Geostrategic environment (september 19, 2022)

TODAY IN EVIDENCE

TOPICS

(Artemis Accords) September 19, 2022. US Department of State. On Monday, September 19, 2022, representatives of Artemis Accords signatory nations met at the International Astronautical Congress in Paris for the first in-person meeting since the launch of the Accords. At an event co-hosted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Agência Espacial Brasileira (AEB) of Brazil, and the Centre national d’études spatiales (CNES) of France, signatories discussed next steps in assuring the safe and responsible exploration of space. First Meeting of Artemis Accords Signatories
(Complex crisis contexts) September 2022. Jo Carpenter, Institute of Development Studies. This Briefing Note from the Knowledge, Evidence and Learning for Development (K4D) Programme responds to key challenges articulated by Foreign, Commonwealth & Development (FCDO) staff in monitoring how, and the extent to which, programming, policy and humanitarian interventions in crisis contexts support inclusion. Monitoring Inclusion in Crises
(Crypto-currencies) September 14, 2022. Evin Cheikosman, World Economic Forum. With the crypto-currency market under pressure in recent months, a long-awaited software upgrade to one of the, most popular crypto platforms, Ethereum, was made public last week. Ethereum Merge and what it means for the crypto industry
(Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. High inflation, not China and Russia, is the top concern of U.S. service members, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said Monday. Troops Worry Most About Inflation, Not China or Russia, Air Force Secretary Says
(Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Seth J. Frantzman, Defense News. Elbit Systems received a contract for $76 million to supply an electronic warfare training capability for an air force in an unnamed Asia-Pacific country, the Israeli firm announced Sept. 13. Elbit wins $76 million deal for electronic warfare training capability
(Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. José Higuera, Defense News. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has reactivated the process to acquire new fighter jets to replace the country’s aging Kfir fleet. Colombia relaunches plan to buy fighter jets
(Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force’s effort to modernize command, control, communications and battle management has proved more challenging than expected, Secretary Frank Kendall admitted Monday morning while announcing the appointment of a new program executive officer to supervise the project. Battle management reforms prove daunting, general to oversee effort
(Defense – Military – Security) September 19, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. L3Harris Technologies has entered an agreement with Brazil’s Embraer to convert KC-390 cargo planes into aerial tankers that can refuel U.S. combat planes in flight. L3Harris to Convert Embraer KC-390s for Aerial Refueling
(Future of Work) September 19, 2022, World Economic Forum. The labour market has always been a friendlier place for highly-skilled workers, and in today’s slowing economy, this is even more the case. Companies are embracing growth strategies that drive them to compete fiercely for skilled workers while contemplating job cuts for less skilled workers – a recent study PwC US conducted with senior executives found that 50% are planning to make job cuts. Why businesses need to bridge their employees’ skills gap
(Global Literacy) September 12, 2022. Katharina Buchholz, World Economic Forum. According to data compiled by Our World in Data and the World Bank, the literacy rate of the world’s population from secondary school age onward was only 12 percent in 1820 – around one person in ten. In 1900, it still barely exceeded 20 percent. From the 1950s on, world literacy began to take off, hitting 42 percent in 1960 and 70 percent in 1983. Today, the global literacy rate stands at 87 percent, or almost nine out of ten people worldwide. This is how much the global literacy rate grew over 200 years
(Global Trade) September 15, 2022. KateWhiting, World Economic Forum. The COVID-19 pandemic did not spell the end of globalization. That’s the view of the inaugural DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which draws on more than a million data points on the flow of goods between countries to map the state of world trade. These 3 charts show the state of global trade in 2022
(Health & Digital) September 19, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. The Novartis Foundation, Microsoft AI for Health, and the New York University (NYU) School of Global Public Health have partnered to launch the AI4HealthyCities Health Equity Network, an initiative to use data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) to combat heart health inequities, according to a press release shared with HealthITAnalytics. Microsoft, NYU, Novartis Launch AI-Driven Heart Health Equity Network
(Health & Digital) September 16, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Baptist Health North Florida announced that it would implement conversational artificial intelligence (AI) company Hyro’s offerings to enhance patient and employee experience across its call centers. FL Health System Adopts Conversational AI to Enhance Patient Experience
(Humanitarian activities & Data) September 14, 2022. Stephanie Diepeveen, John Bryant, Farhia Mohamud, Mahad Wasuge, Hassan Guled, Overseas Development Institute. This working paper aims to help humanitarian actors and donors better navigate the conflicting opportunities, and actual and potential risks involved in data sharing. The humanitarian sector is complex; many different actors and activities are involved in data sharing practices, from those who collect data, to those involved in processing, storing, sharing and using data and insights. This diversity of actors is especially striking when considering ‘third-party monitors’ – independent organisations contracted to assess humanitarian programmes. These entities play a crucial role in the humanitarian data ecosystem: they create and share information on response contexts and aid users. Yet they are under-studied, even as the sector better understands and codifies responsible data practices. Data sharing and third-party monitoring in humanitarian response
(Multilateral Development Bank) September 15, 2022. Overseas Development Institute. Multilateral Development Banks’ Capital Adequacy Frameworks: options for reform?

WORLDS

(Africa) September 19, 2022. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Since 2006, the African Union has played an active role in strengthening civilian engagement across its Peace Support Operations (PSOs) through the development of the Policy Framework for the Civilian Dimension of the African Standby Force in 2006 and the subsequent formation of the Civilian Strategic Support Group (CSSG) in 2015. This policy brief examines the development of the CSSG and its efforts to date, and offers an overview on how and why the civilian component should be further enhanced within future AU PSOs. The African Union’s Civilian Strategic Support Group
(Africa) September 17, 2022. Jaime de Melo, Jean-Marc Solleder, VOX. Understanding the landscape and trends of emissions is essential if we are to reach ‘net zero’. This column examines patterns of CO2 equivalent emissions worldwide, with a focus on 49 African countries and taking a comparative perspective. Africa’s CO2e footprint, while following the worldwide downward trend, is still the highest in the world. At the same time, the continent’s share of global CO2e emissions is the lowest and it is the only region that did not raise its per capita footprint over 1995-2015. The share of emissions in Africa originating from Asia has tripled to 11%, while Asia’s and Europe’s shares of imported emissions from Africa have remained constant. Africa’s export basket is skewed towards high CO2e intensity products. Africa’s contribution to world CO2 emissions
(AUKUS) September 19, 2022. Alessio Patalano, The Strategist. Since its announcement a year ago, the AUKUS agreement linking the US and the UK to Australia’s ambition to acquire nuclear-powered submarines has divided opinion. Understanding AUKUS
(Australia) September 19, 2022. Roland Rajah, The Interpreter. The Australian government has recently announced a Development Finance Review. One big idea actively under consideration is establishing an Australian development finance institution, or DFI. Five reasons Australia should establish a Development Finance Institution
(Burkina Faso) September 14, 2022. Crisis Group. Le dimanche 4 septembre, le lieutenant-colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba a prononcé un discours faisant le point sur son action depuis sa prise de pouvoir le 24 janvier 2022. Les experts de Crisis Group Mathieu Pellerin et Rinaldo Depagne analysent cette étape. Premier bilan pour le pouvoir de transition au Burkina Faso
(China) September 18, 2022. Xinhua. China’s average contribution to global economic growth exceeded 30 percent during the 2013-2021 period, ranking first across the world, a recent report showed. China contributes over 30 pct to world economic growth in 2013-2021
(China – Latin America) September 15, 2022. Sophie Wintgens, European Union Institute for Security Studies. Latin America’s external relations have historically been shaped mainly by the region’s relationship with the United States and Europe. In contemporary times, China has been interested in the region since the Cold War period. Until the late 1990s, relations between Asia and Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) were relatively limited, with the notable exception of Japan, which has established strong diplomatic, trade, economic and development ties with several countries in the region, particularly Brazil, Mexico and Peru. More recently, other Asian countries such as India and South Korea and some countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) such as Vietnam have begun to develop closer relations with LAC. It is especially in the last two decades that Asian countries, and first and foremost China, have begun to play a more important role in the foreign relations of Latin American countries. China’s footprint in Latin America
(China – Pakistan) September 19, 2022. Global Times. China’s State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe met with Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa on Monday morning, exchanging views on the current international and regional situation and other issues of common concern, read a statement posted by the Ministry of National Defense. Chinese Defense Minister meets Pakistan’s Army chief to exchange views on global, regional issues
(China – Russia) September 19, 2022. Michael Clarke, The Interpreter. President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan has prompted another round of speculation about China’s stake in its Russian relations. China’s ungainly balancing act with Russia
(China – Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – Pakistan) September 18, 2022. Xinhua. As a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China has played an important role in multiple areas of cooperation in the SCO, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has said. Interview: China plays important role in multiple areas of cooperation in SCO, says Pakistani PM
(China – Southeast Asia) September 12, 2022. . Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Since President Xi Jinping assumed office in 2012, China has attached great importance to the notion of discourse power in its foreign policy agenda. Xi’s speech at the National Propaganda and Ideology Work Conference in 2013 underscored the urgent need to “tell Chinaʼs story well, disseminate Chinaʼs voice well, and strengthen China’s discourse power internationally.”. Coined as huayuquan (话语权) in Chinese, the term connotes simultaneously the “right” of China to project its own narratives, ideas and concepts on the international stage and the “power” to influence the way people should think about the world. China’s goal of projecting its discourse power is to create “a positive global image to achieve global institutional power of agenda-setting” and to shape favourable international opinion for the exercise of China’s national interests. 2022/90 ““Tell China’s Story Well”: Chinese Embassies’ Media Outreach in Southeast Asian Media” by Wang Zheng
(China – Southeast Asia) September 16, 2022. Darren Cheong, . Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. This Long Read argues that while the terms of China’s aid and loans to Southeast Asian countries are less favourable compared to those of the World Bank, the weight of the evidence does not lend credence to the existence of a Chinese “debt trap” strategy in the region. Chinese ‘Debt Traps’ in Southeast Asia: What the Data Say
(Ethiopia) September 19, 2022. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Ethiopia is currently experiencing one of its most severe droughts in decades following four consecutive failed rain seasons. The country has a high dependency on rainfed agriculture, and recent reductions in economic growth rates, rapid population growth, weak institutional capacity and high levels of conflict make it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While climatic conditions differ substantially across Ethiopia, the average temperature is projected to increase, and rainfall is expected to become more erratic. Ethiopia´s long history of drought, famine and locust outbreaks all further the need for increased capacity and resilience to cope with the projected impacts of climate change. Political instability and conflict have compounded the humanitarian situation in the country, hampering the ability of the Ethiopian Government to implement its climate adaptation and mitigation policies. Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Ethiopia
(Europe) September 15, 2022. Matthias Bauer, European Centre for International Political Economy. The EU is pushing a controversial policy paradigm: strategic autonomy. The term is increasingly institutionalised. It is commonly referred to in speeches by high-level officials. New EU laws are infused with the concept and its derivations, such as industrial autonomy or technological sovereignty. Their precise meanings, intentions and actual impacts remain obscure. Brussels seems to be most concerned about which companies operate in the EU and how they exchange products, services and data with the rest of the world. Highlighting political ambitions for autonomy, the European Commission takes many novel approaches to regulation, including new bans, standards, incentives, and deterrents for production and consumption in the Member States. The costs of the EU’s strategic autonomy agenda – Why member states should stop ignoring them
(India) September 17, 2022. Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia, Observer Research Foundation. India should refrain from mimicking the rest of the world by increasing interest rates too quickly as it would directly impact the post-pandemic recovery of the economy. India: Taming inflation without inhibiting growth
(India) September 17, 2022. V Sridhar, East Asia Forum. Data protection regulation in India has recently faced several setbacks. The Personal Data Protection Bill was introduced to India’s lower house on 11 December 2019. But the government withdrew the Bill after India’s Joint Parliamentary Committee proposed 81 amendments and 12 recommendations. A new bill with a more comprehensive framework, including modern digital privacy laws, will be released soon. Resurrecting data regulation in India
(India – Sri Lanka) September 19, 2022. Prarthana Sen, The Interpreter. Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic turmoil has given rise to concern about a new wave of people seeking to escape local strife by fleeing to India. The flight of people across the short but turbulent passage between Sri Lanka and India is nothing new. Concern for Sri Lankans fleeing to India amid economic crisis
(India – Taiwan) September 16, 2022. Narayanan (Hari) Gopalan Lakshmi, Yves Tiberghien, East Asia Forum. Somewhat surprisingly, India took ten days to comment on US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and the ensuing large-scale live fire drills launched by China. On 12 August 2022, New Delhi stated that it sought a ‘de-escalation of tensions.’ Then on 28 August 2022, New Delhi accused Beijing of militarising the Taiwan Strait through its High Commissioner in Sri Lanka. Taiwan is an opportunity for Indian foreign policy
(Indonesia) September 19, 2022. . Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Academic analysts of Indonesian politics have been arguing whether Indonesia’s political system is an “illiberal democracy” or a democracy sliding backwards, a regressing democracy.[1] However, there are other ways to understand what is happening. Indonesia’s political format since 1998 has been that of liberal democracy but perhaps better described as ‘liberal democracy minus’. It is important to understand the “minus” aspects in order for us to locate current tensions and contradictions. 2022/92 “Business Throws its Support Behind Indonesia’s Opposition-Free Liberal Democracy”
(Indonesia) September 15, 2022. . Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. In March 2020, following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Indonesia, thousands of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) kyais (religious teachers) began to migrate their religious classes (ngaji) to the digital sphere. This move was considered necessary for preserving NU’s outreach and presence following the introduction of COVID-19 preventive measures limiting all forms of mass religious gatherings, such as face-to-face interactions in mosques and Islamic boarding schools. However, NU was not the first to shift its religious classes online. Even before the pandemic, Ulil Abshar Abdalla, the so-called “liberal” kyai, had been utilising social media to reach out to his followers; in 2016, he pioneered a religious class called Ngaji Ihya on Facebook. Remarkably, unlike most online religious classes which are well patronized only during the month of Ramadhan, Ulil’s Ngaji Ihya’sfollowing has remained consistent even beyond the fasting month. 2022/91 “From Liberalism to Sufism: Ulil Abshar Abdalla Gains Renewed Relevance Online Through Ngaji Ihya” by Wahyudi Akmaliah and Norshahril Saat
(Indonesia) September 19, 2022. Syafiq Hasyim, . Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Recent scandal involving one of the largest Islamic charities in Indonesia threatens to damage public trust if the authorities waste the chance to overhaul the poorly regulated sector. ACT’s Scandal Damages Islamic Philanthropy in Indonesia
(Iran) September 19, 2022. Kourosh Ziabari, Australian Institute for International Affairs. Without the nuclear deal in place, Iran struggles with the sanctions imposed by the US and other Western nations. This has led to severe social, political, and economic consequences. The Opportunities Iran Loses in the Absence of the JCPOA – Australian Institute of International Affairs The Opportunities Iran Loses in the Absence of the JCPOA
(Iran – Russia) September 18, 2022. Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian recently visited Moscow and met his Russian counterpart to discuss the nuclear talks, bilateral relations, and domestic developments in Syria and Afghanistan. Abdollahian was accompanied by Iran’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Kazemi Qomi, Director General of the Eurasia Department at the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alireza Haghighian, Director General of the South Asia Department at the same ministry Seyyed Rasoul Mousavi, and other Iranian officials. The recent meeting comes amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict and reflects the close interactions between Moscow and Tehran on several critical economic, political, and military issues. The Significance of the Iranian Foreign Minister’s Recent Visit to Moscow
(Japan – North Korea) September 17, 2022. Ulv Hanssen, East Asia Forum. Twenty years have passed since North Korea officially admitted to abducting Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s. Since this admission, Japan–North Korea relations have been cold. Tokyo and Pyongyang’s frosty relations will likely continue due to their irreconcilable positions on the abduction issue and North Korea’s deepening international isolation. No thaw in sight for Japan–North Korea relations
(Kenya) September 15, 2022. Zainab Usman, Aline Abayo, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Kenya’s much anticipated presidential election recently concluded with the Supreme Court confirming President William Ruto’s victory. In the runup to this close contest, Kenya’s political discourse was for once focused on economic and policy concerns. As the new government takes up the reins of administration, trade will feature in the policy solutions to ongoing challenges like rising unemployment rates, Kenya’s large public sector debt, concerns around equitable taxation, and the residual effects of global shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In charting the direction of the country’s post-election economic policy, trade will be important in various ways: its volume, bridging Kenya’s trade deficit, and the country’s external relations. Will U.S.-China Competition Shape Kenya’s Trade Trajectory?
(Russia) September 19, 2022. Helge Blakkisrud, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Russia’s post-1991 nation-building project has been torn between competing interpretations of national identity. Whereas the other former Soviet republics opted for nation-building centered on the titular nation, Russia’s approach to national identity was framed by the fact that the RSFSR had been defined not as a designated national homeland but as a multi-ethnic federation. This, coupled with Russia’s definition as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, suggesting continuity and a history of uninterrupted statehood, has enabled a range of rivaling understandings of how to define the “nation.”. Russkii as the New Rossiiskii? Nation-Building in Russia After 1991
(Russia – Ukraine) September 16, 2022. Alexandra
Prokopenko, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Given Ukraine’s successful counterattack, the fighting there isn’t going Russia’s way. Nor is the gas supply situation in Europe nearly as grim as Russian propaganda makes out. In these circumstances, Putin finds he does not have so many ways of putting pressure on the West at his disposal. Threatening to torpedo the grain deal is one of his few remaining options. Why Is Russia Jeopardizing the Ukraine Grain Deal ?
(Russia – Ukraine) September 19, 2022. Shlomo Ben-Ami, Project Syndicate, The Strategist. Despite Ukraine’s recent impressive counteroffensive around Kharkiv, the war with Russia has reached a prolonged deadlock. But there is one clear winner: the US arms industry. Who’s winning the war in Ukraine?
(Southeast Asia) September 12, 2022. Kumar Ramakrishna, Aliff Satria, V. Arianti, Kenneth Yeo, Unaesah Rahmah, Sylvia Lakshmi, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 14 Issue 05
(South Korea) September 19, 2022. Editorial Board, East Asia Forum. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has put priority on mending the US-South Korea alliance, rectifying the nadir in Seoul’s relationship with Tokyo, and eschewing his predecessor’s strategic ambiguity in favour of US-led western liberal values. ‘We will continue to solidly maintain universal values of freedom, human rights and rule of law — especially in the diplomatic and security fields’, Yoon declared at a press conference marking his first 100 days in office on 17 August. Yoon Suk-yeol’s poor approval ratings undermine South Korea’s ambitious foreign policy agenda
(South Korea) September 18, 2022. Karl Friedhoff, East Asia Forum. On the eve of his victory in South Korea’s presidential election, President Yoon Suk-yeol promised to unite a divided country. That was always unlikely to happen. Yoon is a political outsider with no established support base within his People Power Party. He won the closest victory in South Korea’s democratic history following substance-free campaigns from both candidates. Yoon scrambles to restore domestic confidence
(UK) September 16, 2022. David Rosenfeld, Overseas Development Institute. When the UK went into lockdown in mid-March 2020, government was faced with the dual challenge of managing the impact of closing down large parts of the economy and responding effectively to the pandemic. Policy-makers needed to make rapid decisions regarding, on the one hand, the extent of restrictions on movement and economic activity to limit the spread of the virus, and on the other, the amount of support that would be provided to individuals and businesses affected by the crisis. Traditional, official statistics, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or unemployment, which get released on a monthly basis and with a lag, could not be relied upon to monitor the situation and guide policy decisions. Using real-time indicators for economic decision-making in government: Lessons from the Covid-19 crisis in the UK
(USA – Australia – South Pacific) Graeme Dobell, The Strategist. Since the modern South Pacific arrived in the 1960s and 1970s, the United States has handed significant regional responsibility to Australia and New Zealand. What the US expects of Australia in the South Pacific

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