanistan and what we can do to help. – For Women in Kabul a Cat has More Rights – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Asia
(Stacie E. Goddard – Lowy The interpreter) As great power competition intensifies in the Indo-Pacific, so too has contestation over power-transition narratives. On the one hand, there are those that see US power in steep decline. With China’s increasing economic and military might, even the former hegemon’s traditional alliances are likely to falter. A US withdrawal from the region is only a matter of time. On the other, there are those that see China as a paper tiger. Beijing’s increased tempo of military operations in the South China Seas and its continued investment in Belt and Road Initiatives in the region are only masks for its inherent economic and demographic weakness. – Power in Asia: Pivots, paper tigers and regional poles | Lowy Institute
Australia
(John Coyne, Liam Auliciems – ASPI The Strategist) Nitazenes, a group of potent synthetic opioids, are fuelling a global overdose crisis, with rising fatalities across Europe and North America. In Australia, nitazenes are only just making their mark, from hip inner-city nightclubs to needle exchanges. Australia faces an urgent threat that has the potential to fuel organised crime, increase overdoses, destabilise communities and create a new generation of people with an addiction. The government must take decisive action to safeguard public health and take harm-reduction measures. Understanding the nature of opioids is crucial to grasping the potential implications of a rapid take-up of nitazenes in Australia. – Nitazenes threaten to unleash a new Australian opioid crisis | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – China
(Andrew Forrest – ASPI The Strategist) To signal resolve to China, Australia must develop and clearly communicate a broadened strategic reliance on Indo-Pacific partners. One of the most challenging aspects of Australia’s relationship with China is finding new ways to signal our interest in keeping the region open and free. Central to that is our willingness to develop meaningful strategic partnerships with other regional countries. This task is complicated by Beijing’s habit of seeing Australian interests as aspects of alliance relationships, particularly the Australia-US alliance. – Broadening strategic reliance to signal Australia’s resolve against China | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
China
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) On August 15 this year, China announced its decision to restrict the export of antimony, a critical mineral used in strategic sectors such as defence, for military equipment such as missiles, infrared sensors, flares, ammunition, and even nuclear weapons. China’s Commerce Ministry justified this move on the basis of “national security”, adding that the measure would take effect from September 15. The declaration, however, was part of a series of countermoves that began in August 2023. – China’s warning shots with minerals that run the world (orfonline.org)
(Abhishek Kumar Darbey – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Chinese leadership has been wary of possible social and political disturbances as a result of the exposure of the Chinese netizens to digital platforms. Externally, the Chinese government has robustly opposed the alleged ‘anti-China’ narratives espoused by the West. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is also using virtual reality (VR) simulated technology in military training to strengthen cognitive thinking and physical training of its soldiers. – China and Cognitive Warfare: An Overview | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
(ThinkChina) As Alibaba completes its “rectification” process following antitrust investigations, it finds itself faced with intense competition and a changed e-commerce landscape. Can it reinvent itself and rise to the top again? NUS academic Xu Le looks into the issue. – Can Alibaba rise again? (thinkchina.sg)
(ThinkChina) Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Chen Jing notes that the recent measures implemented by the Chinese authorities and targeted at the real estate market has led to a sudden uptick in the stock market. However, it remains to be seen if it will last long enough to boost consumer confidence. – The turning tide: Is China’s housing market set to rebound? (thinkchina.sg)
(Tianlei Huang, Zhuowen Li – Australian Institute of International Affairs) China was once a magnet for foreign investment. Foreign firms were eager to use it as a low-cost production location to manufacture goods that they then exported elsewhere. Over time, more businesses have adopted the “in China for China” strategy, meaning they produce in the country to serve the vast and growing domestic market. But as China’s economy slows down and tensions with the US rise, foreign investors are pulling out from China at a speed unseen in decades. China’s leaders have responded by pledging further opening of the economy to foreign investment. Yet it is proving difficult to overcome an overall atmosphere of apprehension. – Foreign Capital Exodus from China Accelerates – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(W.Y. Kwok – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has trained 2,700 foreign police officers in the past year and pledged to train an additional 3,000 in the coming 12 months, as part of its growing involvement in global security governance. The Global Public Security Cooperation Forum, held this year in Lianyungang, saw participation from 122 countries, regions, and international organizations. It showcased the PRC’s vision of global public security cooperation and advanced law enforcement technologies, including facial recognition software and drones. The conference advanced the PRC’s ambitions to set new global security standards, particularly through the launch of the Global Public Safety Index and initiatives addressing transnational crime and AI-related risks. – The Lianyungang Conference and Beijing’s Attempts to Reshape Global Security – Jamestown
China – Japan
(Pratnashree Basu, Raka Barman – Observer Research Foundation) A new stress point in the Indo-Pacific emerged in late August 2024 as a Chinese electronic intelligence collection military aircraft, a PLA Y-9DZ, was identified in the Japanese airspace near the Nagasaki prefecture. While Chinese planes frequently appear in the international airspace around Japan, the country’s defence ministry described this breach as the first known incursion by China’s military into Japan’s territorial airspace. Over the past two decades, Japan has increasingly faced foreign aircraft encroachments. In 2023, Japan’s self-defence force scrambled fighter jets to intercept foreign aircraft on 669 occasions, of which 479 were in response to Chinese aircraft sightings, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defence. In this recent instance, a map released by the Japanese Defence Ministry showed the Chinese aircraft, a Y-9 reconnaissance plane, flying in a rectangular circuit pattern off the eastern side of the Danjo Islands when it briefly headed west and crossed into the islands’ territorial airspace—which extends 12 nautical miles from the coast of the islands—for about two minutes. – China’s incursion into Japan’s airspace (orfonline.org)
(ThinkChina) The fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in China has sparked a wave of mutual suspicion and ill-feeling between Japanese and Chinese, says Japanese academic Shin Kawashima. This is not helped by the lack of transparency from China on the investigations into the case, and its anti-espionage laws that have led to several Japanese businessmen being detained. – Japanese academic: Stabbing in Shenzhen and Japan-China relations (thinkchina.sg)
China – Palau
(Jessica Caterson – ASPI The Strategist) Palau is finding itself increasingly entangled in China’s economic web—in many cases, it seems, because Beijing is controlling investment and business links with the strategically critical Pacific nation of 18,000 people. Beijing is using tactics such as creating dominance in tourism, making empty investments in real estate, bribing local politicians and sending Chinese organised crime to Palau. Its economic influence becomes political influence as local leaders consider local jobs, incomes and infrastructures when making decisions. It’s no exaggeration to say that the scale of China’s involvement in the Palauan economy poses a challenge to the sovereignty of this US-aligned country. – How giant China looms over tiny Palau’s economy | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
India
(Rohit Kumar Sharma – Manohar Parrikar Institute) India’s online gaming industry is rapidly expanding.With 442 million gamers, India has become the second-largest gaming market globally. Despite a 28 per cent GST on online gaming, the sector is projected to reach US$ 8.92 billion in the next five years, according to an assessment. As one of the rapidly growing segments in the entertainment industry, there are many concerns associated with the online gaming industry, such as potential addiction, cybersecurity issues, and other malicious activities. Recently, an investigation by the Enforcement Directorate against an online gaming app has led to the disclosure of an estimated Rs 400 crore fraud. To tackle these challenges, the Indian government has laid down rules to support the steady growth in the online gaming sector while implementing measures to prevent illicit activities and potential pitfalls. – Regulating India’s Online Gaming Industry | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
India – Central Asia
(Ayjaz Wani – Observer Research Foundation) Recent geopolitical disruptions and India’s geoeconomic and geopolitical ambitions necessitate the building of new, more reliable multimodal trade corridors. This report examines the strategic importance for New Delhi of the ten-year agreement on Chabahar Port in Iran, and how it aligns with India’s ‘Connect Central Asia Policy’ and historical ties with the region. The Chabahar Port, along with the International North-South Trade Corridor (INSTC), offer India a resilient alternative for trade with Central Asia and beyond. – The Chabahar Gambit: India’s Play for Influence in Central Asia (orfonline.org)
India – China
(Rakesh Sharma – Vivekananda International Foundation) India aspires to be and is steadily on the way to be a developed nation by 2047, and to which end, Viksit Bharat and Surakshit Bharat (Prosperous India, Secure India) are wheels of the same chariot, being driven in the same direction. In both of these significant national aspirations, China must be constantly analysed, as it looms large, being the largest trading partner of India and a threat along the Northern Border! – Viksit Bharat and Surakshit Bharat: Wheels of the Same Chariot | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
India – Somaliland – China – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – ASPI The Strategist) India should develop closer relations with Somaliland, especially by using its port. This could provide India a valuable tool for countering China’s influence along the eastern coast of Africa. In looking for access to the Red Sea, India should avoid overcrowded Djibouti and opt for Somaliland’s port of Berbera. Berbera handles 1/10 as much traffic as Djibouti’s port, but it is growing, thanks to investment by Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are new members of the BRICS grouping and key partners for India. – Somaliland is where India can counter China in east Africa | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
India – Sri Lanka
(Harsh V. Pant, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) Since Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was elected as the ninth executive president of Sri Lanka, there is speculation about the new government’s foreign policy. Given the economic and geopolitical scenario, pragmatism is likely to take precedence — Sri Lanka will continue to balance between India and China. The new dispensation’s quest for good governance and reforms will also likely benefit India in the long run. At its inception in the 1960s, the JVP was a staunchly anti-Indian organisation with its Marxist and Sinhala nationalist ideology. Fighting Indian “expansionism” in South Asia was one of its core ideological themes. Its first insurrection against the Sri Lankan State in 1971 ended quickly, with India stepping in to secure the Colombo airport and conducting maritime patrols at the request of the Sri Lankan government. However, the second insurrection, between 1987-1990, became even more anti-Indian with the JVP criticising the Indo-Lanka accord that permitted the deployment of Indian Peace Keeping Forces (IPKF) in Sri Lanka. – Balancing Pragmatism and Ideology in India-Sri Lanka ties (orfonline.org)
Middle East
(Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a “targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon” on September 30. It is unclear where or if the IDF has entered southern Lebanon in force at the time of writing. Western media reported on September 30 that Israeli special operations forces have already been conducting cross-border raids “to gather intelligence” ahead of the operation since last week, citing unspecified sources. – Iranian Response to Israeli Operations in Lebanon: Iran will likely not be able to intervene in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in a way that meaningfully impacts the outcome of the conflict. Iran could take other measures to harm Israeli and US interests in an effort to stop Israeli operations against Hezbollah. These actions would likely also fail to meaningfully disrupt current Israeli operations in Lebanon. – Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed four attacks on Israel on September 30. – Iran Update, September 30, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) The assassination of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in strikes in Beirut on 27 September narrowed Iran’s already slim options. Beyond the usual regime rhetoric consisting of threats to retaliate against the ‘Zionist regime’, Iran has not yet articulated a coherent message to indicate how it will respond. There is considerable debate within the Iranian system, split between hardliner calls for direct action and others that caution against falling into an Israeli ‘trap’ that would be to Iran’s strategic detriment. The reality is that Tehran has no good options, and any potential retaliation against Israel will have limited impact given Tehran’s diminished leverage. – What are Iran’s Options after Nasrallah’s Death? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
(Robert Satloff – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) By building on the death of an Iran-backed terrorist leader, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on October 8, which is no small achievement. – 6 Consequences of Israel Killing Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah | The Washington Institute
(Middle East Institute) Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the rapid degradation of the group’s power shows Hezbollah can no longer deter or defend against Israeli attacks, although it could still put up a fight against a land incursion. In profound ways, the current rout of Hezbollah leaves Iran profoundly vulnerable: without a strategic deterrent force on Israel’s border and unable to fully prevent Israel from attacking its nuclear facilities if it attempts to quickly acquire a nuclear weapon to compensate. – Special Briefing: Nasrallah killing reshapes the regional power balance | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(Jon B. Alterman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Events in the Middle East are not going the way the Biden administration had hoped. A year ago, the administration had embarked on a strategy that would stabilize the region by improving Israeli-Arab ties. Hamas’s October 7 attacks were aimed at stopping that process, and they did. And while Iran has embarked on a campaign to improve its ties with the rest of the world in recent months, the Israeli assault on Hezbollah will stop that. The Biden White House remains at the center of much of the region’s diplomacy, but its sway in the region is limited—and the challenges are likely to grow more sharply in the coming weeks. – Seizing Middle East Opportunities (csis.org)
(Brookings) Israel’s killing of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon on September 27, 2024 will have ripple effects across the Middle East. Brookings experts reflect on the implications of the Hezbollah leader’s death. – What will Nasrallah’s death mean for the Middle East? (brookings.edu)
Myanmar
(Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation) Myanmar is undergoing a shift in its political landscape, challenging the Junta’s long-standing grip on power. Since 1962, the military has ruled unchallenged, initially through direct control, later shifting to semi-democratic governance post-2012, and a fragile democratic period from 2015 until the 2021 coup. The junta likely believed it could quickly consolidate power and suppress resistance as it had during the 1988 uprising and the 2007 Saffron Revolution. However, this time, the State Administration Council (SAC), or the governing body of the junta, faced an unexpected and powerful opposition—a united front of ethnic armed groups and civilian forces determined to dismantle the military rule. What initially began as a mass civil disobedience movement has evolved into a broader conflict, showcasing the resilience of the Peoples Defence Forces (PDFs), an armed force of the National Unity Government (NUG), joined at some level by Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), demonstrating a united front to hold offensives in the border areas and overthrow military rule. – Changing balance of power in Myanmar: A post-coup analysis (orfonline.org)
NATO
(Oana Lungescu – RUSI) The beginning of October marks the end of an era for NATO. Jens Stoltenberg will complete his decade-long tenure, and former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will take over as Secretary General. They will start the day together on 1 October at NATO headquarters in Brussels, laying a wreath at the granite memorial for the fallen and addressing the alliance’s civilian and military staff, before Stoltenberg hands over the gavel at the circular table of the North Atlantic Council, where the ambassadors of the 32 allies sit. Stoltenberg will then head back home to Norway, confident that he is leaving the alliance stronger – with robust defence plans, more defence spending, and four new members. – Five Tests for the New NATO Chief | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
North Korea
(Sarah Laderman, Nikita Degtyarev, Tianran Xu, Elin Bergner, Marcy R Fowler – RUSI) North Korea remains one of the most opaque nuclear states in the world, offering little information about its nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) and weapons programme. Yet, the structure and scope of its programme have significant implications for global stability. There is a need for a robust analytical methodology that can derive insights from limited data to assess North Korea’s NFC and nuclear strategy. Such analysis is crucial for the international community, particularly should diplomatic avenues reopen, providing a rare opportunity to curtail or reverse North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. – Fissile-Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
(Ranjit Kumar Dhawan – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Juche ideology has been central to North Korea’s political system. This idea was promoted by the North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, and the goal was to attain national self-reliance. Paradoxically, North Korea remained heavily dependent on foreign aid for its economic development during the Cold War period. In recent months, Pyongyang has rejected humanitarian aid even from its close allies. – The Geopolitics of North Korea’s Juche Ideology under Kim Jong-un | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin announced revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 that are neither radical nor surprising. The timing of Putin’s heavy hints and direct threats is indicative of his real intent for what he plans for his war in Ukraine. The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts. – Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal – Jamestown
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is more openly highlighting the significant role Cossacks are taking in its war against Ukraine and within Russian society through the media and promoting cultural and militaristic Cossack events and organizations. The Kremlin’s transition to promoting the Cossack narrative versus its previous rhetoric on Ukrainian Naziism has an emotional and historical appeal to people throughout Russia, creating a new motivation for the Russian people to support the war. The Kremlin may turn its attention to Eastern Ukraine after the war ends, likely using the region’s Cossack legacy to historicize Russia’s crusade to take over more Ukrainian territory. – Moscow Uses Cossacks’ Cultural Significance as Part of New War Narrative – Jamestown
(Christina Harward, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) The Russian government plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2025 — about 41 percent of its annual expenditures. The Russian budget will continue to support various social programs, including the Kremlin’s pronatalist programs, but a continued focus on defense spending is likely affecting the effectiveness and sustainability of these programs. – Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted presidential aide and close personal ally Alexei Dyumin to the Russian Security Council alongside three other officials. – The Kremlin continues to use state and regional awards to co-opt previously critical milbloggers as part of wider efforts to gain control over the information space. – Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Tehran on September 30 to meet with various Iranian officials and highlight Russo-Iranian economic cooperation. – Russian forces recently advanced in Glushkvosky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. – Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. – Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on September 30 the decree on Russia’s usual semi-annual fall conscription for 133,000 draftees. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Taiwan – China – Russia
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te stated that if China’s claims on Taiwan are about territorial integrity, then it should also press for the restoration of land from Russia that the Qing dynasty signed over in the 19th century. If Russia can insist that Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, and other territories are historically Russian, then China, in turn, could contend that large swathes of Russia’s Far East are historically Chinese. As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, China’s importance to the survival of Russia’s economy increases, as its explosive economic growth has turned Russia’s east into a colony with an abundance of energy and raw materials. – Taiwan’s President Suggests China Demand Return of Land Ceded to Russia a Century Ago – Jamestown
USA – Asia
(Sam Roggeveen – Lowy The Interpreter) Three foreign policy tribes are competing for ascendancy in a second Trump administration, with different prescriptions for America’s role in the Asian security order. We can assume none will be decisive. However, one thing seems pre-ordained because all three tribes want it: an escalation of economic and technological competition with China. – Trump and Asian security | Lowy Institute
USA – China
(Richard McGregor – Lowy The Interpreter) During the 2020 US election campaign, Beijing considered whether it should surreptitiously attempt to interfere in the contest by putting a thumb on the scale on behalf of either of the two candidates, Donald Trump or Joe Biden. In the end, Beijing didn’t bother, according to a new book by David Sanger, the longtime New York Times national security reporter, because the leadership concluded “there was no prospect for a pro-China administration” whatever the outcome. This time around, has China’s interference calculus changed in an election pitting Kamala Harris, the vice president and Democratic candidate, against Trump? In other words, does China care that much about who will win? – Kamala Harris and China: Competition and antagonism, continued | Lowy Institute
