Geostrategic environment (october 3, 2022)

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

The Global Eye’s daily briefs – Editor, The Global Eye

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

• (Assistance in Fragile Contexts) September 30, 2022. Ed Laws, Samuel Sharp, Pablo Yanguas, ODI. There is an urgent need to identify approaches, frameworks, and tools for the provision of aid in challenging environments and in response to different drivers of violence and instability. There is also a growing consensus, amongst international partners, on the importance of more adaptive ways of working. But there is less detail in the current literature on how adaptive principles and processes can be applied in response to different kinds of fragility, and whether different settings might present distinct challenges and opportunities. This report aims to address these gaps through comparative case study analysis. While the report draws principally on case studies in Libya and Lebanon, the authors draw out the relevance of these lessons for future assistance to Afghanistan and other fragile contexts.  Adapting to fragility: Lessons from practitioners
• (Cities) September 30, 2022. Stefaan G. Verhulst, GCN. As artificial intelligence grows more ubiquitous, its potential and the challenges it presents are coming increasingly into focus. How we balance the risks and opportunities is shaping up as one of the defining questions of our era. In much the same way that cities have emerged as hubs of innovation in culture, politics, and commerce, so they are defining the frontiers of AI governance. Debate: How to stop our cities from being turned into AI jungles
• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Neal Brenner, Infosecurity. COVID-19 ushered in an unprecedented time for IT professionals at all levels. Fighting the disease meant gathering, storing and organizing a tremendous volume of data. One patient might receive several PCR tests for infection, be hospitalized for the disease, then receive three vaccination shots (two doses and a booster). Each interaction, plus any medications and procedures, could be recorded by multiple organizations like hospitals, health insurers and state or county public health departments. #HowTo: Protect COVID-19 Data from Breaches and Theft
• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The UK’s privacy and data watchdog has fined four companies a total of £370,000 for breaking local privacy laws. ICO Fines Four “Predatory” Privacy-Invading Firms
• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The second largest school district in the US has warned that hackers have begun posting data they claim to have stolen from the institution last month. LAUSD: Hackers Have Posted Stolen Data Online
• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. An Illinois couple have been sentenced to several years behind bars after running a near decade-long fraud scheme making them millions of dollars. Healthcare Company Owners Get Jail Time for $7m Fraud Scheme
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Rojoef Manuel, The Defense Post. NATO and the Netherlands have conducted a live-firing exercise in which over 30 companies and organizations showcased their counter-drone innovations. NATO, Netherlands Conduct Counter-Drone Live-Testing Exercise
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Rojoef Manuel, The Defense Post. The UK Royal Navy’s HMS Dauntless has completed three months of sea trials to assess its new engines. UK Royal Navy’s HMS Dauntless Receives New Engines, Completes Tests
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Joe Saballa, The Defense Post. The Taiwanese Navy has inducted a new, indigenously-made amphibious warship to transport troops and military supplies to vulnerable islands. Taiwan Inducts New Amphibious Warship
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. The Defense Post. India unveiled on Monday its first batch of locally-made attack helicopters, designed primarily for use in high-altitude areas like the Himalayas where its troops clashed with China in 2020– Eyeing China, India Unveils High-Altitude Helicopters (thedefensepost.com)
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Joe Saballa. Northrop Grumman has completed the production and delivery of 100,000 precision guidance kits (PGK) to the US Army. Northrop Delivers 100,000 Precision Guidance Kits to US Army
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Joe Saballa, The Defense Post. Hyundai Rotem has entered into a collaborative agreement with Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace to develop unmanned turrets for next-generation military vehicles. S. Korea, Norway to Develop Unmanned Turrets for Next-Gen Tanks
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Rojoef Manuel, The Defense Post. The US Army Research Laboratory has extended its contract with Palantir Technologies to continue advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) services for the US Department of Defense. US DoD Extends AI, Machine Learning Contract With Palantir Technologies
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. José Higuera, Defense News. Colombia is launching a $2 billion shipbuilding program that would see its Navy acquire five frigates. Colombia inks deal that could see Damen build five Sigma frigates
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 3, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. L3Harris Technologies agreed to buy Viasat’s tactical data link business for roughly $1.96 billion, a move officials with the defense and IT company say will extend its reach into the Pentagon’s ambitious communications overhaul known as Joint All-Domain Command and Control. L3Harris to buy Viasat’s Link 16 portfolio, expand JADC2 offerings
• (Digital & Tech) September 30, 2022. Chris Teale, GCN. Legislation introduced by four House Democrats would place “strong limits” on the use of facial recognition technology by law enforcement agencies. House bill limits police use of facial recognition
• (Digital & Tech) September 30, 2022. Chris Teale, GCN. A new initiative by the Alliance for Digital Innovation (ADI) looks to encourage and support state governments adopting innovative technology, including cloud-based solutions. States get helping hand with cloud, cyber adoption
• (Fiscal Policy – Income Inequalities) September 30, 2022. Hazel Granger, Laura Abramovsky, Jessica Pudussery, ODI. This report provides a comprehensive and updated survey of the available evidence on the combined impact of taxes and social spending (cash transfers and health and education in-kind transfers) on within-country income inequality and poverty. It also looks at studies of individual fiscal instruments across countries with different income levels. Fiscal policy and income inequality: the role of taxes and social spending
• (Food Crisis) September 30, 2022. Kristalina Georgieva, Sebastian Sosa, Bjorn Rother, IMF blog. Food insecurity has been rising since 2018. Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the increasing frequency and severity of climate shocks, regional conflicts and the pandemic were all taking their toll, disrupting food production and distribution, and driving up the cost of feeding people and families. Global Food Crisis Demands Support for People, Open Trade, Bigger Local Harvests
• (Illicit arms – Organized crime – Armed conflict) September 14, 2022. UNIDIR. Illicit arms and ammunition link conflict to crime as well as crime to conflict. Illicit arms can both enable and fuel an armed conflict, while different conflict phases provide opportunities for the diversion of arms and a potentially lucrative income source for organized arms trafficking networks. To date, there has been limited research examining the linkages between all three of these security challenges. Addressing the Linkages Between Illicit Arms, Organized Crime and Armed Conflict
• (Semiconductors) October 3, 2022. East Asia Forum. As the old aphorism goes, governments are terrible at picking winners, but losers are great at picking governments. It’s advice which many governments seem to have forgotten as they start using taxpayers’ money to build industries that are deemed to be vital. The empty modern promise of sovereign capability
• (Semiconductors) October 2, 2022. Samuel Goodman, East Asia Forum. The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have limited the supply and increased the cost of semiconductors. One of the clearest impacts of the chip shortage has been on the automotive sector. Re-establishing some semblance of normality within the semiconductor supply chain has, as a result of this and similar shortages, moved from theoretical discussions to a sharp-edged policy question. Onshoring semiconductors is a chipped ambition
• (Sustainable Educational Development) September 30, 2022. Keith M. Lewin, ODI. This report identifies and addresses the financing challenge for education systems in low- and low middle-income countries, with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a low-financing trap which has meant that many countries, especially in SSA, have had static levels of public investment in education as a proportion of government budgets and of gross domestic product over the last two decades. Escaping the low-financing trap: Strategies for sustainable educational development in low-income countries
• (The Science of Where) October 3, 2022. Geospacial World. A decade ago, discussion of Artificial Intelligence was predominantly found in science fiction, now it is easily accessible using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The new buzzword is quantum, over the last few years it has hit news headlines and is being a large area of focus for companies like Google and IBM, with the UK Government investing millions of pounds in innovation projects for quantum since 2019. Keep an Eye on Quantum Technology
• (The Science of Where) October 3, 2022. Geospacial World. This wildfire season has been one of the worst since the turn of the century. Blazes swept through 660,000 hectares in Europe, more than 298,000 of which were in Spain alone, according to data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Risk of Forest Fires to Increase Threefold
• (The Science of Where) October 2, 2022. Geospacial World. Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) Ministry of Science and Technology; Minister of State (Independent Charge) Ministry of Earth Science; MoS PMO, Personnel, Public Grievances, Pensions, Space and Atomic Energy, Dr Jitendra Singh today said, geospatial technology has become one of the key enablers in socio-economic development by enhancing productivity, ensuring sustainable infrastructure planning, effective administration, and aiding the farm sector. Indian Minister of Science and Technology Briefs Media About 2nd UNWGIC 2022

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan) September 30, 2022. Alastair McKechnie, Mark Bowden, Ed Laws, ODI. This short paper summarises the overarching lessons from ODI’s Lessons for Peace (L4P) project, a three-year research and advisory platform that has supported international partners to Afghanistan with evidence, advice, and analysis. It then takes stock of the current challenges facing the country, before outlining eight steps the international community can take in order to support future peace and the needs of the Afghan people. Lessons for peace: engaging with Afghanistan after four decades of conflict and one year of new Taliban administration
• (Africa) September 12, 2022. Karim Karaki, Pamella Eunice Ahairwe, ECDPM. Health systems in Africa are overdependent on international markets. Africa imports more than 90% of the pharmaceutical products and 99% of the vaccines. While it is costly for individual countries to manufacture pharmaceutical products, adopting a regional approach could help solve this problem. Regional manufacturing hubs can benefit from economies of scale and exploit the potential opportunities that African Continental Free Trade Area and the regional economic communities provide. Operationalising pharma manufacturing hubs in Africa: Policy options for the EU
• (Africa) September 26, 2022. InterRegional for Strategic Analysis. Climate change is a global phenomenon from the point of view of its geographical spread and accompanying effects. Although Africa is not one of the parties most responsible for this phenomenon—it produces 2-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions—it is one of the parties most harmed by the negative effects and repercussions of climate change at various levels, in a manner that directly affects the reality of nation states and the African continent’s aspirations related to Agenda 2063. Africa has a promising opportunity to crystallize its position and demands regarding climate change, especially since Egypt is hosting COP27, the Conference of the Parties that are signatories to the UN Convention on Climate Change, in Sharm El-Sheikh this coming November. Growing Risks: What are the Potential Effects of Climate Change on African Countries?
• (Burkina Faso) October 3, 2022. The Defense Post. Burkina Faso’s junta leader agreed to step down on Sunday, religious and community leaders said, two days after army officers announced his ouster in a coup that sparked internal unrest and international condemnation. Burkina Junta Leader Resigns, Flees After Coup
• (China) October 3, 2022. Akhilesh Sati, Lydia Powell, Vinod Kumar, ORF. The emergence of China and India as major forces in the global economy is the most significant economic development in the last three decades. The simultaneous emergence of two large economies has led to the perception, at least amongst more casual observers, that China and India are similar. Though China and India started at almost the same level of per-person incomes three decades ago and shared the goal of poverty alleviation through economic growth, their development trajectories and achievements have diverged significantly. China’s Solar Value Chain: The Early Drivers
• (China – Russia) October 3, 2022. Cheng Li, China US Focus. The whole world, including China, has been distressed by the troubling developments in Europe, especially the scale, scope, and devastating ramifications of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. As the second largest economy in the world, China has been hit badly by both the devastating impact of Russia’s horrific invasion of Ukraine on the global economy and by the potential (and actual) U.S.- and NATO-led secondary economic sanctions levied against China because of Beijing’s strong ties with Moscow. The Reshuffling Report
• (DR Congo) October 3, 2022. The Defense Post. Fighters from a notorious militia hacked 14 civilians to death in an attack in eastern DR Congo, local officials said Sunday, in the latest violence to hit the turbulent region. 14 Civilians Killed in East DR Congo Militia Attack
• (Europe) September 19, 2022. Alexei Jones, Katja Sergejeff, ECDPM. In this brief, we look at the state of play of the Team Europe Initiatives (TEIs) and how the EU is addressing some of the key conceptual and operational aspects. The Team Europe approach and initiatives have undeniably gained traction and political buy-in. In an era of increased geopolitical competition, from the start, there has been a strong consensus on the need for the EU’s development cooperation to be more visible and have more impact. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and beyond the positive dynamic created by Team Europe and TEIs there is now the need to move from words to deeds, especially as TEIs will also be the main channel for delivering on the promises of the Global Gateway. Half-time analysis: How is Team Europe doing?
• (Europe – China) October 1, 2022. Manoj Joshi, ORF. A report released on 21 September by the European Union (EU) Chamber of Commerce in China paints a gloomy picture of the future scenario. It says that many companies are now looking to shift planned and future investments to other markets that provided “greater reliability and predictability”. Europe distances itself from China
• (India) October 3, 2022. Pooja Pandey, Satish Rai, ORF. The framers of the Constitution of India, which came into force in 1950, put faith in the State to provide free and compulsory education for all children up to 14 years of age. Article 45 of the Constitution was a directive principle for the State to begin doing so within a period of ten years from 1950. Yet today, more than 50 years since, India has yet to fulfil its promise to its young children. Early Childhood Care and Education: ‘The Elephant in the Room’ No More
• (India – G20) October 1, 2022. Apoorva Lalwani, ORF. The G20 established itself as a significant global economic governance body after its success at stabilising the financial market in the 2008 Global Financial crisis through a coordinated fiscal and monetary apparatus. Fast forwarding 2020, the pandemic pushed millions into poverty and deprivation. Many countries, both advanced and emerging, rolled out macroeconomic fiscal packages to curtail the effects. In its aftermath,  multiple concerns are plaguing the global economy, such as uneven economic recovery, an increase in inflationary pressures, the threat of a sovereign debt crisis, and supply chain disruptions which have been further exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India’s G20 Presidency and the Macroeconomic Dilemma
• (Indonesia) October 3, 2022.  Grace Dungey, Mongabay. Last year, Indonesia’s Supreme Court ordered one of the world’s largest palm oil companies to make severance payments worth tens of thousands of dollars, handing palm oil workers an important victory in a labor dispute. Labor groups seek to build on Indonesian palm oil court win in new cases
• (Iran) October 3, 2022. The Defense Post. Clashes in Iran’s southeast claimed the lives of five members of the Revolutionary Guards, state media reported Sunday, raising the death toll from violent unrest there two days earlier. Iran Says Five Guards, Including Two Colonels, Killed After Clashes
• (Iran) October 2, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Iran Crisis Update, October 2
• (Israel – Türkiye) October 2, 2022. Anadolu Agency. The Israeli government on Sunday approved the appointment of Irit Lillian as Israel’s new ambassador to Türkiye. Israel approves appointment of new ambassador to Turkiye
• (Japan) October 3, 2022. Atsushi Nakajima, RIETI. Because of the prolonged COVID-19 crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the economic sanctions imposed against Russia, supply constraints have emerged with respect to some goods and energy and other resources, fueling global inflation. Japan is no exception, with corporate goods prices in the country recording a particularly steep rise. The Corporate Goods Price Index, which has stayed above 9% since January 2022, is registering the highest growth since 1980, when the second oil shock took place. Business Investment and Wage Growth are the Keys to Overcoming Inflation and Fiscal Balance Deterioration
• (Japan – North Korea) October 3, 2022. TASS. Tokyo has been striving to normalize diplomatic relations with North Korea and solve problems around Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in a policy speech at a plenary session of Japan’s lower house of parliament on Monday. Japan seeking to normalize diplomatic ties with North Korea, PM says
• (Mideast NATO) October 3, 2022. Crisis Group. Israel would like to forge a military alliance with the Gulf Arab monarchies as part of its strategy for checking Iran’s power projection in the region. For Gulf capitals, however, the Israeli ambitions risk too much and offer too little. The Myth of an Emerging “Mideast NATO”
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. The Defense Post. Germany, Denmark, and Norway will supply Ukraine with 16 armored howitzer artillery systems from next year, Berlin said Sunday, as Kyiv seeks heavier weapons to boost its fightback against Russia. Germany, Denmark, Norway to Give Ukraine 16 Slovak Zuzana-2 Howitzers
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Asmaa El Safty, InterRegional for Strategic Analysis. In a televised speech on September 21, Russian President Putin called for a partial mobilization and the drafting of 300,000 Russian reservists in order to strengthen the Russian army’s battlefront capabilities. These moves came after the Russian army incurred heavy losses in several areas of eastern Ukraine, particularly Kharkiv—not to mention the Ukrainian army’s success in freeing many of its POWs from the Russian Army. Leadership Confusion: What Comes After President Putin Announces Partial Military Mobilization?
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 2, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, combined with the Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2
• (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) October 3, 2022. TASS. The member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are serious about switching to settlements in national currencies, but it takes time. Russian presidential envoy for the SCO affairs and Foreign Ministry ambassador-at-large Bakhtiyer Khakimov told TASS on Monday. SCO states serious about switching to settlements in national currencies — Russian envoy
• (Somalia) October 3, 2022. The Defense Post. The Somali government announced on Monday a top Al-Shabaab militant, who had a $3-million US bounty on his head, had been killed in a joint air strike in southern Somalia. Top Al-Shabaab Leader Killed in Joint Operation: Somalia Govt
• (Syria) October 3, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to stress his intention to establish a “safe zone” in northern Syria to return Syrian refugees in Turkey to Syria. This comes at a time when there is continuing pressure from the Turkish opposition to return these refugees to their country.  Erdogan: One Million Syrian Refugees Will Return to their Country in a Few Months
• (Syria) October 3, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Amid remarkable U.S. interest in the al-Hol camp in the northern countryside of Hassakeh, which houses ISIS families, the Australian government announced the launch of a mission to “rescue dozens of Australians” trapped in the al-Hol camp controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Australia Launches ‘Rescue Dozens of Australians’ Mission from Syria
• (Syria) October 3, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The head of the European Union’s mission to Syria, Dan Stoenescu, revealed the reasons behind his visit to areas under the control of the Assad regime in September. European Official Talks Visit to Syria, Normalization with Regime
• (Syria) October 3, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Foreign and Expatriates Minister Faisal al-Mekdad met Sunday the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of India Ausaf Sayeed and the accompanying delegation and discussed bilateral relations between the two countries and means of bolstering them in various areas. Mekdad, Sayeed Stress Deep Ties Between Syria and India
• (Syria) October 3, 2022. The Syrian Observer. President Bashar al-Assad said that with the opening of the first phase of the photovoltaic power project in the industrial city of Adra, Syria needs “real investors, not fundraisers or deal-makers like most of those who call themselves businessmen these times.”. Syria Needs Real Businessmen, not Fundraisers and Cronies
• (Syria) October 3, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Salih Muslim, the co-chairman of the Democratic Union Party, the main party of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, has rejected the PYD having any links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). PYD Co-Chair: Divorce Inevitable Between the Syrian Regime, Türkiye
• (Tanzania) October 1, 2022.  Laurel Sutherland, Mongabay. The East African Court of Justice (EACJ) has ruled in favor of the Tanzanian government after a five-year legal battle between Maasai communities and the state over evictions that took place in 2017. Maasai villages lose court case on evictions to create wildlife game reserve
• (Türkiye – Libya) October 3, 2022. Anadolu Agency.  A high-level Turkish delegation arrived in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Monday for an official visit. High-level Turkish delegation arrives in Libya for official visit
• (UK – China) October 1, 2022. Tim Summers, East Asia Forum. While the campaign for the UK prime ministership was more about domestic issues than foreign policy, China still made fleeting appearances. Prime Minister Liz Truss had long pushed for a more ‘hawkish’ approach to China, commenting in the past about the need for the United Kingdom to avoid ‘dependency’ on the People’s Republic. Truss lacking in UK–China relations
• (USA) September 19, 2022. United States Climate Alliance. The bipartisan U.S. Climate Alliance today released its annual report, Full Speed Ahead: States Delivering the Next Generation of Climate Action, which finds that its 24 states and territories – representing 58% of the U.S. economy and 54% of the U.S. population – are tackling climate change while achieving lower levels of harmful local air pollution, delivering more energy savings to homes and businesses, employing more clean energy workers, preparing more effectively for climate impacts and disasters, and generating a higher proportion of electricity from zero-carbon sources than the rest of the country. US Climate Alliance 2022 Annual Report Finds Its States Pollute Less, Save More Energy, and Employ More Clean Energy Workers Than Rest of Country
• (USA – Turkey) October 3, 2022. U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen submitted on Friday to the defence budget of the Senate an amendment that creates new conditions for Turkey to purchase or modernize its F-16 fighter jets. U.S. Amendment Blocks F-16 Sales to Turkey if Jets to be Used Against SDF