Geostrategic environment (october 14, 2022)

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

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All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (Australia)  and , The Strategist. When it comes to Australia’s policy in the Pacific islands, what’s first needed is a changed mindset. We need to recognise that the region is key terrain. It’s essential for US and Australian defence; it’s not a secondary theatre where we do ‘just enough to keep the locals calm and on side’. What we do in the Pacific islands region will tie directly to success or failure in a war with China over Taiwan. Australia needs more defence grunt in its Pacific policy
  • (Brazil) Council on Foreign Relations. Ahead of the October 30 runoff, please join our panelists for a discussion of Brazil’s presidential elections, the implications for Brazilian democracy, and how the results will affect relations with the United States. A Test for Democracy: Brazilian Presidential Elections
  • (China) Global Times. The Communist Party of China (CPC) will convene its 20th National Congress on October 16 to bring China’s development to the next stage. This congress is being held after China has accomplished its first centenary goal of building xiaokang – a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2021 – and to start the second centenary goal of building a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049. The rising way – How did CPC lead China from poverty to xiaokang?
  • (China) Cheng Li, Brookings. China’s political clock is winding fast toward the convening of the 20th Party Congress. Both the Chinese public and overseas China-watching community will rightly pay close attention to the leadership lineup, which will be announced after the meeting. Thus far, there have been no leaks of important information surrounding this forthcoming leadership reshuffle. Xi’s three difficulties: The leadership lineup at the 20th Party Congress
  • (China – Kazakhstan) Global Times. Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Thursday in Astana while attending the sixth summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), during which he stressed that both countries should implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, continue to firmly support each other’s core interests, share development opportunities and safeguard common strategic security and development interests. Chinese Vice President stresses firm support of both countries’ core interests in meeting with Kazakh president
  • (Hong Kong) Debby Chan, East Asia Forum. Since the introduction of the national security law (NSL) in Hong Kong in July 2020, mass protests have evaporated, civil society has dissolved and elections have only accommodated patriotic candidates. Hong Kong’s emerging yellow movement
  • (Iran) Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Expanding protests could strain Iranian state security services beyond their capabilities to respond in the coming days. Iran Crisis Update, October 13
  • (Israel – Lebanon) Maha Yahya, Carnegie Middle East Center. On Tuesday, Lebanon and Israel reached a historic agreement that formally ends a dispute between the two countries over their maritime borders.  Lebanon and Israel’s Maritime Deal Suspends Them Between No War and No Peace
  • (Israel – Lebanon) Rodger Shanahan, The Interpreter. There has been little to cheer about of late in terms of positive developments towards peace in the Middle East. But this week, the news came from an unexpected source – relations between Lebanon and Israel. The good oil: Israel and Lebanon strike a border deal
  • (Israel – Lebanon) Orna Mizrahi, INSS. The agreement between Israel and Lebanon is an important milestone in the relations between the two countries, which have been in an active and ongoing conflict for decades. The Agreement with Lebanon Helps Advance Israel’s Interests in the Region
  • (NATO) Global Times. As the international community closely watches the conflict between Russia and Ukraine with increasing worries over the use of nuclear weapons, NATO’s secretive Nuclear Planning Group met on Thursday with the military pact planning to hold a nuclear exercise next week. Analysts said NATO’s moves highlight the US’ purpose of showing a tough stance to Russia, which would further pour oil onto the fire and fan the flames of the escalating Ukraine crisis. NATO’s nuclear talks, exercises seek to escalate Ukraine crisis, exhaust Moscow, Kiev: analysts
  • (Pakistan) Syed Fazl-e-Haider, ,The Interpreter. The terrorist attack on a school van in the Swat district of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province this week confirms the return of the extremist groups that had imposed their anti-education agenda on the region a decade ago by bombing schools, particularly schools for girls, banning girls’ education and attacking students. Enemies of education are back in Malala’s hometown?
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. The front lines cutting across the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions do not coincide with the Russian-declared “borders” vis-à-vis Ukraine. Under the treaties on the two regions’ incorporation as Russian oblasts (September 30) and the corresponding additions to Russia’s constitution (in force since October 5), the borders of these oblasts now represent the Russian Federation’s border with Ukraine (referenced only as “a neighboring state”). These Russian enactments, moreover, use the same wording with regard to Russia’s western border in the annexed Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (TASS, September 30–October 5). Russia ‘Normalizing’ Occupation Regime in Southern Ukraine (Part Two)
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. When former US President Ronald Reagan described the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) as “an evil empire” in 1983, he did not so much transform the situation on the ground as he changed the way the nations and peoples within the Soviet Union and elsewhere viewed the country. Because Reagan described it as evil, the American leader provided a new reason for people within the USSR and around the world to fight it; because he described it as an empire, he made clear that it must be decolonized. Now, almost 40 years leader, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has done something analogous, albeit rhetorically less soaring than his American predecessor: Zelenskyy has reminded the peoples of the Russian Federation and the world that Vladimir Putin’s Russia is not only evil for its actions at home and abroad but also an empire that must be decolonized (President.gov.ua, September 29; for an informal English translation, see Window on Eurasia, October 9). Zelenskyy Defines Putin’s Russia as an Evil Empire
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Ian Williams, CSIS. In recent days, Russia has significantly escalated its air and missile raids against civilian targets in Ukraine, acts that showcase the cynicism and moral depravity of Vladimir Putin’s regime and its so-called special military operation. Russia Doubles Down on Its Failed Air Campaign
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Council on Foreign Relations. How does a war end? In this special episode, Why It Matters speaks with CFR President Richard Haass on the conflict in Ukraine. We ask if and how this war can come to a close and discuss what compromises might have to be made. Update on Ukraine, With Richard Haass: How Will It End?
  • (Taiwan) Bill Sharp, East Asia Forum. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen faces five security challenges that will test the depth of her political capital and possibly pit Taiwan’s military concerns against popular ones. These challenges include increasing the country’s self-sufficiency in weapons, strengthening popular support for the military, financing the defence budget and maintaining the will to fight through a credible defence strategy. Tsai needs new tactics to counter China
  • (Ukraine) Daniel F. Runde and Conor M. Savoy, CSIS. Ukraine Economic Reconstruction Commission
  • (USA) Megan A. BrownJonathan NaglerJames BisbeeAngela Lai, and Joshua A. Tucker, Brookings. Elon Musk’s recent effort to buy Twitter along with court fights over social media regulation in Florida and Texas have recharged the public conversation surrounding social media and political bias. Musk and his followers have suggested that Twitter release regular audits of Twitter’s algorithm—or that Twitter open source its algorithm—so independent parties can audit it for political bias. Echo chambers, rabbit holes, and ideological bias: How YouTube recommends content to real users
  • (USA) Timothy G. Massad and Howell Jackson, Brookings. For the past decade, the development of appropriate regulatory standards for the crypto industry has been hampered by interminable debates over whether particular digital assets are securities or commodities or something else. How to improve regulation of crypto today—without congressional action—and make the industry pay for it
  • (USA – China) Wang Qi, Global Times. Chinese officials and experts on Thursday denounced the US for its “outdated confrontational mentality” and hyping “external threat” to divert attention from domestic problems, and urged Washington to follow the principles of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, after the Biden administration described China as “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge” in its first formal national security strategy. Biden’s national security strategy hypes ‘China challenge,’ full of outdated confrontational mentality
  • (USA – Mexico) US Department of State. Remarks at the U.S.-Mexico High-Level Security Dialogue

 

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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