Geostrategic environment (september 5, 2022)

Giudizio storico

EVIDENCE

  • September 2, 2022. Carlo Rebecchi intervista l’Ambasciatore Umberto Vattani, Giornale Diplomatico. L’eco internazionale della morte di Michail Sergeevič Gorbačëv non è destinata a spegnersi dato il rilevante ruolo che ha avuto nella storia. E questo nonostante che nel suo Paese si cerchi di tenerlo in un cono d’ombra, a continuare a dimenticarlo. Solo l’Occidente può ridare valore storico e politico all’ultimo presidente dell’URSS. Già consigliere diplomatico dei presidenti del Consiglio Ciriaco De Mita prima e Giulio Andreotti subito dopo, negli anni della glasnost e della perestroika, l’ambasciatore Umberto Vattani, colonna portante per anni della diplomazia italiana, è stato infatti il “canale di dialogo” tra il Governo italiano – convinto sostenitore delle riforme che andavano fatte nell’URSS – e il Cremlino, allora guidato da Mikhail Gorbaciov. L’ambasciatore Vattani è tuttora in contatto con Pavel Palazhchenko, interprete dell’ultimo presidente dell’URSS e oggi direttore della comunicazione della Fondazione Gorbaciov. Gorbaciov: amb. Vattani, “lo si può accostare a figura di Napoleone III”
  • September 3, 2022. Patricia Lewis, James Nixey, Chatham House. Arguably the worst year of the Cold War since the Cuban Missile Crisis was 1983, with three major incidents which escalated East-West tensions – and any one of them could have led to a full-scale war. Gorbachev’s complex legacy is beyond the popular belief

AROUND THE WORLD

Australia

  • September 5, 2022. Sasha Fegan, The Interpreter. One of the messiest and thorniest national security challenges is how to keep Australians safe from manipulative online content – now, and into the future. The matter cuts across departmental jurisdictions in a way few other national security issues do – taking in questions relating to freedom of speech, defamation law, commerce, defence and intelligence, to name just a few. Web3 is coming – with national security implications, too

Australia – Brazil

  • September 5, 2022. Daniel Flitton, The Interpreter. It’s a number that has almost doubled in the last five years alone. Today, more than 50,000 people born in Brazil call Australia home, according to the census results released this year. To get a better sense of the growing scale, in the mid-1990s the total number of Brazilians living in Australia barely nudged 3500.  If Brazil’s ambassador could seed a few ideas with the Prime Minister

Australia – China

Australia – Conflict Islands

  • September 5, 2022. , The Strategist. Until recently, many people hadn’t heard of the Conflict Islands. This group of 21 atolls lies within the Milne Bay Province of Papua New Guinea, between Milne Bay and Misima Island. They are within PNG’s border, subject to PNG’s legal system and foreign owned. They are also now for sale, subject to PNG’s legal system. Australia can help stop the Conflict Islands living up to their name

Bali process

Baltic Sea Region – NATO

  • September 5, 2022. Julian Pawlak, RUSI. The increasing use of the term ‘NATO lake’ in the context of Sweden and Finland’s accession is unhelpful and could have a number of undesirable consequences. No, Don’t Call the Baltic a ‘NATO Lake’

Canada

China

  • August 27 – September 2, 2022. Center for Advanced China Research. Weekly Report 4|85 8.27.22-9.2.22
  • August 30, 2022. Andreas Bøje Forsby, DIIS. Amid a wider deterioration of relations between China and the West since around 2018, the Chinese government has stepped up its use of economic coercion and other types of non-military coercive measures, targeting Western countries that challenge its core interests. The observed change is distinctive in both quantitative and qualitative terms as the Chinese authorities have not only employed coercive measures more frequently, but also across a wider set of policy objectives than previously. Using a revised dataset, the Brief offers new insights into these development trends, demonstrating how they are driven primarily by perceived violations of China’s expanding development interests. The Brief discusses the findings in the specific context of the Scandinavian countries which have also found themselves on the receiving end of China’s coercive diplomacy. The expansion of China’s coercive diplomacy

China – Russia

  • September 5, 2022. Guo Yuandan, Global Times. The Chinese and Russian navies may carry out a second joint naval patrol after the ongoing Vostok-2022 exercises, Chinese military experts said on Sunday. China and Russia may carry out joint naval patrol following Vostok-2022: expert
  • September 4, 2022. Leng Shumei and Fan Anqi, Global Times. China’s top legislator Li Zhanshu will start a four-nation trip later this week, which includes a visit to Russia, where he will attend the 7th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), according to an announcement on Sunday. The attendance at the EEF, a major Russian platform to promote global and regional cooperation, demonstrates the firm ties and close cooperation between China and Russia amid rising global geopolitical tensions, experts noted.    China’s top legislator to start four-nation trip, attend EEF in Russia in show of firm ties

China – Tibet

  • September 5, 2022. HRW. Chinese authorities are significantly increasing policing, including arbitrary collection of DNA from residents in many towns and villages throughout the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), Human Rights Watch said today. China: New Evidence of Mass DNA Collection in Tibet

Democratic Republic of the Congo

  • September 4, 2022. Douglas Amuli Ibale, Frédéric Docquier, Zainab Iftikhar, VOX. Despite some timid progress towards Sustainable Development Goals, Africa continues to lag behind in terms of economic development and extreme poverty. This has intrigued researchers and policymakers alike to identify policies that can be most effective for improving the economic situation on the continent. Focusing on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, this column argues that sustainable development is a multifaceted challenge and requires a sound combination of complementary policies that affect not only workers employed in the formal sector, but also and above all workers and entrepreneurs trapped in informality. O-ring patterns of spatial inequality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Europe 

  • September 5, 2022. Vitor Gaspar, Alfred Kammer, and  Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, IMF. Given the central role of fiscal policy in addressing both recent crises and future challenges, the call to reform fiscal governance in Europe resonates like never before. European Fiscal Governance: A Proposal from the IMF
  • September 2, 2022. Lavinia Steinfort, Andrew Cumbers, Social Europe. Europe’s fossil-fuel addiction is painfully clear amid the global energy crisis and the unfolding horrors in Ukraine. Yet municipalities across the continent have great potential to tackle climate change and energy dependencies. Using this potential will however require funds, power and know-how—to put the interests of residents over corporate revenues.  Municipalities can overcome Europe’s fossil-fuel addiction
  • September 5, 2022. Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, Social Europe. It is no coincidence that the economies which best combine economic dynamism and social inclusivity are those that collect the highest tax revenues as a proportion of national income. The Nordic countries in particular have shown remarkable resilience, in the face of external shocks and structural and technological challenges. Progressive taxation for a renewed social contract
  • September 5, 2022. Sheri Berman, Social Europe. Anyone following European politics is inundated by talk of crisis: the decline of the mainstream centre-right and centre-left parties which stabilised European party systems for decades; the rise of anti-establishment, xenophobic, populist parties; the fragmentation and stagnation of western-European governments; ‘Brexit’ in the United Kingdom, and the rise of autocratic leaders in Hungary and other parts of eastern Europe. Who is to blame? Citizens, elites and democracy

India

  • September 4, 2022. Harsh V. Pant, ORF. In this day and age of fluid partnerships among nations, military exercises have taken on a significant role in signaling intent. Global economic and political disruption has given joint military maneuvers among states a new edge. Who exercises with whom is an important marker of strategic partnerships. And Indian military has become one of the most active in this realm, showcasing not only its own expanding capabilities but also a political willingness to work with like-minded countries in delivering public goods. With one of the most capable military forces, it is incumbent upon New Delhi to use them as part of its diplomatic outreach. As such, the enhanced momentum of military exercises being undertaken by India has not been surprising; in fact, it has become a routine affair now. But New Delhi’s decision to send a contingent of the Indian Army for the Vostok 2022 military drill in Russia’s Far East from September 1-7 has raised eyebrows worldwide, particularly in the West that is trying to isolate Moscow after the Russian aggression against Ukraine.  Vostok-22: Challenges of Diplomatic Promiscuity
  • September 3, 2022.  Jose Ma Luis Montesclaros, East Asia Forum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lauded India’s food subsidies for their role in helping minimise the impacts of COVID-19 on food and economic insecurity. India avoided any increase in extreme poverty during the pandemic, whereas a March 2022 report by the Asian Development Bank notes that ASEAN member states saw an increase of 4.7 million people living in extreme poverty. Craving India’s food security success

India – Bangladesh

  • September 4, 2022. Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Prarthana Sen, ORF. Sheikh Hasina’s much-anticipated visit to India from 5-8 September is expected to unfold a new chapter in India–Bangladesh bilateral ties. What makes her visit more special is the fact that it comes in acceptance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to commemorate the Golden Jubilee of the diplomatic ties between the two countries. It will be Hasina’s first visit since the outbreak of COVID-19. The ‘Golden Chapter’ of India-Bangladesh diplomacy

Israel

  • August 31, 2022. Tomer Fadlon, Esteban Klor, INSS. Economic uncertainty has increased in recent months following the macroeconomic figures published by the major economies. The return of inflation, the supply chain crisis, and the war in Ukraine are leaving their mark on the global economy and arouse concern among both politicians and central banks. In contrast to most of the world’s countries, Israel seems like an island of economic stability: inflation is relatively low, and while Western countries are posting negative growth, second-quarter growth in Israel exceeded the expectations. Yet despite the positive data, the slowdown among Israel’s main trading partners is expected to affect the local economy, which will have to contend with a challenging economic environment in the coming months. The Israeli Economy in an Uncertain Global Environment

Japan

  • September 5, 2022. East Asia Forum. Japan ‘crossed the Rubicon’ after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Unlike eight years ago when Russia annexed Crimea, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government has quickly joined economic and financial sanctions against Russia with Western countries. Japan also provided financial, humanitarian and even material support to Ukraine despite Russia’s threat of blackmail through cutting off its energy supplies. Japan goes all in with the West after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but big strategic choices remain
  • September 4, 2022. Yoshihide Soeya, East Asia Forum. As leader of the dovish faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kōchikai, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida claims that his disposition in foreign policy is essentially liberal. But in practice, Kishida looks to have inherited the conservative agenda of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe. Japan navigates around Shinzo Abe’s Japanese foreign policy legacy
  • September 4, 2022. Sheila A Smith, East Asia Forum. Japan has gone all-in with the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The strategic consequences for Tokyo are considerable. Japan’s long-running efforts to conclude a formal peace agreement with its northern neighbour have come to an end. Japan doubles down on defending the post-war order

Libya

  • August 31, 2022. Ahlam Chemlali, DIIS. Exactly how the EU migration politics shapes gendered experiences and the ways in which border violence manifest in North African borderlands remains unexplored. DIIS researcher Ahlam Chemlali asks how gender and constructions of victimhood play part in context of border control and externalization in new spaces of transit. Understanding Gendered Border Violence in Transit: The Case of Libya

Pakistan

  • September 5, 2022. A local jihadist group and a violent protest movement are driving renewed sectarian strife in Pakistan. To prevent a slide back into violence, Islamabad should ensure those inciting or perpetrating violent acts are prosecuted while denying hardliners the civic space to propagate their hatred. A New Era of Sectarian Violence in Pakistan

Russia

  • September 5, 2022. Gustavo de Souza, Haishi “Harry” Li, Yuan Mei, Naiyuan Hu, VOX. Since the invasion of Ukraine, several countries have imposed trade sanctions against Russia. This column investigates the tradeoff for the sanctioning countries between reducing Russia’s war capability and the potential harm to their own economies. The tradeoff is non-trivial: the sanctions reduce both Russian exports and the sanctioning country’s imports, as goods cannot be fully substituted for non-sanctioned goods, so both countries incur economic losses. The optimal sanctions depend on the sanctioning country’s willingness to pay for sanctions, i.e. the amount of own economic loss it is willing to incur per unit of Russian loss. (Trade) war and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions
  • September 2, 2022. Nick Childs, IISS. Russia’s latest maritime doctrine is ambitious but is it realistic given the country’s fleet recapitalisation challenges? Russia’s new maritime doctrine: adrift from reality?

Russia – Ukraine

  • September 4, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast. The pace of the counteroffensive will likely change dramatically from day to day as Ukrainian forces work to starve the Russians of necessary supplies, disrupt their command and control, and weaken their morale even as counteroffensive ground assaults continue. The Russians will occasionally counterattack and regain some lost ground and will of course conduct likely fierce artillery and air attacks against liberated settlements and advancing Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian forces have made substantial enough progress to begin evoking more realistic commentary from the Russian milbloggers, who had been hewing very closely to the Kremlin’s optimistic rhetoric until today. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4

Turkey – Syria

  • September 4, 2022. Gallia Lindenstrauss, Carmit Valensi, INSS. Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and competition. These two processes appear to be contradictory, given that the Syrian regime opposes existing Turkish control of Syrian territories, and does not wish to see this control broadened. On the other hand, this may be a calculated Turkish move that aims to show the Turkish public a concerted multi-faceted effort to confront both the Kurdish underground and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Discussion of events in northern Syria and the web of Syrian and Turkish interests can be used to assess the question, which trend will prevail in Turkish-Syrian relations: normalization or escalation? War or Peace? Turkish Moves in Syria

UK

UK – Australia

  • September 5, 2022.  and , ASPI. Later today, either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will be declared the winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest and the next prime minister of the United Kingdom. Whoever takes the honours, and whatever tribulations they face in the months ahead, we mustn’t lose sight of Australia’s vital and deepening strategic partnership with the UK. Whoever its PM, the UK is a vital partner for Australia

TOPICS

Cybersecurity

Defense – Military – Security

Global governance – Cities

Global governance – Climate change & Community monitoring

  • August 31, 2022. Mikkel Funder, DIIS. Addressing climate change, biodiversity loss and other environmental challenges requires collaboration between different kinds of knowledge producers and knowledge systems. One aspect of this is so-called community monitoring, which in recent years has gathered momentum as a way to monitor environmental change and the status of natural resources. In community monitoring, the tracking of environmental trends and associated decision-making is carried out fully or partly by local community members rather than external “experts”. Community-led monitoring: Co-producing knowledge on environmental change

Global governance – Climate finance

  • September 5, 2022. Charmi Mehta, ORF. The international community has been engaged in negotiations around climate finance for three decades now, and working definitions continue to assign the role of funder to advanced economies, and that of recipient, to emerging ones. This brief makes a case for expanding such narrow definitions. It calls on countries such as India to re-imagine not only the idea of climate finance but also the mechanisms of raising funds and the channels for disbursing them. The aim should be to ensure that India builds financial resilience to serve its development needs, enabling the country to be a frontrunner in global efforts to decarbonise. Re-imagining Climate Finance

Global governance – Energy

  • September 5, 2022. Frank Jotzo, East Asia Forum. Energy is high on the G20 agenda. The need to cut carbon emissions quickly and sharply is becoming increasingly urgent. Fortunately, it is becoming clearer how the global zero-carbon energy transition can be done technologically. Charging up on energy for the G20 summit

Global governance – Financial crises

  • September 5, 2022. , Project Syndicate, The Strategist. The world needs to prepare for a cascade of financial crises across emerging and developing economies. The writing is already on the wall, with Bangladesh, Ghana, Pakistan and Sri Lanka currently queuing at the International Monetary Fund’s door. Wealthier countries must now equip the IMF—the world’s financial firefighter-in-chief—to prevent and manage the spread of crises. They could start by ensuring that the fund has the resources to stop lower-income economies adopting beggar-thy-neighbour policies that destroy other countries’ livelihoods and threaten political and economic stability. Is the world’s financial firefighter ready?

Global governance – Transnational crime

  • September 2, 2022. Marina Caparini, SIPRI. In September 2021 United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world stands at an ‘inflection point’, facing a stark choice between ‘breakdown’ and ‘breakthrough’. Societies and the planet are at risk from the compounding effects of climate change, increasing armed conflict, pandemics, and rising hunger, poverty, injustice and exclusion. Transnational organized crime: A threat to global public goods

Terrorism

  • September 5, 2022. Lawfare. Mapping the travel geography of terrorist networks can help expose how they operate internationally. Olivier Walther, Joseph Padron, and Jason Scheuer of the University of Florida and Rafael Prieto Curiel of the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna take a close look at the 9/11 plot and find that terrorists who belonged to the same operational cell did not necessarily live in the same place at the same time. However, their itineraries closely matched their organizational structure. Distinct travel patterns and strong social ties not only made the 9/11 travel network resilient but also essentially allowed the 19 hijackers to hide in plain sight while being very mobile. Geography Lessons From the 9/11 Terrorist Network

in collaboration with The Science of Where Magazine

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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