Geostrategic environment (september 20, 2022)

TODAY IN EVIDENCE

• Africa’s complex challenges and the importance of nuclear research and technologies. Messaoud Baaliouamer for SAIIA (Africa’s Nuclear Future: Increasing the Participation of Women and Youth);
• Considerations on Iran’s cyber attacks on Albania. Mark Montgomery writes for Foundation for Defense of Democracies (Iranian-backed attacks on Albania highlights need for Cyber Capacity Building);
• China attracts foreign investment. From Xinhua (China Focus: Strong appeal to foreign companies sustained by unwavering opening-up);
• NATO is drafting a strategic document on autonomous technologies. Lauren C. Williams writes for Defense One (NATO Readies Strategy To Steer Use Of Autonomy);
• Strategies in outer space. Cassandra Steer and Ulas Yildirim write for The Strategist (Australia should join the moratorium on anti-satellite missile tests);
• A new identity for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Timur Dadabaev writes for East Asia Forum (In search of a new identity for SCO);
• The technological competition between the US and China is central to the evolution of power relations in the coming decades. An interesting reflection from the think tank Center for Strategic & International Studies (What Can Patent Data Reveal about U.S.-China Technology Competition?);
• The war in Ukraine and Xi Jinping’s doubts. Pavel K. Baev writes for The Jamestown Foundation (Eurasian Summit of Hidden Tensions and Thin Pretenses);
• Guo Shengkun, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, met Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. From Xinhua (China, Russia hold meeting on law-enforcement, security cooperation)

TOPICS

• (Climate action & Sustainability) September 20, 2022. Robert Glasser, The Strategist. Leaders from across the region are convening in Brisbane this week at the Asia–Pacific Ministerial Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction. The meeting, co-hosted by Australia and the United Nations, will discuss ways to accelerate international efforts to reduce disaster risk. They have their work cut out for them. Simultaneous climate hazards are supercharging global systemic risk
• (Cybersecurity) September 20, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The threat actor responsible for hacking Uber last week is likely connected to the prolific Lapsus$ group, the firm has claimed. Uber Blames Lapsus$ for Breach
• (Cybersecurity) September 19, 2022. Justin Sherman, Atlantic Council. The number of cyber operations launched from Russia over the last few years is astounding, ranging from the NotPetya malware attack that cost the global economy billions, to the SolarWinds espionage campaign against dozens of US government agencies and thousands of companies. Untangling the Russian web: Spies, proxies, and spectrums of Russian cyber behavior
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Bradley Peniston, Defense One. CNO: Navy Is Equipping Ships with a Software Arsenal, Taking Lead on New Destroyer Design
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 20, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. The Air Force on Monday said the KC-46A Pegasus refueling tanker is now cleared to carry out all refueling missions around the world on all aircraft — with one exception. Air Force says KC-46 can refuel planes around the world — except one
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Emily Murphy, Defense News. The U.S. government’s research and development efforts should promote small experiments because if they fail, we learn something; and when they succeed, we can build on that success. Likewise, Congress needs to act now to keep one of the smallest and most successful R&D programs from disappearing Sept. 30 to ensure continued progress and access to critical industries and technologies.  Congress must act on Small Biz Innovation Research reauthorization
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022.  Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force said it selected five companies to help accelerate the development of its Advanced Battle Management System, as the service’s secretary, Frank Kendall, acknowledged that efforts to modernize command and control systems have proved more challenging than expected. US Air Force picks 5 companies to take on battle management challenges
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Joe Gould, Defense News. A select panel exploring a revamp of Pentagon budgeting is making “significant progress” with meetings and research efforts after some “organizational problems,” according to its chairman. Defense budget reform panel at work after ‘organizational problems’
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Vivienne Machi, Defense News. Switzerland has inked a deal to procure three dozen F-35A fighter jets, dodging a proposed popular referendum in the hopes of receiving the new jets by the end of the decade. Swiss leaders sign $6.25 billion contract for F-35 fighter jets
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. The Slovenian Ministry of Defence has announced the country’s government will cancel a deal to purchase 45 Boxer armored vehicles with related equipment and services for a total of €343.4 million ($343 million) from the intergovernmental Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR). Slovenia to scrap Boxer deal, seek other armored vehicles
• (Geo-Energy) September 19, 2022. Pierpaolo Cazzola, Columbia SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy. A new pressure point has been added to Europe’s existing climate mitigation imperative to decarbonize: an energy security driver to ensure that those cuts start with fossil fuel imports from Russia. For a time, natural gas, including in transport, was thought to be a bridge fuel on the road to greater dependence on biofuels to address climate change (IPCC 2021) and meet the ambition of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015). But the need for swift action on energy diversification following the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Birol 2022) has further spotlighted the need to limit global reliance on natural gas even in the near term. Biofuels for Transport: Feasibility of a Ramp-Up to Lessen Dependence on Russian Oil En Route to a Decarbonized Future
• (Global Economy) September 16, 2022. Policy Center for the New South. In the current context of persistent inflationary pressures and growing uncertainties about the economic outlook, many central banks have mainly focused on their mandate of price stability through more aggressive monetary policies. In addition, the growing concerns linked to climate change and inequalities have shaped the policy discussions related to expanding the traditional mandates of central banks (price stability and/or maximum sustainable employment) to take into account major ethical issues in the design and implementation of monetary policies such as climate change and inequalities. In this podcast, Otaviano Canuto, senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, shares his insights on the role of central banks in the current context and whether they should expand the monetary policy toolkit to include climate change and inequalities. Monetary policy, climate change and inequalities: should central banks expand their policy toolkit?
• (Health & Digital) September 19, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Harvard Medical School (HMS) and Stanford University researchers have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can detect disease within chest radiographs using natural language processing (NLP)-based clinical reports rather than relying on human annotations to “learn.”. Harvard, Stanford Develop Self-Supervised AI to Detect Disease Via X-ray

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan) September 19, 2022. UN News. Marking one year since Afghanistan’s de facto rulers decreed that girls should be excluded from high school, UN chief António Guterres has urged the Taliban to “let them back in” without delay. Afghanistan: UN repeats call for Taliban to allow girls full access to school
• (Africa) September 14, 2022. Council on Foreign Relations. Ebenezer Obadare, CFR’s Douglas Dillon Senior Fellow for Africa Studies, leads the conversation on Africa’s domestic and international relations. Academic Webinar: Africa’s Domestic and International Relations
• (Asia) September 19, 2022. Yu Yongding, East Asia Forum. Twenty-five years ago, the Asian Financial Crisis set back the economic progress made by East Asian countries by years, if not decades. The crisis was triggered by the crash of the Thai baht, but it quickly spread across East Asia. All of the economies in the region, regardless of their economic performance, were hit badly. Regional financial integration is unfinished business
• (Australia) September 20, 2022. Victor Abramowicz, The Interpreter. In August this year, the Australian government announced a holistic Defence Strategic Review that is, by March 2023, to provide recommendations (including on funding) for the “capabilities and posture of the Australian Defence Force [ADF] and broader Department of Defence” out to 2033. And a great deal has already been written on the Review, in particular on what it means for the ADF. Blue-sky thinking on the Defence Strategic Review
• (Australia) September 20, 2022. Huon Curtis, The Strategist. Constitutional recognition speaks to the nation’s various human-security issues – not least of which is building resilience and social cohesion at a time of geopolitical competition.  How Defence can improve Indigenous relations and enhance social cohesion
• (Australia) September 20, 2022.  John Coyne, The Strategist. Last week the Mandarin’s Julian Bajkowski wrote about Defence’s incoming ministerial brief, revealing how persistent emergencies increasingly tax the Australian Defence Force’s capability. Julian painted a picture of our highly trained soldiers used as glorified ‘garbos and cleaners’. He warned us that the Albanese government’s Defence Strategic Review could relegate Army to a lesser role in the defence organisation by using the Army this way. If this accurately represents how Julian and the Defence Organisation think, neither have grasped the national and regional significance of the continuous and concurrent crises we now face. Defence cannot — and shouldn’t — just walk away from disaster recovery
• (BRICS) September 19, 2022. Jordan Mc Lean, Luanda Mpungose, SAIIA. The ongoing war in Ukraine has raised questions about the BRICS’ – the bloc of major emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – commitment to the principles of respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty. It is pertinent to revisit these key principles that underpin BRICS cooperation against current territorial and geopolitical tensions. A global rebalance?
• (China) September 20, 2022. Global Times. China will be a moderately aging society in three years with 20 percent of the population aged 60 years and above and become a severely aging society by 2035 when 400 million people are 60 years and above, accounting for 30 percent of the population, a health authority official announced at a Tuesday press briefing and introduced the country’s arrangement to cope with the scenario. China to be a severely aging society by 2035; quick aging, large population pose challenges: health authority
• (China) September 20, 2022. Xinhua. China saw 386 new public-private partnership (PPP) projects registered in the first eight months of the year, official data showed. China adds 386 new PPP projects in first 8 months
• (China – ASEAN) September 20, 2022. Xinhua. During the 19th China-ASEAN Expo held in Nanning, capital of south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, new energy vehicles (NEVs) from Chinese carmakers caught visitors’ attention. Economic Watch: China, ASEAN enhance cooperation in NEV industrial chain
• (China – Pakistan) September 20, 2022. Xie Wenting, Global Times. China and Pakistan have witnessed strengthened bilateral relations and more extensive cooperation in a range of fields, especially in the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which analysts pointed out helped lay the foundation for Pakistan’s sustained economic modernization.  China and Pakistan ‘true brothers sharing weal and woe’
• (China – Pakistan) September 19, 2022. Xinhua. China and Pakistan will maintain close high-level exchanges and carry forward their unbreakable all-weather friendship, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said here on Monday. China, Pakistan to carry forward all-weather friendship: Chinese FM
• (Europe) September 19, 2022. Cecilia Malmström, Peterson Institute for International Economics. The European Union’s policy of expanding its membership has been labeled as a use of its soft power. By pushing new democracies to reform, assisting in their transition, and helping them align with EU law, EU enlargement has created a single, united Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union—one that has produced prosperity and embraced open, free-market economies and liberal values. The enlargement process has stalled since 2013, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now reviving it. A new dawn for EU enlargement?
• (Germany) September 13, 2022. Council on Foreign Relations. After sixteen years of coalitions led by Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats, Germany elected a new coalition government in 2021 of Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats under the leadership of Olaf Scholz. Against a backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, this new government has faced a steep learning curve and has called for major shifts in German foreign, security, and energy policy. Our panelists discuss how Germany’s foreign policy is evolving post-Chancellor Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech and if the government is effectively addressing rising energy costs and concerns about inflation and economic stagnation.  Virtual Term Member Meeting: Weathering the Storm – The Future of German Foreign and Economic Policy
• (Kazakhstan) September 19, 2022. Margarita Assenova, The Jamestown Foundation. Amid heightened tensions between Russia and Kazakhstan over the war in Ukraine, Astana is betting on high-level diplomacy to build international support for its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pope Francis’ visit on September 13 for a highly publicized global interreligious summit coincided with the first post-pandemic international trip of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who met with Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on September 14. The two leaders then took part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) summit in neighboring Uzbekistan. Next, Tokayev headed to New York for the 77th session of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on September 19–20, where he will seek Western backing for Kazakhstan’s security. Kazakhstan in the Diplomatic Spotlight
• (Mongolia) September 19, 2022. Victoria Bassetti, Lilly Blumenthal, and Matthew Eitel, Brookings. Over the course of a decade, Mongolia has implemented a series of interlinked laws and reforms relating to the transparency of corporate ownership.  How the mix of use cases for beneficial ownership transparency can complicate the drive for reform
• (Russia) September 19, 2022. Vadim Shtepa, The Jamestown Foundation. Political scientist Fyodor Krasheninnikov, who emigrated from Russia, noted that the Kremlin did everything to ensure that Mikhail Gorbachev’s funeral was “silent.” No speeches were made in memory of this historic politician. As Krasheninnikov lamented, “Everything that can and should be said at his grave is impossible for public utterance in Moscow in September 2022. Mikhail Gorbachev did everything to stop the USSR from being a dictatorship—a threat to democracy and world peace. Vladimir Putin has turned Russia into a citadel of evil, aggression and militarism, in which Gorbachev no longer had a place” (DW, September 5). Putin Is Anti-Gorbachev
• (Russia – Asia) September 20, 2022. David Uren, The Strategist. Russian President Vladimir Putin sought this month to contrast the vibrant economies of Asia with the decadence of the West, signalling that Russia’s future lay with the East. A shift to Asia won’t solve Russia’s economic woes
• (Russia – Syria) September 19, 2022. Tara Copp, Defense One. Russian military leaders have responded to losses in Ukraine by escalating the air campaign over Syria, the U.S. air commander for the Middle East operations warned Monday.  Russia Increasing Aggression Over Syria As Ukraine Losses Mount
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 19, 2022. Brookings. This conversation between Fiona Hill and Angela Stent was moderated by Agneska Bloch and recorded in Washington, DC on July 28, 2022. It is part of the Talbott Papers, a series that assesses the broader implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The conversation has been lightly edited for clarity and length. Putin’s war in Ukraine: A conversation with Fiona Hill and Angela Stent
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 19, 2022. IAEA. Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that shelling caused an explosion near the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant (SUNPP) early today, impacting three power lines and damaging windows at the site, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. Update 104 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 19, 2022. Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Mason Clark, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19
• (South Africa – USA) September 14, 2022. Council on Foreign Relations. Minister Naledi Pandor discusses the state of democracy in sub-Saharan Africa, the country’s relationship with the United States, and the future of its role in the region and internationally. A Conversation With Minister Naledi Pandor of South Africa
• (UN) September 19, 2022. Stefan Löfven, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.  As world leaders gather in New York for the opening of the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly, the security horizon is undoubtedly dark. From the geopolitical shockwaves of the war in Ukraine, to military spending, nutrition and food security, to our stewardship of the planet, far too many key indicators are heading in a dangerous direction. Towards a more secure future through effective multilateralism based on facts, science and knowledge
• (UN) September 19, 2022. UN News. Citing a raft of global challenges – from climate change and geopolitical division to deepening inequalities and conflict – UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for strengthened international solidarity to address them.Guterres calls for course correction to end geopolitical divisions, tackle climate crisis
• (UN) September 15, 2022. David J. Scheffer, Council on Foreign Relations. The seventy-seventh UN General Assembly (UNGA) session will be the center of the diplomatic universe when the high-level debate kicks off on September 20. The annual event typically showcases division, and the occasional unifying moment, but this year, urgent global action is needed on many fronts crucial to peace and security. Survival Governance at the UN General Assembly
• (USA) September 15, 2022. Rachel Kleinfeld, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. American democracy is at a dangerous inflection point. The moment requires a step-change in strategy and support. Five Strategies to Support U.S. Democracy
• (USA) September 19, 2022. Pew Research Center. The American public continues to express more positive opinions of “capitalism” than “socialism,” although the shares viewing each of the terms positively have declined modestly since 2019. Modest Declines in Positive Views of ‘Socialism’ and ‘Capitalism’ in U.S.
• (USA) September 19, 2022. Michael Lipka, Pew Research Center. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine, violence and turmoil in Central America, and other conflicts around the world continue to force many people to cross international borders in search of safety and security. Attitudes on taking in refugees vary by party, race and ethnicity
• (USA) September 13, 2022. Council on Foreign Relations. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, CFR fellow for international political economy, discusses global factors and trends contributing to inflation in the United States along with Justin Backover, business and policy reporter at WFMZ-TV 69 in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, who suggests how to frame stories on this subject for local communities.  Reporting on Inflation and the U.S. Economy
• (USA) September 19, 2022. Nicol Turner Lee, Brookings. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) passed in 2021 dedicates $65 billion for broadband funding which could be integral in closing the digital divide, particularly in rural areas. According to a Pew research survey from 2021, those who live in rural areas continue to be disproportionately affected by the digital divide, falling behind their urban counterparts by five percent in terms of home broadband access and by nine percent in terms of smartphone access. TechTank Podcast Episode 53: Under Secretary Xochitl Torres Small on expanding access to rural broadband
• (USA – Taiwan) September 20, 2022. Robert Ayson, The Interpreter. In the Cold War, analysts were sometimes concerned that the Kremlin might misread a rogue statement of bellicosity in Washington DC as an indication of White House intentions. If a maverick Senator stood up and insisted on rollback in a fire-breathing rant, did that mean US forces were about to intrude beyond the Iron Curtain? Would Russian forces be put on high alert? Or worse? But as both political systems got to know each other, and weathered the occasional crisis without going to war, the hope was that leaderships on both sides of the divide could separate the authentic signal from the noise, to borrow an argument from Thomas Schelling. What does Biden mean on Taiwan?