The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation
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All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye
P.M. (ITALIAN TIME)
TOPICS
- (Conflicts) October 10, 2022. Crisis Group. Each year Crisis Group publishes two Updates to complement its EU Watch List. The Updates identify crises and conflicts where the European Union and its member states can help enhance prospects for peace. This Update includes entries on DR Congo, the Horn of Africa, Sri Lanka, Ukraine and Venezuela. Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update
- (Cybersecurity) October 10, 2022. Beth Maundrill, Infosecurity. Facebook’s parent company, Meta, has identified over 400 malicious Android and iOS apps that target people in order to steal their Facebook login information. Facebook Login Details at Risk as Meta Identifies Over 400 Malicious Apps
- (Cybersecurity) October 10, 2022. James Coker, Infosecurity. More than nine in 10 (91%) cybersecurity professionals have experienced mental health challenges at work during the past two years, according to research by Australian cybersecurity services company Sekuro – 91% of Cyber Pros Experience Mental Health Challenges at Work
- (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Demi Starks, Emma De Angelis and Edward Mortimer, RUSI. How do public perceptions of foreign policy issues change in times of uncertainty, and what can they tell us about wider trends in defence and security? Episode 2: Supporting NATO: Public Opinion in Uncertain Times
- (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army, recognizing it will operate not just on land but also across air, sea, space and cyberspace, is releasing its first new doctrine in 40 years – US Army adopts new multidomain operations doctrine
- (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Textron Systems is bringing its latest unmanned ground vehicle with amphibious capabilities to the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual conference. Textron unveils its ground robot — that can swim
- (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022.
- (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. The Army recently received its first bundle of “mixed reality” goggles that the branch hopes can redefine individual soldier and squad warfighting. Army receives first batch of mixed reality goggles, more work ahead
- (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022.
- (Development/Economy/Governance) October 6, 2022. Adam Moe Fejerskov, DIIS. From pandemics to climate change to ever-growing humanitarian needs, humanity seems to be making very limited progress in tackling the structural causes of contemporary global crises. The result is a future of growing unknowns. Here, politics become increasingly experimental, as we struggle with unprecedented challenges and changes, leaving the fate of both planet and people to unproven technologies and uncertain policies. Today then, the realm of the experimental does not belong exclusively to the scientist, but increasingly to politicians and to political life – but with what implications? Experimental politics in a future of global crises
- (Human Rights) October 10, 2022. Chatham House. Global threats to the international rights regime today are multiple and complex. The bare power calculations of states’ national security, economic and diplomatic interests still present the primary challenge to compliance with human rights norms. Reclaiming human rights in a changing world order
- (Nuclear Energy) October 10, 2022. World Nuclear News. The Korean-designed APR-1400 unit, which reached initial criticality in September, will now undergo the process of gradually raising power levels – known as power ascension testing – while being continuously monitored and tested until maximum electricity production is reached. It is “close to commercial operation in the coming months”, its owner, Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC), said. Grid connection for third Barakah unit
- (Nuclear Eenergy) October 10, 2022. World Nuclear News. IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi called it “a temporary relief in a still untenable situation” and said a safety and security protection zone was urgently needed at, and around, the plant. Zaporizhzhia power supply restored, situation ‘remains fragile’
WORLDS
- (China – Africa) October 7, 2022. Aya Adachi, Francesca Ghiretti, MERICS. There are growing calls for Beijing to help tackle the world food crisis, but China has its own food security concerns. It sees a solution in boosting imports from Africa, but this is not without obstacles. “With a little help from my friends”: China turns to Africa to bolster food security
- (China – Central Asia) October 10, 2022. Yang Jiang, DIIS. After recent events in Afghanistan and Ukraine, Central Asia has become a crucial region for energy and transport. China, helped by its earlier initiatives in the region, is quickly becoming the biggest player, while Western countries lag behind in economic and strategic engagements. China leading the race for influence in Central Asia
- (Germany) October 10, 2022. Kevin Poireault, Infosecurity. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser could dismiss Arne Schoenbohm, president of the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) due to possible contact with Russian security agents, German media reported on Sunday, October 9, 2022, citing government sources. German Cybersecurity Chief Faces Sacking Over Possible Russia Ties – Infosecurity Magazine (infosecurity-magazine.com)
- (Iraq) October 5, 2022. Maria-Louise Clausen, Helle Malmvig, DIIS. Following the end of the US-led coalition’s combat mission in Iraq, NATO is taking on a more independent role. The presence of the NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) acts as an important signal and counterbalance to international, regional, and local actors in Iraq. However, NMI is also faced with both external and internal challenges. Mission Impossible?
- (Israel – Palestine) October 10, 2022. Chuck Freilich, The National Interest. Given the urgent need for a two-state settlement, Israel should pursue a revitalized peace process by building off the Abraham Accords. The Palestinian Tragedy Is Israel’s Too
- (Myanmar) October 10, 2022. Sreeparna Banerjee, Observer Research Foundation. Since the coup in 2021, Myanmar has grown into a warzone as several parts of the nation, particularly the Northwest and Southeast sections, have descended into conflict. Mayhem in Myanmar: An impetus to regional instability?
- (Russia) October 10, 2022. Zsolt Darvas, Catarina Martins, Bruegel. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Central Bank of Russia stopped publishing detailed trade data but continued releasing summary indicators, such as for the current-account surplus, which reached its highest-ever level in the second quarter of 2022. Russian foreign trade tracker
- (SADC Region) October 7, 2022. Ndeapo Wolf, Letitia Jentel, Deon Cloete, SAIIA. Given the shifting landscape brought on by the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and crises such as COVID-19, the SADC region has much to gain by strengthening the anticipatory and adaptive capacity of industrial policymaking. Anticipating change – Re-thinking SADC industrial policy
- (USA) October 10, 2022. John Gramlich, Khadijah Edwards, Pew Research Center. Around four-in-ten Black adults in the United States (39%) say Black Lives Matter has done the most to help Black people in recent years, far exceeding the share who say the same about other groups or organizations, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey – Black Lives Matter cited by Black adults as group that’s helped them the most
A.M. (ITALIAN TIME)
TOPICS
- (Development/Economy/Governance) October 5, 2022. Daniel Araya, Centre for International Governance Innovation. According to Oxford historian Peter Frankopan, we are witnessing the unravelling of the global order. In a period of history marked by a Western financial crisis, a global coronavirus pandemic, war in Europe, rising government debt and political instability across advanced democracies, the Western era is winding down. Indeed, the global order has been steadily moving toward a “post-American World” or “post-Western World” for some time. At the heart of this shift is the rise of China and the emergence of a multipolar system. America’s Global Dominance Is Ending: What Comes Next?
- (Future of War) October 6, 2022. Branka Marijan, Centre for International Governance Innovation. Some seven months into Russia’s current attack on Ukraine, the war is being characterized as “establishing principles for the twenty-first century.” In many ways, this conflict is being seen as a test case for the wars of the future. While it is too soon to draw specific lessons, some critical insights are already emerging. Russia’s War on Ukraine Is a Test Case for Future Conflict
- (Technological Innovation) October 3, 2022. Dan Ciuriak, Centre for International Governance Innovation. International institutional frameworks are creatures of their age — they reflect the political power relationships and technological and economic conditions of the day. Three technological breakthroughs in the late 2000s — deep learning through stacked neural nets; the introduction of the iPhone; and the application of graphics processing units, or GPUs, to neural nets — sent the amount of data collected globally soaring while enabling the tools to exploit that data. Those breakthroughs transformed data into the “new oil” — the essential capital asset of what would eventually be recognized as the data-driven economy. The Data-Driven Economy Raises New Challenges for Global Governance
WORLDS
- (Afghanistan) October 8, 2022. Aakriti Vinayak, Vivekananda International Foundation. “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”-Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. The recent developments in Afghanistan compel to acknowledge this off quoted statement. One year after the Taliban Takeover- Afghanistan in Crisis
- (Asia – USA) October 10, 2022. East Asia Forum. The United States’ economic and military power, and its global political leadership, were indispensable ingredients for economic development and strategic stability in East Asia in the decades following the Second World War. Even as debate rages about whether the writing’s on the wall for US strategic primacy in the region, there’s no likely future in which the United States doesn’t remain a major export market, a significant source of investment, ideas and popular culture and, for some, an important military partner, even in a more China-centric regional and global order. What Asia needs from America today
- (Australia) October 10, 2022. Cameron Hill, The Interpreter. For just the third time in almost four decades, a Labor government will bring down a new strategy to guide Australia’s international development efforts. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated “over the coming months, we are designing a new development policy, outlining how we will play our part in a world in an era of crisis – and how we will help developing countries without driving them into unsustainable debt.” This follows the Morrison government’s short-lived attempt to develop a long-term aid policy in the months prior to the pandemic and its announcement in mid-2020 of a two-year, interim strategy in response to devastation and disruption caused by Covid-19. A new aid strategy: purpose, priorities, and plumbing
- (Australia) October 10, 2022. Huon Curtis, The Strategist. In New York during United Nations climate week, Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen described the ‘enormous’ task Australia faced in moving industry towards decarbonisation. The new government’s proposed National Reconstruction Fund (NRF) is intended to push industry towards decarbonisation, strategic autonomy and resilience. The hard task will be to shift the economy from its heavy reliance on ideas and technologies from overseas, to building local capacity in industries of the future. While that might challenge some who suggest the fund is ‘picking winners’, in many respects it is the harbinger of an emerging global industrial policy paradigm. Time for Australia to take a big leap towards a decarbonised economy
- (Australia – Indonesia) October 10, 2022. Aristyo Rizka Darmawan, The Interpreter. This month, Indonesia and Australia signed an agreement on combatting illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. This is not only a significant step for both countries in the bid to eradicate poor fishing practices, but it is also important for the bilateral relationship. Sustainable catch: better Indonesia-Australia cooperation on fishing
- (Australia – Pacific Islands) October 10, 2022. Meg Keen, The Interpreter. There’s lots of attention given to China pushing into the Pacific and ramping up security engagement, but Beijing’s actions are not the top issue for many in the Pacific Islands. Economic hardship and health are pressing issues occupying the minds of Islanders in the aftermath of Covid, lockdowns and extreme weather events. Australia and Pacific Islands: Polls apart?
- (Egypt) October 7, 2022. Carnegie Middle East Center. Yezid Sayigh is a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, where he leads the program on Civil-Military Relations in Arab States. His work focuses on the comparative political and economic roles of Arab armed forces and nonstate actors, the impact of war on states and societies, and the politics of post-conflict reconstruction and security sector transformation in Arab transitions, and authoritarian resurgence. In mid September, Diwan interviewed Sayigh to ask him about the Egyptian economy, the economic role of the military, and the financial impact of establishing a new administrative capital near Cairo. Financial Risk on the Nile?
- (Europe) October 3, 2022. Luuk Molthof, Clingendael Institute. The EU’s open strategic autonomy agenda is quickly gathering pace, especially in the trade and industrial domain. A host of initiatives and autonomous instruments have been introduced to strengthen the EU’s resilience, reduce its strategic dependencies in key sectors, and protect its industries against economic coercion and unfair trade practices. The EU has generally been careful to ensure that its efforts do not undermine the openness of its economy. However, there is an undeniable tension between the ‘open’ and ‘autonomous’ components of the agenda. Guaranteeing compatibility will require a careful balancing act, contingent on a coherent strategy not only for strengthening the EU’s strategic autonomy but also for fostering and preserving its openness. This policy brief offers concrete suggestions for operationalising the ‘open’ component in the EU’s open strategic autonomy agenda. How to ‘open’ Strategic Autonomy
- (Europe) October 7, 2022. Sergio Carrera, Roberto Cortinovis, Centre for European Policy Studies. Policy debates on solidarity in EU asylum policy have been shaken by large-scale arrivals from Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The unprecedented decision to grant temporary protection to displaced people from Ukraine, with the associated right for beneficiaries to move freely across Member States, has laid bare the structural inadequacies of the EU Dublin system and its compensatory arrangements for responsibility sharing among Member States. The Declaration on a Voluntary Solidarity Mechanism and EU Asylum Policy
- (Europe) October 4, 2022. Christian Egenhofer, Edoardo Righetti, Centre for European Policy Studies. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly made the point that the design of the EU’s electricity market urgently needs reform to address the crisis. Several Member States seem to share that view. From this, one could get the impression that this will solve the EU’s energy woes. It will not. Reform of the electricity market will not solve the EU’s energy crisis
- (Europe – Algeria) October 6, 2022. Andrew Farrand, European Council on Foreign Relations. Russia’s war on Ukraine has reshaped European energy markets and lent new urgency to the EU’s decarbonisation plans, altering the incentives of the bloc’s energy partners. Surging demand for Algeria’s oil and gas exports has temporarily undercut pressure for domestic reform, including in the energy sector. Against the flow: Europe’s role in kickstarting Algeria’s green transition
- (India) October 10, 2022. Arvind Gupta, Vivekananda International Foundation. The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its eighth month, shows no sign of ending. It has entered a new phase with Russia annexing the regions of Donbas and Luhansk. Putin has ordered a mobilisation of citizens to get fresh recruits to fight the war. He has given implicit warnings about the possible use of nuclear weapons if need be. The US and Europe have stepped up their arms supplies to Ukraine. Fresh rounds of sanctions on Russia have been announced. India Should Prepare to Deal with the Fallout of Multiple Global Crises
- (India) October 9, 2022. Harsh V. Pant, Sameer Patil, Observer Research Foundation. After an extended wait of more than nine months, India got a new Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), with the appointment of General Anil Chauhan on September 30, 2022. This post had fallen vacant after the tragic death of General Bipin Rawat in December 2021 in an air crash. Before he was appointed CDS, General Chauhan served as the Military Advisor in the National Security Council Secretariat, which enabled him to work closely with the National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval and cultivate an inter-agency perspective at the apex decision-making of the national security establishment. Challenges Galore for the New CDS
- (Iran) October 9, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Iran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Iran Crisis Update, October 9
- (Israel – Palestine) October 9, 2022. Dore Gold, JCPA. Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s support for the “two-state solution” during his UN General Assembly address re-opened the Israeli debate over the merits of this policy for the State of Israel. Why a Two-State Solution Won’t Work
- (Japan) October 10, 2022. Akira Kawamoto, The Strategist. No one could have foreseen that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s popularity would nosedive so soon after the Liberal Democratic Party triumphed in July’s election to the Upper House of the Japanese Diet. Until recently, Kishida’s government received consistently high approval ratings. But the LDP’s links to a controversial religious group, along with the costly state funeral of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, have shaken Kishida’s political base, endangering Japan’s fragile economic recovery. Japan’s post-Abe trust crisis
- (North Korea) October 7, 2022. Bruce Klingner, The Heritage Foundation. North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch—its first over Japan since 2017—is another escalation in provocations and reflects the regime’s continued defiance of U.N. requirements that it abandon its nuclear and missile programs. Rather than intimidating the United States and its allies, Pyongyang’s action will only buttress ongoing deterrence initiatives. North Korea’s Hwasong-12 Missile Test Over Japan Must Be Punished
- (Russia – Ukraine) October 9, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. This campaign assessment special edition focuses on Russian domestic responses to the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion on October 9 and changes within the Russian chain of command. Ukrainian forces continued to make advances towards Svatove-Kreminna highway on October 9. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9
- (Taiwan) October 9, 2022. Iain Henry, East Asia Forum. During the Trump presidency, it was unsurprising that several US allies in Asia were concerned about the risk of abandonment — the possibility that Washington might not fulfil its alliance commitments. But allies can also fear entrapment — the risk that US actions might raise tensions, or even start a conflict, that allies would rather avoid. Taiwan stirs allies’ fear of entrapment in Asia
- (Ukraine – NATO) October 6, 2022. James Carafano, The Heritage Foundation. NATO is rightly supporting Ukraine’s self-defense against an unprovoked and savage Russian invasion. NATO has also demonstrated both the capability to expand the Alliance expeditiously when requirements for membership are met, as was the case with Finland and Sweden, and the willingness and resolve to defend NATO territory. Further, both “de jure” and “de facto,” NATO is not a party to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and introducing the Alliance into the war is not likely to deescalate the conflict—and could in fact further engage the continent. Addressing Ukraine’s request for membership through the established process is a responsible and prudent course of action that defends NATO’s primary interest: collective self-defense of its members. Factors Affecting Ukraine’s Accession to NATO Membership
