Geostrategic environment (september 9, 2022)

Queen Elizabeth II

• September 9, 2022. Simon Heffer, The Interpreter. Queen Elizabeth II’s role in foreign affairs may appear to be a contradiction in terms. As a constitutional monarch, she could take no initiative in these or any other political matters, but had to act on the advice of her prime ministers, whether in Britain or any other country of which she was head of state. Nonetheless, during her extensive reign, Britain and the Commonwealth faced foreign policy challenges and upheavals that required consummate diplomatic skill, and the Queen, who has died aged 96, was often enlisted as part of that process, or had to help manage it. Queen Elizabeth II: For Country and Commonwealth
• September 8, 2022. Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. Queen Elizabeth II died Thursday in Scotland, ending her 70-year reign as one of the world’s most visible diplomats.  Queen Elizabeth II Dead at 96
• September 8, 2022. Andrew R. Marshall, Atlantic Council. The death of Queen Elizabeth II marks the passing of an era in the United Kingdom. It may also signal the end of an approach to global politics that she personified—an idea of a world brought together as a family or community, one that she deeply cared about. The end of Queen Elizabeth’s moral geopolitics
• September 8, 2022. Atlantic Council. Queen Elizabeth II, England’s longest-serving monarch, died Thursday at the age of 96. Having assumed the throne in 1952, she was a beloved, steadying presence during an era in which her nation saw its place in the world transformed. We reached out to experts across the Atlantic Council network for their reflections on her reign, her importance to the transatlantic relationship, and more. The Atlantic Council remembers Queen Elizabeth II

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan) September 9, 2022. Amin Saikal, The Strategist. As the world marks the anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks this weekend, two other events should be remembered. Afghan commander Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated on 9 September 2001 by al-Qaeda agents, two days before the attacks on New York and Washington. Massoud had fought Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the Taliban and al-Qaeda alliance in the following decade. The other event in this bleak trio is the Taliban’s reassumption of power in the wake of the US and allied retreat from Afghanistan a year ago. Together they explain the mess that is Afghanistan today. Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the tragedy of Afghanistan
• (Africa) September 8, 2022. Puja Daya, IAEA. Cancer is a leading cause of death globally, but it is one that hits lower income countries particularly hard. Without the use of radiopharmaceuticals — medical drugs containing radioisotopes — the abilities of doctors in such countries to detect and treat cancer are limited. Building Radiopharmaceutical Sustainability for Cancer Care in Africa
• (Australia) September 8, 2022. Greg Earl, The Interpreter. Australia’s ministers for home affairs and their immigration or border protection predecessors in recent years have tended to be associated with rhetoric about nation building behind the secure borders of an erstwhile Lucky Country. Economic diplomacy: Nation building at home and abroad
• (Cambodia – ASEAN) September 8, 2022. Chansambath Bong, East Asia Forum. Cambodia’s ASEAN diplomacy shone brightly on the international stage in July 2022. Against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, looming energy and food crises, the political upheaval in Myanmar and US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s contentious trip to Taiwan, Cambodia advanced ASEAN’s collective interest with a sense of shared responsibility.  Cambodia’s ASEAN diplomacy in the spotlight
• (China) September 9, 2022. Michael Clarke, The Interpreter. Propaganda, understood as the “deliberate, systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behaviour to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist”, has been central to the Chinese Communist Party’s governance of China since the inception of the People’s Republic.  Beijing three-step: China denies, deflects and dissembles on Xinjiang
• (Estonia – Poland) September 8, 2022. Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. Estonia on Wednesday signed a deal to acquire the Piorun weapon, a short-range, man-portable air defense system already on order by Poland. Estonia joins Poland in buying Piorun anti-aircraft missiles
• (Europe – USA) September 8, 2022. Emily Benson, CSIS. Following the introduction of legislation to implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in the European Union, the United States has followed with its own equivalent proposals. The EU CBAM and surrounding legal issues have invited fierce debate on both sides of the Atlantic and have animated the trade community on whether a proposal would comply with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. (For a comprehensive description of the transatlantic proposals, see CSIS’s previous piece on the topic.). CBAM Precedents: Experts Weigh In
• (Latin America and the Carribean) September 9, 2022. Eva Lardizábal and Pepe Zhang, Atlantic Council. Small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development is critical for broad-based and sustained economic growth as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) grapple with ongoing global shocks following two years of pandemic-related fiscal challenges. SMEs are a primary source of job creation, comprising 99.5 percent of firms in the region, and accounting for 60 percent of employment. Yet, these same firms represent only 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), due to constraints spanning financial to productivity issues.  Unlocking SME potential in Latin America and the Caribbean
• (Malaysia) September 7, 2022. William Case, East Asia Forum. For nearly half a century, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) imposed single-party dominance in Malaysia. UMNO’s internal party elections, Malaysia’s general elections and the country’s judicial proceedings are three stand-out mechanisms that helped maintain this dominance. But as their functions have been transfigured, they have become the objects of bitter contention between rival leaders and factions in UMNO. Malaysia’s institutional uncertainty

• (Myanmar) September 9, 2022. Sam Baron and Julian Neuweiler, The Strategist. The recent executions of four high-profile democracy activists in Myanmar—the first to take place in the country in more than three decades—plainly demonstrate the enduring brutality of its military regime. Since ousting the civilian government in a coup d’état in February of last year, Myanmar’s military regime, known as the State Administrative Council (SAC), has murdered at least 2,220 civilians, forcibly displaced more than 900,000, and led the economy to the brink of collapse, forcing millions into poverty. ASEAN set to get tougher on Myanmar, and Australia should follow suit
• (Russia) September 8, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. The murder of Darya Dugina—the daughter of Aleksandr Dugin, who many view as the instigator for some of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s more aggressive and expansionist ideas—in Moscow on August 20 has sparked three sets of questions: Was her father the real target? Who was responsible for blowing up her car? And how will the Kremlin, or perhaps others, use this murder to further their own goals? Answers to the first two questions are still very much open despite one claim of responsibility, numerous suggestions that others were involved and even a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) report that it had arrested a Ukrainian woman and charged her with carrying out the attack. (For two useful surveys by thoughtful Russian observers, see Masha Gessen’s discussion, The New Yorker, August 26; and Victor Davidoff’s analysis, The Moscow Times, August 23.). With the Killing of Darya Dugina, Putin Finds Critical Corollaries to Stalin
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 8, 2022. Patrick Tucker, Defense One. The Ukrainian military has performed well with the weapons that the United States and other nations have provided for them, the top U.S. military officer said Thursday. Ukraine’s Western Arms Have Inflicted ‘Significant Damage’ On Russian Supply, Communications Lines, Top US Officer Says
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 8, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Mason Clark, ISW. Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 8, 2022. Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. As anticipated well ahead of the curve (see EDM, July 21, 22), Russia has missed the September 11 target date for staging annexation “referendums” in Ukraine’s occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Moscow and the local authorities it installed in both regions waited until early September 2022 to acknowledge the failure and to consider some later dates for these referendums (TASS, September 5, 6, 7). Russian ‘Referendums’ Delayed, Ukrainian Resistance Mounting in Occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (Part One)
• (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) September 9, 2022. Nick Bisley, The Interpreter. The 22nd leaders’ summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, to be held on 15–16 September, will be the first in-person gathering of the central Asian grouping since 2019. The world’s eyes will be on the ancient Uzbek Silk Road city Samarkand as the host because this summit will likely provide Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin their first face-to-face meeting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and declaration last year of a “forever partnership”. The SCO: an illiberal club of growing global significance
• (South Korea – Japan) September 8, 2022.  Gabriela Bernal, The Interpreter. The relationship between South Korea and Japan seems to be moving in a positive direction, with two high-level meetings held this week between officials from both sides. Although dialogue seems to be increasing, several points of contention remain unresolved between the neighbours. Can Seoul and Tokyo mend ties?
• (Sweden) September 8, 2022. Aaron Korewa and Eric Adamson, Atlantic Council. The eyes of the world have been on Sweden during its bid for NATO membership. But as voters in the Nordic nation head to the polls for a September 11 general election, domestic issues will be their primary concern. Your guide to Sweden’s fringe-driven general election
• (UK – Europe) September 8, 2022. CSIS. CSIS’s Max Bergmann joins the podcast to discuss the UK’s new PM and the energy and economic war she, and Europe are facing. PM Truss and Europe’s Energy War
• (USA) September 9, 2022. Jessica Bulman-Pozen, Miriam Seifter, Lawfare. In a recent landmark decision, the North Carolina Supreme Court limited the power of an unconstitutionally gerrymandered legislature to initiate amendments to the state constitution. The case is a big deal for the law of democracy.  State Constitutions as a Defense Against Election Subversion
• (USA) September 8, 2022. Quinta Jurecic, Natalie K. Orpett, Benjamin Wittes, Lawfare. The Justice Department has now filed a notice of appeal and a motion to partially stay U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s Monday opinion granting former President Trump’s request for a special master to review material seized at Mar-a-Lago and enjoining the use of the material the FBI took in the meantime for investigative purposes. Everything Wrong With Judge Cannon’s Ruling
• (USA) September 8, 2022. Darrell M. West, Brookings. Legislation recently signed into law by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis challenges academic freedom in fundamental respects. His “Stop WOKE Act” restricts public higher education institutions, and others, from teaching about racial injustice, therefore impinging on traditional faculty prerogatives to teach courses based on their substantive expertise. In addition, provisions in the bill that allow administrators to fire professors who fail to comply with newly enacted pedagogic restrictions threaten the job security of those working in public universities. Why academic freedom challenges are dangerous for democracy
• (USA) September 8, 2022. Ryan Nunn and Katherine Lim, Brookings. For much of 2022, the U.S. has enjoyed an unusually strong labor market. Unemployment is historically low and job creation is well above the level needed to keep pace with population growth. By some measures, such as wage growth, the labor market is especially solid for many lower-wage workers. A COVID-19 labor force legacy: The drop in dual-worker families
• (USA) September 8, 2022. Matthew Fiedler, Brookings. Matthew Fiedler submitted a comment letter in response to a recent proposed rule issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) that included several proposals related to the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP), Medicare’s main accountable care organization (ACO) program. Comments on the Medicare Shared Savings Program
• (USA) September 8, 2022. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings. Ever since the victory of the Republican Party in 1860, American politics has been dominated by two political parties – Republicans and Democrats. And yet this apparent stability masks the fact that American parties have changed enormously over the years as one or the other political party morphs into something else. For instance, the Democratic Party was the party of segregation and Jim Crow after the Civil War and today it is the party of civil rights. The party of Lincoln has now become the party of Trump. Lessons from the 2022 Primaries – what do they tell us about America’s political parties and the midterm elections?
• (USA – Ukraine) September 9, 2022. US Department of State. Remarks to Traveling Press Before Departing Poland
• (USA – Ukraine) September 8, 2022. Patrick Tucker, Defense One. The Biden administration has approved a $675 million package of arms for Ukraine plus $1 billion in financial aid for the besieged country and $1 billion in aid for 18 of its regional neighbors, officials said Thursday. US Adds $675M in Arms, $2B in Financial Aid for Ukraine, Region
• (USA – Ukraine) September 8, 2022. Joe Gould and Sebastian Sprenger, Defense News. The U.S. unveiled nearly $3 billion in new aid for Ukraine and 18 of its neighbors on Thursday as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with allies in Germany and Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unscheduled visit to Kyiv. US unveils $2B in military aid for Europe, arms for Ukraine

TOPICS

• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. On April 20, 2022, Rapid7 discovered vulnerabilities in two TCP/IP–enabled medical devices produced by Baxter Healthcare.  Rapid7 Discusses SIGMA Spectrum Infusion Pump and Wi-Fi Battery Vulnerabilities
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. More than 10% of enterprise IT assets are missing endpoint protection and roughly 5% are not covered by enterprise patch management solutions.  Over 10% of Enterprise IT Assets Found Missing Endpoint Protection
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Security researchers have linked multiple ransomware campaigns to DEV–0270 (also known as Nemesis Kitten). The threat actor, widely considered a sub–group of Iranian actor PHOSPHORUS, conducts various malicious network operations on behalf of the Iranian government, according to a new write–up by Microsoft. Ransomware Campaigns Linked to Iranian Govt’s DEV-0270 Hackers
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Kevin Poireault, Infosecurity. British AI cybersecurity vendor Darktrace will not be acquired by US private equity firm Thoma Bravo. Darktrace’s Share Value Plummets as Thoma Bravo Buyout Falls Through
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Security researchers have uncovered another state-backed Iranian threat group with activity dating back at least seven years. Researchers Reveal New Iranian Threat Group APT42
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Kevin Poireault, Infosecurity. The spyware industry continues to find itself in the headlines, most notably for the controversial, and sometimes nefarious, use of spyware products. NSO Group’s Recent Difficulties Could Shape the Future of the Spyware Industry
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Outdoor clothing giant The North Face has notified customers that their account may have been compromised, after noticing unusual activity on its website last month. The North Face Warns of Major Credential Stuffing Campaign
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Kevin Poireault, Infosecurity. In Albania’s capital city Tirana, all staff of the Iranian embassy, including diplomatic and security personnel, were ordered to leave the country within 24 hours on September 7, 2022. NATO-Member Albania Cut Ties With Iran Over Cyber-Attack
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The Ukrainian security service (SBU) has found and dismantled two more Russian bot farms it said were being used to spread disinformation in the war-torn country. Ukraine Shutters Two More Russian Bot Farms
• (Cybersecurity) September 8, 2022. Stewart Baker, Lawfare. The Biden administration has pointed, with alarm, to the national security implications of both cybersecurity and cryptocurrency. It’s just a matter of time before the government begins worrying about their intersection—cryptocurrency security. Rethinking Responsible Disclosure for Cryptocurrency Security
• (Defense – Military – Security) Edward Graham, Defense One. The Department of Defense must adopt new approaches to software design and architecture to help the U.S. military maintain an operational advantage over global adversaries, according to a new report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Wednesday.  DOD Must Put Software at the Core of Its Operations, Report Says
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Caitlin M. Kenney, Defense One. The Army Brief: Assignment preferences; Educating cyber soldiers; Billions in Ukraine aid; and more…
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. Collins Aerospace, a subsidiary of Raytheon, won a contract worth as much as $583 million to produce the latest version of a technology that provides soldiers critical situational awareness and context on the battlefield. Raytheon unit wins $583 million contract for US Army navigation suite
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Joshua Dunne, Jasmine Latimore, Yvonne Lau, Hsi-Ting Pai, Stephan Robin and Ben Stevens, The Strategist. The five-domains update
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Edward Graham, Defense One. The Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate on Tuesday released a report outlining a series of best practices that local, state and federal agencies—and private-sector partners—should implement to protect critical infrastructure services from electromagnetic pulses. DHS’s Electromagnetic Pulse Shielding Mitigations report—which includes input from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and feedback from industry and government representatives—builds on the best practices used to protect the National Public Warning System, the network of radio stations that allows the U.S. president to communicate with the American public during a national emergency.  Shield Critical Infrastructure from Electromagnetic Pulses, DHS Says
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The U.S. Navy wants to help industry address economic challenges but plans to hold them accountable to cost and schedule, the service’s undersecretary said. Industry should ‘perform to what they’ve promised’ despite fiscal woes
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Mike Yeo, Defense News. This year’s multinational air combat exercise Pitch Black hosted the largest number of tankers than previous iterations of the drill. Record number of tankers participate in Pitch Black exercise
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Vivienne Machi, Defense News. Saab successfully demonstrated the live-fire of its mobile short-range air defense (MSHORAD) system for the first time in late August, the company announced Sept. 5. Saab touts successful test of new air-defense weapon
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Col. Maximillian K. Bremer and Kelly A. Grieco, Defense News. Six months after pre-dawn airstrikes first launched Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the skies over Ukraine remain contested. Ukraine’s success in denying air superiority to a larger and more technologically sophisticated Russian Air Force continues to puzzle military pundits. But in focusing mainly on Russian deficiencies, Western analysts have often missed the point: The air war in Ukraine, where neither side controls the skies, offers an alternative model of air control — mutual air denial. US Air Force needs to embrace air denial as a core mission (defensenews.com)
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Adam James Fenton and Ioannis Chapsos, Defense News. Like “self-driving” cars, autonomous ships are a reality and will likely revolutionize many aspects of shipping and maritime security. Are autonomous ships and vehicles ‘unmanned’ or ‘uncrewed’?
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Navy will deploy a carrier strike group with advanced networking capabilities next year, in furtherance of the Pentagon’s vision for Joint All-Domain Command and Control.  Navy to deploy carrier strike group with Project Overmatch networking
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 8, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler has overseen U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command for three years, helping it move some missions over to the Space Force, while growing the missions it retained amid a demand for more robust space and missile defense capabilities. US Army command integrates new capabilities into Patriot forces
• (Digital & Health) September 9, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Public health and medical researchers from Indiana University (IU) have announced a partnership with the Regenstrief Institute to develop a population-based surveillance system to determine the prevalence, trends, and outcomes of long COVID following a five-year, $9 million award from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). CDC Awards $9M for Development of Long COVID Surveillance System
• (Digital & Health) September 8, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. UPMC cancer researchers have launched a partnership with healthcare data analytics company Realyze Intelligence, a UPMC Enterprises portfolio company, to improve treatments for early-stage breast cancer using artificial intelligence and natural language understanding (NLU), a subset of natural language processing (NLP). UPMC Leverages Artificial Intelligence to Improve Breast Cancer Treatment
• (Digital & Health) September 8, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. New research published this week in the journal Radiology found that a deep-learning (DL) system developed by Google performs on par with radiologists at detecting active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) using chest radiographs. Google Deep Learning Model Detects Tuberculosis On Par With Radiologists
• (Digital & Tech) September 8, 2022. Siddharth Tiwari, Brookings. It takes me less than 15 seconds to hit “I Agree” to the standard terms and conditions whenever I download an app. Whether I am impatient or just oblivious to the value of the data that I am giving away, I am not alone in this act. All over the world, billions of consumers and businesses are doing the same–giving away their data to be used by other agents for a slew of unintended purposes. I realize now that upfront consent gives away my data for good. But should I care? Should society care about it? Give people control of their data
• (Global sanctions) September 8, 2022. Charles Lichfield, Maia Nikoladze, and Castellum.AI, Atlantic Council. In this edition of the Global Sanctions Dashboard, we look at the recently expanded sanctions against Iran just as negotiations over a potential US return to the Iran nuclear deal reach their endgame. We also take a long-overdue trip south to assess the effectiveness of sanctions in tackling the illegal drug trade. Russia remains an inescapable focus, though not entirely for predictable reasons. The busiest sanctioning entity this summer has been Russia itself. The country does, of course, remain the prime target of Western sanctions. For more on that, take a look at our brand-new Russia Sanctions Database, which tracks Western sanctions against Russian entities and individuals—and highlights where gaps still remain. Global Sanctions Dashboard: Sanctioning soars across the board
• (Intelligence) September 8, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. Declassifying intelligence to defuse Russian narratives has “played a very effective role” in the months-long war in Ukraine, according to the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, particularly when it’s part of a broader strategy. But its usefulness has limits when it comes to cyber threat intelligence. Sharing Secrets Has Been ‘Effective’ Against Russia, But the Tactic Has Limits, CIA Chief Says
• (Intelligence) September 8, 2022. Kseniya Kirillova, The Jamestown Foundation.  On August 20, two Russians and a Ukrainian were arrested in Albania as they tried to enter a defunct military factory in the city of Gramsci. According to Albanian authorities, the detainees were trying to film the factory, and one of them, Mikhail Zorin, sprayed a “nerve-paralytic” substance in a guard’s face (MediaZona, August 21). Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama revealed that the detainees are suspected of espionage (Аlbaniandailynews.com, August 21). Spy Scandal in Albania: Could Russian Intelligence Be Using Bloggers?
• (International Trade System) September 8, 2022. Shujiro Urata, East Asia Forum. The world faces unprecedented and difficult challenges, including US–China rivalry, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and supply chain disruptions. One consequence of these challenges is the possible division of the world economy into two or more political blocs not unlike the situation that prevailed before the Second World War. To avoid this, the rules-based international trading system needs re-invigoration to deal with the problems faced by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Re-invigorating the international trade system