Geostrategic environment (september 1, 2022)

TODAY IN EVIDENCE

• The “President” Gorbachev. From Project Syndicate and The Strategist – The greatest democrat Russia ever had
• Gorbachev and the end of the cold war. From Atlantic Council – Without Gorbachev, Reagan wouldn’t have won the Cold War
• Meeting of the Atlantic Council with the Minister of Defense of Denmark – A conversation with Danish Minister of Defense Morten Bødskov – Atlantic Council

WORLDS

Indonesia

• September 1, 2022. Eduard Lazarus, The Interpreter. After two years of pandemic killjoy, Indonesia’s Independence Day celebrations last month had a festive feel. During a ceremony at Merdeka Palace in Jakarta, the public was entertained by the rare spectacle of President Joko Widodo’s cabinet ministers dancing to a dangdut rendition sung by recent online sensation 12-year-old Fadel Prayoga. High-ranking political figures, from Finance Minister Sri Mulyani to Defence Minister and two-time presidential rival Prabowo Subianto (who recently announced he’s going to run for office again in 2024), all got up from their seats to jive, albeit a bit awkwardly. Indonesia’s criminal code a step backwards, not forwards

Iraq

• August 30, 2022. Abbas Kadhim, C. Anthony Pfaff, Barbara Slavin, Andrew L. Peek, and Masoud Mostajabi, Atlantic Council. Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced he would resign from Iraqi politics on August 29, prompting his followers to storm government palaces in response and sparking fears that violence could erupt in a country already beset by its worst political crisis in years. Iraq’s military announced a nationwide curfew and the caretaker premier suspended cabinet sessions in response to the violence. Experts react: Muqtada al-Sadr withdraws from politics. What’s next for Iraq amid a deep political rupture?

Japan

• September 1, 2022. Yasuo Takao, East Asia Forum. Japan’s House of Councillors (upper house) election was held on 10 July 2022, placing 125 of the country’s 284 upper house seats up for grabs. Japanese newspapers ran headlines celebrating the record number of women who won seats. But this praise may not stand up to close scrutiny. Japan’s women lawmakers remain seated

Philippines

• August 31, 2022. Kevin Nielsen M Agojo, East Asia Forum. During the regime of former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine National Police (PNP) played an instrumental role as ‘chief executioner’ in the war on drugs. By securitising the drug problem and elevating order over the rule of law, Duterte gave the PNP and vigilantes a carte blanche to kill suspected users and traders — exacerbating violence and injustice throughout the Philippines. Can Marcos Jr arrest the decline of the Filipino police?

Philippines – Australia

• September 1, 2022. Euan Graham, The Strategist. Which country is Australia’s most important defence partner in Southeast Asia? I’m guessing not many readers of The Strategist would put the Philippines at the top of their lists. The correct answer, of course, is, ‘It depends.’ Yet, for some of the most demanding military scenarios that may confront the Australian Defence Force in the decade ahead, such as a war over Taiwan or in the South China Sea, the Philippines could be an indispensable partner because of its location and potential willingness, as a fellow treaty ally of the United States, to grant access and logistical support to Australian forces. Although low profile, the Australia–Philippines defence relationship has surprising depth and potential, meriting a closer look. The Philippines could be Australia’s most important defence partner in Southeast Asia

Russia

• September 1, 2022. Matthew Sussex, The Interpreter. In Vladimir Putin’s Russia it is usually political moderates who are afflicted by sudden and extravagant illnesses, “accidents”, and assassinations. Whether the killing of dissidents such as human rights activist Anna Politkovskaya in 2006, the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, or the poisoning of the anti-corruption figure Alexei Navalny with a fourth-generation chemical weapon, a steady parade of dead and incapacitated Russian liberals has usually signalled more of the same: tighter state controls, less tolerance of dissent, and more political repression. Death of a Russian ultranationalist

USA

• August 2022. Makada Henry-Nickie, Regina Seo, Brookings. Candid conversations on structural racism have encouraged social scientists to recast issues of race, place, and inequality by adopting a new racial equity view. Valuing rural minority communities: Inclusive growth, broadband, and leadership

TOPICS

Defense – Military – Security

• August 31, 2022. Andrew Chuter, Defense News. Britain’s Royal Navy took charge of its fifth Astute-class nuclear submarine Aug. 31, but it was news that Australian submariners were going to train on the boat as part of the so-called AUKUS pact that caught much of the attention. HMS Anson was commissioned at the Barrow-in-Furness yard of BAE Systems where the seven-strong Astute fleet is being built to replacing aging Trafalgar-class boats. Britain’s newest nuclear sub to host Australian crew under AUKUS pact
• August 31, 2022. Ryan Brobst, John Hardie and Bradley Bowman, Defense News. The Ukrainian military announced the beginning of a much-anticipated counteroffensive on Monday, aiming to retake territory in the country’s south. Western weapons, which have helped Ukraine strike high-value targets behind the front lines as part of a strategy to degrade Russia’s ability to hold the territory it has seized, have made Kyiv’s counteroffensive possible and could be decisive in determining its outcome. That’s why Washington should provide Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile System without delay. Why Washington should provide ATACMS weapons to Ukraine
• August 31, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Army will establish an office dedicated to offensive cyber and space capabilities next year amid rapidly shifting priorities, officials said. US Army to launch offensive cyber capabilities office
• August 31, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. Raytheon Missiles and Defense won a $972 million contract to supply U.S. and other militaries with Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs. Raytheon wins $972M order for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile
• August 31, 2022. Irene Loewenson, Defense News. Slovakia and Finland have signed a deal that would see the former’s industry participate in the production of 76 armored combat vehicles already on order from Patria, the Finnish defense company announced Tuesday. The Slovak government in March chose Patria to supply the eight-wheel drive AMV XP platform. The vehicles will feature the remote-controlled Slovak Turra 30 turret and the 30mm GTS-30/A cannon, according to a news release by the Slovak Defence Ministry. Slovakia, Finland ink production deal for 76 Patria combat vehicles
• August 31, 2022. Andrew Chuter, Defense News. The British Ministry of Defence has queried arms manufacturers about ways to smoothen a major upcoming acquisition program for a new self-propelled 155 mm howitzer. Industry executives, who asked not to be named, said companies vying to compete for the key land strike program, had responded to at least four MoD requests for information. British government sounds out arms makers on new howitzer risks
• September 1, 2022. The Strategist. In this special episode, ASPI’s Marcus Hellyer speaks to Palmer Luckey, founder of Oculus VR and Anduril Industries, and Shane Arnott, Anduril Industries’ chief engineer. They discuss defence industry, improving defence procurement, and bringing a Silicon Valley approach to deliver capabilities faster. Policy, Guns and Money: Palmer Luckey brings tech disruption to defence

Digital & Tech

• August 31, 2022. Jessica Brandt, Brookings. Authoritarian governments leverage digital technologies to repress the rights and freedoms of their citizens at home, silence dissent among diasporas and other individuals beyond their borders, and to interfere in democratic governments, processes and institutions abroad. Left uncontested, the damaging abuse of technologies will further lead to a decline of human rights worldwide. Digital Authoritarianism (concordia.ca)