Geostrategic environment (september 13, 2022)

“Open and complex space, we are for dialogue between different ideas – There are no unique sources for an analyst”

We report, from Defense News, the news that German government will work to ease its restrictive export policy when pursuing joint weapon programs with European partners.

This is complex news because it touches on many aspects of a strategic problem. The article explains the difficulties related to major European projects, in particular the Future Combat Air System between Germany, France and Spain.

The unblocking of arms exports poses moral and political problems, especially when we look at the world in which we live. Today’s reflection is meant to look into the future: can we consider this step as a further building block towards a Europe of defence?

Whatever our opinion on arms exports, there is no doubt that Europe must progressively unite around sensitive policies, and common defence is among them.

(by M.E.)

TOPICS

• (Climate action & Sustainability) September 9, 2022. Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta and Jianhong Liu, Center for Global Development.  In an earlier blog post, we estimated G20 countries’ climate debt from 2019 to 2035 under business-as-usual and found it will rise by a staggering amount. Put simply, “climate debt” is the sum of the cumulative negative externalities from carbon emissions, whose costs are imposed on the globe without any compensation. We further argued that rising public debt as a result of the COVID pandemic and growing costs of pensions and health care will constrain policy choices in many countries and result in suboptimal social outcomes. The G20’s Climate Plans Don’t Do Enough to Limit Climate Debt
• (Cybersecurity) September 13, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Threat actors exploited a vulnerability in a popular VoIP appliance to gain access to a victim’s corporate network, researchers have revealed. Ransomware Gang Hacks VoIP for Initial Access
• (Cybersecurity) September 13, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Iranian hackers have been blamed for launching further cyber-attacks on the Albanian authorities, this time taking border control systems offline. Iranian Hackers Launch Renewed Attack on Albania
• (Cybersecurity) September 13, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Security experts have flagged a spectacular surge in network-attached storage (NAS) devices around the world infected with the Deadbolt ransomware variant. Researchers Warn of 674% Surge in Deadbolt Ransomware
• (Cybersecurity) September 12, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued sanctions against Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and its Minister of Intelligence for allegedly engaging in cyber–enabled activities against the US and its allies. US Treasury Sanctions Iranian Minister Over Hacking of Govt and Allies
• (Cybersecurity) September 12, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity.  The Binarly security research team has disclosed six high–severity firmware vulnerabilities the company found over the course of the year. High Severity Vulnerabilities Found in HP Enterprise Devices
• (Cybersecurity) September 13, 2022. Cao Siqi, Global Times. A “concealed and adaptable” weapon used by US’ intelligence center National Security Agency (NSA) to launch a cyberattack on the email system of Northwestern Polytechnical University in Northwest China’s Shaanxi Province – well-known for its aviation, aerospace and navigation studies – was captured by Chinese cybersecurity experts, the Global Times learned from a source on Tuesday. Exclusive: ‘Concealed, adaptable’ weapon of NSA’s cyberattack on leading Chinese aviation university exposed
• (Debt Crises in developing countries) August 30. 2022. G20 Insights. The debt situation in many low-income countries (LICs) following the COVID-19 pandemic has deteriorated considerably. While many LICs had participated in the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) by April 2022, only three countries have taken part in the Common Framework for Debt Treatment beyond DSSI. To better operationalise the Common Framework, the G20 should incentivise private and public creditor participation including those of Non-Paris Club members. In addition, G20 members should encourage the application of the comparability of treatment clause and urge multilateral creditors to participate in the debt restructuring process. The G20 should encourage full disclosure of debt among creditors by promoting the OECD Debt Transparency Initiative and by adopting the G20 Operational Guidelines. Moreover, the G20 should support local capacity building for public financial management in LICs and should promote that debt treatment under the Common Framework is subject to scaling up sustainable investments in debtor countries. Finally, the G20 should use its weight in the managing boards of the international financial institutions to push IMF-WB debt sustainability analyses to better include sustainability criteria. Resolving Debt Crises In Developing Countries: How Can The G20 Contribute To Operationalising The Common Framework?
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 13, 2022. Naval News. The Fincantieri-built Doha-class air defence corvette “Al Zubarah” and offshore patrol vessel “Musherib” were welcomed by the Qatari Emiri Navy on September 12, 2022. Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, and representatives of Fincantieri attended the ceremony. Qatar celebrates the arrival of “Al Zubarah” corvette and “Musherib” OPV
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 13, 2022. Shane Caughey, The Strategist. A key task for those carrying out the government’s defence strategic review is to consider the ability of the Australian Defence Force to engage in a high-intensity, state-on-state conflict in our region. Such a conflict would leave Australia no choice but to fight. It could reset the balance of power and potentially change the strategic alliance framework that has guaranteed Australia’s security for 70 years. The certainty of uncertainty: why Australia needs a flexibile defence force
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 13, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. Space sustainability company Slingshot Aerospace announced Tuesday it will release a free version of its Beacon platform, which alerts operators to potential satellite collisions. California company promises free crash-avoidance tool for spacecraft
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 13, 2022. Vivienne Machi, Defense News. The French Navy is setting its sights on commercially developed drones and laser weapons to field new capabilities before the end of the 2020s, a senior service officer said on Monday. French Navy embraces commercial tech for directed energy, drones
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 12, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. General Electric Aviation on Monday said it and the U.S. Air Force finished testing the firm’s second adaptive engine, which it hopes the military will adopt for the F-35 jet, and is ready to move into the engineering and manufacturing development phase. GE adaptive engine for F-35 finishes testing, preps for new phase
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 12, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News.  Lockheed Martin and AT&T said they securely downloaded and shared Black Hawk helicopter flight data in a fraction of the time it would normally take. The results of the Aug. 4 experiment, announced more than a month later on Sept. 9, demonstrate how useful the fifth-generation of wireless technologies can be to a military force, according to officials from the companies. Lockheed, AT&T accelerate Black Hawk data transfer using 5G networks
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 12, 2022. Mike Yeo, Defense News. Participants in a recent air combat exercise used Australia’s upgraded air bases that are still undergoing work in part to support an increased rotational presence of U.S. forces. Pitch Black participants benefit from Australian base upgrades
• (Digital & Health) September 12, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Researchers analyzing genomic data from the UCLA ATLAS Precision Health Biobank have found a highly diverse patient population within the repository, and they plan to leverage the data to support precision medicine efforts for underrepresented populations. UCLA Leverages Genomic Data to Support Health Equity, Precision Medicine
• (Digital & Health) September 12, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Researchers from the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine are collaborating with medical technology company Qynapse Inc. to research the effects of COVID-19 on vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID) using artificial intelligence (AI). FL Health System to Use AI to Investigate Effects of COVID-19 on Cognition
• (Geo-energy) September 13. Parul Bakshi, The Interpreter. With a global energy crisis underway due to rising prices, coupled with a forecast of a harsh northern hemisphere winter and supply volatility brought on by the Russia–Ukraine war, all eyes are on the future of energy transition. The Indo-Pacific will be at the centre of this transition, with rapidly expanding Southeast Asian economies and burgeoning populations forming a large share of the exponentially rising global energy demand. Powerhouse: clean energy transitions in the Indo-Pacific
• (Global currencies) September 12, 2022. Eswar S. Prasad, IMF. As bytes replace dollars, euros, and renminbi, some changes will be welcome; others may not. A New Era for Money Prasad
• (Global education) September 13, 2022. Stefania Giannini, Robert Jenkins, Jaime Saavedra, Andreas Schleicher, World Bank blogs. From learning recovery to education transformation
• (Global education) September 12, 2022. Bruce Fuller and Hoyun Kim, Brookings. The United Nations has set forth an ambitious vision for education systems around the globe: cultivating lifelong learning from early childhood through an individual’s civic and work life. Schools must support children and youth in basic learning—including crucial socio-emotional, literacy, and numeracy competencies—to contribute to sustainable societies. State-run education systems and their communities must now engage these global goals by 2030. Systems thinking to transform schools: Identifying levers that lift educational quality
• (Global governance) September 13, 2022. Akihiko (Aki) Nishio, World Bank blogs. World Bank support to the poorest countries: 5 things to know about IDA20
• (Poverty) September 13, 2022. Paul Corral, Isabel Molina, Alexandru Cojocaru, Sandra Segovia, World Bank blogs. The smaller, the better: The decades-long evolution of mapping poverty
• (Poverty) September 12, 2022. Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah, Dean Jolliffe, Christoph Lakner, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, World Bank blogs. Updating the World Bank’s Societal Poverty Line with the 2017 Purchasing Power Parities

WORLDS

• (Argentina) September 12, 2022. IAEA. An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission said Argentina’s regulator has demonstrated a long-standing commitment to enhancing and promoting nuclear safety. The team also recommended areas where improvements can be made. IAEA Mission Sees Commitment to Nuclear Safety in Argentina, Recommends Areas for Improvement
• (AUKUS) September 13, 2022. Sam Roggeveen, The Interpreter. On 15 September 2021, Prime Minister Scott Morrison joined his British counterpart Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden to announce AUKUS. In so doing, Morrison set Australia’s foreign and defence policies on a profoundly new course, a course now firmly embraced by the new Labor government led by Anthony Albanese. AUKUS, one year on
• (British Monarchy) September 9, 2022.  James McBride, Council on Foreign Relations. The succession from Queen Elizabeth II to Charles could accelerate anti-monarchy movements in countries where the Crown is still head of state. What Will King Charles III Mean for the British Monarchy Overseas?
• (Cambodia) September 13, 2022. Vannarith Chheang, East Asia Forum. Cambodia’s foreign policy is largely shaped by the worldview of Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has more than four decades of practical experience in diplomacy and foreign affairs. Understanding Cambodian foreign policy, including its decision to co-sponsor the UN resolution to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, means grasping the pragmatism that informs Hun Sen’s decision-making. Cambodia hedges
• (China – Japan) September 13, 2022. Xinhua. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a video speech on Monday at the opening ceremony of a seminar commemorating the 50th anniversary of the normalization of China-Japan diplomatic relations. Chinese FM puts forward five-point views on developing China-Japan relations
• (China – Kazakhstan) September 13, 2022. Xinhua. Full text of Xi’s signed article on Kazakh newspaper
• (China – Russia) September 13, 2022. Xinhua. Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, met on Monday with Andrey Denisov, the outgoing Russian Ambassador to China. Senior Chinese official meets outgoing Russian ambassador to China
• (Kenya) September 13, 2022. Gurjit Singh, ORF. The Kenyan elections: A surprisingly democratic and peaceful affair
• (Hong Kong – Bangladesh) September 13, 2022. Xinhua. A seminar has been held in Bangladesh to call on investors from China’s Hong Kong to invest in Bangladesh with its pro-investment environment. Seminar held in Bangladesh on seeking investment from China’s Hong Kong
• (India – Russia) September 13, 2022. Shashi Tharoor, Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. During a parliamentary debate in April, I expressed my concerns about India’s relationship with Russia. My words were met with grim-faced silence. But the events of the last five months have only strengthened my case. India’s long infatuation with Russia must end
• (Iran – USA) September 12, 2022. Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, Defense One. Iran’s standoff with the United States over its potential nuclear weapons program is unlikely to ease anytime soon.  The U.S. and Iran launched talks in 2021 to renew a now-defunct political deal that would curb Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran, US Seem Unlikely to Reach a New Nuclear Deal
• (Iraq) September 12, 2022. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. Iraq’s water situation is increasingly dire, putting pressure on the central government, governorate authorities, and citizens. Declining quantity and quality of water, outdated and damaged infrastructure, and inefficient water use uncover deficiencies in existing water governance. Water Governance in Iraq: Enabling a Gamechanger
• (Japan) September 13, 2022. Andrew Levidis, East Asia Forum. Until he was assassinated during a last-minute campaign stop in the western Japanese city of Nara on 8 July 2022, Shinzo Abe — Japan’s longest serving post-war leader — was a central and dominant figure in Japanese politics. Post-war Japanese history has been punctuated by spectacular instances of murder, arson and religious violence that serve as a stark reminder that parliamentary democracy has not been attained bloodlessly. The end of the Kishi era
• (Myanmar) September 13, 2022. Human Rights Watch. Myanmar’s military and police are responsible for scores of deaths in custody since the February 1, 2021 military coup, Human Rights Watch said today. Myanmar: Death of Activists in Custody
• (Nepal) September 12, 2022. Karishma Wasti, World Bank blogs. Towards green, resilient, and inclusive agriculture development in Nepal
• (Russia) September 12, 2022. Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation. As Russia’s illegal re-invasion of Ukraine continues, a number of ramifications extend to the Russian domestic political scene with some, such as Yale University historian Timothy Snyder, positing on the incredible rise of the far right in Russia. Even so, the Cossacks appear to be one group that is improving its standing, being ever more tightly woven into Kremlin state structures. Russian Cossacks’ Integration With the State
• (Russia) September 12, 2022. Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. In early September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out his intention to punish Europe for resisting Russia’s assault on the world order and supporting Ukraine louder and clearer than ever before. Speaking at the high session of an economic forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Putin asserted that the confrontation in Ukraine has reinforced Russia’s sovereignty, so in reality, it stands to gain from deepened global polarization and has suffered no significant losses (Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 7). He described the proposal to enforce a price cap on oil and gas exported from Russia as “dumb” and threatened to halt all energy supplies if approved by the European Union (Kommersant, September 7). Putin Has Unsheathed His Energy Weapon Too Early—and Too Late
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 12, 2022. Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Armed resistance within the occupied territory, coupled with Ukrainian army counterattacks along the front lines, have compelled Moscow to postpone the “referendums” for annexing Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia regions to Russia (see EDM, September 8). Russian ‘Referendums’ Delayed, Ukrainian Resistance Mounting in Occupied Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia (Part Two)
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 12, 2022. IAEA. In his opening address to the IAEA’s Board of Governors today, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi reiterated his call for the establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. Situation at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant ‘Untenable,’ Protection Zone Needed, IAEA’s Grossi tells Board
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 12, 2022. Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW.  Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 12, 2022. Tara Copp, Defense One. Ukrainian forces have capitalized as Russia has repeated some of the strategic missteps that halted Moscow’s initial advance on Kyiv, and some Russian troops seem to have retreated back to their home country, Pentagon officials said Monday.  Some Russian Forces Appear to Be Fleeing Ukraine, Pentagon Says
• (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) September 13, 2022. Xinhua. Xiplomacy: China-proposed initiatives focus on global development, security
• (Sri Lanka) September 13, 2022. Human Rights Watch.  The United Nations Human Rights Council should adopt a strong resolution on Sri Lanka that strengthens current UN mandates on accountability for crimes under international law and monitors the country’s deteriorating human rights situation, four international human rights organizations said in a letter to council member states published today. The resolution should also call upon Sri Lanka to address ongoing abuses, including by ending use of the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act. Sri Lanka: Rights Groups Urge Strong UN Resolution
• (Sweden) September 12, 2022. IAEA. An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team of experts has completed a review of long term operational safety at the Oskarshamn Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Unit 3 in Sweden. IAEA Concludes Long Term Operational Safety Review of Sweden’s Oskarshamn Nuclear Power Plant
• (Syria) September 13, 2022. The Syrian Observer. On Monday morning, the “caravan of light” set off from the Idleb region to the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey to pressure the Turkish side to open the borders and direct them to European countries. The caravan included about 200 people carrying their luggage.  HTS Forces Idleb’s ‘Caravan of Light’ to Return
• (Syria) September 13, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Deputy Foreign and Expatriates Minister, Bashar al-Jaafari, discussed with Deputy Director of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs for the Middle East and North Africa (OCHA) Tarek Talahmeh, and the accompanying delegation the need for all countries and international organizations to abide by the resolutions issued by the Security Council. Syria Says International Aid Should to be Delivered by Government
• (Syria) September 13, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The cases of Naira Ashraf, Iman Arsheed, Lubna Mansour, Shaima Jamal and others, all victims of femicide which shook the Arab world during the space of one month, have revived interest in the huge problem of violence against women in the Arab world. However, these numbers only scratch the surface with regards to what is going on in Syria, where violent crimes against women within the family home are recurring on a near daily basis but for the most part, remain shrouded in secrecy. Femicide Reaches Terrifying Levels in War-torn Syria Amid Lawlessness & Impunity
• (Syria) September 13, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militias allowed the Turkish regime-backed Kurdish National Council to prepare for its fourth congress in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli.  SDF Allows Kurdish National to Prepare for Fourth Congress
• (UK) September 8, 2022. Charles Kenny, Center for Global Development. A Proposed UK Party Manifesto Section on Global Cooperation
• (USA) September 13, 2022. Human Rights Watch. United States state laws overwhelmingly fail to meet international child rights standards, with the vast majority failing to protect children from child marriage, hazardous child labor, extreme prison sentences, and violent treatment, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch gave 20 states a failing “F” grade, and 26 a “D.” Not a single state received a “B” or an “A.” New Jersey, Ohio, Iowa, and Minnesota were the only states to receive a “C” grade. US States Fail to Protect Children’s Rights
• (USA) September 13, 2022. Peter Feaver, Michele Flournoy, Lawfare. The United States needs to review the basic principles of civilian control of the military and recommit to best practices in civil-military relations. That is the underlying message of a remarkable open letter by former secretaries of defense and former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, published last week on War on the Rocks. Let’s Stop Being Cavalier About Civilian Control of the Military
• (USA) September 13, 2022.  Kristen Eichensehr, Cathy Hwang, Lawfare. In the past year, the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) reviewed a record number of transactions for national security concerns. National Security Creep in Cross-Border Investments
• (USA) September 8, 2022. Claire Klobucista, Council on Foreign Relations. COVID-19 is contributing to a dramatic decline in the average lifespan of Americans. The drop-off is canceling out decades of public health gains and stretching the gap between the United States and its peers. U.S. Life Expectancy Is in Decline. Why Aren’t Other Countries Suffering the Same Problem?
• (USA) September 12, 2022. William H. Frey, Brookings. Beginning early in the last century and continuing for decades, Black Americans took part in a “Great Migration” that saw millions move out of the South and into other parts of the country. But over the past 50 years, that historic event has reversed, as many returned to the South in a “New Great Migration.”. A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South
• (USA – China) September 12, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Patrick Tucker, Defense One. Imagine a future in which the most skilled U.S. tech workers can’t find jobs, authoritarian regimes exert more power than democratic governments, freedom of expression is replaced by open censorship, and no one believes the U.S. military can deter conflict. All this could happen if China surpasses the United States in key technology areas, according to a new report from the Special Competitive Studies Project, led by former Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work and Google co-founder Eric Schmidt.  The 189-page report, released on Monday, looks at current and future technology competition between the United States and China—from microelectronics supply to tech talent retention to the effects of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence on tomorrow’s national security.  US Trails China in Key Tech Areas, New Report Warns
• (USA – Haiti) September 8, 2022. Susan D. Page, Council on Foreign Relations. Haiti remains a source of concern for U.S. national security policymakers. The inclusion of Haiti as a priority country under the Global Fragility Act (GFA) reflects a growing recognition by the U.S. government that a new strategy needs to be applied in partnership with the people of Haiti. A Smarter U.S. Assistance Strategy for Haiti
• (USA – Pakistan – India) September 12, 2022.  Arvind Gupta, VIF. On 7 September 2022, the US notified the US Congress that it had made a “determination” approving a possible “Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to the Government of Pakistan of F-16 for sustainment and related equipment for an estimated cost of $450 million.” The decision has been taken at the request of the Pakistani government.  US Military Assistance Package to Pakistan will have a Direct Bearing on India’s National Security
• (USA – Saudi Arabia) September 7, 2022. Council on Foreign Relations. U.S.-Saudi Relations