Geostrategic environment (october 7, 2022)

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

The Global Eye’s daily briefs – Editor, The Global Eye

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

P.M. (ITALIAN TIME)

TOPICS

• (Cybersecurity) October 7, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The US authorities have urged voters to critically evaluate any information they receive about the upcoming midterms, after warning that foreign actors may seek to sow doubt about the result. US Warns of Foreign Disinfo Ops Ahead of Midterms
• (Cybersecurity) October 7, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity.
  WhatsApp parent company Meta is suing three Chinese developers for allegedly tricking users into downloading fake versions of the app that harvested their login details. Meta Sues Chinese Devs over WhatsApp Malware Plot
• (Cybersecurity) October 7, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Cyber-criminals have stolen an estimated two million Binance coins (BNB) from a popular cross-chain bridging service, potentially landing them with a haul of over $570m at today’s exchange rates. Hacker Steals Over $570m from Binance Bridge
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 7, 2022. Edward Graham, Defense One. The Department of Defense needs to centralize its data collection mechanisms and standardize terminology across its command-and-control structures to improve oversight of its special operations forces, according to a report released by the Government Accountability Office on Wednesday.  Oversight of Special Operations Forces Requires Better Data, Watchdog Says
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 6, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. The State Department on Thursday approved a $3 billion medium-range missile defense system sale for Kuwait. US approves $3 billion NASAMS air defense kit for Kuwait
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 6, 2022. Catherine Buchaniec, Defense News. With competition to field the U.S. Army’s light robotic combat vehicle starting in the third quarter of 2023, the project’s programmers are working on new testing and evaluation criteria to certify the technology. US Army eyes new ways to evaluate autonomous vehicles
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 6, 2022. Zamone Perez, Defense News. A new headquarters unit was activated in Sembach, Germany, on Thursday to provide command and control for all Army air and missile defense forces within U.S. European Command, according to a statement from U.S. Army Europe and Africa. Army activates new unit to control air and missile defenses in Europe
• (Global Economy) October 6, 2022. Maurice Obstfeld, PIIE. As central banks across the world hike interest rates amid a global burst of inflation, a relentless logic dictates that many foreign economies may buckle before the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle is complete. The US economy has continued to show strength despite the Fed’s actions to date, so US interest rates (and the US dollar) have further to rise before the Fed achieves a domestic slowdown sufficient to quell inflation. But other economies, notably the emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs), are closer to recession. Emerging-market and developing economies need support amid rising interest rates
• (Global Economy) October 6, 2022. Karen Dynan, PIIE. With inflation sustained at high levels in some countries and having increased sharply in others, the outlook for the global economy is  dimmer than it was last spring, according to the analysis presented at the PIIE semiannual Global Economic Prospects for Fall 2022. Global economic growth is projected to step down, with the brisk gain of 5.8 percent in 2021 to be followed by increases of 2.9 percent in 2022 and 1.8 percent in 2023. Tighter monetary policy is the primary driver of the projected global slowdown, but direct effects of the energy-price shock from the war in Ukraine and weaker prospects for China are contributing factors. High inflation makes for a hard road ahead
• (IPEF) October 6, 2022. Arata Kuno, The Japan Institute of International Affairs. The IPEF’s intergovernmental crisis response mechanism proposed in the ministerial statement can significantly strengthen the region’s supply chain resilience if adequately designed. The Japan Institute of International Affairs
• (Islamic State Khorasan Province) Dante Schulz, Stimson Center. On September 5, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) launched a suicide bombing attack in front of the Russian embassy in Kabul, leaving more than four dead. The attack underscored ISKP’s continued forays targeting civilians and Taliban security forces across Afghanistan. ISKP’s Propaganda Threatens Asia’s Security Apparatus
• (Nuclear Energy) World Nuclear News. Following a meeting on the sidelines of the first Summit of the European Political Community in Prague, the two leaders issued a joint statement saying they had discussed advancing bilateral cooperation, in particular on energy. British, French leaders in support of Sizewell C : New Nuclear
• (UN Security Council) Aude Darnal, Stimson Center. During his speech before the 2022 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 21, US President Joseph R. Biden affirmed the United States’ support for increasing the number of permanent and non-permanent representatives on the UN Security Council (UNSC). The president mentioned, in particular, the inclusion of countries from Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, in addition to “those nations [the United States has] long supported”―including Germany, Brazil, India, and Japan, who have formed the G4 and support each other’s bid to become permanent members. Biden and the United Nations Security Council reform: true commitment or tokenism?

WORLDS

• (Africa) October 2022. IEA. The future of Africa’s energy sector is important globally. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is actively supporting evidence-based energy policy making in African countries with the aim of achieving affordable and clean energy, in line with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. This includes ensuring universal access for all, promoting increased energy security and affordability, and accelerating the development of clean energy systems across Africa, through a sustainable and accelerated regional energy system transformation. Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of Africa – Analysis
• (China) October 6, 2022. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. China’s large structural trade surpluses are the consequence of internal economic imbalances, which means that any external pressure that results in a contraction of its trade surplus must be accommodated by shifts in these internal imbalances. How China Would Respond to Lower Exports
• (Israel – Palestine) October 7, 2022. Yossi Kuperwasser, JCPA. At the UN General Assembly in September, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid expressed the dream of reaching an arrangement with the Palestinians that would rid Israel of the reality of the “occupation,” while at the same time achieving security for Israel. His remarks show that he understands how far we are from a solution. However, Lapid’s formulations regarding the conditions for establishing a two-state solution for two peoples indicate too little familiarity with past discussions of the issue. The Problem with Lapid’s Weak Conditions for Establishing a Palestinian State
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 6, 2022. Sebastian Sprenger, Defense News. Ukrainian forces are working to find and target bases from which Russia has launched Iran-supplied explosive drones at civilian infrastructure, according to Maj. Gen. Borys Kremenetsky, the defense attache at the Ukrainian Embassy in the United States. Ukraine to target Russia’s bases of Iran-supplied explosive drones
• (USA) October 6, 2022. Caroline Freund, PIIE. At a time of soaring price increases in the United States, inflation in the US import sector has been soaring the most. Import price inflation in the first half of 2022 was in the double digits, above US consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures inflation. Excess demand for certain imported goods is playing a big role, but so are supply shortages caused by temporary business closures overseas and shipping delays associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Correctly identifying the culprit for misaligned demand and supply, and hence rising prices, is central to understanding the type and extent of policy intervention needed. Using movements in prices and quantities of specific goods, the analysis presented in this Policy Brief shows that the increase in import price inflation has been driven to the same or a greater extent by demand compared with supply constraints. The results have important implications for policies to help reduce the supply and demand imbalance and thus tame inflation. Soaring demand is driving double-digit import price inflation in the United States

A.M. (ITALIAN TIME)

TOPICS

• (Defense – Military – Security) October 6, 2022. Mike Yeo, Defense News. Japan is conducting trials of locally built wheeled armored vehicles in hopes of developing a family of vehicles using a common platform. Japan tests new armored vehicles in bid for common platform
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 6, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. The Army’s mixed reality goggle is headed to soldiers in a three-step process in which developers expect two early versions released next year will help with redesigns for a third version to roll out across the Army. New rollout for the Army’s $22 billion ‘mixed reality’ combat goggles
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 6, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. The U.S. Army has a vision to field a new ground system by the end of the decade that will use artificial intelligence and machine learning to help automate processes and cut the time it takes to identify a far-off threat and decide how best to engage it. Army developing TITAN system to improve sensor-to-shooter timeline
• (Geo-Energy) October 6, 2022. Ben Cahill, CSIS. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) has agreed to cut production by two million barrels per day (b/d) in a move driven by geopolitics as well as market fundamentals. Following two years of gradual production increases, OPEC+ has changed tack and is defending against downside risks. The group is also pushing back against efforts by oil-importing states to shape the market, including the proposed price cap on Russian oil and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases. It is a risky move. Higher oil prices could worsen global economic woes and alienate importing countries, and the U.S.-Saudi relationship will deteriorate. OPEC+ Deepens Producer-Consumer Rift
• (Geo-Energy) October 6, 2022. Jon B. Alterman, Joseph Majkut, Ben Cahill, CSIS. On Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) announced a two million barrels per day (b/d) production cut and an extension of the cooperation agreement between the core OPEC countries, Russia, and other producers through 2023. A worsening economic outlook and declining oil prices in the past few months created strong incentives for OPEC+ to cut output, but the move had geopolitical drivers as well. Ahead of proposed EU sanctions and a potential price cap on Russian oil exports, Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC+ producers are trying to reassert control of the market. They explained the decision in technocratic, market management terms, but the cut defied extensive lobbying from the White House and was interpreted by many as a move to support Russia. OPEC+ wants to gain the upper hand as Western policymakers are poised to impose another round of sanctions on a major oil producer. What Did Saudi Arabia Just Do?
• (Geo-Energy) October 6, 2022. Atlantic Council. On Wednesday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC+, a group that includes Persian Gulf countries and Russia, agreed to reduce production by two million barrels per day in order to keep prices high amid concerns about a recession. The news sparked a strong backlash from the United States—particularly after US President Joe Biden had visited Saudi Arabia this summer in an effort to repair ties—with reports indicating that the Biden administration may be rethinking its engagement with oil-producing Venezuela. (The White House quickly denied any policy change toward Caracas.). Experts react: How the OPEC+ oil-production cuts will shake up geopolitics and energy security – Atlantic Council
• (Health & Technological Innovation) October 6, 2022. Mark Melchionna, Health IT Analytics. Researchers from Houston Methodist created an artificial intelligence (AI) model that can successfully predict hospitalization outcomes among dementia patients, leading to improved timeliness of care, care coordination, and resource allocation. AI Model Predicts Hospitalization Outcomes Among Dementia Patients
• (Health & Technological Innovation) October 6, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics.  A study published last month in Nature Metabolism shows that a machine learning (ML)-based computational platform can identify specific metabolic targets in ovarian cancer, which could be used in personalized treatment therapies. Machine-Learning Model Can Help Identify Ovarian Cancer Treatment Targets
• (International Telecommunications Union) October 7, 2022. Bart Hogeveen, The Strategist. On 29 September, member states of the International Telecommunications Union voted to elect Doreen Bogdan-Martin as the organisation’s next secretary-general. Bogdan-Martin—a US national who’s served in the ITU since 1994—was in contention for the top job with Rashid Ismailov, a former Russian deputy minister and executive at Huawei, Nokia and Ericsson. US candidate beats Russian to secure top UN telecommunications job
• (Nord Stream 1 – Nord Stream 2) October 6, 2022. Sean Monaghan, CSIS. Last week’s attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea brought to life a challenge which is fast becoming ubiquitous in an era of strategic competition: so-called hybrid attacks, threats, or warfare. Also referred to as “gray zone” aggression, the purpose is to cause similar damage to conventional attacks—without any of the consequences. Five Steps NATO Should Take after the Nord Stream Pipeline Attack

WORLDS

• (Brazil) October 5, 2022. Diana Roy, Council on Foreign Relations. Brazil’s presidential election is down to two polarizing candidates, and experts say the runoff will be a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies. Bolsonaro vs. Lula: What’s at Stake in Brazil’s 2022 Election
• (East Asia) October 6, 2022. C. Randall Henning, East Asia Forum. Southeast Asian economies, like emerging markets and developing countries globally, are anticipating a rocky financial transition out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid tightening of monetary policy in the United States and the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are causing a global recession and threatening further capital outflows from emerging markets and developing countries. East Asia’s precautionary financing fix
• (India – Australia) October 7, 2022. Sarosh Bana, ,The Strategist. There has been a discernible upturn in India–Australia defence ties in recent months, with increased interaction between the two maritime nations through bilateral and multilateral military exercises. India–Australia defence ties grow in the face of rising strategic challenges
• (Indonesia) October 7, 2022. David Engel, The Indonesian government’s announcement on 27 September of its agreed 2023 defence budgetary allocation leaves Indonesia no closer to having a military capable of wielding a ‘minimum essential force’ (MEF) by 2024, let alone, on its current trajectory, of transforming into the powerful nation envisaged in President Joko Widodo’s 2016 defence white paper or his more recent 25-year grand plan for the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI). Widodo’s defence budget won’t give Indonesia the force it needs
• (Iran) October 6, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for Study of War. Iran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in stoking the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Iran Crisis Update, October 6
• (Iran) October 6, 2022. Javad Heiran-Nia, Atlantic Council. Revolutions tend to have lofty ideals, but the reality of governance often falls short of those aspirations. The 1979 Islamic Revolution was no exception. It was based on the ideals of gaining independence from foreign superpowers and achieving freedom, democracy, and justice, as well as fighting internal tyranny and supporting oppressed peoples. Forty-three years later, however, many of these goals have not been reached. The institutional roots of Iran’s protests
• (Maldives) October 7, 2022. John Kachtik, The Interpreter. From 2014 to 2018, more people departed the Maldives to join with Islamic State than from any other country. In total, this figure is estimated at 250 men and women from a country of only 500,000. Most who went died. The surviving women and children, around 50, are today detained in the Al Hol and Roj camps in northeast Syria. Maldives: the legacy of Islamic State
• (North Korea) October 7, 2022. Khang X. Vu, The Interpreter. Less than two months since North Korea declared victory over Covid-19, the country is again sending missiles flying – with one salvo passing over Japan for the first time since 2017. There are continued signs that a seventh nuclear test could soon be carried out, as well as a new law saying that North Korea would launch a pre-emptive atomic strike if its nuclear command and control system were in danger. Chairman Kim Jong-un affirmed that “there will no longer be any bargaining over our nuclear power”. Come what may, North Korea perseveres
• (North Korea) October 6, 2022. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, CSIS. Between 6:01 a.m. and 6:23 a.m. on October 6, 2022, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles from the Samsok district in Pyongyang into the sea between Korea and Japan. At around 2:00 p.m. in the afternoon, eight North Korean jets and four bombers crossed the special reconnaissance line near the inter-Korean border and conducted air-to-surface drills. North Korea Continues Provocations
• (Russia) October 6, 2022. Vadim Shtepa, The Jamestown Foundation. Many observers have long noted the paradox that the so-called “Russian Federation” is in fact no federation at all. It cannot be compared with well-known federations around the world—such as the United States or Germany—where the authorities of the states and lands are freely elected by their inhabitants. Russia’s Inside-Out Federation
• (Russia) October 6, 2022. Pavel Luzin, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s attempts to escalate the political situation and prevent defeat on the battlefield through mobilization, nuclear blackmail and possibly even sabotage on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea raise the question: How do all these factors influence the Russian defense budget? Russia’s Skyrocketing Defense Spending, 2022–2023
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 6, 2022. Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6
• (Russia – Ukraine – GUAM) October 6, 2022. Paul Goble, The Jamestown Foundation. Twenty-five years ago this month, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed the GUAM consultative forum to counter Russian efforts to keep them within Moscow’s orbit via the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and to promote their own integration with the democratic West (Guam-organization.org, accessed October 5). Since then, the group has had a checkered history, gaining and then losing Uzbekistan as a member and failing to attract other members, including Turkey and Poland. Putin’s War in Ukraine Leading to Revival of GUAM
• (Ukraine) October 6, 2022. Miranda Patrucic, Alexandra Gillies, Norman Eisen, and Lilly Blumenthal, Brookings. Estimates of the cost of rebuilding Ukraine range from $100 to 750 billion. As seen in post-cold war Europe, and more recently in Afghanistan and Iraq, anti-corruption programs are often not prioritized nor adequately funded during reconstruction. This dynamic has contributed to sprawling corruption and, in turn, wasted money, disenfranchised citizens, and fertile ground for continued conflict. Rebuilding Ukraine is not just an opportunity to help the country recover from a devastating war but also opens a door for innovation in building anti-corruption mechanisms from the ground up. Investigative journalism is essential for Ukraine reconstruction and anti-corruption
• (Ukraine – NATO) October 6, 2022. Steven Pifer, Atlantic Council. Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bogus September 30 annexation of four partially-occupied Ukrainian regions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially applied for fast-track NATO membership. The Ukrainian leader’s desire is understandable, but his timing is questionable. Zelenskyy should instead continue to press NATO members to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defeat Russia’s invasion, while also seeking firm commitments to help Ukraine build a modern military capable of deterring a future Russian attack. Ukraine’s top NATO priority should be weapons, not fast-track membership
• (USA) October 6, 2022. Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings. Almost two years into his presidency, U.S. President Joe Biden’s hopes that his lifetime of foreign policy experience in Washington would make national security a natural political strength have encountered rough seas. After a reasonably good start in early 2021, his popularity took a nosedive that summer and has not really recovered, remaining around 40 percent or less ever since. The botched Afghanistan withdrawal and unseemly unveiling of the AUKUS deal took the sheen off his young presidency that year. COVID-19’s persistence, inflation’s return, and the Ukraine war have since taken a further toll. Most of the latter scourges may not have been his fault, but incumbents are rewarded or penalized for what happens on their watches, whether fair or not. Two cheers for Biden’s national security record
• (USA) October 6, 2022. Tonantzin Carmona, Brookings. In March 2021, Congress passed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP), which injected $1.9 trillion into the economy. This included $350 billion in State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds—a highly flexible source of support for state, city, county, and tribal governments.  Ensuring equitable distribution of American Rescue Plan funds: A case study of the Latino Community Foundation 
• (USA – China – Taiwan) October 6, 2022. CSIS. Normally U.S. foreign policy is precise in the outcome it seeks, but quite flexible on modalities to accomplish it. But when it comes to Taiwan and cross-strait politics, the United States has had an unusual inversion of its normal predilections. When it comes to the future of Taiwan and its relations with China, the United States’ position has been consistent: leave it to Beijing and Taipei to work out a political solution that is acceptable to both parties. The United States just insists that this process be conducted through diplomacy, not coercion—in this case, precise in modalities, but not in outcome. Are Washington and Beijing on a Collision Course over Taiwan?