Geostrategic environment (september 27, 2022)

THINKING COMPLEX

The future is already present. We write, with the freedom of intellectuals, a daily memo for new ruling classes.

We live in a historical moment of great delicacy and, at the same time, full of great possibilities. Because today, in the growing complexity and interrelationship of historical dynamics, we are called upon to choose. We have, all together, the responsibility to understand the geostrategic movements in which we are immersed and to help govern them politically.

As complexity grows, so do the risks. What we can no longer afford, as we did after the implosion of the Soviet Union, is to think of history only in a linear, predictable, competitive way. We can no longer apply our established certainties to a reality of which we are a part and which exceeds us.

The issue is no longer the antagonism between state and market, or the division of the world into opposing blocs (as is happening). Today, we need paths of ‘competitive cooperation’ and to initiate substantive dialogues on the great issues that affect all humanity. We have not eliminated war from our lives, and this is a defeat for everyone: we must condemn those who invade (most recently, Russia in Ukraine) but we must also initiate paths of profound self-criticism of democratic systems that have not been able to make the world a better place in recent decades. We are not saying, of course, that there are no substantial distinctions, in terms of freedom and rights, between different institutional forms.

Moral appeals are no longer enough, although we acknowledge Pope Francis’ clear ‘moral leadership’. What is needed is a rethought and refounded politics, the talent for mediation and negotiation (power relations continue and will continue to exist) and the strength of historical vision.

We have begun, from these pages, to reason on the new forms of the ‘national interest’ in a framework of multi-bi-lateralism, of regionalisation of international relations, of the progressive passage from globalisation (top-down model) to glocalisation (win-win process that takes into account the need to politically govern the passage of planetary dynamics in the territories).

(by M.E.)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

• (Cities) September 26, 2022. Steven Bosacker, GMF. After a year of research and working alongside 12 cities—six from Europe, six from the United States—on a project appropriately named Cities Fortifying Democracy, there are at least seven areas where local democracy can be vulnerable but where timely and dedicated actions will undoubtedly strengthen it. Seven Issues that Need Attention to Keep Local Democracy Strong
• (Climate Change & Sustainability) September 27, 2022. Allison Lampert and Tim Hepher, Reuters. A United Nations body has begun global talks to hammer out a consensus on reducing airline emissions in the face of lingering discord over climate change and the impact of war in Ukraine. The 193-nation International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) assembly, held every three years, is the first since COVID-19 put pressure on policymakers to speed up reforms. Nations seek aviation climate pact despite global tensions
• (Conflict Stabilisation) September 26, 2022. Isadora Gotts, Hope Kilmurry, Simon Rynn and Henry Smith, RUSI. Despite early optimism, many countries that have received international stabilisation support from the late 1990s to the present have gone on to experience further instability. The patchy track record of international stabilisation initiatives poses questions on whether failures to build lasting stability are attributable to stabilisation doctrine itself, to the difficulties of applying it in the real world, or wider political challenges at home and abroad. International Conflict Stabilisation: Assessing Progress and Future Prospects
• (Cryptocurrencies) September 26, 2022. Parma Bains, Fabiana Melo, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, IMF. Unbacked crypto assets are the oldest and most popular type of crypto assets, relying not on any backing asset for value but instead on supply and demand. They were originally developed to democratize payments but are mostly used for speculation. Crypto assets were designed to disintermediate financial services, but centralized entities, such as exchanges and wallet providers, offer key functions to users and sustain the necessity of trust in one or several entities. At present, many of these entities are not covered by existing conduct, prudential, or payment regulations and can generate risks to market integrity, market conduct, and potential financial stability. We recommend that global bodies work to develop common taxonomies that can inform global and cross-sectoral standards while improving data insights. Standards should be risk-based, with greater requirements on entities and activities that generate more risk. Crypto asset service providers that deliver core functions and generate key risks should be licensed, registered, or authorized. Regulating the Crypto Ecosystem: The Case of Unbacked Crypto Assets
• (Cryptocurrencies) September 26, 2022. Parma Bains, Fabiana Melo, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, IMF. Stablecoins have experienced periods of rapid growth, accelerated links with traditional finance. Without proper regulation, contagion risks to wider financial sector will increase. Global regulation for stablecoins should be comprehensive, consistent, risk-based, flexible, and focus on their structural features and use. Requirements on stablecoins should cover the entire ecosystem and all its key functions, and there should be additional oversight for systemic stablecoin arrangements. In markets where risks are growing quickly, authorities should take immediate action by using all the tools at their disposal. This note provides key elements that should feature in any regulatory arrangement. For effective implementation, domestic and international collaboration are key. Regulating the Crypto Ecosystem: The Case of Stablecoins and Arrangements
• (Cybersecurity) September 27, 2022. Jason Healey, Olivia Grinberg, Lawfare. The nations of the world agreed to politically binding norms for cyber conduct just in time to have them undermined by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The issue is not just Russian cyber operations against civilian infrastructure, but Ukrainian patriotic hacking with clear encouragement, if not coordination, from state officials. While government support for patriotic hacking is not unprecedented, the Ukrainian campaign stands in stark violation of recently-agreed-to norms on state behavior in cyberspace, as well as the foreign policy positions of NATO members and the European Union.  ‘Patriotic Hacking’ is No Exception
• (Cybersecurity) September 27, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Threat actors have recently conducted phishing campaigns using Microsoft Sway and used the platform to distribute malware within organizations. Microsoft Sway Pages Weaponized to Perform Phishing and Malware Delivery
• (Cybersecurity) September 27, 2022. Rich Turner, Infosecurity. The cybersecurity industry is predictably abuzz following the Uber security incident first reported on September 15. This concerns how an (allegedly) 17-year-old attacker was apparently able to hack the ridesharing giant’s IT infrastructure and acquire access to user data, as well as access vulnerabilities reported to Uber’s HackerOne account. It’s important to note that this was not a breach that could have been avoided by a single technology solution. Nor is it one in which a single person, company or provider was to blame. Meaningful Learnings from the Uber Breach
• (Cybersecurity) September 27, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Security operations (SecOps) teams are struggling to respond to dozens of cybersecurity incidents every single day, according to a new report from Trellix. Global Firms Deal with 51 Security Incidents Each Day
• (Cybersecurity) September 27, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The UK’s privacy regulator has announced its intention to fine TikTok £27m over breaches of the country’s data protection laws. TikTok Facing £27m UK Regulatory Fine
• (Cybersecurity) September 27, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The Russian government is planning a major new cyber-attack campaign on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine and its allies as winter approaches, Kyiv has warned. Ukraine Predicts “Massive” Russian Cyber Assault
• (Cybersecurity) September 26, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Wearable pioneer Fitbit has revealed a new clause that will require users to adopt a Google account for logins next year. Fitbit Increases Security Requirements, Mandates Google Login From 2023
• (Cybersecurity) September 26, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. A large–scale operation that reportedly stole millions of dollars from credit cards from 2019 to earlier this year has been exposed by cybersecurity company ReasonLabs. ReasonLabs Unveils Multimillion Dollar Global Credit Card Scam
• (Cybersecurity) September 26, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Security researchers from Kaspersky have spotted a new series of campaigns focusing on the malware tool they named NullMixer. Hackers Use NullMixer and SEO to Spread Malware More Efficiently
• (Cybersecurity) September 26, 2022. Steve Bradford, Infosecurity. With universities welcoming a new student intake this month, one thing they must be prepared for more than ever are cyber-attacks.  #HowTo: Keep Universities Secure in Today’s Cyber Threat Environment
• (Cybersecurity) September 26, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Ransomware affiliates appear to be dabbling with new data destruction capabilities in a bid to evade detection, increase their chances of getting paid and minimize the opportunities for the development of decryptor toolst. Ransomware Affiliates Adopt Data Destruction
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 27, 2022. Daniel Fata and Jerry McGinn, Defense News. With strong allied military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, one of most debated issues on both sides of the Atlantic is whether there is enough defense industrial capacity between North America and Europe to meet the current and future defense capability needs of NATO and its member states. How to ensure the US and its allies have the weapons they need
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 26, 2022.  Zamone Perez, Defense News. The Army is dispatching two High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Latvia for the country’s national combat readiness exercises, according to a statement from U.S. Army Europe and Africa. Soldiers manning HIMARS head to Latvia for exercises
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 26, 2022. Andrew Chuter, Defense News. Britain may be in economic turmoil right now but that hasn’t stopped Defense Secretary Ben Wallace emphasizing the new government’s pledge to effectively double spending on the military by 2030. Despite economic woes, UK leaders tout massive defense-spending hike
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 26, 2022. Hyung-Jin Kim, The Associated Press, Defense News. The aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and its carrier strike group launched drills with South Korean warships off the Korean Peninsula’s east coast on Monday in their first such training in five years, a day after North Korea test-fired a short-range ballistic missile in a possible response to the exercise. USS Ronald Reagan, South Korean ships launch drills
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 26, 2022. Joel Hickman, Defense One. The long-established international taboo against the use of nuclear weapons has remained in place for nearly 80 years. For decades, the doctrines and postures of the world’s nuclear powers have remained relatively stable and predictable—with the possible exception of North Korea, the newest member of the club.  Edging Towards the Nuclear Abyss
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 26, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. Walking into the Air and Space Forces Association’s Air, Space & Cyber this year, conference goers were immediately greeted with a large display from Google Cloud—a contender for the Pentagon’s major tactical cloud program and one of the conference’s major sponsors. On the floor, SAIC’s tower was right behind the Air Force Research Laboratory’s booth, like a beacon of would-be connectivity.  Autonomous Systems Took Center Stage At AFA
• (Digital &  Tech) September 26, 2022. Aylin Caliskan and Ryan Steed, Brookings. Scientists have long been developing machines that attempt to imitate the human brain. Just as humans are exposed to systemic injustices, machines learn human-like stereotypes and cultural norms from sociocultural data, acquiring biases and associations in the process. Our research shows that bias is not only reflected in the patterns of language, but also in the image datasets used to train computer vision models. As a result, widely used computer vision models such as iGPT and DALL-E 2 generate new explicit and implicit characterizations and stereotypes that perpetuate existing biases about social groups, which further shape human cognition. Managing the risks of inevitably biased visual artificial intelligence systems
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Kate Duffy, Business Insider. Natural-gas is erupting like geysers on the surface of the Baltic Sea above the damaged Nord Stream pipelines, images from the Danish military show. VIDEO: Leaking Nord Stream Natural-Gas Erupts Like Geysers in Baltic
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Al Jazeera. Sudden and unexplained gas leaks detected in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines from Russia to Germany have prompted investigations by European countries into the cause amid fear of possible sabotage. Nord Stream pipeline leaks: What happened, what’s the impact?
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Leila Nezirevic, Anadolu Agency. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Tuesday said that it is hard to imagine that the gas leaks on the Russian Nord Stream pipelines are a “coincidence.”. Hard to imagine Nord Stream gas leaks ‘coincidence’: Danish premier
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Anna Ringstrom and Stine Jacobsen, Reuters. Europe was investigating leaks in two Russian gas pipelines that churned up the Baltic Sea with bubbles on Tuesday and raised concerns from Copenhagen to Moscow about sabotage on infrastructure at the heart of a European energy standoff. Gas leaks in Russian pipelines to Europe stoke sabotage fears
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Merlyn Thomas, BBC News. European countries are investigating three mystery leaks in two major gas pipelines between Russia and Europe. Nord Stream: Mystery leaks in Russia gas pipelines spark warnings
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Business Insider. German officials reportedly believe the crucial Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines connecting Russia to Europe have been sabotaged. German Officials Suspect Nord Stream Pipelines Sabotaged: Reports
• (Geo-energy) September 27, 2022. Al Jazeera. European Union member states are racing to investigate sudden and unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea, infrastructure at the heart of an energy stand-off between Moscow and the bloc. Poland, Denmark fear ‘sabotage’ over Russian gas pipeline leaks
• (Global Governance) September 23, 2022. Alan Wm. Wolff, PIIE. State of Multilateral Governance in Times of Increasing Unilateralism
• (Health & Digital) September 27, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Health have developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-based tool that can identify people who inject drugs using EHR data faster and more accurately than standard methods. New Machine-Learning Tool Identifies Injection Drug Use Using EHR Data
• (Health & Digital) September 26, 2022. Mark Melchionna, Health IT Analytics. Researchers from the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Florida College of Medicine are creating a set of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to determine patient risk for various rare diseases. Researchers to Create AI Algorithms That Predict Patient Risk for Rare Diseases
• (IAEA General Conference 2022) September 26, 2022. IAEA. General Conference: Day 1 Highlights
• (JCPOA) September 27, 2022. Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera. Talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have restarted over a probe into nuclear material found at nuclear sites in Iran, which has been at the centre of the stall in efforts to restore the country’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Iran and IAEA restart talks amid nuclear deal deadlock
• (JCPOA) September 27, 2022. IRNA. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi has declared that the UN nuclear watchdog has resumed talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran on outstanding issues. IAEA chief declares resumption of talks with Iran
• (Muslim World) September 27, 2022. Usaama al-Azami, Al Jazeera. The passing of Yusuf al-Qaradawi in Qatar on Monday marks the end of an era in contemporary Islam. Al-Qaradawi was one of the world’s most influential Muslim scholars, and a vocal advocate for Palestinian liberation as well as for the Arab revolutions of 2011. His passing at the age of 96 brings to a close the career of one of the most important Muslim scholars of the last century. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim scholar who influenced millions
• (UNGA 2022) September 26, 2022. UN News. After a week of discussions on Member States’ priorities, challenges and impacts, the high-level portion of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly concluded on Monday, with the presiding official observing that the sheer number of participants indicated the importance of the General Debate in international affairs. In a world of new challenges, ‘we need to build on what unites us’, Assembly President tells UN Member States
• (UNGA 2022) September 26,  2022. UN News. The Permanent Representative of the Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the UN said on Monday that global security is in its worst state since the Second World War, owing to the high-handedness of some countries attempting to replace the international order centered on the UN system with one “governed by unilateral and exclusive Western values”. DPRK lashes out against international system governed by ‘exclusive Western values’
• (UNGA 2022) September 26, 2022. UN News. The current chaotic state of the world – from wars to the spread of terrorism and climate-induced disasters – is the result of hegemonic, wealth-hoarding countries and their ambitions to subjugate others, “which Syria knows only too well,” Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad said on Monday. ‘The war on Syria has failed,’ Foreign Minister says in UN speech, denouncing the West’s hegemonic ambitions
• (UNGA 2022) September 26, 2022. UN News. Amid the challenges facing the world today – from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change and conflicts – Canada is convinced of the need for more multilateralism, not less, as well as a stronger and more effective United Nations.  Today’s crises highlight need for more multilateralism, stronger UN, says Canada’s Foreign Minister
• (WTO) September 26, 2022. Alan Wm. Wolff, WTO. Reform of the World Trade Organization

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan) September 26, 2022. Sophie Mae Berman and Yelena Biberman, Atlantic Council. In July, the US Department of State launched the US-Afghan Consultative Mechanism in partnership with the United States Institute of Peace, Atlantic Council, Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, and Sisterhood is Global Institute. As the Taliban continues to strip women and vulnerable groups inside Afghanistan of their human rights, the Mechanism intends to provide international platforms for Afghan women who are scattered around the world, track human rights violations, and identify ways that the international community can support inclusive peace in Afghanistan. To support Afghan women activists, prioritize local knowledge over numbers
• (Alaska) September 27, 2022. Al Jazeera. A US Coast Guard vessel on routine patrol in the Bering Sea off Alaska has reported an encounter with a Chinese guided missile cruiser which was later discovered to be travelling with two other Chinese naval vessels and four Russian Navy ships. US patrol spots Chinese, Russian naval ships off Alaskan island
• (Armenia – Azerbaijan) September 26, 2022. Laurence Broers, Chatham House. The recent large-scale cross-border attacks inside Armenia by Azerbaijan, with reports estimating at least 286 people killed from both sides and hundreds more wounded, highlights the wider picture of a collapsing Russian-led security order in Eurasia. Is Azerbaijan planning a long-term presence in Armenia?
• (Armenia – Azerbaijan – Russia) September 26, 2022. Ivana Stradner, FDD. Fresh hostilities broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region last week. As a result, nearly 100 people have been killed in the busiest week of violence in the region since 2020. Azerbaijan has likely been pushing its advantage knowing that Russia, the traditional guarantor of stability in the region, is distracted by its invasion of Ukraine. Time to Expose Putin as an Unreliable Ally
• (Australia) September 27, 2022. William Leben and Ulas Yildirim, The Strategist. Despite the inevitably heavy redactions, the Department of Defence’s brief for the incoming government makes for interesting reading, including its section on climate change. Aggressive action required to meet Defence’s ambitious emissions-reduction target
• (Bangladesh) September 26, 2022. Lynne D. Sherburne-Benz, World Bank blogs. Despite the challenges of hosting almost a million of the Displaced Rohingya Population (DRPs) since 2017, the government of Bangladesh together with its humanitarian and development partners have developed a robust system that has resulted in effective social service delivery for both the DRPs and the host community.  – How great partnerships can lead to effective service delivery in Bangladesh (worldbank.org)
• (China) September 27, 2022. Stephan Robin, The Strategist. Climate change has been, and will continue to be, a persistent and growing challenge for many parts of the world. Over recent weeks there has been a steady flow of striking imagery of the impacts of extreme weather in China—fishing ships grounded on the Poyang Lake floor, the outskirts of city districts inundated with flood waters, and the drying up of parts of the Yangtze. In isolation, each of those climate hazards is a reminder of the vulnerability of human systems to environmental changes. Together, however, they constitute an urgent monition of the serious consequences of climate change for national security interests. China facing devastating impacts from climate change
• (China) September 27, 2022. Global Times. As the drought in the Yangtze River basin continues, Central China’s Hunan Province has become one of the most-affected areas. According to official statistics, as of Sunday, all 122 cities and counties in the province have reached the medium drought level or higher, and 90 counties and urban areas have been hit by extreme drought. 90 of 122 areas in C China’s Hunan hit by extreme drought that is likely to develop in the coming week
• (Colombia) September 26, 2022. Riccardo Puliti, World Bank blogs. In the 1990s, Colombian cities were grappling with a wide range of transport challenges, most of which are all too familiar to the residents of urban areas around the world: chronic traffic congestion, alarming rates of road fatalities, and inadequate public transit. In a country where about three quarters of the population lives in cities, the shortcomings of the urban transport system had far-reaching consequences on economic productivity  and kept many people away from jobs, education, healthcare, or other essential services. What Colombia can teach us about sustainable transport
• (Democratic Republic of the Congo) September 26, 2022. Michelle Gavin, CFR. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is auctioning the licensing rights for dozens of oil and gas blocks, opening up parts of the world’s second-largest rain forest to exploitation. What’s Behind the DRC’s Decision to Auction Off Some of Its Rain Forest?
• (Finland) September 27, 2022. Sumeyye Dilara Dincer, Anadolu Agency. The Finnish Border Guard has recommended building fences on its eastern frontier with Russia to prevent people from crossing the border after Russia’s announcement of partial mobilization on Wednesday. Finland mulls building barriers on its border with Russia
• (France – Armenia – Azerbaijan) September 27, 2022. Alaattin Doğru, Anadolu Agency. French President Emmanuel Macron met Monday with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Paris. French president meets with Armenian prime minister in Paris
• (Germany) September 27, 2022. Anadolu Agency. The German government is considering sending civil servants to home office this winter due to the worsening energy crisis, local media reported on Tuesday.  German gov’t mulls sending civil servants to home office amid energy crisis: Report
• (Haiti) September 27, 2022. Al Jazeera. Officials have warned of “new levels of desperation” in Haiti as multiple crises have been compounded by recent protests, the looting of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid and an ongoing “siege” of a key fuel terminal. Haiti facing ‘humanitarian catastrophe’, says UN envoy
• (Iran) September 26, 2022. Sayeh Isfahani, Atlantic Council. The smell of smoke wafts through the air. My father and I have returned from protests, and we are standing on the rooftop of my parents’ flat in central Tehran to have a clear view of the streets. It was June 20, 2009. One of the neighbors rushes up the stairs and, out of breath, tells us: “They’ve killed Neda.”. ‘Women, life, liberty’: Iran’s future is female
• (Italy) September 27, 2022. Valeria Giannotta, Anadolu Agency. Meloni will be the leader of the new government and the first female Prime Minister in the history of Italy. ‘I’m Giorgia’ is the winner of Italian elections
• (Italy) September 27, 2022. Jan Erik Surotchak, International Republican Institute. “Judging from news reports on the conservative election victory in Italy, one might come away thinking that the country is returning to its fascist history. In fact, the new governing coalition under Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party marks a turn away from populist upheaval that has gripped the country over the past several years and back toward the mainstream conservatism of the past few decades. No, Italy’s Democracy Isn’t Doomed
• (Italy) September 26, 2022. Dario Cristiani, GMF. All the attention had been and will remain on Fratelli d’Italia, led by Giorgia Meloni, which came in first with more than 26 percent of the votes, up massively from its 4.3 percent in 2018. It is highly likely that she or someone else from the party will head the next government. Why Giorgia Meloni Will Not Change Italy’s Foreign Policy
• (Japan) September 27, 2022. Zaheena Rasheed, Al Jazeera. Shinzo Abe was not his assassin’s preferred target. Investigators say Tetsuya Yamagami, who fatally shot Japan’s longest-serving prime minister on July 8, had initially wanted to kill the leader of the Unification Church — a South-Korean religious sect that the 41-year-old blames for his family’s financial ruin. But the COVID-19 pandemic got in the way. The church linked to Abe’s killing, Japan’s political troubles
• (Japan) September 26, 2022.  Jiro Yamaguchi, East Asia Forum. The assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has shed light on a concerning relationship between the Unification Church and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The suspected assassin, Tetsuya Yamagami, harboured a grudge against the church because of the significant donations made by his mother that left his family bankrupt. Abe’s state funeral sours Kishida’s popularity
• (Japan) September 27, 2022. David Dolan and Elaine Lies, Reuters. Two months after he was assassinated, Shinzo Abe is still stirring controversy, evidence of how the polarising former premier’s legacy is shaping Japanese politics on everything from defence to monetary policy. Analysis: Shinzo Abe’s divisive legacy lingers in Japanese policy
• (Japan – Australia – India) September 27, 2022. Kyodo News. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed with his Australian and Indian counterparts on Tuesday to cooperate in achieving a free and open Indo-Pacific, a vision former leader Shinzo Abe advocated. Japan vows to work with Australia, India for free, open Indo-Pacific
• (Japan – Russia) September 27, 2022. Al Jazeera. Japan has accused Russia of “unreasonable” behaviour and threatened “equivalent steps” after the FSB, the Russian federal security agency, detained a diplomat in the eastern port city of Vladivostok and accused him of being a spy. Japan lodges protest after Russia detains diplomat in Vladivostok
• (Kazakhstan – Russia) September 27, 2022. Ahmet Gencturk, Anadolu Agency. Kazakhstan will discuss the recent influx of Russian citizens to the country with Moscow, the country’s president said Tuesday. Kazakhstan to discuss recent influx of Russians to country with Moscow
• (Moldova) September 26, 2022. Dumitru Minzarari, The Jamestown Foundation. The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) government in Moldova is confronted with the largest popular dissent during its mandate, as thousands of people have gathered over the past few days to protest in front of parliament and the presidential administration building. These protests are seemingly a formidable challenge to the survival of the pro-European governing PAS. The protesters have even installed tents in front of parliament, which faces the Presidential Palace, giving the protesters a strategic advantage in laying siege to both institutions. The protesters have been mobilized by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor—who was issued an arrest warrant by the Moldovan authorities for his role in a $1 billion bank fraud scheme. He is hiding out in Israel. In truth, Shor is paying for the protesters transportation costs to the capital, their daily food and the organization of the protests, corrupting the economically strained citizens to sell their support (Ziarulnational.md, September 23; Newsmaker.md, September 25; Newsmaker.md, September 25). Gagauzia Elite Reveal Strong Signs of Russian ‘Capture’ in Moldova
• (Poland) September 27, 2022. Anadolu Agency. The Polish government has approved a proposal to freeze the price of the first 2,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity consumed by households in 2023. Poland to freeze electricity prices for households in 2023
• (Russia) September 27, 2022. Sophia Ankel, Business Insider. Russians are paying up to $27,000 to escape the country on private jets after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of his country’s reservists last week, The Guardian reported. Russians Paying $27,000 to Escape Country on Private Jets: Report
• (Russia – China) September 27, 2022. TASS. Russia and China have signed contracts for the deployment of Russia’s GLONASS stations in China and China’s Beidou system stations in Russia, the state corporation Roscosmos said in a news release on Tuesday. Russia, China sign contracts on mutual deployment of navigation stations
• (Russia – China – India) September 27, 2022. TASS. Russia hopes to develop cultural ties, including inter-museum exchanges with China, which has been waiting for opportunities to introduce Russian culture to its general public as well as with India, Special Representative of the Russian President for International Cultural Cooperation Mikhail Shvydkoy told Russian journalists on Tuesday. Russia intends to promote exchanges with China and India — special envoy
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Mark Cancian, CSIS. Vladimir Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization on September 21 signaled a major escalation of the war and caught the world’s attention. Putin was forced to do this because of battlefield reverses and a shortage of personnel. Other sources of personnel are drying up. What Does Russia’s ‘Partial Mobilization’ Mean?
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 21 address to the nation could prove to be one of his most fateful blunders in his disastrous war in Ukraine. In his 15-minute pre-recorded speech, Putin announced support for the referendums in four Ukrainian regions, declared partial mobilization in Russia, accused the West of aggressive “Russophobia” and threatened to use nuclear weapons. The Russian leader concluded by expressing confidence in the support of Russian citizens (Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 21). These propositions have proved to be delusions. Putin’s Botched Mobilization and Nuclear Non-Option
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Melinda Haring and Vladislav Davidzon, Atlantic Council. By the beginning of March, the Russian army had encircled Ukrainian port city Mariupol and wouldn’t allow civilians out. Russian planes began to wantonly destroy civilian targets, killing thousands of men, women, and children. The bustling and predominantly Russian-speaking port city of 460,000 had firmly rejected Vladimir Putin’s advances in 2014. Mariupol boasted all the modern amenities, from European tulips to a popular skating rink, and had begun to make a name for itself as an IT hub. It was now under siege. Ukrainian priest recounts escape from Russian siege of Mariupol
• (Sierra Leone) September 26, 2022. Suman Sachdeva, Brookings. Children who learn to read, write, and gain strong basic literacy and numeracy skills in the early grade years are more likely to be successful throughout their academic lives. Literacy levels are also correlated with economic, civic, health, and other quality of life measures for individuals and whole nations. Early-grade learning assessments spur Sierra Leone to strengthen foundational literacy and numeracy skills
• (Sudan) September 27, 2022. Mat Nashed, Al Jazeera. Nearly a year after backing a coup in Sudan, the feared paramilitary leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo is trying to sell himself as a useful partner for the pro-democracy groups that have been regularly protesting against the country’s military rule for months, his critics and some analysts say. Sudan coup leader bids to co-opt pro-democracy movement
• (Türkiye) September 27, 2022. Marc Pierini, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has pursued a balanced policy and tried to use its influence to facilitate contacts between the two countries. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has for years sought to keep one foot in the NATO camp and another in the Russian camp, an approach that was illustrated by Turkey’s acceptance of the Russian S-400 air defense system in July 2019. Yet the threats last week by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who partially mobilized Russian forces and implied he might use nuclear weapons, combined with Erdoğan’s electoral priorities, make Turkey’s foreign policy course harder to predict. Elastic Erdoğan
• (Türkiye) September 27, 2022. Yusuf Sahbaz, Anadolu Agency. Türkiye aims to become a new production and innovation center in the wind energy sector for the local region and Europe, the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Donmez said on Tuesday in Hamburg. Türkiye aims to become Europe’s new wind generation, innovation center: Minister
• (UK) September 26, 2022. RUSI. In the first episode of RUSI Journal Radio’s third season, Demi, Emma and Ed are joined by Dan Lomas, a Lecturer in Intelligence and Security Studies at Brunel University. Dan’s research specialises in the use of intelligence to support policymaking, and the history of the UK’s intelligence community. Episode 1: Transforming the UK Public’s Perception of Intelligence
• (UK) September 27, 2022. Karim El-Bar, Anadolu Agency. Millions of British people are being forced to take second jobs to make ends meet amid an escalating cost-of-living crisis, the BBC reported on Tuesday. Millions of Brits forced to take 2nd jobs amid cost-of-living crisis
• (Ukraine) September 27, 2022. Uri Dadush, Pauline Weil, Bruegel. The way to help Ukraine will be to assist in reconstruction and not place artificial impediments to immigration of those who have already suffered. Will Ukraine’s refugees go home?
• (USA) September 27, 2022. Servet Günerigök, Anadolu Agency. US President Joe Biden’s administration is set to hold a conference on nutrition and hunger at a time when many Americans are suffering from inflation and diet-related chronic diseases. Biden to host hunger conference as food insecurity, inflation hit many Americans
• (USA) September 26, 2022. Matthew Gregg and Robert Maxim, Brookings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) August jobs report showed a labor market that, while not as hot as earlier in the year, is still showing significant growth. But despite that growth, there remains serious variation in the economic health of different racial and ethnic groups. Namely, August’s unemployment rate for Native Americans was 4.9%—which, while significantly better than its early pandemic peak of 28.6%, is still over a percentage point higher than the national seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 3.8%. Native Americans are getting left behind in the remote work economy
• (USA) September 26, 2022. Norman Eisen and Sasha Matsuki, Brookings. In late June, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in a landmark decision grossly out of step with how Americans feel about abortion. Polling immediately following the Roe reversal showed it exacerbated already crashing public trust in the Court and its neutrality, further endangering a crucial democratic institution. Restoring faith in the Court is an essential undertaking in order to preserve our democratic institutions. Among the most discussed proposals to restore trust in the Court are tenure limits on justices. We favor them because they would help restore confidence in the institution as an independent judicial body insulated from partisan concerns and address the Court’s legitimacy crisis. Term limits—a way to tackle the Supreme Court’s crisis of legitimacy
• (USA) September 26, 2022. Adam Looney, Brookings. The Biden administration recently announced it will forgive roughly $500 billion in student debt. Up to $20,000 in debt will be forgiven for Pell Grant recipients and $10,000 for other borrowers. Borrowers whose income was under $125,000 ($250,000 if married) in either 2020 or 2021 are eligible. Does Biden’s student debt forgiveness achieve his stated goals?
• (USA – ASEAN) September 26, 2022. CSIS. What Does Russia’s ‘Partial Mobilization’ Mean?
• (USA – China) September 26, 2022. Elaine Dezenski, John Simon, Allie Dichiara, FDD. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013 as a trillion-dollar mega strategy to build infrastructure and influence across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. The BRI is a central aspect of President Xi Jinping’s vision for an ascendant China. It is meant to strengthen economic, political, and military linkages to Beijing through development, especially across the Global South. American Innovation Can Counter China’s BRI
• (USA – China) September 2022. Michael E. O’Hanlon, Melanie W. Sisson, and Caitlin Talmadge, Brookings. Ongoing disagreement between China and Taiwan about the desirability of unification and intensified competition between the United States and China are pressurizing the three-way relationship. Managing the risks of US-China war: Implementing a strategy of integrated deterrence
• (USA – Japan) September 27, 2022. Riyaz ul Khaliq, Anadolu Agency. US Vice President Kamala Harris was told by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo on Monday that “most important challenge for Japan and the US is to maintain peace and stability” in the Asia-Pacific region. Maintaining peace in region challenge to US-Japan alliance: Japanese premier
• (USA – Koreas – DMZ) September 27, 2022. Kyodo News. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to the Demilitarized Zone on the border of the two Koreas on Thursday to showcase her nation’s commitment to the defense of Seoul, a White House official said, an announcement that comes as Pyongyang continues provocative actions. U.S. vice president to visit DMZ amid North Korea provocations
• (USA – Latin America and the Carribean – China) September 26, 2022. Ryan C. Berg, CSIS. There are many reasons to believe democracy and democracy promotion are imperative in the great power competition with China, which is occurring with ever-greater intensity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The Importance of Democracy Promotion to Great Power Competition in Latin America and the Caribbean
• (US – Pacific Island Country Summit) Richard Herr, The Strategist. When the White House announced that President Joe Biden will host the US – Pacific Island Country Summit on 28–29 September, it noted that it’s the ‘first ever’ such meeting. This both focused attention on the importance the US attaches to repositioning its place in the Pacific island region and gave a Johnny-come-lately look for a country that has been a power in the region for more than 150 years. What to expect from Biden’s summit with Pacific island leaders
• (USA – Taiwan) September 26, 2022. Tim Willasey-Wilsey CMG, RUSI. The concept of strategic ambiguity has its advantages but also its perils. It means that a US president may have just a few hours to decide whether to go to war with China or to abandon Taiwan. The US should develop a more calibrated set of options to enable Beijing better to understand the risks of intervention. US Policy on Taiwan and the Perils of ‘Strategic Ambiguity’
• (USA – Taiwan) September 27, 2022. Hugh White, The Interpreter. The more often US President Joe Biden appears to abandon strategic ambiguity by saying quite clearly that America would go to war with China to defend Taiwan, the more difficult it becomes to dismiss what he says as a presidential fumble. That was not at all difficult the first time, especially when the White House moved so swiftly to affirm the US policy had not changed. It was harder to do the second and third times, because with each recurrence it became less plausible that Biden would continue to be so muddled on an issue of such importance. But it also seemed unlikely that the President would deliberately set himself up to be humiliatingly corrected by his own officials, as he was on each occasion when the White House issued the same “clarification”. Taiwan: Biden risks talking himself into a war he cannot win
• (Vietnam) September 27, 2022.  John Walsh, Trung Quang Nguyen and Burkhard Schrage, East Asia Forum. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam continues to increase, rising from US$11.57 billion in July to US$12.8 billion in August 2022, signalling the country’s recovery from COVID-19. The growth is partly due to Hanoi’s consistent efforts to provide a safe and welcoming environment for foreign business through Special Economic Zones (SEZs) — ensuring companies have access to a local workforce in favourable conditions. Vietnam fights for foreign investors
• (West Bank – Hezbollah – Iran) September 26, 2022. FDD. Hezbollah and Iran Are Destabilizing the West Bank