Geostrategic environment (october 8, 2022)

Geostrategic environment

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

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All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (Brazil) October 7, 2022. Valerie Wirtschafter, Brookings. On Sunday, October 2, Brazilians cast their votes in a presidential election that pairs two familiar faces in Brazilian politics: current Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, whose polarizing rhetoric, populist style, and penchant for yelling “fraud” have earned him the nickname the “Trump of the Tropics”; and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, who while serving as Brazil’s president for eight years implemented policies that significantly reduced poverty and inequality, was later jailed for alleged corruption, and has been described as the “most hated and loved man in Brazil.”. Will Brazil’s elections be a victory for democracy?
  • (China – Taiwan) October 7, 2022. Benjamin Jensen, Riley McCabe, CSIS. With the 20th Party Congress approaching and Xi Jinping seeking an unprecedented third term, it is important to explore the full range of actions Beijing could take to coerce Taiwan over the next 10 years. History provides a range of historical cases that suggest alternatives to a full-scale invasion. What If . . . Alternatives to a Chinese Military Invasion of Taiwan
  • (China – West) October 5, 2022. Alicia García-Herrero, Bruegel. The model of increasing economic interdependence between the West and the emerging world was built on assumptions that no longer hold. China and the West: growing apart as geopolitical tensions grow
  • (Europe) October 6, 2022. Alexander Lehmann, Bruegel. Reform of the EU central clearing framework is an essential part of capital markets union, but reform should not be driven by current energy turmoil. Volatile energy markets expose the fragility of Europe’s capital market infrastructure
  • (Germany) October 6, 2022. Jackson Janes, GMF. The country faces many difficult decisions in the coming months. As I watch this unfold, I am reminded of another such moment over four decades ago, during which serious challenges confronted a divided Germany in an environment shaped by the Cold War. That was also the time I took up my job as representative of the German Marshall Fund in Bonn in July 1980. Germany’s Choices over Ukraine Recall Earlier Cold War Challenges
  • (Iran) October 7, 2022. Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Brian Carter, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Regime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations. Iran Crisis Update, October 7
  • (Japan) October 7, 2022. Gunther Schnabl, East Asia Forum. At more than 145 yen per dollar, the Japanese yen has slipped to a 24-year low. After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) signalled further depreciation would be tolerated, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that ‘excessive, disorderly currency moves could negatively impact the economy and financial conditions’. The massive foreign exchange intervention that followed to strengthen yen could not reverse the depreciation pressure. That may signal that Japan’s post-bubble crisis management has reached its limits. Japan’s currency bursts its post-bubble economy
  • (Japan) October 7, 2022. Rueben Dass, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 8, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while delivering a speech in Nara, Japan (The Japan Times, July 8). The suspect, 41-year-old Tetsuya Yamagami, who was an ex-member of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, shot the former premier using a homemade improvised gun (The Japan Times, July 10). The fact that Yamagami successfully employed a fully homemade, but still crude, weapon using commercially available parts highlights the threat of such weapons and the ability of individuals to circumvent existing gun laws to manufacture their own. The Assassination of Shinzo Abe in Japan and the Threat from Primitive Homemade Weapons
  • (Japan – USA) October 8, 2022.  Fumiaki Kubo, East Asia Forum. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked Japan, its seriousness was multiplied by China’s support for Russia. Facing this new reality, Japan’s national security policy is now undergoing a historic change at an unprecedentedly fast pace. Japan–US relations after Russia’s war in Ukraine
  • (Pakistan – Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) October 7, 2022. Nadeem Shah, The Jamestown Foundation. The peace talks between Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Pakistan security establishment are facing an undeclared deadlock since a fruitless tour paid by a top Taliban delegation to Kabul in late July (The Express Tribune, July 27). The Taliban delegation visited under the leadership of Mufti Taqi Usmani, who is considered one of the foremost clerics and tutors not only among the Afghan Taliban but also TTP, and made efforts to convince the TTP leadership to withdraw its primary demand for a demerger of the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Dawn, July 31). However, the TTP rejected a compromise on this “FATA demerger” issue (The Express Tribune, July 30). Rather, the TTP handed a two-page charter with demands to the Taliban delegation, which called for the demerger and the Islamization of Pakistan, among other demands, while criticizing the Pakistani military (Twitter/@roohan_ahmed July 26). Unless these demands are met by the Pakistani security establishment, any peace with the TTP may be impossible to achieve. The Pakistani Taliban’s Quest for a Sharia State by Demerging FATA from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 7, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 7, 2022. Atlantic Council. The Ukrainian offensive continues to pressure Russian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine. On October 5, Ukrainian forces captured Hrekivka and Makiivka in Luhansk Oblast, approximately twenty kilometers southwest of Svatove. Fighting also continues in Kharkiv Oblast, where the Ukrainian military recently recaptured Hlushkivka. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command confirmed on October 4 that it had liberated Lyubimivka, Khreshchenivka, Zolta Balka, Bilyaivka, Ukrainka, Velyka Oleksandrivka, Mala Oleksandrivka, and Davydiv Brid. It appears that withdrawing Russian forces are destroying their own weapons reserves, likely to prevent Ukrainian forces from capturing equipment as they advance.  Russian War Report: Ukrainian recaptures territory as Russia uses Iranian drone near Kyiv
  • (Taijikistan – Syria) October 7, 2022. Nurbek Bekmurzaev, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 25, Tajikistan repatriated 146 of its citizens from Syria, including 42 women and 104 children, who were stranded in the al-Hol and Roj refugee camps. The authorities stated that the operation’s main goal was “to save the Tajik children from hopelessness and their return from the war-torn country to peaceful life in their native state (Khovar, July 25).” Nothing is known about their fate since arriving in Tajikistan except that they were placed in a sanatorium for recovery. Promises and Pitfalls of Tajikistan’s Latest Repatriation Program for Islamic State Families from Syria
  • (USA) October 7, 2022. American Progress. Rose Khattar and Jessica Vela discuss how equitable implementation of the Biden administration’s major economic accomplishments, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, can help better support Hispanic and Latino workers. Opinion: Hispanic and Latino workers deserve equal economic opportunity, not a return to the pre-pandemic status quo
  • (USA) October 7, 2022. Alex Fredman, Todd Phillip, American Progress. In recent years, many businesses in the United States have made public commitments to reduce their carbon footprints or even achieve net-zero carbon emissions. In response to growing public and shareholder demands to address climate change, these businesses, including many large corporations, have increasingly purchased products called “voluntary carbon offsets.”. The CFTC Should Raise Standards and Mitigate Fraud in the Carbon Offsets Market
  • (USA) October 7, 2022. Karen Dynan and Wilson Powell III, Peterson Institute for International Economics. The September employment report signaled that the US labor market is cooler than it was earlier this year, consistent with the view that monetary policymakers have slowed the economy somewhat as they try to tame inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000, roughly in line with expectations for a rise of 250,000 (figure 1). On average, payrolls have risen by 372,000 over the past three months, materially below the average gain of 444,000 in the first half of 2022. The three-month change in average hourly earnings, at 4.4 percent in September (adjusted for the changes in the composition of employment across industry sectors), has not declined appreciably since the spring, but it is down from the 6 percent pace seen in late 2021. Job growth has slowed but the US labor market is still tight
  • (USA) October 3, 2022. Jason Matheny, RAND Corporation. Taiwan’s domination of the microchip industry has been a boon to the global economy, but it now presents an acute challenge. Taiwan today manufactures most of the world’s microchips, which are in practically everything: cars, coffeemakers, combine harvesters. The whole world hums with microelectronic components—including about 92 percent of all advanced microchips—that are made largely in a handful of factories on an island less than one-tenth the size of California. Little more than 100 miles away across a strait lies mainland China, which views Taiwan as a breakaway region and has vowed to bring it back under its control. The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution
  • (USA) October 7, 2022. Reva Dhingra, Brookings. The political space on immigration in the United States ahead of the November midterms has largely been dominated by games of anti-immigrant one-upmanship between Republican presidential hopefuls. On September 14, 2022, two planes filled with approximately 50 migrants and asylum-seekers from Venezuela landed in Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. The planes were sent by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who first flew the asylum-seekers from Texas to Florida before Martha’s Vineyard, under the deception that they would be arriving in Boston. The flights were perhaps the most extreme example of recent efforts by Republican governors to transfer migrants, refugees, and asylum-seekers to northern Democrat-controlled areas. Why refugee resettlement is a crucial part of US migration strategy
  • (USA) October 6, 2022. Heather A. Conley, GMF. Eighteen months ago, President Joe Biden proclaimed to the United States’ European allies that “America was back” after four difficult years during which his predecessor suggested that Europe was a “foe” and contemplated an American withdrawal from NATO. My organization’s flagship polling project on European public opinion, the German Marshall Fund’s Transatlantic Trends, can quantify that the United States is back—and its engagement is strongly welcomed by Europeans.  “America Is Back”… But for How Long?
  • (USA – Arctic) October 7, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. The White House on Friday released a 10-year Arctic strategy that emphasizes deterring increased Russian and Chinese activity in the region as global warming rapidly melts the polar ice caps, drastically transforming the environment. White House Arctic strategy calls for enhanced military presence
  • (USA – Europe) October 7, 2022. Emily Benson, Elizabeth Duncan, CSIS. Transatlantic data flows account for more than half of Europe’s data flows and about half of U.S. data flows globally. According to the Congressional Research Service, in 2020, the U.S.-EU trade of information and communications technology (ICT) services and potentially ICT-enabled services was over $264 billion. The European Union and United States have taken somewhat divergent approaches to regulate the digital relationship between government and citizens, imposing limitations on cross-border personal data transfers and seeking to codify personal privacy rights at the heart of the European Union’s ambitious “Digital Decade” packages. The “Brussels effect,” whereby European policies are exported abroad, epitomizes the European approach to digitization. The European approach has been to craft ex ante rules based on the precautionary principle or philosophy that seeks to preempt the deployment of goods and services perceived as potentially risky. Temporarily Shielded? Executive Action and the Transatlantic Data Privacy Framework
  • (USA – Europe) October 7, 2022. Atlantic Council. Today, the Biden administration issued an executive order to codify changes to privacy rules for transatlantic data transfers from the European Union (EU). A long-awaited announcement, the executive order is the next step toward establishing a new EU-US Data Privacy Framework (DPF), which will secure the free flow of personal data and thus underpins the US-EU commercial relationship. The data privacy deal driving the future of the US-EU commercial relationship
  • (USA – UK – Persian Gulf – Iran) October 7, 2022. Jon Gambrell, The Associated Press, Defense News. The U.S. Navy held a joint drone drill with the United Kingdom on Friday in the Persian Gulf, testing the same unmanned surveillance ships that Iran twice has seized in recent months in the Middle East. US, UK hold drone drill in Persian Gulf after Iran seizures

 

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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